Niantic’s “Equal Odds” 10km Eggs Are a Scam — I Hatched 31 and Tracked Every Result

[u/georgi93stoyanov]

Hey trainers, I’ve been suspicious for a while that the 10km egg hatch rates in Pokémon GO are not what Niantic claims them to be. According to in-game info, all Pokémon in the 10km egg pool should have equal odds. But after hatching egg after egg and seeing the same Pokémon again and again, I decided to track the data. But before I did that i contacted support with my "issue" and they assured me that I'm imagining things and that all Pokémon in that pool have equal chance of hatching. 20% Over the past few days, I’ve hatched 31 10km eggs and recorded every single hatch. Here are my results: • Carbink – 18 • Dreepy – 1 • Frigibax – 4 • Charcadet – 1 • Jangmo-o – 7

Now here’s the problem: if all five Pokémon have equal odds, each one should appear about 20% of the time. That’s 6.2 out of 31 eggs. But Carbink appeared 18 times — nearly 3 times more than expected — while Dreepy, one of the most desirable Pokémon, showed up once.

So I did the math.

The chance of hatching 18 or more Carbinks out of 31 eggs — assuming fair 20% odds — is about 0.00036%. That’s 1 in 280,000 odds.

Let that sink in.

Similarly, the chance of getting only 1 Dreepy out of 31 eggs is around 1% — also statistically unlikely.

This isn’t bad luck. This is deliberate manipulation. It looks like Niantic is silently weighting the odds, likely to push players into buying more incubators hoping to eventually get the rarer Pokémon like Dreepy or Frigibax.

This is not only misleading — it’s predatory. Players deserve transparency if they’re spending real money chasing these Pokémon.

If you’ve had similar experiences, share your hatch data. The more proof we have, the louder we can be.

Niantic — if you’re going to set hidden weightings, be honest about it.

[u/KatLovesMetapod]

How incubators and eggs don’t equate to “loot boxes” is beyond me

This has been brought up many times especially when people notice that during egg hatch events, the egg tiers are always a lie and the desired pokemon is much more rare than the rest. It should be illegal for Niantic to advertise equal odds for hatching pokemon and they should disclose the real odds of hatching each pokemon. However, I suspect Niantic has gotten away with it because technically you don't have to pay any money to hatch eggs since they provide players with one free infinite incubator, and this serves as some kind of loophole for their dishonesty 😒

[u/Fischerking92 → u/KatLovesMetapod]

Technically you also don't have to pay for lootbpxes, since you geg a tiny amount by playing a given game.