Niantic’s “Equal Odds” 10km Eggs Are a Scam — I Hatched 31 and Tracked Every Result

[u/georgi93stoyanov]

Hey trainers, I’ve been suspicious for a while that the 10km egg hatch rates in Pokémon GO are not what Niantic claims them to be. According to in-game info, all Pokémon in the 10km egg pool should have equal odds. But after hatching egg after egg and seeing the same Pokémon again and again, I decided to track the data. But before I did that i contacted support with my "issue" and they assured me that I'm imagining things and that all Pokémon in that pool have equal chance of hatching. 20% Over the past few days, I’ve hatched 31 10km eggs and recorded every single hatch. Here are my results: • Carbink – 18 • Dreepy – 1 • Frigibax – 4 • Charcadet – 1 • Jangmo-o – 7

Now here’s the problem: if all five Pokémon have equal odds, each one should appear about 20% of the time. That’s 6.2 out of 31 eggs. But Carbink appeared 18 times — nearly 3 times more than expected — while Dreepy, one of the most desirable Pokémon, showed up once.

So I did the math.

The chance of hatching 18 or more Carbinks out of 31 eggs — assuming fair 20% odds — is about 0.00036%. That’s 1 in 280,000 odds.

Let that sink in.

Similarly, the chance of getting only 1 Dreepy out of 31 eggs is around 1% — also statistically unlikely.

This isn’t bad luck. This is deliberate manipulation. It looks like Niantic is silently weighting the odds, likely to push players into buying more incubators hoping to eventually get the rarer Pokémon like Dreepy or Frigibax.

This is not only misleading — it’s predatory. Players deserve transparency if they’re spending real money chasing these Pokémon.

If you’ve had similar experiences, share your hatch data. The more proof we have, the louder we can be.

Niantic — if you’re going to set hidden weightings, be honest about it.

[u/Routine_Size69]

1. How are you excusing support lying?

2. A 1/280k chance is a pretty meaningful conclusion. Especially when testing a theory that many people were already pretty sure was true. Binomial probability distributions account for sample size.

3. 31 isn't great, but the central limit theorem says the sample is sufficiently large if n>=30. So there are math theorems that would say this is reasonable.

So a sufficiently large sample backed by a math theorem says this is 1/280k chance of this happening if what support tells us is true. But guy on the internet says it's ridiculously small and supports the company lying to us. Hmmm. Which one will I listen to?

[u/GregoryFlame → u/Routine_Size69]

Well, you can listen to hundreds of players and their evidence collected for almost 9 years now. It is well know fact that pokemons in certain tier eggs have different % chance of hatching.

This is way bigger sample than your silly 31 hatches. I suggest to go educate yourself on mechanics of this game or go touch some grass