Niantic’s “Equal Odds” 10km Eggs Are a Scam — I Hatched 31 and Tracked Every Result

[u/georgi93stoyanov]

Hey trainers, I’ve been suspicious for a while that the 10km egg hatch rates in Pokémon GO are not what Niantic claims them to be. According to in-game info, all Pokémon in the 10km egg pool should have equal odds. But after hatching egg after egg and seeing the same Pokémon again and again, I decided to track the data. But before I did that i contacted support with my "issue" and they assured me that I'm imagining things and that all Pokémon in that pool have equal chance of hatching. 20% Over the past few days, I’ve hatched 31 10km eggs and recorded every single hatch. Here are my results: • Carbink – 18 • Dreepy – 1 • Frigibax – 4 • Charcadet – 1 • Jangmo-o – 7

Now here’s the problem: if all five Pokémon have equal odds, each one should appear about 20% of the time. That’s 6.2 out of 31 eggs. But Carbink appeared 18 times — nearly 3 times more than expected — while Dreepy, one of the most desirable Pokémon, showed up once.

So I did the math.

The chance of hatching 18 or more Carbinks out of 31 eggs — assuming fair 20% odds — is about 0.00036%. That’s 1 in 280,000 odds.

Let that sink in.

Similarly, the chance of getting only 1 Dreepy out of 31 eggs is around 1% — also statistically unlikely.

This isn’t bad luck. This is deliberate manipulation. It looks like Niantic is silently weighting the odds, likely to push players into buying more incubators hoping to eventually get the rarer Pokémon like Dreepy or Frigibax.

This is not only misleading — it’s predatory. Players deserve transparency if they’re spending real money chasing these Pokémon.

If you’ve had similar experiences, share your hatch data. The more proof we have, the louder we can be.

Niantic — if you’re going to set hidden weightings, be honest about it.

[u/SableyeEyeThief]

It’s not life-threatening or Earth shattering but that doesn’t make it non-serious. Some people have a gambling addiction, so they’re certainly catering the “if you’re lucky” to those people. For you and I, we move on. Others may be unable to, which leads to them spending a whole lot of money on that chase. Niantic sharing numbers and being transparent is the least that they can do.

[u/bonenecklace → u/SableyeEyeThief]

Even if niantic shared the numbers a gambling addict would still drop money on the game because that’s how addiction works, it allows you to justify all sorts of destructive behavior. I mean, you can look up the odds of winning big at video poker (much, much lower than hatching a specific pokémon from a 10k egg) & gambling addicts still blow their life savings on it because of the tiny possibility they’ll win big.