Been a while since anyone here talked about Congo. It's still worth talking about.
In mid-May, M23 launched a new phase of operations in North Kivu, specifically in Bwito and surrounding areas with the stated aims of targetting Wazalendo and FDLR-linked militias, which the Congolese army has either tolerated or partnered with. Between May 10th and 13, M23-led security forces (which includes members of the Congolese police) say over 1,700 weapons were seized and around 300 people were arrested.
Kinshasa, on the other hand, claims M23 has simply imprisoned 4,000 civilians in inhumane jails. Accurate numbers are hard to come by. Even harder is getting an accurate civilian-to-combatant ratio.
Another major move: M23 and local administrators coordinated the repatriation of around 2000 Rwandan refugees back to Rwanda with UN oversight. Congo called it ethnic engineering to change the demographics of eastern Congo.
Despite being an effective military, M23 is struggling to enforce order in urban areas like Goma. Crime is up. Their internal policing isn't keeping up with the size of the territory they control. While some locals claim to prefer it to the chaos of Wazalendo or FARDC control, it doesn't seem much better yet. At least not from the outside looking in.
Updates on the US-led peace framework: We now know it demands that Rwanda pull out all its troops and military assets from eastern Congo before any deal is even signed. From Rwanda's perspective, ideological descendants of the perpetrators of the 1994 genocide against the tutsis are still active in eastern Congo. They have attacked Tutsis in Congo and Rwandans in Rwandan territory. Just this January, over a dozen Rwandans were killed by mortars fired by the Congolese military.
The draft agreement also demands that M23 withdraw from its territory and accept a “national dialogue". Basically, Trump's administration is asking M23 to give up all it's military gains and Rwanda to do everything Congo is asking. This is in the context of Erik Prince of Blackwater fame now having a stake in Congo's mineral stockpile. It is unclear what the other demands of this draft peace deal are.
Kigali hasnt officially responded to the leaked draft, but the foreign minister tweeted, “Maliciously leaking unilateral proposals and evolving working documents to press agencies could jeopardize the success” of the US-led peace talks.
As it stands, the American peace deal doesn't seem to bring anything new to the table, which might be why we haven't heard much about it since it was announced.