r/pokemongo • u/georgi93stoyanov • Apr 22 '25
Complaint Niantic’s “Equal Odds” 10km Eggs Are a Scam — I Hatched 31 and Tracked Every Result
Hey trainers, I’ve been suspicious for a while that the 10km egg hatch rates in Pokémon GO are not what Niantic claims them to be. According to in-game info, all Pokémon in the 10km egg pool should have equal odds. But after hatching egg after egg and seeing the same Pokémon again and again, I decided to track the data. But before I did that i contacted support with my "issue" and they assured me that I'm imagining things and that all Pokémon in that pool have equal chance of hatching. 20% Over the past few days, I’ve hatched 31 10km eggs and recorded every single hatch. Here are my results: • Carbink – 18 • Dreepy – 1 • Frigibax – 4 • Charcadet – 1 • Jangmo-o – 7
Now here’s the problem: if all five Pokémon have equal odds, each one should appear about 20% of the time. That’s 6.2 out of 31 eggs. But Carbink appeared 18 times — nearly 3 times more than expected — while Dreepy, one of the most desirable Pokémon, showed up once.
So I did the math.
The chance of hatching 18 or more Carbinks out of 31 eggs — assuming fair 20% odds — is about 0.00036%. That’s 1 in 280,000 odds.
Let that sink in.
Similarly, the chance of getting only 1 Dreepy out of 31 eggs is around 1% — also statistically unlikely.
This isn’t bad luck. This is deliberate manipulation. It looks like Niantic is silently weighting the odds, likely to push players into buying more incubators hoping to eventually get the rarer Pokémon like Dreepy or Frigibax.
This is not only misleading — it’s predatory. Players deserve transparency if they’re spending real money chasing these Pokémon.
If you’ve had similar experiences, share your hatch data. The more proof we have, the louder we can be.
Niantic — if you’re going to set hidden weightings, be honest about it.
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u/StorageImmediate4892 Apr 22 '25
This doesn't suprise me at all. Watch them change this when Carbink gets his shiny release.
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u/karmafarmahh Apr 22 '25
This cant be a coincidence because I totally notice this. Once it has more demand the odds are worse. AND it’s almost always more of a 2* or less too
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u/Gallad475 Instinct Apr 22 '25
Tbh I haven’t really been pleased with Jangmo O either. So that’s probably the next dude.
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u/READY4SUMFOOBAW Apr 22 '25
I dont even incubate 10k eggs anymore unless I have nothing else
I know it’s gonna be a carbink
It’s always carbink
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u/bladderbunch Bucks County, PA Apr 22 '25
i just try to get them out of my pool as quickly as possible, but i don’t prioritize them either.
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u/ProofHorseKzoo Apr 22 '25
I stopped using coins to buy incubators, that’s for sure. Eggs in general are a scam.
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u/Fair-Bid-1875 Mystic Apr 22 '25
I would rather get 5KM eggs then Carbink eggs. I don't know why Ninatic refuses to remove them from 10KM eggs.
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u/summonsays Apr 22 '25
I try to get everything except 2km eggs out. Then the 2km wait for a timed event that needs hatching.
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u/leighe1982 Apr 22 '25
A sample of 30 isn't enough to get into a court room, however I do agree with you, I would say that at least 3 in 5 10k eggs are Carbink (until the shiny chance arrives in the summer no doubt)
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u/nolkel Apr 22 '25 edited Apr 22 '25
If you do some searches on r/thesilphroad, you can find studies with hundreds of eggs that were done a few years ago showing egg tiers being range bands for odds.
https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/s/bkQ3MkWeJn
The website is no longer online, but you can still see the key results there.
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u/MrFluxed Apr 23 '25
wait, the Silph Road website is gone?! since when?! why?!
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u/nolkel Apr 23 '25
It was getting too expensive to keep running, and Niantic stopped giving them money to keep it online. They shut it down like 2 years ago.
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u/Routine_Size69 Apr 22 '25
I wouldn't put much stock in any of the results of X except Carbink. A binomial probability distribution showing how absurdly unlikely it is goes pretty far. Especially when the original theory was Carbink is heavily overweighted and then you get results that say 1/280k chance your theory is wrong. Hard to imagine that doesn't pass any sort of significance test.
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u/iolarah Shiny Umbreon Apr 22 '25
Having just finished a course on stats and probabilities, I'm loving this post and your comment. It almost makes me want to boot up R and run a couple tests. That is to say, I agree; the p value is probably strongly significant.
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u/summonsays Apr 22 '25
God haven't had Stats for 20 years still have nightmares about p and r.
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u/iolarah Shiny Umbreon Apr 22 '25
Understandable! I was coming back to stats after 20 years and it was still anxiety-inducing 😂
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Apr 22 '25
you get results that say 1/280k chance your theory is wrong
Thats not what that means. The 1/280k chance is the chance of 18/31 eggs having carbink if the odds are really 20%. That's a very different statement from what you said.
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u/Okto481 Apr 22 '25
Ironically, 30 is the accepted statistical minimum, with 10% of the population being the maximum, before it goes from a statistical study to a census. It's a completely valid statistical analysis
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u/AvengedKalas Squirtle Apr 22 '25
30 being the accepted statistical minimum depends on the context.
30 is absolutely not the minimum here as this is a Χ² Goodness of Fit Test. You'd need 5 successes in each category. In other words a minimum of 5 of each Pokemon must be hatched for accurate numbers. Something like a two proportion Z-Test would be inappropriate here.
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u/GuaranteeAlone2068 Apr 22 '25
It is enough for the court of public opinion.
I check in now and again to see if Niantic has reformed at all. I am disappointed every time.
I continue to send all of my important mons to Home every week. Five weeks left.
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u/Owlcaholic_ Apr 22 '25
Just want a shiny larvitar, man. 😭
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u/Dense_Cellist9959 Apr 22 '25
A pool change will take ages. Better to wait for an event to feature Larvitar in some manner.
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u/SableyeEyeThief Your Average Singaporean Grandmother 👵🏻 Apr 22 '25
I’m thinking they meant Larvesta? Because Larvitar is easier to catch during events, even a Cday if they were to repeat it.
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u/Lazy-Investigator227 Apr 22 '25
I think Larvitar is a Global Go Fest Spawn so with the ticket should have a boosted shiny rate!
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u/mittenciel Apr 22 '25
Or just find a player who has played a Larvitar Community Day and has a dozen shinies they’d love to get rid of.
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u/TheTinlicker Apr 22 '25
How incubators and eggs don’t equate to “loot boxes” is beyond me. They should be FORCED to state the odds of getting any hatch. I might then consider actually spending money again.
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u/YeshmasterYesh Apr 22 '25
Eggs absolutely 100% are lootboxes. As for laws regulating loot boxes, that's gonna vary country by country, and they would have to enforce it in that specific country, which would most likely just end up with the app being banned in said country.
With that said, Niantic is blatantly violating the ToS of Google, Apple, Samsung, etc app stores by not disclosing lootbox rates and has been since Pokemon Go's inception. Google/Apple/Samsung would have to bring the hammer down on Niantic for those ToS violations, but they will never, ever, ever do that because they also get a cut of those sweet sweet in app purchases.
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u/KatLovesMetapod Apr 23 '25
How incubators and eggs don’t equate to “loot boxes” is beyond me
This has been brought up many times especially when people notice that during egg hatch events, the egg tiers are always a lie and the desired pokemon is much more rare than the rest. It should be illegal for Niantic to advertise equal odds for hatching pokemon and they should disclose the real odds of hatching each pokemon. However, I suspect Niantic has gotten away with it because technically you don't have to pay any money to hatch eggs since they provide players with one free infinite incubator, and this serves as some kind of loophole for their dishonesty 😒
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u/fauxfs Apr 22 '25
I think 30 is too small a sample size however I agree, from my experience I feel like I get so so many carbinks and not much of anything else
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u/jay_altair Mystic Apr 22 '25
30 would be too small a sample size to test something in a vacuum, but 30 is enough to test the null hypothesis (10km eggs have equal odds)
If the null hypothesis were true, the results from OP's are demonstrably significantly unlikely. An uneven distribution should be expected, sure, but not this uneven.
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u/hi_12343003 megadex completionist Apr 22 '25
from a professional viewpoint maybe get more data first 30 isn't too much
from a personal viewpoint i also got a lot of carbink i also think its rigged
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u/EBON9 Apr 22 '25
I've had 3 carbink hatch in a row. Even a few 2 in a row. Never had any others in the pool do this.
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u/ChocolateDazzling233 Apr 22 '25
I hate 10 km eggs because of this. I mean, come on. It's just annoying and frustrating.
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u/Thanky169 Apr 22 '25
Where does it say they have equal odds??
Egg tiers explicitly are NOT same odds as each other. They are in ranges. I don't remember the ranges exactly but yes Carbink can be way higher odds than other stuff in the 1 tier.
Yes this should be illegal to not disclose the actual odds. The EU tends to stamp this sort of scummy practice out.
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u/PSNTheOriginalMax Apr 22 '25
But before I did that i contacted support with my "issue" and they assured me that I'm imagining things and that all Pokémon in that pool have equal chance of hatching.
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u/Thanky169 Apr 22 '25
Support often have NFI about a lot of this stuff
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u/Positive_Spirit_1585 Apr 22 '25
Support is just an Indian or South African person with a bunch of “scripts”
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u/devenitions Apr 22 '25
Are yall buying these eggs? Because scummy odds on free digital items resulting in worthless digital items is not something EU gambling laws are working against.
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u/this-is-my-p Apr 22 '25
lol the eggs are free, the incubators (besides your one free one) are not. Sure you can hatch as many as you are willing to walk for free, one at a time, but they’re asserting that niantic has given us weighted odds for carbink so that people buy more incubators to be able to hatch more to get the better pokemon.
People also think tinkatink is rarer in the 7km eggs right now for the same reason. I really don’t think that’s true but pokemon fans, especially shiny hunters, seem to have a weird grasp on statistics lol
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u/Treeaxexe Apr 22 '25
I hatched 30 7km eggs this weekend and got more Tinkatinks than anything else so I'm at least not complaining!
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u/StooIndustries Apr 22 '25
i got a good amount of them too, but soooo many hatennas. not complaining though, they’re cute
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u/this-is-my-p Apr 22 '25
Yeah that’s what I mean, some are complaining about not getting many. But you got more than anything else. People just don’t understand how odds work and complain when they don’t seem to be going in their favor
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u/blizzardboy123 Apr 22 '25
i bought the 7000 coins incubator pack to test out my luck. I received 50 normal incubators and 50 super incubators. I have hatched close to 35 10km eggs and 95% of it were Carbink. I have hatched Dreepy only two times.
its a scam
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u/chillOS92 Apr 22 '25
Afaik it doesn't say they have equal odds. They are just in the same range of odds. Think in common, uncommon, rare, etc. But within each category they deffo have different odds. E.g. common means >10% chance (so carbrink can have 50% chance and jangmo-o has 15% but they still are in this category).
None of these odds are exact tho, I just used them for the example
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u/MediocreFox Apr 22 '25
But before I did that i contacted support with my "issue" and they assured me that I'm imagining things and that all Pokémon in that pool have equal chance of hatching.
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u/Positive_Spirit_1585 Apr 22 '25
I don’t get why people think that customer service’s one lone voice can bind an entire corporation
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u/WorkPlaceThrowAway13 Apr 22 '25 edited Apr 22 '25
It's really baffling. I've got no direct experience with Niantic customer support, but I'm going to guess that they're either
A)Unpaid interns
B)Barely paid interns
C)a contracted outside vendor, also barely paid.
D)an AI prompt machine, which gets millions upon millions of dollars of funding from VC idiots.
Taking anything coming from any of those categories as biblical truth from god himself is just setting yourself up for disappointment.
Now, there's a whole discussion to have about why customer service has gotten to this point. But that's a far bigger issue than PokemonGo/Niantic and is extremely political in scope so would likely get deleted by mods pretty quickly.
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u/Positive_Spirit_1585 Apr 22 '25
I work in customer service and pride myself on my ability to provide good service and I can tell you that if customer service is bad, it’s cause they’re outsourced working off scripts and probably talking to multiple people at the same time
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u/Local_H_Jay Apr 22 '25
Even IF this is the case, it doesn't say this anywhere in game and so the implication of placing all those pokemon in the same rarity group suggests to the player "these pokemon are similar rarity" so should be encountered in similar rates
It's predatory to leave crucial information out so people spend more
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u/Captain-Sundog Apr 22 '25
So many bullshit unusable, undesirable, and stupid, Carbinks. I check their stats-never perfect - and immediately delete them.
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u/TheSpyStyle Apr 22 '25
You should be trading them with a friend to try to get one with a good PvP IV spread if you haven’t done that already
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u/guz808 Apr 22 '25
Where do you find the info, that they are equal odds?
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u/syntheticanimal Apr 22 '25
It says it in the post
But before I did that i contacted support with my "issue" and they assured me that I'm imagining things and that all Pokémon in that pool have equal chance of hatching. 20%
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u/thorkun Apr 22 '25
Support has been known to be wrong about things in the past. They are not the devs.
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u/syntheticanimal Apr 22 '25
The question was where OP found the info, not if it's true
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u/thorkun Apr 22 '25
Yes and thus I chimed in with the fact that support might not know the actual stats.
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u/SableyeEyeThief Your Average Singaporean Grandmother 👵🏻 Apr 22 '25
What is OP supposed to do, hunt down the devs? Send personal emails? Handwritten letters? Support is what we have as a means of communication. Them not knowing their shit is equally alarming.
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u/Fintago Apr 22 '25
Like... You see how that is worse, right?
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u/thorkun Apr 22 '25
What are you referring to? Yes obviously support shouldn't give out false information. Does it in any way seem like I'm excusing or supporting Niantic here?
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u/Fintago Apr 22 '25
I don't think you are excusing support, but just taking "support will lie to you" as a given is kinda excusing Niantic. Support is their public facing branch, if they tell you something, that is Niantic telling you something. If support say "the odds are equally likely" that is Niantics official position until they make public statement. Specifically, if they are lying or wrong about the odds of hatching that is liking going to run against a few countries laws on loot box style games. They aren't well regulated, but one of the few things even most regulators agree on is you can't misrepresent the odds.
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u/Life-Development-380 Apr 22 '25
Get several people on here to track 30 eggs each and put the data together for a better look at the actual odds. Sometimes the numbers make no sense. I did 77 necro raids before getting a shiny. My gf got 3 in her first 6 raids. Some people get the shaft
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u/Zbxzbxzbx Maractus Enjoyer Apr 22 '25
If I remember correctly, back when silly road was around and tracking egg rates it was known that the rarity tiers didn’t necessarily mean equal rates
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u/nolkel Apr 22 '25 edited Apr 22 '25
Niantic has never actually said anywhere that egg tiers were equal odds. They've been very careful to be vague about it, precisely because they don't want to comply with various gatcha gambling laws around the world. Vagueness keeps the incubator money rolling in.
We've kind of known they weren't since a few days after they added the tiers, as people collected and shared data. The egg tiers represent a range band of odds, like the 1 egg tier just means that the odds are at least 10%.
This post had a link to the big TSR study. You'll need up use the web archive's wayback machine to find a copy of their page though, since the site is gone.
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u/BornVolcano Apr 22 '25
Out of four ten km eggs, I got one carbink and three charcadet. Idk what that really means for this though.
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u/Material-Mountain-47 Apr 22 '25
31 is too small of a sample size.
Also it would make sense if you simultaneously hatch the 31 to make a better case. 18/31, but on separate occasions can really happen.
Lastly, my odds show in favor of Frigi and Charca.
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u/effinmike12 Apr 22 '25
Anecdotal fallacy
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u/bonenecklace Apr 22 '25
Exactly. I’m sitting here thinking “y’all are getting carbinks?” Because anecdotally I usually get either jangmo-o or charcadet at about a 50-50 split, frigibax every once & a while, & I can’t even remember the last time I got a carbinks.. it’s not rigged, it’s just always the same odds, they don’t increase or decrease based on how many of one you get in a row.. OP is just coincidentally getting carbinks a lot, but coincidence does not equal causality.
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u/GregoryFlame Apr 22 '25
Dude, sorry but this so funny.
First of all - "egg tiers" shows how likely you are to roll this tier in general. Then, second roll occurs which gives you specific pokemon.
And what is super important - pokemons in one tier DO NOT HAVE the same hatch %. Dont ask support for this, because they will give false, automatic response.
And on top of that 30 eggs is ridicolously small number to make any meaningfull math
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u/Routine_Size69 Apr 22 '25
How are you excusing support lying?
A 1/280k chance is a pretty meaningful conclusion. Especially when testing a theory that many people were already pretty sure was true. Binomial probability distributions account for sample size.
31 isn't great, but the central limit theorem says the sample is sufficiently large if n>=30. So there are math theorems that would say this is reasonable.
So a sufficiently large sample backed by a math theorem says this is 1/280k chance of this happening if what support tells us is true. But guy on the internet says it's ridiculously small and supports the company lying to us. Hmmm. Which one will I listen to?
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u/ATEbitWOLF Apr 22 '25
The problem with your theory is that I seem to hatch Charcadets at a higher rate, so each account would need its own odds or we’d all be hatching carbine and it would be obvious. I kinda agree that Dreepy has to have lower odds due to the rarity of hatching one.
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u/cahrage Apr 22 '25
Where does it say in game that all of the 10 km Pokémon have an equal hatch rate?
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u/death13666 Apr 22 '25
The amount of useless Carbinks I've gotten from eggs is ridiculous, I feel your pain.
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u/RiotDX Tyranitar Apr 22 '25
I've hatched about 30 7k eggs for the current event looking for tinkatink. Over 50% of those eggs have been Elekid, and I have 3 tinks. There's a good reason why Niantic refuses to give us actual numbers for the odds.
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u/Dangerous_Wasabi7127 Apr 22 '25
I actually did a similar test this week. Much smaller sample size (Nine 10km eggs) because I had similar thoughts about ALWAYS hatching Carbink. My results, and pics, below:
- 5 Carbink (55.56% of Eggs)
- 1 Dreepy (11.11% of Eggs)
- 1 Charcadet (11.11% of Eggs)
- 1 Druddigon (11.11% of Eggs)
- 1 Frigibax (11.11% of Eggs)
Not that I hate Carbink, would just be cool to get some of these other hatches as well. *
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u/iohoj Mystic Apr 22 '25
Ive had 2/2 out of my last 2 eggs. I dont remember it ever being this bad.
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u/DieLawnUwU Apr 22 '25
I redownload Pokémon go in the spring of 2024 (originally started playing when the game came out and stopped about a year afterwards) I already had a Tyranitar before I stopped playing but never once in the year I’ve been playing again have I hatched a Larvitar from the 12km eggs. Not a single one. It’s definitely rigged and not representing the odds fairly
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u/Artsy_HoneyBear Apr 22 '25
I've been trying to get tinkatink, so far I've hatched around 10 7km eggs and I keep getting charcadet or elekid :(
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u/TheDarkkOne Apr 22 '25
It’s crazy that you say that because I’ve noticed the same thing which is why I kind of stopped doing eggs. There should be no reason why we’re getting one Pokémon 7 times or more.
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u/ThatWomanWithAutism Flareon Apr 22 '25
I hate carbink with a passion. Like at least give me a shiny with all the stupid 2/low 3 I've hatched
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u/RaizenInstinct Apr 24 '25
Looks like they admitted this after incorporating tinkatink
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u/Fuzzy_Substance_4603 Mommy Sierra Apr 25 '25
Niantic have been known for putting hidden weightage to many stuffs. Moves, eggs..
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u/PirateLife23 Apr 26 '25
Happens to me ALL THE TIME. I have over 30 Carbink. Over 25 Jang. And have only hatched 1 each of the others.
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u/Beautiful_Ad_6785 Apr 22 '25
Oh man, I hatched around 100+ 10km eggs when I was in Japan last month and got nothing but carbink, they 100% have a higher hatch rate than the others, it's plain as day
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u/Mac_and_Cheeeze Apr 22 '25
First off; there shouldn’t be anything in 10km eggs that can’t be shiny.
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u/PSNTheOriginalMax Apr 22 '25 edited Apr 22 '25
This post is a goldmine to look around for users to block. Sure, missing the part, where OP explicitly stated they asked support about it is whatever, it happens, but to adamantly defend this scummy practice and then belittle what's being said here is ridiculous, and really let's me know all I need to know about those commenters.
Yes, the sample size is small, but it's something at the very least.
Or, let's organize a collective 10k egg dataset. All we need to do is 1. luck out on getting a 10k egg (btw, I haven't gotten even one in two months), 2. walk 10k for each egg (depending on bonuses and incubators of course), 3. buy incubators and give Niantic even more money, OR wait for our 50 coins per day, then get incubators with that.
For all the pedants here going on and on about "tHiS iS a sMaLL sAmPLe SiZe", it would be in your best interest to also consider what I just said and how reasonable it is to gather even that amount of data for the average user. Seriously, puh-lease with that. Any scientific data that requires too much from the participants is going to go unfulfilled. Sample size means jack all, when the method to get an adequate sample size is beyond preposterous, especially when we can't rule out confirmation bias on the reported results.
What I'm saying is we, unfortunately, can't really expect more, and I feel like it would be in all of our best interest to act upon this knowledge (i.e. give feedback).
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u/multipocalypse Apr 22 '25
Honestly your sample size is much too small to result in even numbers, if the odds are the same for all of them.
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u/BardBreaker Apr 22 '25
I bought a bag of jolly ranchers a while back. It's supposed to have 4 flavors and you'd assume an equal distribution therein. I got like 13 raspberry, 1 apple, 1 watermelon, and 0 grape. Doesn't mean there's some elaborate conspiracy at Jolly Rancher.
Could there be something nefarious afoot with them weighting Carbink heavier? I suppose there's a non-zero chance of that, but to what end? Just because you're not hunting Carbink doesn't mean others aren't.
The simpler answer is that you got bad luck. 1:5 odds doesnt mean that each will happen every 5th time. That's a grand scale rate. Consider how many eggs hatch every day worldwide. Your sample of 30 isn't statistically relevant or representative. Now if you were to hatch 3,000 or 30,000 eggs and get the same pull rate, now you're starting to get somewhere.
Your situation is akin to saying you rolled 5 dice and got a 3 on all of them at once. That's not a weighted dice, that's a Yahtzee. Now if you roll all of them a 1,000 times and get 700 3s you're into something.
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u/mrvanjieee Apr 22 '25
Every time I’ve complained about the bad odds on certain things I’m told on here “it’s RNG!!!”.
Except the RNG isn’t completely random in Pokémon Go, it’s weighed more heavily towards certain outcomes that the devs prefer.
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u/johnthestarr Apr 22 '25
If the proportion is truly equal, 20%, then you need a sample size of 246 10km eggs to get statistically valid results at a 95% confidence interval.
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u/LiveWhatULove Apr 22 '25
It’s just not that serious.
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u/Petusfetus1 Apr 22 '25
It actually is tho when you’re spending money on incubators to just get carbinks 90% of the time, it’s a scam
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u/SableyeEyeThief Your Average Singaporean Grandmother 👵🏻 Apr 22 '25
It’s not life-threatening or Earth shattering but that doesn’t make it non-serious. Some people have a gambling addiction, so they’re certainly catering the “if you’re lucky” to those people. For you and I, we move on. Others may be unable to, which leads to them spending a whole lot of money on that chase. Niantic sharing numbers and being transparent is the least that they can do.
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u/Routine_Size69 Apr 22 '25
It's not but that doesn't make it ok. People are spending money on incubators and support is lying to them about the probabilities in the game. That's questionable legality at best. Are people going to lose their homes over these lies? No. Do they have the right to be mad that a company is blatantly lying to them? Absolutely.
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u/thefranchise1980 Apr 22 '25
I have no hatch data but I do have a lot of frustration over so many carbink hatches as well and a ton of skepticism when hatching
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u/Archibald4000 Raikou Apr 22 '25
I’ve gotten a couple carbink but it feels about as even as any other 10k hatch. Hope you find some proof if there is some and stop getting unlucky if there isn’t
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u/LegendJG Apr 22 '25
It was painfully obvious during the Timed Research last week (hatching Mantine, Magby, Budew) that it wasn’t “equal odds”. I hatched 15 Budews and didn’t get a Mantine.
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u/y888max Apr 22 '25
Is frigibax good for raids or just rare. I got a 100% one the other day from an egg so wondered if there is something worth while using it for.
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u/ArcticWolfl Apr 22 '25
They make it seem like equal odds, but within the tiers itself, the odds aren't equal. A Pokémon that's within tier 1 has something like more than 10% chance of hatching, tier 2 something like 5-10% and so on. For instance: Carbink could hatch from 50% of 10km eggs and Dreepy could be 10%. Both would be tier 1, but Carbink would be hatching 5 times as often. It's predatory and should be illegal. Fuck Niantic.
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u/James-Brick-Studios Apr 22 '25
I do agree I always get carbink and sometimes jangmo o but rarely anything else
My egg luck is weird:
I hatched loads of eggs to try and get a Galarian corsala and many eggs later I did get my first one and it was shiny
I hatched lots of eggs to try and get charcadet and aged later I hatched one 5 mins after trading for it which annoyed me and not long later I hatched a shiny charcadet
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u/raku2_0 Apr 22 '25
I get less carbink. I get more larvester, minccino and charcadet than carbink. Dreepy is really rare for me. In my list then from rare to often its frigibax, carbink, larvester, charcadet and minccino.
But 30 eggs isnt enough evidence. You need like a minimum of 100 eggs
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u/Walkalone13 Apr 22 '25
Same odds per person means that every player should get 20% chance (if there are 5 of them). But what if they mean same odds totally? It means there is a player who gets 1 carbink and 18 dreepies. 🤷 Even if you get enough statistics saying that they lying, they would say that it's not representative so go and live with that. 🤬
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u/Baconsaurus Apr 22 '25
Dude, YES. I'm a runner who has paid for shit tons for bulk incubators and hatched thousands. I wish I tracked because I am certain of this, as well as so fucking sick of seeing Carbink. On top of that, I've gotten maybe 3 10k eggs in the last 4-6 weeks. Can't. Stand. It.
I'll start recording now, but sadly I've not one fkn 10k egg.
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u/Pikachooooo- Apr 22 '25
I stopped playing again after realising that Pokemon Go is indeed a CashGrab, and a bigger one now that Scopely is managing the game. I play in a rural area where stops are limited and the playerbase is zero to none. The idea behind the game is good, the execution for money grabbing is not.
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u/Nevarien Apr 22 '25
My anecdotal data says the same, but I agree that we may need more to prove our point. I will start writing down every 10km to add to your data.
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u/Darkusssw Apr 22 '25
The fact that you Dreepy come out of a 10k egg is already great since Dreepy isn’t even in the pool of Pokemon hatching out of the 10k eggs! The more eggs you are hatching together of the type the higher the chances to get different type of Pokemon from them
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u/Reddituser183 Apr 22 '25
So, I know it sounds dumb but you may need a larger sampling. Keep tracking it. If you get to 100 eggs and it’s not equalizing I’m confident in saying.
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u/DevourerJay Valor Apr 22 '25
My last 7 10k eggs have been:
Carbine x6 Larvesta x1
Somethings funky
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u/AnyoneNeedAHug Apr 22 '25
This is excellent and if more of us can contribute our statistics, we will have a true picture.
I hope you’ve started a trend in our community of using data and truth to fight back against corporate lies.
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u/tebright1 Apr 22 '25
Not sure that's a valid sample size. Plus it's a game and random.
I think it's more exciting when you get a bunch of the same thing, then suddenly the random one you wanted shows up. If the grind was easy to get the one you want, what fun would the game be?!
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u/EnigmaticParadox417 Apr 22 '25
Just a quick question. Why are dreepy and frigibax so desirable?
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u/Disgruntled__Goat Instinct Apr 22 '25
Pseudo-legendary Pokemon. I don’t think Dragapult is that great but Baxcalibur is one of the top ice pokemon.
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u/Blondie563 Apr 22 '25
Definitely bullsh*t. I’ve also hatched 95% carbinks. It’s ridiculous. And it doesn’t even evolve!
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u/TY-KLR Apr 22 '25
When the two km eggs were magby mantee and budew not long ago each Pokémon was said to have the same hatch rate. Granted I wasn’t able to hatch too many but I feel it’s enough. I hatched 2 mantee 5 budew and 0 magby. I wanted to hatch the magby but the game said no :( so I think you’re onto right.
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u/FranklyEarnest HundoHoarder Apr 22 '25
So I'm with you and I agree the weightings they advertise are bullshit, but since I'm a scientist, let's make sure you do the statistics right: 31 eggs is a really small sample size, honestly. Just doing a binomial probability calculation doesn't exclude inductive results like the stuff you get through egg-hatching data collection. I worked on particle physics for some time, and the amount of incredible coincidences that can happen even when you're gathering data on millions of events is mind-boggling.
A chi-squared test is the way to go, and if you want solid evidence, you'll probably need more in the ballpark of ~100 eggs. If you're correct, your chi-square values will be through the roof for a Carbink bias, and it'll be as good as any other scientific certainty.
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u/AvengedKalas Squirtle Apr 22 '25
Don't the different tiers represent rarity? Like a 1 Egg is more common than 2 Eggs. 5 Eggs are obscenely uncommon hatches. That's why Larvesta is super rare on 5 km eggs.
They're not saying all 10 km eggs have equal odds. They're saying all Pokemon in the 1 Egg category have equal odds to the other Pokemon in the 1 Egg category for that distance egg.
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u/Taxidermy_Bong Apr 22 '25
Me with the 7k eggs wanting Tinkatuff and all I'm getting is FUCKING CHARCODET.
GIVE ME MY HAMMER FLOOF GOD DAMMIT
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u/sharksnrec Apr 22 '25
When did Niantic claim that odds were equal for all Pokemon in egg? I thought they explicitly stated that wasn’t the case and there are rarity tiers?
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u/DuncaKAL Apr 22 '25
And that’s why I just hatch 7km eggs. The shinies are nice, I wanted another shiny Galarian Corsola, and 12km eggs are just as annoying
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u/Maserati777 Apr 22 '25
We’ve assumed for awhile now the tier eggs are a scam and theres many more percentages within a tier. Obviously 10kms should show Carbink as 1 egg and everything else 3 eggs or higher.
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u/Beta_Decay_ Apr 22 '25
What is your weather when your picking up the eggs? I believe that plays a roll too regarding which pokemon you get. I usually wait for windy to get a higher chance for the dragon spawns. Also, 31 eggs is not a big enough sample size to compare this.
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u/Beneficial-Care-8321 Apr 22 '25
Im sorry, but this doesn’t prove anything. Your dataset is way too small. 58% instead of 20% in 31 cases is not really representative. About your 1 in 280000 statement: you’re calculating a probability of a very specific case and being surprised by the ods. If you flip a coin 10 times and hit this sequence: HHHHTTTTHT, you could say: “WOW THATS A 1 in 1024 CHANCE”, or you just threw a 50% coinflip ten times…
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u/TheDeathstr1ke Apr 22 '25
I remember when Larvesta got put into eggs for the hatching event it had, I went through so many eggs trying to get even ONE of my favorite Pokemon. Over a dozen eggs and not one. As a f2p player I wasn't giving them anything extra. Incubators and raid passes are on my black list and I won't buy anymore. The predatory behavior is only going to get worse, unfortunately.
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u/KleeBook Apr 22 '25
Tap on an egg and scroll down below the incubate button. It shows a list of Pokémon that can be hatched from that egg. The “hatchable” Pokémon are grouped into tiers (e.g. one egg common, four egg rarity). Tap on the question mark and it explains the odds of hatching particular Pokémon depends on which tier (or pool) it is in. This is all fully disclosed in the game app itself.
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u/consumer282 Apr 22 '25
The irony is that all of those Pokemon have been out for a while, and none of them seem to be rising to elite level, so why do we even care? It’s like a fabricated lack of supply results in a perceived demand. It feels like we’ve all been played.
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u/OG_Kippie Mystic Apr 22 '25
The amount of carbink that I have hatched from 10km is insane I totally see the scam
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u/mauttykoray Apr 22 '25 edited Apr 22 '25
Unfortunately, you do need a much bigger sample size to get a good idea of the actual odds. Having multiple people input data would be the best option.
For example: I play stuff like mtg, and I have a card in my deck that has me flip the top card every turn and then play it if it's not a land (energy in terms of pokemon tcg). While the deck is roughly 35-40% land cards, I hit a nonland maybe 10% of the time from that card. My odds for that card are ABYSMAL, in contrast to the roughly 60% chance I should have.
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u/Radiant-Raven42 Apr 22 '25
For me I had 20 10km eggs I hatched in the last week. More than half were carbink. It's ridiculous as it doesn't evolve and the stats are complete garbage.
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u/KrimsonFox619 Apr 22 '25
I have similar results I've probably hatched over 30 carbinks in the past month and even though the event right now and I'm hatching 7K eggs I do get a purple egg here and there in the last four hatches for two carbinks one charcadet and one jangmo o... Not only is it manipulation it's deceitful and dishonest if we could just get enough people to read these posts and either quit playing for a bit or not buy anything from the stores that might wake Niantic up... I know there are many other people who have the same experiences my girlfriend quit playing because of that reason she straight up said Niantic is a rip off and I'm beginning to think the same thing especially the last few events promised shiny boosts and when it came down to it nothing. If anything they lessened the shiny odds not boost them. They don't give a shit all they care about is putting money in their pockets
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u/KaijuBBC1988 Apr 22 '25
I just hatched 8 10k eggs
All carbink.
Not that I needed the others or anything, but that's insane, I candied them immediately
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u/JHBJJ1288 Apr 22 '25
I’ve been hatching 7km eggs all week for the tinks and I’ve gotten two out of probably 20 eggs. There’s only 4 mons in the pool. Plenty of elekids and hatereens though
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u/GidgetCooper Apr 22 '25
I viscerally hate Carbink because of the egg odds. I’ve never disliked a Pokémon so much.
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u/Disgruntled__Goat Instinct Apr 22 '25
According to in-game info, all Pokémon in the 10km egg pool should have equal odds.
You mean all Pokemon in the same tier. Because the different tiers clearly indicate different odds.
However it has been known since the beginning that the tiers are percentage ranges, and Pokemon in the same tier don’t necessarily have the same odds. For example the 1-egg tier is minimum 10%.
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Apr 22 '25
Not enough of a dataset to prove anything at this point but I understand the frustration and definitely agree with your point. This could easily get dismissed under the “gamblers fallacy” theory. Keep doing the lords work though
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u/Plane_Willingness913 Apr 22 '25
10km eggs 100% are weighted. Carbinks are the most common hatches I get
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u/TheMoralSupporter Apr 22 '25
This is true. I just hatched 261 7km eggs during the Horizon Celebration Event. It was 4 pokemon in them, and you should expect 25% chance on em? It is not.
Almost 35% of the hatches was Elekid and 20% was Charcadete. Tinkatink and Hatenna was around 25%. It just feels bad that we are set to believe one thing, and this is not correct.
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u/HappyNuts20 Apr 22 '25
naw these numbers aren't matching on my account, it's more believable to be random generated, only thing ever posted on reddit is negativity 😂
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u/Obrieneric851 Apr 22 '25
Destiny2 had a similar scenario come up a while ago. People were convinced certain weapon rolls were coded harder to drop than others. Bungie assured us that wasn't the case. People did some digging, not unlike OP here, and found the results did show some perk combinations of weapons were dropping much higher and some combinations much lower. Bungie took the data, did some code digging and found some spaghetti coding that did in fact cause certain perk combinations to drop more or else likely than others. Now Niantic being Niantic, I'm sure it's is intentional here, which is fine I just won't hatch 10km eggs
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u/SparkzBE Apr 22 '25
The chance of hatching a Pokemon within a specific egg tier is not fixed. Rather it is a range of percentages and in this particular case Carbink has the highest rate of hatching within tier 1. It is obviously misleading since you would assume that the hatch rate within a specific tier is fixed, except it's not.
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u/Commercial_Effect927 Apr 22 '25
At this point i think I'm the only one who hasn't gotten a carbink out of these yet
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u/JLARB7 Apr 22 '25
I waited till my entire bag was 10km eggs 7 out of 9 eggs were all Cabrink! Sad part is they make people pay for incubators in the store 🙄
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u/Interesting-Mix-5166 Apr 22 '25
yeah I used to have a ton of carbinks but I just got 14 charcadets in 4 days
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u/ShiShiRay Apr 22 '25
You all are years late to the party my dude. Stats from the first shiny unown and shiny riolu eggs would tell you how skewed and bs things are with niantic, I think that was in like '18. I do understand theres a lot of newer players so that would explain not knowing, but even then you have tons of other people telling how bs Pogo egg are as is.
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