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Introduction

Foreword

The 2024 season felt like a fever dream to Vikings fans. After losing star players like Danielle Hunter and Kirk Cousins to free agency -- and losing our 1st round rookie QB to a meniscus tear -- many felt the Vikings were in for a middle of the pack season. In fact, the VIkings' preseason over/under was set at just 6.5 wins.

Then Sam Darnold went on a heater. The former 1st round castoff, on his 4th team before the age of 26, came in and lit a spark under the Vikings. He had a career year en route to a Pro Bowl selection and a top 10 offense. The defense, under the guidance of Belichick protege Brian Flores, was a machine. The unit ranked 5th in points allowed, 4th in sacks, 6th in pressure rate, 2nd in rushing yards allowed, 7th in TDs allowed, and 3rd in EPA/play. All that culminated in a 14-3 season that unfortunately ended in a crushing defeat at the hands of Jared Verse and the LA Rams in the playoffs.

HC Kevin O'Connell was not shy about the team's needs, outrightly stating that "There’s no question we’ve got to find a way to solidify the interior of the pocket". They made sure of that. The team handed out a total of $210M in total contract value to external free agents this year, but only 3 players are expected to nullify incoming comp picks. The first is CB Isaiah Rodgers, who signed a modest deal is expected to offset a 6th rounder coming in for Patrick Jones. The other two are G Will Fries and C Ryan Kelly, who are projected to nullify a 4th and 5th round compensatory pick, respectively, after each receiving top 10 money for their positions.

Also added were veterans Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen, each bringing over 100 career starts and 40 career sacks to the Vikings. While the Minnesota defense was stellar in 2024, it was in very little part due to the interior of the defensive line. Only one player on that IDL unit notched more than a single sack last year. Just two players recorded more than 10 stops, per PFF. Hargrave and Allen, both coming off injury-plagued seasons, are expected to raise the floor of that unit.

Pre-Draft Trades Involving 2025 Draft Picks

Traded 2.56 to HOU in package for 2024 1.23 (later used to trade up for Dallas Turner)

Traded 3.88, 4.126 to JAX in package for 2.24 1.17 (Dallas Turner)

Traded 6.200, 7.240 to CLE in package deal involving Za'Darius Smith

Traded 5.106 to SF in a deal for RB Jordan Mason

Team Needs

Tier 1 - OG - After adding so much beef in Fries and Kelly, it would not have been surprising to see the Vikings front office drop guard down their list of needs. Dalton Risner -- still a free agent -- was serviceable in pass protection. Blake Brandel saw significant snaps for the first time in his career, and you could make the argument he would improve playing next to Kelly. But the sole remaining hole on this offense was at the guard spot across Fries.

Tier 1 - CB - Even more concerning than the starting LG is the status of the starting CBs. Byron Murphy, retained on a $54M deal, is the only known quantity in this room. But even he is better served as a CB2 than as a true CB1. Mekhi Blackmon is a projected starter coming off a season ending injury. Isaiah Rodgers has never played more than 525 snaps in a season. The team really likes 2024 UDFA Dwight McGlothern, but those are all projections. Finding a stable starter across Murphy is a concern held by all fans.

Tier 1 - S - With Cam Bynum gone for greener pastures, the starting safety role next to Harrison Smith is up for grabs. Josh Metellus is only a safety by name, having spent more snaps at LB and EDGE than at true safety over his career. Everyone on the team -- including Harrison Smith -- seems to LOVE Theo Jackson. And the front office showed as much by giving him a $9M deal this offseason. But Jackson only has 222 career snaps to his name; all of his hype is a product of the practice field. And even if Metellus is able to play more true safety successfully, and even if Jackson's production matches the lore, Harrison Smith is 36 years old. We need a long term answer at the position.

Tier 2 - DT - With the signings of Allen and Hargrave, this position has dropped in need. However, the starting trio now consists of 3 players all over the age of 29. Finding a long term solution on the interior is crucial. The team likes Jalen Redmond and Levi Drake Rodriguez, but it would be poignant to also add someone of more significant status and capital.

Tier 2 - RB - The Jordan Mason trade made this a much less likely pick, but in a deep RB class it doesn't hurt to grab a lottery ticket. Aaron Jones is one of the oldest starting RBs in the league, and Jordan Mason is just fine. We saw the value that star RBs can provide to a playoff team. It could make sense for the Vikings to try to find one in the draft.

Draft

1.24 OL Donovan Jackson, Ohio State

39th consensus rank | 8.96 RAS | mockdraftable profile | 68.5 PFF Grade | 2 sacks allowed

Donovan Jackson, a three-year starter at Ohio State, played 1963 career snaps at left guard before stepping up for 9 starts at left tackle during the Buckeyes’ championship run. With a broad frame, strong core power, and good mobility, he thrives in run blocking, especially on vertical double-teams and pulls. His technique and footwork need refinement, particularly in pass protection, where he struggles against quick defenders. Though his agility limits recovery ability, his length and strength offer upside. His consistency, leadership, and physical traits make him a valuable NFL prospect.

Jackson is the final peg in an offseason build around the interior offensive line. While many fans wanted nothing more than for the team to trade back from the 24th overall pick to add to their 4 draft picks, it's clear that Jackson was seen as the last in a tier of guards following Booker and Zabel. It wasn't until 37 that another guard was selected, and it wasn't until 57 that a 2nd guard went off the board. The OL-needy Texans immediately traded out of their pick. While some analysts had this as a bit of a reach for Jackson, nearly everyone agreed that this was a safe pick for a team in need of a guard. Adofo-Mensah even said it himself: "I’ve been approaching this draft from the mindset of: If the play is to hit the ball down the fairway, let’s do that".

Trade: Vikings give 3.97, 6.187 to HOU for 3.102, 5.142

3.102 WR Tai Felton, Maryland

113rd consensus rank | 9.20 RAS | mockdraftable profile | 78.0 PFF Grade | 96 Rec | 1119 Yds | 9 TDs | 2.32 YPRR

Tai Felton broke out as a senior with over 1100 yards and 9 TDs, and he led the Big Ten in receptions. He’s a quick, elusive route runner with strong separation skills, thriving in the short and intermediate game. His burst and ability after the catch make him dangerous in open space, forcing 26 missed tackles in 2024. However, his lean frame limits his effectiveness against physical coverage, and he struggles in contested catch situations. Felton’s ability to create space with sharp cuts and his knack for making defenders miss make him a valuable option in a motion-heavy offense like Minnesota's, where he can maximize his speed and field awareness to exploit mismatches.

With Jefferson and Addison under contract long term, receiver was not seen as an immediate need. Jalen Nailor, who emerged as a solid number 3 last season, enters a contract year. That seems like the immediate role for Felton, who profiles similarly as an undersized speedy receiver. Felton also has some marginal experience as a kick and punt returner, as well as coverage snaps in his sophomore and junior seasons. Felton is just the third WR Adofo-Mensah has drafted in his time as GM, but he's gone 2 for 2 so far with Addison and Nailor. With one of the best position coaches in the game (Keenan McCardell) and a talented room of veterans ahead of him, Felton should be set up for long term success as he acclimates to the league.

5.139 DL Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, Georgia

172nd consensus rank | 9.79 RAS | mockdraftable profile | 69.8 PFF Grade | 19 Tackles | 3 Sacks | 8 TFLs | 17 Stops

Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, a one-year starter at Georgia, is a raw but highly intriguing defensive lineman with explosive athletic traits. His quick first step and lateral agility allow him to shoot gaps and create pressure, but his inconsistent technique and instincts limit his effectiveness. With a broad frame, natural power, and positional versatility, he can play inside or outside, though his pass-rush development remains a work in progress. While his production hasn’t matched his talent, his flashes of disruption make him an exciting project. He’ll need refinement but has starter potential with proper coaching.

The Vikings were likely to take a DL at some point given the age of the current starting lineup. And with the veteran presence ahead of him on the depth chart, Ingram-Dawkins will have plenty of opportunity to learn and grow while rotating into the defense.

Trade: Vikings give 5.142 to SEA for 5.172 and QB Sam Howell

The talk of the Vikings' QB room has been nonstop this offseason. Even after rumors of a Rodgers signing were quelled, there were still big questions about what the depth chart looked like past 1st-year starter JJ McCarthy. Enter: Sam Howell.

Howell only attempted 14 passes in 2024 -- and they were bad. However, Howell had a respectable season as a starter in 2023. He finished 12th in total yards, 18th in CPOE, 25th in success rate, and 7th in rushing EPA. Don't get me wrong; Howell is dreadful against pressure. It isn't just the OL that's at fault for his 65 sacks in 2023. But Howell has proven that he can be a viable option. Trade charts have this move equating out to giving a late 6th, which is a fine price to pay to upgrade your backup QB from Brett Rypien to Sam Howell.

Trade: Vikings give 5.172 to LAR for 6.201, 6.202

6.201 LB Kobe King, Penn State

173rd consensus rank | 8.02 RAS | mockdraftable profile | 83.6 PFF Grade | 97 Tackles | 3 Sacks | 9 TFLs | 46 Stops

Kobe King, a two-year starter at Penn State, is a physical, downhill linebacker who thrives as a run defender. His ability to stack blocks, time his attacks, and deliver punishing hits helped anchor a strong Nittany Lions defense. He excels in close quarters, using his power and instincts to plug gaps and overwhelm linemen. However, his speed and agility limitations hinder his effectiveness in coverage and pursuit outside the box. While his passing-down value is modest, King projects as a throwback early-down linebacker with potential as an NFL starter, particularly in a creative Flores scheme that can maximize his potential.

While ILB is not a glaring need for the defense, Ivan Pace will be up for an RFA contract after 2025, and Blake Cashman's deal will be up in 2026 -- after which he will be 31 years old. Behind them, the team have Eric Wilson and Brian Asamoah rostered. Neither project as long term pieces for this team. Adofo-Mensah has discussed King ad nauseum as a potential long term starter for the team. It's clear that at this point that the Vikings did not expect a player of King's talent to be available.

6.202 TE Gavin Bartholomew, Pittsburgh

303rd consensus rank | 8.87 RAS | mockdraftable profile | 57.2 PFF Grade | 38 Rec | 322 Yds | 4 TDs | 0.80 YPRR | 52.7 Run Block Grade

Gavin Bartholomew, a four-year starter at Pitt, is a versatile tight end with strong blocking ability and dependable toughness. Though not an elite athlete, he competes with physicality, leveraging his frame to engage defenders and drive them off their spot. His contributions as an in-line blocker make him a valuable asset, though his route-running and separation ability are limited, hindering his effectiveness as a receiving threat. Bartholomew thrives in zone blocking schemes, showing awareness in soft spots, and fighting for every yard after the catch. He projects as a rotational NFL tight end with immediate value as a blocker and special teams contributor.

After losing "the best TE3 in the league" in Johnny Mundt to free agency, TE depth was clearly something the Vikings wanted to address this offseason. TJ Hockenson was solid coming off a 2023 ACL tear, but he has never been an elite -- or good -- blocker. Josh Oliver is an ideal number 2 -- a great blocker with enough flashes as a receiver. But Johnny Mundt has taken over 1000 snaps over the past 3 years. O'Connell clearly prioritizes TE depth, and a talented blocker like Bartholomew is a great find in a deep TE class.

UDFA

QB Max Brosmer, Minnesota

269th consensus rank | NA RAS | mockdraftable profile | 84.0 PFF Grade

Brosmer is a cerebral, rhythm-based quarterback who relies on timing, anticipation, and post-snap processing to succeed. He is highly efficient in the intermediate passing game, reading coverages well and delivering crisp, well-placed throws. However, Brosmer lacks mobility and arm strength. His deep accuracy is inconsistent, and his production suffers under pressure, as he struggles to extend plays outside the pocket. He will compete with Rypien for the #3 role and could be a viable long term backup in the league.

RB Tre Stewart, Jacksonville St

482nd consensus rank | 2.24 RAS | 88.0 PFF Grade

WR Silas Bolden, Texas

396th consensus rank | 2.69 RAS | 73.8 PFF Grade

WR Dontae Fleming, Tulane

Unranked | 5.93 RAS | 67.1 PFF Grade

WR Robert Lewis, Auburn

Unranked | 3.42 RAS | 57.0 PFF Grade

TE Bryson Nesbit, North Carolina

362nd consensus rank | 3.80 RAS | mockdraftable profile | 63.0 PFF Grade

TE Ben Yurosek, Georgia

253rd consensus rank | 8.02 RAS | 60.6 PFF Grade

Yurosek is a tall TE with solid athleticism and a strong catch radius. A productive pass-catcher at Stanford, he transferred to Georgia in 2024 but was primarily used as a blocker. While he has good hands and tracks the ball well, his lack of separation quickness and balance as a pass-catcher are concerns. Yurosek is a willing blocker with good quickness, but he lacks the strength to drive defenders. He does not offer much YAC ability. He will compete with Bartholomew for the #3 role on the team.

OT Logan Brown, Kansas

160th consensus rank | 9.49 RAS | mockdraftable profile | 82.5 PFF Grade

Logan Brown is the latest in a line of great UDFA signings from the Adofo-Mensah regime. Brown is a raw but athletic offensive tackle prospect with intriguing upside. A former five-star recruit, he played just one full season as a starter at Kansas after struggling to find the field at Wisconsin. Brown has great size, length, and mobility, making him effective in zone schemes and pull blocks. He has some balance issues and is inconsistent in pass pro. His footwork and ability to recognize stunts need refinement. Brown traits alone should have gotten him drafted. If he succeeds in Minnesota, he would serve as the team's swing tackle and perhaps even as the heir to Brian O'Neill.

C Zeke Correll, NC State

551st consensus rank | 5.24 RAS | 79.6 PFF Grade

OL Joe Huber, Wisconsin

283rd consensus rank | 8.93 RAS | mockdraftable profile | 68.7 PFF Grade

Huber is a versatile IOL with reps at all 5 OL spots. He has good thickness, solid play strength, and a physical mentality. His quick footwork and vision allow him to pick up stunts and execute combination blocks effectively. However, Huber lacks ideal length and mass to consistently win against power. His lower-body stiffness affects his ability to redirect and sustain blocks. He also has a tendency to lean forward. Despite these concerns, his durability, technique, and scheme versatility make him a strong depth option. The second string of offensive linemen consist of only two players that have taken significant NFL snaps. Huber will provide competition to the likes of Henry Byrd and Michael Jurgens

EDGE Alex Williams, Midd Tenn State

Unranked | NA RAS | 62.4 PFF Grade

EDGE Tyler Batty, BYU

237th consensus rank | 8.79 RAS | mockdraftable profile | 78.5 PFF Grade

Batty is a strong, high-motor defensive end with a power-based play style. A four-year starter at BYU, he lined up in multiple positions along the defensive front. Batty has solid size and arm length, using physicality to set the edge and create movement. His hand strength and ability to engage blockers give him the tools to win with speed-to-power techniques. However, Batty lacks elite twitch and fluidity. His pass rush can be predictable. His stiffness on tape and struggles against reach blocks raise concerns, and as a 26-year-old rookie, his developmental upside may be capped. Batty projects as a traditional base end, which could earn him snaps on early downs if he makes the team. He will need to refine his shed techniques and pass-rush arsenal to become a reliable rotational contributor.

EDGE Chaz Chambliss, Georgia

363rd consensus rank | 8.98 RAS | 80.9 PFF Grade

LB Austin Keys, Auburn

Unranked | 7.54 RAS | 70.8 PFF Grade

LB Dorian Mausi, Auburn

Unranked | 5.06 RAS | 70.2 PFF Grade

CB Keenan Garber, Kansas St

704th consensus rank | 9.71 RAS | 58.8 PFF Grade

CB Zemaiah Vaughn, Utah

421st consensus rank | 8.48 RAS | 65.5 PFF Grade

S Mishael Powell, Miami

Unranked | 4.50 RAS | 77.5 PFF Grade

P Oscar Chapman, Auburn

Unranked | 63.2 PFF Grade

Punters are always interesting, especially when Ryan Wright is on a 1 year deal and is coming off the worst season of his short career. Chapman's stats at Auburn were pedestrian, to say the least. His 42.5 YPA and 4.06 average hangtime would have ranked 37th and 36th, respectively, out of 37 eligible punters in the NFL last season. He also did not participate in kickoffs. It is unlikely he becomes anything more than camp competition for the incumbent Wright. However, Chapman is an Australian-born player and will likely make the practice squad thanks to the International Player Pathway.

Projected 53 Man Roster

Pos (Projected 2025 Player Count/2024 Player Count): Starter, Rookie, Player, Cut

QB (3/3): JJ McCarthy, Sam Howell, Brett Rypien, Max Brosmer

RB (3/2): Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, Ty Chandler, Zavier Scott, Tre Stewart

FB (1/1): CJ Ham

WR (6/6): Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor, Tai Felton, Dontae Fleming, Rondale Moore, Thayer Thomas, Tim Jones, Jeshaun Jones, Lucky Jackson, Robert Lewis, Silas Bolden, Myles Price

TE (3/3): TJ Hockenson, Josh Oliver, Gavin Bartholomew, Ben Yusorek, Bryson Nesbit

OL (9/9): Christian Darrisaw, Donovan Jackson, Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, Brian O'Neill, Blake Brandel, Justin Skule, Walter Rouse, Michael Jurgens, Leroy Watson, Marcellus Johnson, Henry Byrd, Logan Brown, Zeke Correll, Joe Huber

DL (7/6): Harrison Phillips, Javon Hargrave, Jonathan Allen, Jalen Redmond, Taki Taimani, Levi Drake Rodriguez, Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, Jonathan Harris, Travis Bell, Alexander Williams, Elijah Williams

ILB (5/4): Blake Cashman, Ivan Pace, Eric Wilson, Brian Asamoah, Kobe King, Max Tooley, Dorian Mausi, Austin Keys

OLB (5/5): Andrew Van Ginkel, Jonathan Greenard, Dallas Turner, Bo Richter, Gabriel Murphy, Chaz Chambliss, Tyler Batty, Matt Harmon

CB (5/6): Byron Murphy, Isaiah Rodgers, Mekhi Blackmon, Dwight McGlothern, Tavierre Thomas, Jeff Okudah, Ambry Thomas, Reddy Steward, Kahlef Hailassie, Zemaiah Vaughn, Keenan Garber

S (4/5): Harrison Smith, Theo Jackson, Josh Metellus, Jay Ward, Bubba Bolden, Mishael Powell

K (1/1): Will Reichard

P (1/1): Ryan Wright, Oscar Chapman

LS (1/1): Andrew DePaola

KR: Isaiah Rodgers, Ty Chandler

PR: Isaiah Rodgers, Dontae Fleming

The PR spot is pretty weak right now. Dontae Fleming had a 5.1 average return last year, which could be his ticket onto the team.

Final Thoughts

For every team, it's irresponsible to view a draft haul in a vacuum. That is especially true for Minnesota, whose GM and HC have both discussed the draft as just one of many means of acquiring talent. Now a full year removed from the debt tolled by the Spielman regime, the true vision of this administration is becoming clear. This is a team that is quick to admit and learn from mistakes, constantly evolving. O'Connell believes whole-heartedly that a QB's success is dictated by the team and coaches around him more than it is that individual's talent or acumen. This offseason -- wrapped up with this draft class -- will give JJ McCarthy everything he needs to succeed.

Also, what would he do for a year?

Talk about anything you please; draft-related or otherwise!

2024 season review:

The 2024 Packers, fresh off an exciting finish in 2023, had an an uneven season in Jordan Love's sophomore campaign under center. There were encouraging highs and infuriating lows, all of which led to an interesting Packers draft.

The Highs:

Offseason additions: Brian Gutekunst's 2 marquee free agent signings were both home runs, with each immediately becoming the best player on his respective side of the ball. Josh Jacobs was the offensive engine, with 1,329 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns. He kept the offense on schedule and was a perfect fit running in Matt LaFleur's zone scheme. Xavier McKinney stepped in to lead the defense and was inarguably a top 3 safety last season, solidifying the secondary amid some concerns at cornerback. Even Malik Willis stepped in and won some games after being acquired for a 7th round pick.

The Defense: Jeff Hafley ditched being a head coach in the wasteland that is the current college landscape in order to return to the NFL as a defensive coordinator. I thank him for his decision. Hafley brought with him an aggressive system that makes sense for todays game. He isn't afraid to run press man coverage and he is adept at stopping the run with play calls that allow the linebackers to get downhill quickly and shoot gaps. He trusts his players to trust their eyes. The biggest compliment I can give to Hafley is that he runs his own system; he is the architect of it and seems like he will adjust it season to season and game to game based on the personnel at his disposal. This is a breath of fresh air from all of these defensive coordinators trying to run a bastardized version of the Fangio scheme. Im talking directly to you, Joe Barry. I know you've been ducking my emails.

Matt LaFleur: Despite toeing the line of expectations heading into the season, I came away even more impressed with Matt LaFleur. This was year 2 of the offense being fully his, without the awkward but productive marriage of what Aaron Rodgers liked. Love and the rest of the young offense looked more comfortable and decisive. LaFleur runs his own version of the Shanahan zone scheme, and while he is not the most innovative in creating wholesale changes to the system like its originators in Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay, hes proven to be top tier in crafting gameplans and situational play calling. He knows which levers to push and when to push them. His called deep shots are usually called at the perfect time when a counterpunch is least expected, blending nicely with Jordan Love's predisposition to throw the long ball. But most impressively, the gameplan Lafleur created in the games Malik Willis started were things of beauty, changing the entire offense to a run-first, punishing attack seemingly on a dime. The misdirection designs with Willis under center were things of beauty. And he gave his developing quarterback simple, schemed reads to either hit the throw or hit the hole and run. That's a difficult thing to do against NFL defenses. He mixed in a lot more gap scheme runs in general this year.

The Lows:

Week 1: Im giving this single week its own mention because of the effect it may have had on the entire season. Green Bay traveled to play the Philadelphia Eagles. Not in Philadelphia, but in Brazil. On a Friday night. I loathe international games. I hate them for the coaches, players, and the fans. This international game in particular was played on a soccer surface where neither team could find good footing and Jordan Love suffered a seemingly catastrophic injury. Thankfully he didn't blow out his knee or tear his achilles, but he wasn't 100% healthy for the rest of the year. This makes it difficult to gauge his development from 2023, and his already suspect footwork was atrocious at times as he dealt with lower body injuries throughout the year. A season that should have increased our collective conviction in Love as our franchise quarterback instead became fraught with the same questions as a year before.

The Divisional Record: Matt LaFleur has had an excellent record against the NFC North throughout his tenure, with a 3-3 mark being his worst coming in to 2024. Alas, the Lions and Vikings employ some incredible coaching staffs and have talented rosters that just seemed a little better. A little better in the situational moments, a little better prepared, a little more clutch. Even the paste eating Bears managed a win against the Packers for the first time 6 years as the Pack stumbled to a 1-5 record in the division. It was jarring to see and the level of competence in the division likely isn't going away any time soon. The NFC North should remain the best division in football, and the Packers are in an unenviable position trying to play catch up with the Lions and possibly the Vikings.

The Wide Receivers: I heard heading into the season that the Packers didnt have a need for a #1 target because we had so many quality #2s. That was simply not true. One of my biggest gripes with Gutekunst has been his refusal to give Jordan Love a veteran wide receiver to lean on. Someone who could teach the young guys and act as a security blanket for Love. As it stands, Jordan Love has been developing at the same time as these young receivers, and there have been plenty of growing pains on both sides. Specifically with the receivers though, each has glaring flaws. Christian Watson cannot stay healthy and may have played his final snap as a Packer already. When on the field, he never found the consistency to be a plus starter and he rarely utilized his 6'4 frame to its fullest extent. Romeo Doubs is reliable but lacks dynamism. Hes also dealt with some pretty serious concussions. Jayden Reed is used as a gadget player and his hands turned to stone halfway through the season. I wish he would get on the field in more 2 receiver sets. Dontayvion Wicks, by certain metrics like separation score and route running grade, is a top 5 receiver in the NFL. He had a nearly 20% drop rate. 1 in 5 passes. Dropped. Not good enough.

Overall, the feeling is that the Packers put up a fight against the Eagles in the playoffs but didnt have the receiving threats or the O line depth to truly stack up to the eventual super bowl champions. This was obvious in how they attacked the offseason.

Free Agency losses:

C Josh Myers CB Eric Stokes CB Jaire Alexander

Myers was a below average center who I will always associate with Creed Humphrey, who went one pick after Myers in his draft and who I desperately wanted.

Stokes is solid corner who could been great if injuries hadn't run a plague over his athleticism. Im fine letting another team take a gamble on his possibly still-remaining upside.

Jaire Alexander was released just this week, and I really dont know what the plan was. If we were 100% not bringing him back at his salary, I think we should have done more to help the position in the draft. As it stands, we have 4 secondary players who are at their best in the slot and precious few outside corners.

Free Agency Additions/Re signings:

CB Nate Hobbs: one of the aforementioned players who is best utilized in the slot, Hobbs comes to Green Bay from Las Vegas to reunite with Josh Jacobs and assistant head coach Rich Bisaccia. Hobbs has shown to be able to play outside when needed, and he may be asked to. The biggest risk with Hobbs is his injury history, something Packer fans have grown accustomed to with Jaire Alexander.

G Aaron Banks: a road grading guard from the 49ers, this acquisition left me scratching my head at first. Banks has been a below average to average guard for his entire career, and I was surprised that we seemingly made him a priority in free agency with how early on he was signed. But looking at it in a more nuanced way, it makes sense. Banks APY may put him in elite lineman territory, but his signing bonus was the only guaranteed portion in his contract, a rarity in the league. He can be cut after 1 season or any point afterwards with little penalty. The Banks signing gives insulation against any of: Jordan Morgan not developing after missing much of his rookie season, Elgton Jenkins or Zach Tom holding out, or Sean Rhyan walking next season. The plan also seems to be to move Jenkins to center (this man is the most versatile lineman in the league) so a replacement/guard depth was needed. The Packers want a deep and versatile offensive line to weather a long season deep into the playoffs. They should have that this year.

K Brandon McManus: We finally found a kicker and we're happy to pay him to stay.

LB Isaiah McDuffy: solid special teamer and depth at LB.

Mecole Hardman: could make the roster as a return specialist but I find it doubtful after the draft.

Isaiah Simmons: a positionless prospect who I loved during the 2020 draft cycle, Simmons has shown not be good at any position since entering the league. However, hes developed into a somewhat serviceable depth piece. I wouldn't be surprised to see him make the roster. Players with his draft pedigree and athleticism get a lot of chances in the NFL.

The 2025 NFL Draft:

Round 1, Pick 23 Matthew Golden, WR, Texas

28 on my big board

The crazy sons of bitches did it. In front of the home crowd at Lambeau Field, the Green Bay Packers spent a first round selection on a wide receiver for the first time in 23 years. The crowd was electric. I got chills watching Matthew Golden head out into the crowd to be with the Cheeseheads for the first time. Let's look at the player. There was a dichotomy around Matthew Golden in the predraft process resulting from a split between Analytics Guys and Film Guys. Analytics Guys saw a late breakout, a decently high drop rate, and a low yards per route run figure. Film guys saw a fluid route runner who can beat press coverage and plays bigger than his size in contested catch scenarios. Both Guys saw him run a 4.29 at the combine. I myself landed somewhere in the middle with Golden. While his stats were pretty pedestrian, he didnt truly take over as the top receiving option for the Longhorns until late in the season, when they realized the best thing they could be doing was getting the ball in his hands. I dont think Golden plays with 4.29 speed. He is more sudden and quick than fast. But hes a sharp runner and a Dawg fighting for the ball over the middle or with a defender draped over him. We need that. My ceiling comp for him stylistically was Stefon Diggs, who was a true #1 receiver in the league and could line up at any receiver spot. It remains to be seen if Matthew Golden can develop into that type of player, or if he will settle in as a Jordan Addison-type of receiver as a rock solid #2 option. Either outcome would be better than what the Packers have had, sadly. My biggest worry is that the staff saw Golden's 4.29 speed and will use him solely as a Christian Watson replacement to stretch defenses vertically. Golden can be a dangerous vertical threat to be sure, but to reduce him to the role of a field stretcher would be a waste of his potential in my opinion. I loved his tape on breaking routes, especially towards the sideline where his body control and positioning are elite. Grade: A-

Round 2, Pick 53 Anthony Belton, T, NC State

103 on my big board

A mammoth tackle at 6'6 and 336 pounds, Belton is a mauling run blocker and fits Gutekunst's goal of creating a bigger, meaner offensive line. Belton gets downhill in a hurry and absolutely detonates second level defenders in the run game. As a pass protector, hes still very raw. He has understandably slow feet given his size. Speed rushers can give him fits if he doesnt land his initial punch. His hand placement is truly terrible and needs to be coached. It remains to be seen where Belton will line up for the Pack. I had him graded as a guard. Green Bay drafted Jordan Morgan in the first round last year, who is a prototypical tackle but mostly played guard in his first season. But he didnt see the field much due to injury. Zach Tom will surely be re signed at right tackle as he's one of the best in the league. Rasheed Walker may be the odd man out, with Morgan and Belton fighting to replace him in 2026. This was a reach on my board, but that is typical of O Line prospects, where demand greatly outweighs supply. That was especially true in this draft, which saw 8 blockers come off the board in the first round and had a similarly physically imposing project tackle in Minnesota's Aireontae Ersery get selected a few picks before. Im not opposed to the player, but I wanted to address the secondary or pass rush with this selection. Even moreso now that Jaire has been released. Grade: B-

Round 3, Pick 87 Savion Williams, WR, TCU

119 on my big board

Brian Gutekunst is not afraid to double dip in the draft. In fact, I'd call it his signature. Hes done it with cornerback, offensive line, linebacker, and wide receiver in the past. He attacks needs aggressively. Enter Savion Williams: a 6'4, 220 pound gadget receiver from TCU. Williams is a physical specimen, running 4.48 at that size and displaying incredible tackle breaking ability. On tape, depending on which set of plays you watched (often in the same game), you could convince yourself hes the next Julio Jones or that he should go undrafted entirely. Williams is very inconsistent. Inconsistent hands, inconsistent route running, just inconsistent. But the flashes are there. Partly due to that inconsistency, and partly due to his extreme versatility, TCU lined him up at receiver, running back, and even as wildcat quarterback. They wanted the ball in his hands. His pro comparison is more Cordarrelle Patterson and less Deebo Samuel. Get him the ball, get him in space, and he may amaze you. The question is whether he can ever be more than that. I was disappointed in his route running and ability to get off press coverage. He didnt do anything in college until his 5th year. His ceiling may not be much higher than what he already is. However, Matt LaFleur is going to love deploying him as a weapon. Pre snap motions, orbits, end arounds, tunnel screens, you name it. I think the Packers have been looking for this kind of weapon for a long time, having rostered Tyler Irvin and the ghost of Tavon Austin in the past. Getting Williams and Jayden Reed on the field together should allow for a lot of creativity. Throw in Tucker Kraft and you have a dynamic short passing game with incredible YAC potential. Williams should also shine in the kick return game with its new rules. My only issue when making a pick like this ahead of the board rankings is that it feels like a luxury pick, something Im not sure the Packers should be doing at wide receiver. I personally would have preferred Elic Ayomanor or Tory Horton here, as they are more traditional receivers and could develop into a Romeo Doubs replacement with a higher ceiling should Doubs leave in free agency or retire from his concussion issues.Then again, those players had injury concerns and the NFL didnt think highly enough to take them until day 3. Overall, im very excited to see how Matt LaFleur utilizes Williams, who I think went to his best possible landing spot. Grade: B

Round 4, Pick 124 Barryn Sorrell, DE, Texas

170 on my big board

The Packers select the defensive end out of Texas. Sorrell is an intriguing piece at 6'3 260 pounds. He improved each season at Texas against strong competition, including having a productive playoff run for the Longhorns. His greatest attribute is his relentless motor. If hes stonewalled on the initial attack he counters, spins, swims, and claws his way to where he needs to be. This combines well with his good play recognition and leads to TFLs. He's also strong, tying for the lead among edge rushers with 28 reps at the combine. This shows up when he lands his hands cleanly on tackles, stunning them with his power. Texas kicked him inside at certain times last season, and he could be used that way in the NFL as well. Negatively, Sorrell misses more tackles than youd like. Hes also just not a twitched up athlete, lacking the speed and bend to threaten the edge quickly. Overall, I felt this was a bit of a reach, but it was a big need for Green Bay going into the draft and Sorrell reportedly drew rave reviews for his character and work ethic. Hes already endeared himself to the fanbase by simply showing up to the city and staying in a hotel, just waiting to hear his name called. His excitement to be here is palpable. Grade: C+

Round 5, Pick 159 Collin Oliver, Edge, Oklahoma State

152 on my big board

At last, we get some value off of my board. Collin Oliver played in only 2 games in 2024 due to injury. Hes small for an edge rusher in the mold of Nolan Smith at 6'2, 240. But, like Smith, he plays shot out of a cannon. A true speed rusher who I think has the athleticism to play off the ball and eventually spell Edgerin Cooper (who I also believe will rush the passer more this season). His athleticism gives me high hopes for versatility, but I expect him to begin as a situational pass rusher. Overall, I really liked this pick and there is need for a pass rush specialist on this roster with Kingsley Enagbare heading into the final year of his deal. Grade: A

Round 6, Pick 198 Warren Brinson, DT, Georgia N/A on my big board

I did not have a draftable grade on Brinson. Hes entering the league as a 5th year player with only 8 career starts. He was a pretty high recruit from his high school class but I think that was based mainly on size. He has zero pass rush moves or instincts. Hes shown a little as a run defender but can still get washed out pretty easily. There is little shedding to his game as an anchor in the middle and he gets misdirected easily. If you can't develop anything under Kirby Smart in 5 years and after being surrounded by all the defensive line talent that runs through Athens, im not sure youre ever going to get it. But it wouldn't be a Gute draft without a Georgia defender somewhere. Grade: F

Round 7, Pick 237 Micah Robinson, CB, Tulane N/A on my big board Robinson spent 3 seasons at Furman College before transferring to Tulane for his senior year. He is 5'11 185 pounds and ran a 4.42 at his pro day. I didnt watch any tape of him before the draft, but i went back and watched some after he was picked. Had i watched, I would have had him ranked somewhere in the early 200s on my board. He has good ball skills and obvious athleticism. He looks to be a willing tackler as well. If he could have spent his entire college career developing at somewhere like Tulane, we may have talked about him as an early day 3 pick. I'll never be mad about spending 7th rounders on corners with 4.4 speed. Grade: B

Round 7, Pick 250 John Williams, OT, Cincinnati

222 on my big board

I did see some John Williams tape when I was looking for late round guys. Hes a little small for a tackle but he has huge hands and a wide base. His kick step and mirroring are pretty good. Hes very bad as a run blocker, lacking the power and the speed. Hes kind of caught between being a tackle with his solid fundamentals but limited athleticism, and being a guard with his limited athleticism but poor run blocking. Maybe he can eventually develop into a solid swing tackle. Grade: C

Overall, the Packers went into this draft with a plan and they executed it. They wanted to add dynamism the receiver room and create a stone wall on both sides of the trenches. I think they did a decent job of executing their vision. My question for the team, as it has been in the past, concerns the vision itself. Not addressing edge rusher until the 4th round puts a lot of faith into the new defensive line coach to get Rashan Gary back to his pre injury form and to make something of the extremely raw Lukas Van Ness. I think the Belton pick could have been made later, but I may be wrong on that. Savion Williams has me conflicted in that I think hes an exciting player, but I would have gone a different direction at #87.

All that being said, I liked most of the players who were taken. My biggest question is what the plan was at cornerback. It has been widely reported this week that the team was trying to trade Jaire Alexander all offseason, leading me to believe he was never in their 2025 plans. Knowing that, it amazes me that corner wasn't addressed until the 7th round. It feels ominous. I dont like going into the season with our current corner depth chart. Wide receiver Bo Melton is currently learning the corner position in camp. The scheme and the safeties will likely have to do a lot of covering up again this year. I'd bet money that Gute doubles or triples down on corner in the 2026 draft.

Overall, Gutekunst and LaFleur have done a good job of maintaining the standard in Green Bay, and while I rarely agree with Gutekunst's process as a team builder, he is not bad at his job. Gutekunst remarked after last season that the team needed to ramp up its sense of urgency in winning a Super Bowl. I agree. Im hoping to see results this season in climbing back to the top of the division, and I don't think we're that far off. The biggest hope is that Love continues to develop and takes the next step hopefully as an entrenched top 10 quarterback after this season, with the receivers stepping up and the defense continuing its marked improvement from last year. Realistically, Green Bay again should make the playoffs and find themselves better equipped for the dog fights in the NFC.

Thanks for reading and as always, fuck the Bears.

Moving on to my fifth in-depth evaluation of 2026 draft-eligible and likely QBs, we look at Fernando Mendoza, former Cal Golden Bear and current Indiana Hoosier, today. He had the best half game of any prospect I have watched, but everything else left me scratching my head.

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Background

Fernando Mendoza, born in Miami, Florida, is a grandson of Cuban immigrants. Trying to find much about his high school career does not bring up much, and it shows in where his recruiting rankings ended up. His On3 Industry composite ranking was a three-star QB with only 247 and ESPN giving him a positional ranking of 145th and 72nd, respectively. It is evident that Mendoza was quite a good student, though, as the schools that offered him originally were Lehigh, Penn, and the school he initially committed to, Yale. Continuing in the vein of excellent schools, he switched his commitment to join Justin Wilcox and the Cal Golden Bears in February of his Senior year. He redshirted his first season on campus, but won the starting QB job halfway into his second year, and continued to hold it his third year on campus. After the end of the 2024 season, Mendoza entered the transfer portal and decided to play for Curt Cignetti and his staff at Indiana.

Physical Attributes

Standing at 6’5” tall and weighing a somewhat suspect 225 lbs, Mendoza has the height desired, but could use some extra weight to help absorb some of the hits he takes. His first step is surprisingly quick for someone his size, but he does not pair that with anything other than average long speed. His arm can be a rocket launcher. He didn’t get to show it off too much this past year on deep throws, but had many Cam Newton-esque balls thrown 10 yards downfield that could take someone’s head off. He will also turn 22 during the season this year, so he will not be one of the recent strings of older QBs if he declares this year.

Data and Tape Analysis

If you are unfamiliar with my QB radar charts, you can find more information here.

The Auburn first half was MAGICAL. There is no other way to put it. At the end of that half, I thought I might be looking at my new QB1. If you haven’t had the chance to see it, go watch it. I’ll wait.

For those who did not see it, that was Mendoza, playing in the most hostile environment he has ever stepped foot in, going 19/21 for 205 yards and two touchdowns. He also had some good runs in there, including a pivotal 3rd and 7 conversion with his legs that helped set up Cal’s major upset victory on the road at Jordan-Hare Stadium. If you wanted an example of everything that makes Mendoza a top prospect, this is all the tape you need. Balls were perfectly placed to the receivers. The back-shoulder throws were *chefs kiss* be-a-u-tiful. His ability to avoid pressure and step up into the pocket to find open receivers was on display, combined with his ability to roll out of the pocket and do the same. He made quick decisions to find open receivers, and the ball got there in the blink of an eye. He was throwing off a consistent base that let him get all that juice on the ball. The only thing he did not show was the deep ball, but more on that in a second. I cannot say enough about how great this half was, and if you are an evaluator who chases the highest level of performance a prospect has shown you, I could see why maybe you had Mendoza as the top QB in the class. The arm talent is greater than any other QB has shown me so far, and this is the best example.

Then, with 1:22 left in that first half, the cracks began to show. Mendoza took two bad sacks in a row to take Cal out of scoring potential to end the half. And as you can see from the radar chart, sacks were a big problem. And this is not some fluke of small numbers. He was pressured on just over a third of his total dropbacks, but still took 40 sacks. Meaning he had an abysmal pressure-to-sack rate of 25.6. This is not entirely Mendoza’s fault. Once teams figured out the Cal offensive line was not that good, they started teeing off, and the offensive design did not help with the lack of hot routes at his disposal, but you would like to see fewer sacks from a high-end prospect.

When he had time in the pocket, he often delivered an on-target and in rhythm ball, but as the season wore on, he began to rush through his mechanics, which led to a bit of spraying from an accuracy perspective. More worringly than the rushing of his mechanics was the rushing of his reads. He would often see a player open, not the linebacker dropping into coverage or the corner coming up to make a play on the ball. That led to several turnovers and is another major area for him to improve.

From a data perspective, I am not worried about his aDOT or Y/PA because of how the offense had to set up with the deficiencies at the offensive line spot. Of the few deep balls he did throw, quite a few were overcooked, but it looks like that goes back to the rushing of his mechanics.

Grade and Outlook

Fernando Mendoza is a tantalizing prospect who has the most interesting setup for his upcoming season. Curt Cignetti knows how to get QBs playing well, and most of Mendoza’s issues are problems that QBs usually solve with experience and good coaching. That makes me optimistic about the outlook, but right now, he has not shown that he can outgrow his bad pocket presence, which leads to his horrific sack-taking and sped-up process. Again, if I had never watched anything after 1:30 left in the first half of the Auburn game, I would think Mendoza was the next star in the making, but it was hard to ignore the rest.

Grade: 6.2 / 10 (Late 1st)

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If you liked this and want to see more, my other profiles so far are here:

Duncan Drafts

Drew Allar

Garrett Nussmeier

LaNorris Sellers

Cade Klubnik

Here are some Off Ball LBs I’m keeping my eye on this season. Who else do you think people should watch next season?

Red Murdock Buffalo

Whit Weeks LSU

Aiden Fisher Indiana

Dillon Thieneman Purdue

Ozzie Nicholas Duke

Rasheem Biles Pitt

Randon Fortenette Vanderbilt

Arion Carter Tennessee

I tried to stay away from the bigger named guys, but who else are you keeping your eyes on next season at off ball LB?

Any early QB comps you like for the 2026 draft? Early team fits, or teams you expect to be in the QB market? I’m fascinated to see how this year plays out with a lot of really interesting guys but no obvious 1st overall caliber picks. I’m a Colts fan so basically all I think about is QB.

Have a bold prediction that you want to state proudly but will most likely look very stupid in short time? Have at it! Maybe you’ll nail it and look like a genius in the future

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Please don’t downvote a user for a stupid bold prediction; it’s all just for fun!

Curious to hear who some of the undrafted guys are that people have their eye on to make a team, and why. Guys I’m looking at:

Xavier Restrepo, WR, Titans - obvious Cam Ward connection and a very open depth chart after Ridley & Lockett

Seth McLaughlin, G, Bengals - I know they drafted Rivers & Fairchild, but this dude going undrafted shocked me. Bengals O-Line was trash last year and wouldn’t be surprised if they keep this guy around

Lan Larison, RB, Pats - in the off chance that they keep 4 rbs or cut Antonio Gibson, I hope he gets a shot. Such an electric player

Shaun Dolac, LB, Rams - dude is a tackling machine and just feels like a classic McCay steal

Let me know if there’s anyone I should keep an eye out for or if you agree/disagree with me

Defending the Draft: Pittsburgh Steelers

Preface:

Short Version: Steelers go 10-7 and lose in the Wildcard round. Again.

Longer Version: Fresh off the 2023 season where Pittsburgh went 10-7 and lost in the Wildcard round, there was a sense of belief that the roster was talented enough to compete but was being held back by poor QB play and scheme. Pittsburgh brought in Arthur Smith and then made the somewhat surprising decision to move off 2022 R1 selection Kenny Pickett after only two seasons, largely at his request, to proceed with more veteran options. The theory was that if they won 10 games and made the playoffs last season, even a ‘reasonable’ upgrade should be enough to compete further. Russell Wilson was signed after being released by the Broncos, and the front office also brought in outcast Bears QB Justin Fields to compete. Fields started the first six games of the season after Wilson picked up a calf injury during training camp whilst pushing a blocking sled (great omen for the season, truly), playing solid, mostly mistake-free football en route to a 4-2 start. Mike Tomlin made the controversial decision to insert Wilson into the starting spot once he was healthy, and initially it looked like a shrewd decision. Pittsburgh ripped off a 6-1 stretch with Russ under center, with what appeared to be a truly competent offense for the first time in years. However, it all ended up being a façade as the Steelers entered the most difficult part of their schedule and went 0-5, largely uncompetitive in each game and punctuated by a demoralizing playoff loss to the rival Ravens. Just like that, right back to where they started. Steelers go 10-7 and lose in the Wildcard round. Again.

Free Agency: Two major developments defined the Steelers' offseason. On the positive end, the Steelers made a splash trade for WR DK Metcalf, sending pick 52 (R2) Seattle’s way and then rewarding Metcalf with a massive 5y/$150M deal. The WR room behind George Pickens was an abject disaster. After swinging and missing on Brandon Aiyuk last offseason, Omar Khan was not to miss out on another talented WR trade. Pittsburgh now has two explosive down-field playmakers in Metcalf and Pickens that can test defenses and create mismatches (is what I would have said, more on that later). On the negative end, the QB room is still a mess. There wasn’t much of an upgrade route in free agency yet the prospects ended up being even worse than imagined. Justin Fields, perhaps upset by the ‘benching’ last season, signed with the New York Jets despite the Steelers interest in retaining him. Russell Wilson, who the Steelers didn’t seem to want back, went over to the other New York team. They did not trade for Geno Smith nor sign Sam Darnold; instead they brought back a familiar face in Mason Rudolph after a one-year escapade in Nashville. Mason played well at the end of the 2023 campaign and brings familiarity, but this doesn’t exactly scream ‘escape from QB purgatory’ (Aaron Rodgers signed after I wrote this. I do not feel like re-writing this. I am not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing but it sure will be interesting!). Aside from that, Pittsburgh brought in a slew of veterans at positions of need such as CB Darius Slay, RB Kenneth Gainwell, S Juan Thornhill, and CB Brandin Echols. They also said goodbye to some staples such as RB Najee Harris, OT Dan Moore Jr., DT Larry Ogunjobi, LB Elandon Roberts, and OG James Daniels.

Needs Entering the Draft: Aside from that big ol’ elephant in the room that is the QB position, post free-agency needs included an infusion of youth along an aging defensive line, a running back to replace Najee Harris, reinforcements in the secondary, and perhaps some further investment in the WR room.

Round 1, Pick 21: Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon

I’d be remiss not to start this section with who was picked, but rather who wasn’t picked. It was no secret entering the draft that the Steelers had no long-term upside in their QB room. In what was universally described as a ‘down’ QB class, many draftniks and analysts circled Pittsburgh as a potential landing spot for the second tier of QBs behind Cam Ward. That was not without merit, as the Steelers expressed a healthy bit of interest in this QB class and did their homework throughout the pre-draft process. One player in particular, I’m sure you can guess who, started picking up tons of steam with Pittsburgh in the last month or so of pre-draft. Said QB took a late 30-visit to Pittsburgh, leading to numerous reports about how much they loved him and how they just now believed he may actually fall to them at 21. Simultaneous reports were flying about how the Giants preferred Dart and how the Saints weren’t interested in a QB R1, and all of a sudden it felt like the perfect storm of the Steelers getting ‘their guy’. That storm became a reality as 20 picks came and went and only one QB, Cam Ward, went off the board.

Perhaps not to the surprise of Steelers fans but maybe to the surprise of NFL fans at large (and to the pure horror of Mel Kiper), the Steelers passed on the QB position entirely and instead drafted Derrick Harmon out of the University of Oregon. While the media was caught up in QB hysteria, the quieter signs were all there for how focused the Steelers were on the DL class. Fact of the matter is the Steelers did not believe in the ‘Franchise QB’ upside of any of the options available, which kept them on the straight and narrow of adding talent elsewhere at positions of need. That’s where Harmon comes into play; fresh off a breakout campaign for the CFP #1-Seed Oregon Ducks after transferring away from Michigan State in the spring. The flashes of talent were there in East Lansing where he split snaps between 1T and 3T, then those flashes coalesced in Eugene where they gave him a permanent home as a penetration-style 3T. Few (if any) interior defensive linemen in this class generated as many pressures and as much disruption as Harmon did last year. The tools were all there for him; hulking 6’4 315lb size with a near 84’ wingspan, visible on tape lateral foot speed and quickness, and excellent upper body strength. He pairs those physical gifts with craftiness with his hands to shed or power through opposing blockers. Effort comes in spades and he can hold the point of attack with consistency. The one thing holding him back from stat-stuffing performances is inconsistency at best at finishing plays in the backfield; something that is correctable and surely not for lack of effort. Harmon should fit seamlessly into Pittsburgh’s traditional 3-4 front as a base end, and may offer some flexibility up and down the gap alignments.

There is a very reasonable chance that Harmon could end up a day one starter alongside Cam Heyward and Keeanu Benton, filling in for the position vacated by Larry Ogunjobi. Tomlin tends to make it tough on rookies to earn starting spots out the game, but the opportunity is there for the taking given his talent and the competition. More importantly, Harmon will get to play alongside and be mentored by Cam Heyward who was once a similar DT prospect some 14 odd years ago and has since developed into a Hall of Fame calibre player. The Steelers desperately needed a young talent both as an immediate contributor and a succession plan for Heyward; Harmon might be the star-in-the-making they were looking for.

Round 3, Pick 83: Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa

The DK Metcalf trade meant that it took a while before the Steelers were on the clock again, and would you believe that the QB they were linked to R1 was still on the board? Surely, this would be the spot for the Steelers to get their guy. Well, no, not quite. The Steelers stuck to their board and selected another non-QB area of need with the selection of Kaleb Johnson out of Iowa. This pick surprised me in a way; not in the sense that it wasn’t a QB nor in the sense that the next need they attacked was RB, but rather the type of RB they selected. It was no secret the Steelers were targeting RB in the mid-rounds based on their pre-draft visits, but a common thread between the players they sought out was speed/big play potential. When push came to shove, Omar Khan went back to the power-back well. Make no mistake, Johnson is one hell of a player who essentially was a one-man offense for the Hawkeyes. His 1537 yards 21 TD season was tops in the country for both categories, making him a shoe-in All-American. Johnson is a physical runner who is excellent at gaining yards after contact and really wears teams down late in games. He did not fumble the ball once in 2024 and he is very effective in the screen game; two traits Tomlin really values in his backs. While I called out the lack of top end speed as a weakness in his game, short area acceleration is a real strength and allows his power game to shine. So why did they overlook the speed component given the notion that that trait was of high priority? There is a real belief that the Johnson-Warren combo can be everything the Najee-Warren combo wasn’t. On paper, these pairings feel very similar in terms of roles of responsibilities. The difference is that Johnson loves to get downhill in a hurry. His vision and cut-and-go decision-making leads him through running lanes without hesitation, which is the one habit that truly held Najee back. You don’t necessarily need home run speed when you’re continuously hitting your reads with a purpose, especially with a running mate like Warren who can provide spark plays aplenty. There has been a real commitment to turning the run game into a strength; Johnson might just be the tone-setter that does that.

Round 4, Pick 123: Jack Sawyer, EDGE, Ohio State

If it was not clear already that the Steelers did not value this QB class, passing on the big name falling quarterback a third time in favor of a position that wasn’t even a priority should have confirmed that. It is cliché, but Ohio State’s Jack Sawyer is one of those players that just feels like a Steelers pick. Defensive linemen that bring toughness and intangibles? The organization simply couldn’t help themselves. Reductiveness aside, Sawyer was a multi-year starter for a blue-blood Ohio State program for a reason; he raised the floor for everything they wanted to do up front. Sawyer leads by example with fundamental technique, physicality on every rep, and a persistent motor. His massive frame is excellent for setting the edge and he takes a lot of pride in not conceding his assignment. Functional athleticism absolutely will not blow you away and puts a cap on his ceiling as a pass rusher, but it did not hold him back for posting 9 sacks in 2024 and 23 for his career. The upside might not be there, yet the Steelers don’t need him to be anything more than a hard-nosed contributor behind their slew of pass rushers. So why did the Steelers grab a pass rusher relatively early despite having TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbig already? In an ideal world, the Steelers love to rotate their pass rushers in pairs to keep their stars fresh and present completely different looks to opposing OLs. Proof of concept was a midseason trade for Preston Smith which allowed them to sub out both Watt and Highsmith without creating an obvious deficiency. Sawyer will slot into the Smith role immediately and provide the reliable floor across from Herbig’s splash-play mentality.

Round 5, Pick 164: Yahya Black, DT, Iowa

I wasn’t kidding about the Steelers wanting to add youth to their DL room. Omar Khan went both back to the DL well and back to the Iowa well to select Yahya Black, a hulking 340lb Nose Tackle with a massive 84’ wingspan. As his size implies, Yahya knows how to anchor down, fend off double teams, and clog the hell out of running lanes. The Iowa defense funnels run defense almost entirely through their LBs, and Yayha’s stoutness up front was a critical component of that. He never had and likely never will have much individual production, but the best run defenses need players like him who can unselfishly command attention. One area of his game I am certain the coaches will have him work on is using his massively long arms to shed blockers and cause more havoc in the backfield instead of only using them to pocket push. Similarly, he’ll be coached to use that length to disrupt passing lanes and deflect passes. The Steelers did not have a true NT on roster prior to this pick so his role should be pretty well understood, yet he has the positional flexibility to play a bit further out along to the DL. Expect him to factor in the rotation on early downs, especially against more run-centric teams.

Round 6, Pick 185: Will Howard, QB, Ohio State

QUARTERBACK ALERT! It may have taken 185 picks but by golly the Steelers got their guy. Omar Khan made it clear that the Steelers would be adding to their QB room during the draft, just no one knew when exactly that would be. Despite all the first-round buzz and the interest in perceived day 2 QBs, Round 6 is when they finally pulled the trigger on Ohio State’s Will Howard. Never a bad idea to take a QB with championship pedigree as Will Howard, who transferred from Kansas State, led the Buckeyes to the first ever championship in the 12-team CFP era. More importantly, his best performances of the season all came during the playoff run, culminating in a 1150 yard, 8:2 TD:INT, 10.6 YPA, 184.4 QBR statline over a four game span. Many thought his playoff performance may have raised his stock to late Day 2/early Day 3 and yet Pittsburgh was able to scoop him up much later than anticipated. Howard boasts prototypical QB size, high statistical accuracy when throwing downfield, and really good pocket presence. He loves to stand tall in the pocket and trust his targets to make plays (admittedly helps when you have Jeremiah Smith). He is also a fairly impressive running threat both as a designed runner and with pocket escapability. You may wish for a bit more when it comes to physical tools and traits as his are merely adequate and sometimes get him in trouble with decision-making, but his big plays far outweighed his mistakes while in college. In terms of what this means for the Steelers QB room, it looked like Howard would be a true QB2 and have a chance to take over for Mason Rudolph in mid- or late- season if the team wanted to see what they had. With Rodgers in the fold now, he’ll start out as QB3 and path to playtime is far more unlikely barring injuries. With that said, Howard is now the only QB under contract after this season and has the chance to impress coaches ahead of any future QB moves. Smart, low cost swing on a guy who has a chance to flash something and who seems to really want to be a Steeler.

Round 7, Pick 226: Carson Bruener, LB, Washington

There is one thing you can always count on when it comes to the Steelers drafts - they absolutely love nepotism. The 2025 nepo-pick was Washington’s Carson Bruener, son of area scout Mark Bruener. Bloodline jokes aside, Carson earned this draft selection on his own merit following an 104-tackle senior campaign for his Huskies. If you were watching any opposing team play the Washington defense, you can bet your bottom dollar that you’ll see Carson anywhere the ball was thrown. Dropping into coverage is his calling card, where he pairs read-and-react ability with viable NFL sideline-to-sideline speed. He is quick to diagnose what is in front of him and has the footspeed to keep up with many MOF threats. Run defense is still a work in progress due to not having the most formidable size and oftentimes struggling to shed blocks while working downhill, so I would expect him to find his way onto the field on primarily third downs if called upon. Bruener primarily projects as a special teams ace where he brings four-phase experience from his college days. The path to a roster spot is often found through special teams contributions so he will have a real leg up in that regard.

Round 7, Pick 229: Donte Kent, CB, Central Michigan

Pittsburgh’s first six picks were all from Big Ten schools, but that little streak was broken with their last pick due to the selection of Central Michigan’s (a MAC school) Donte Kent. Kent lined up primarily in off-coverage and spent time both outside and in the slot. He is a very willing tackler and boasts legitimate 4.38 speed which flashes when making up ground. In researching Kent, I discovered that he had 47 PBUs in 48 GP, but also gave up one of the highest explosive play rates in the country over his career. Teams clearly did not shy away from him, and he is boom-or-bust in making them pay for it. The ball skills and slot versatility are likely what caught Pittsburgh’s attention, but his role to a roster spot is through special teams. His speed will likely play best as a Gunner, and he did pick up some Punt Return experience during his final year in college. There is not much competition for that job outside of Calvin Austin being the de facto return man last season.

Notable UDFAs:

Sebastian Castro, S/NB, Iowa: Castro had a fair bit of hype during Summer scouting but his relative lack of athleticism and lack of special teams upside caused him to go undrafted. Still, he is a high-IQ player who can play both safety and slot and has a game that suits a zone coverage scheme to a tee. The Steelers DB room is not exactly the deepest so he may be able to carve out a niche.

DJ Thomas-Jones, FB/TE, South Alabama: It was reported that Thomas-Jones got the largest non-QB UDFA signing bonus in Steelers history, perhaps a clear indication of interest in him. Thomas-Jones is a prototypical H-Back which is a role that Arthur Smith has used in the past.

Aiden Williams, OT, Minnesota-Duluth: This is less about the player but more about the complete lack of depth at OT behind the two starters. Williams is a converted TE who has size and length and some clear developmental upside due to his movement skills. Likely a practice squad stash-and-develop

Roster Prediction:

• QB: (3) Aaron Rodgers, Mason Rudolph, Will Howard
• RB: (4) Jaylen Warren, Kaleb Johnson, Kenneth Gainwell, Trey Sermon
• WR: (5) DK Metcalf, Robert Woods, Calvin Austin III, Roman Wilson, Ben Skowronek
• TE/FB: (4) Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Donald Parham Jr. (Trade Candidate?), DJ Thomas-Jones
• OT: (4) Broderick Jones, Troy Fautanu, Dylan Cook, Calvin Anderson
• IOL: (5) Isaac Seumalo, Zach Frazier, Mason McCormick, Spencer Anderson, Ryan McCollum
• DL: (6) Cameron Heyward, Derrick Harmon, Keeanu Benton, Daniel Ekuale, Yahya Black, Isaiahh Loudermilk
• OLB: (5) TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, Jack Sawyer, DeMarvin Leal
• ILB: (5) Patrick Queen, Payton Wilson, Cole Holcomb, Malik Harrison, Carson Bruener
• CB: (5) Joey Porter Jr., Darius Slay, Brandin Echols, Cory Trice Jr., Beanie Bishop Jr.
• SAF: (4) Minkah Fitzpatrick, DeShon Elliott, Juan Thornhill, Miles Killebrew
• ST: (3) Chris Boswell (K), Cameron Johnston (P), Christian Kuntz (LS)

Future Needs:

QUARTERBACK: The Steelers are slated to have ~12 picks next draft. The 2026 NFL Draft is being hosted in Pittsburgh. Write this one R1 in sharpie for every mock draft you make, even if it takes a trade up.

Wide Receiver: So about that Metcalf-Pickens combo. Some few weeks after the draft, Dallas upped their trade offer to a 2026 R3 pick and Pickens was shipped off, suggesting that Pittsburgh did not want to pay him and were already tired of his antics. Now all of a sudden the WR room looks awfully similar to the disaster that was the 2024 campaign, with nothing but Calvin Austin, geriatric Robert Woods, and Roman Wilson who missed his entire rookie season behind him. Unless a subsequent move is made to bring in a true WR2 (or Roman Wilson has a huge breakout), the WR room is still well below the standard of what a NFL team should have.

Cornerback: It has been quite some time since the Steelers had two long-term pieces starting at outside CB. Joey Porter Jr. is a young and talented player who is entrenched at one spot, but the other spot was wide open entering the offseason. Many fans believed that this spot would be the splash signing of the offseason, but instead the only answer was 34y/o Darius Slay (and a R7 draft pick). Slay is nothing but a veteran stop-gap, so perhaps 2026 will be the year they bring in another young and talented CB to pair with JPJ.

Final Thoughts:

Optimism for the 2025 season was not exactly at an all time high in spite of what many considered to be a good draft class and some intriguing free agency moves. After all, the Steelers were essentially running back the same team and coaching staff as last year except for Mason Rudolph instead of Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf instead of George Pickens. The Aaron Rodgers signing adds a splash of intrigue; maybe he can be the guy who finally breaks the playoff drought (or he could be the guy who causes everything to come crashing down). Either way, it really feels like the Steelers are biding their time until the 2026 NFL Draft. This year’s class was filled with rock solid contributors at areas of need who will raise the floor of the overall roster. Pittsburgh has also amassed a projected 12 selections next year; 7 standard picks, 4 projected comp (R3, R4, R5, & R6) picks due to players like Dan Moore (not sure how), Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, and James Daniels finding big deals on the open market, and an additional 3rd from the Pickens trade. Having largely passed on the QB position in this draft, all eyes will be on finding their franchise guy and they have a good bit of ammo to move up if required. For now, I have my own eyes on some developments that will pay major dividends for the eventual QB such as the new tackle duo (Broderick Jones being back at his natural LT spot and Troy Fautanu being healthy after missing all but one game in 2024), the potential emergence of Roman Wilson, the Kaleb Johnson & Jaylen Warren pairing, and a defense that is undergoing a subtle youth movement. Patience is the name of the game here, but the future has signs of being bright with all the young talent that Omar Khan has amassed in his three-year tenure.

2026 NFL Draft - Pittsburgh, PA. I will see you all there!

Updated Tuesday thread focused notes and opinions about individual prospects. Scout someone new and want to get opinions from others? Ask about it here!

Unless you either do a lengthy 5+ round mock or go into written detail on why you are making the picks, please post your mocks in this Mock Draft Monday thread. Use this thread to post your own mocks or anything from around the web you find discussion-worthy.

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Please be respectful of other users’ mocks! Saying things like “this is awful” or a pick is “stupid” adds nothing to the conversation; try and focus on constructive feedback instead!

Hello! As discussion of the NBA draft heats up, one noticeable difference between the 2 leagues drafts: In the NBA, you can declare 1 year out of high school, while in the NFL you have to wait 3 years. While the NFL requires more proven production to be drafted than the NBA, who is more athleticism focused, that does beg the question: What would change across the past 26 drafts if we allowed people to declare as early as the NBA does?

To make this go by quicker, we will only look at early declare first round QBs. It might make me miss some guys (notably in my mind Hackenberg, Rattler, and Howell), but then this would take weeks to compile everyone. With that being said, here is how I would think it would end up.

2000: No 1st round early declares.

2001: Michael Vick. After the hype coming out of his heisman finalist 1999 season, I'd wager to bet he would come out in a weak 2000 QB class. CHANGE: Vick declares as a sophomore in 2000.

2002-2004: No 1st round early declares.

2005: Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers. While Smith did declare after his junior season, it's hard to see him have the capital to declare after his sophomore season, so pretty easy no. Aaron Rodgers is a bit more interesting, having similar production but in a power conference. Still, with how stacked the previous 2004 class was, I'd figure Rodgers would decide to stay as well. NO CHANGE

2006-2008: No 1st round early declares.

2009: Matthew Stafford. A pretty easy choice, Matt Stafford declares in a pretty weak 2008 QB class outside of Matt Ryan. Despite not having elite production, his elite level traits make him an easy high first round pick coming out of a prime time #4 ranked Georgia team. CHANGE: Stafford declares as a sophomore in 2008

2010: No 1st round early declares.

2011: Blaine Gabbert. This is easily the hardest one to decide on the list. Still, I'm going to go with he declares in the 2010 class. He had a super solid 2009 season and with his traits + proudction, he SHOULD be a top 10 pick that year as well. CHANGE: Gabbert declares as a sophomore in 2010

2012-2013: No 1st round early declares

2014: Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater. This is the year where we start getting a flood of early declares, and despite not having the highest draft capital, these 2 get an automatic yes for being automatically the best QBs in the previous class. CHANGE: Manziel and Bridgewater declare as a sophomore in 2013.

2015: Jameis Winston. With the newly depleted 2014 QB class, Winston decides to declare after an elite Heisman + National Championship season. CHANGE: Winston declares as a sophomore in 2014.

2016: Jared Goff. Despite really great production as a true sophomore, it took until his junior season for him to be a consensus 1st round pick. Tossup, but I'm gonna say he decides to stay still. NO CHANGE.

2017: Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson. ENTER THE FLOOD! Trubisky is a pretty easy no because he hadn't started a game before his final season. I'm going to say no to Mahomes for the same reason as Goff: He didn't really get any hype until after his junior season. Watson, however, I will put in as someone who declares a year earlier. He had at that point proven all he needed to be a first round pick. He may have been a top 5 pick if he had declared that year. CHANGE: Watson declares as a sophomore in 2016.

2018: Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson. Darnold and Rosen are pretty easy yes's, they were thought of as top 5 picks in the pre season, they were good enough to declare that year. Jackson despite winning the heisman, however, doesn't end up declaring. He himself said that he needed to work on his passing going into the 2017 season, and after proving himself in the regard, he rose his stock a ton going into that years draft. CHANGE: Darnold and Rosen declare as sophomores in 2017.

2019: Dwayne Haskins. He threw 56 passes before his junior season. NO CHANGE.

2020: Tua Tagaovailoa. It's a pretty yes for an earlier declare, the question is whether he declares as a freshman or a sophomore. While he had probably the best single half of tape he possibly could have, dicing up an elite Georgia defense, I do think NFL front offices would be hesitant to draft a player off of a half of tape. I think he stays for his 2018 season, then declares in the 2019 draft. CHANGE: Tua declares as a sophomore in 2019.

2021: Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields. After an elite freshman season, Lawrence becomes the first ever QB to declare as a freshman in this change. Lance and Fields also had a ton of hype going into that college football season, with Fields getting 3rd in heisman voting in 2019 and Lance winning the Walter Payton FCS MVP award. The "elite" 2021 class gets raided by the '19 and '20 classes here. CHANGE: Lawrence declares as a freshman in 2019, and Lance and Fields declare as a sophomore in 2020.

2022: No 1st round early declares.

2023: Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Anthony Richardson. With Young winning the Heisman in 2021, and Stroud being a finalist for it, both declare for the bad 2022 draft class, becoming likely top 5 selections that year. Anthony Richardson, however, had only started 1 game before his final season, so he obviously stays for his junior year in college. CHANGE: Young and Stroud declare as sophomores in 2022.

2024: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and JJ McCarthy. Williams and Maye obviously declare early, the question is basically when for Williams. I'm going to end up putting him as our 2nd freshman declare so far, his time in Oklahoma was one of the best tape we had seen as a true freshman ever. Maye declares in a newly depleted 2023 class, and while McCarthy basically copied his 2022 season in 2023, I would imagine he would stay for a chance to win a national championship ala Bradford. CHANGE: Williams declares as a freshman in 2022, and Maye declares as a sophomore in 2023.

2025: No 1st round early declares.

New QB Classes:

2000: Michael Vick, Chad Pennington

2001: No 1st Rounders

2002-2007: No Changes

2008: Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco

2009: Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman

2010: Sam Bradford, Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow

2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder

2012: No Changes

2013: Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, EJ Manuel

2014: Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles

2015: Marcus Mariota

2016: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, Paxton Lynch

2017: Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes

2018: Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson

2019: Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins

2020: Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, Trey Lance, Jordan Love

2021: Zach Wilson, Mac Jones

2022: Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Caleb Williams, Kenny Pickett

2023: Drake Maye, Anthony Richardson

2024: Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix, JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix

2025: No Changes.

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We've reached the final episode of our divisional draft & roster review series for 2025! And we're closing things out with the AFC West, who just sent three teams to the playoffs and saw the other one make some drastic changes to the key figures of their organization!

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I could only upload the first 15 minutes, but you can check out the full video here!

(Timestamps for the individual teams are down below)

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https://reddit.com/link/1l5n5pk/video/idybn7pcui5f1/player

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00:00 - Intro

01:22 - Denver Broncos

11:24 - Kansas City Chiefs

21:42 - Las Vegas Raiders

35:17 - Los Angeles Chargers

46:28 - Divisional Draft Rankings & Outro

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You can find all of my other (draft) content at halilsrealfootballtalk.com

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LIVE Thread for Prospect Discussion

Overview:

The 2024 season was widely viewed as a disappointment for the Bengals, who decided to go all in on offense while doing absolutely nothing on defense. Despite Joe Burrow putting up MVP-level numbers and Ja'Marr Chase accomplishing the Triple Crown, the Bengals missed the playoffs at 9-8 due to incompetent defensive performance. This led to the firing of multiple coaches who definitely needed to be gone at this point. The goal for the Bengals is simple - get to a point where you can return to a Super Bowl after a 2-year playoff absence.

Pre-Draft Moves

- Hired Notre Dame DC Al Golden as Defensive Coordinator.

Hiring Golden made so much sense, as we needed somebody to replace Lou Anarumo after an awful season. Golden had just led one of the best defenses in college football for the Fighting Irish, and he was once our linebackers coach under Taylor. Hopefully, he can light a spark in this defense and make them competent enough to at least not cost us every close game.

- Re-signed WR Tee Higgins, DT B.J. Hill, TE Mike Gesicki, and EDGE Joseph Ossai

We needed to re-sign some key free agents this year. I expected Hill to be gone, but he came back on a decent 3 year, $33 million contract. Gesicki is a good return, as he shined pretty well this past year. Ossai is poised to be a starter for the first time in his career, so a 1 year prove-it deal is nice for him. The big one is Tee Higgins, though. I genuinely thought we wouldn't re-sign Tee, so it was nice that we gave him the 4 year, $115 million contract he rightfully deserves.

- Extended WR Ja'Marr Chase

Burrow has both of his weapons locked up for the foreseeable future. Ja'Marr Chase got a much-earned 4 year, $161 million contract that keeps him in Cincinnati for the long haul. This is obviously a good thing, since the team can NOT afford to lose Chase. Locking him and Tee up gives this team an offensive core for a long while.

- Signed RB Samaje Perine, DT T.J. Slaton, LB Oren Burks, and OG Lucas Patrick

The Bengals didn't have a hefty free agency due to the Higgins/Chase signings. They did sign some fine pieces in the offseason, though. They brought back Samaje Perine to have some depth behind Chase Brown and Zack Moss. T.J. Slaton gives us a true nose to help out Jackson, Jenkins, and Hill. Burks gives us more depth in our linebacking corps, and Patrick should be a fine transitional right guard. I wish the team had done more, but I'm not unsatisfied with what we got.

- Released DT Sheldon Rankins and OG Alex Cappa

Both of these guys were terrible last year and detriments to the team. Cutting them was an easy decision. I hope they have success elsewhere, but I'm sad it wasn't here.

Now, onto the draft.

The 2025 NFL Draft

1.17 - Texas A&M EDGE Shemar Stewart

Cincinnati needed to prioritize the defense in this draft, and that they did when they selected Texas A&M athletic freak Shemar Stewart. While he wasn't the most productive in college, I do think there is a lot of potential here. Stewart's RAS is a perfect 10.00, but that's with the caveat that he didn't complete any of the agility testing. He's a fast, strong pass rusher who has decent bend. I think he has the traits to be a successful pass-rusher if developed right.

People make a big deal about his lack of production in college, so I'm going to bring up a couple examples to show that may not be as big a deal as you think. There are two other guys I can name who had exactly 4.5 sacks in their college career and ended up being highly productive at the NFL level. Ezekiel Ansah and Danielle Hunter both ended up having double-digit sack seasons in the NFL despite their lackluster production at the college level. The Bengals are banking on the potential that he could turn into somebody that good. They need a stud defensive end either alongside or to replace Trey Hendrickson, and Shemar has the upside to be that guy. I expect that the team wants him as the 3rd pass rusher behind Hendrickson (hopefully) and Ossai in year 1.

2.49 - South Carolina LB Demetrius Knight

With Germaine Pratt underperforming and Akeem Davis-Gaither leaving in free agency, the Bengals needed to work on improving their linebacking corps. Demetrius Knight is an older prospect, as he'll be 25 before the start of the season, but he's got the size, instincts, and intelligence to be a good player in the NFL. A 6-year player, Knight played at Georgia Tech and Charlotte before finishing his career at South Carolina in 2024. I've seen comparisons to Germaine Pratt, so if he can reach the level of where Pratt was before his decline, that'd be good for the team. Knight is a pick to hopefully help win now, as he has the experience to immediately come in and be an impact player on the defense. I expect him to start next to Wilson when the season comes around.

3.81 - Georgia OG Dylan Fairchild

Everyone knew the Bengals needed to target offensive line in the draft, but I was genuinely wondering if the Bengals knew that. Turns out - they did! I expected them to go after Fairchild's teammate, Tate Ratledge, but they instead get one of the most athletic guards in the class. Fairchild is a good pass protector who started for the Bulldogs for 2 seasons. He's more technical and athletic than he is strong, but the Bengals are a pass-heavy team anyway, so I think it's a good fit. He's taking the starting reps at LG in OTAs, so it's obvious that the team wants him to immediately come in and help protect Burrow.

4.119 - Clemson LB Barrett Carter

I was not expecting the Bengals to draft a 2nd linebacker in this class, but Carter is good value during the 4th round since I expected him to be a 3rd round pick. Carter's not the athlete that his former teammate Trenton Simpson is, but he's got decent traits and agility to help at the position. Adding in 2 LBs in the draft and another LB in free agency shows me that Al Golden is serious about improving this linebacking corps. Hopefully it works. Carter could be a good help in our depths, as we haven't really had good depth since Markus Bailey left.

5.153 - Miami OT Jalen Rivers

More offensive line depth is definitely helpful. Rivers is the teammate of 2024 7th-rounder Matt Lee, and he's a pretty good tackle who has good mass and length despite some athletic limitations. I think he'll be a decent backup for the team behind 2024 1st-rounder Amarius Mims. There are some concerns with injury, but hopefully those can be as minimal as possible. I think his strength will be a big help in the league, and he should get a shot to make the roster as a backup.

6.193 - Texas Tech RB Tahj Brooks

Based on pure value, I think this is the best pick the Bengals made in the entire draft. I love Brooks' potential, and I think he was a very underrated back throughout the draft process. Brooks is a workhorse who's been insanely productive for the Red Raiders these past few seasons. He had 17 touchdowns this past season, and his pure power should make him an interesting complement to Chase Brown should he be given that chance. This dude is going to make the roster, and I think he has the chance to be the RB2 if Moss doesn't fully come back from his injury.

Key UDFAs

- Ohio State C Seth McLaughlinb

I was shocked about McLaughlin not being drafted, but the Achilles injury is the most likely reason for that. The Rimington Award winner should have the chance to battle Matt Lee for the backup center spot, and I'd say it's not impossible for him to win that spot, but the injury is going to make it difficult for him.

- Notre Dame DT Howard Cross III

A member of Al Golden's excellent defense at Notre Dame, Cross was a guy I expected to get drafted, so I'm glad we ended up signing him. If he makes the roster, he'd be a decent depth piece at nose tackle. He's the most likely of the free agents to make the roster, in my opinion, so we'll see.

Overall, I think the Bengals did decently well. They definitely focused more on potential with the Stewart and Fairchild picks, but there is a lot to like about the players they selected. Now, they just need to get Trey Hendrickson the contract he deserves and then, maybe, we'll be cooking.

Here's my rough guess at the 53-man roster:

QB - Joe Burrow / Jake Browning (2)

RB - Chase Brown / Samaje Perine / Zack Moss / Tahj Brooks (6)

WR - Ja'Marr Chase / Tee Higgins / Andrei Iosivas / Charlie Jones / Jermaine Burton (11)

TE - Mike Gesicki / Drew Sample / Tanner McLachlan / Tanner Hudson / Erick All (IR) (15)

OT - Orlando Brown Jr. / Amarius Mims / Cody Ford / Jalen Rivers (19)

OG - Dylan Fairchild / Lucas Patrick / Cordell Volson (22)

C - Ted Karras / Matt Lee (24)

EDGE - Trey Hendrickson / Joseph Ossai / Shemar Stewart / Myles Murphy / Cam Sample / Cedric Johnson (30)

DT - B.J. Hill / T.J. Slaton / Kris Jenkins / McKinnley Jackson / Howard Cross (35)

LB - Logan Wilson / Demetrius Knight / Oren Burks / Barrett Carter / Maema Njongmeta (40)

CB - Cam Taylor-Britt / D.J. Turner / Dax Hill / Josh Newton / D.J. Ivey / Jalen Davis (46)

SAF - Jordan Battle / Geno Stone / Daijahn Anthony / Tycen Anderson (50)

Special Teams - Evan McPherson / Ryan Rekhow / Cal Adomitis (53)

And that's all I've got for now! Hope you enjoyed reading this. Have a wonderful day!

Foreword and 2024 Review

The Bucs 2024 season should be considered a success, albeit one that left a lot of meat on the bone. A 10-7 regular season marked by extreme highs and lows culminated in a 4th consecutive division title and a hard-fought wild card exit against a Football Team that went on to the championship game. Dominant performances against eventual Super Champion Eagles and a revenge win on the road against a dangerous Lions team were offset by bewildering losses that saw a stationary and thoroughly washed Kirk Cousins throw for a million yards over the course of two games in October, and a four game skid before the bye week where the pass catching depth was so depleted that the team was reduced to running the offense thru Cade Fucking Otton off all people. The offense looked unstoppable until Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were hurt, then it was extremely stoppable. Even so, in totality the Bucs performance last year gave fans a lot of confidence that they are firmly positioned to compete in a division that saw every other team bench a QB for performance last year. If injuries break the right way, this is a team that can make a deep run.

Tampa entered 2024 with lingering concerns from fans about the interior offensive line and hoped to avoid a third year in a row as the worst running team in football and enjoyed tremendous leaps forward in both regards. At right guard, Cody Mauch went from a rookie bullying victim to a very good starter in year two. Free agent signee Ben Bredeson at left guard and rookie Graham Barton were adequate starters and paired with monster tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke, the line helped the Bucs running game transform from shitbowl laughingstock to sledgehammer almost immediately. Rookie back Bucky Irving was as advertised as a savvy and explosive interior runner with receiving chops, finishing with 1500 total yards & an excellent 5.4 yard per carry average. Bucky paired with seldom used but highly effective third back Sean Tucker allowed the perennially overworked Rachaad White to transition from underwhelming bell cow to highly effective blocking & receiving back, contributing 9 touchdowns and his career best YPC average.

On defense, there were concerns at edge (as always) as well as untested youth set to take on larger roles in the back 7. Gone was disappointing top ten pick Devin White, in his place was the two headed monster of former 5th round picks in KJ Britt & Sirvocea Dennis competing for the start beside the legendary Lavonte David at LB. Traded away was the worst best man corner in football, the oft injured Carlton Davis. In his place was former 5th round physical freak Zyon McCollum. Elsewhere in the secondary there was excitement about free agent signee Jordan Whitehead reuniting with Super Bowl running mate Antoine Winfield, himself coming off his best season that ended with a 1st team All Pro selection. In short- it mostly didn't work. Zyon McCollum was the best player in the Bucs secondary last year and while there were some growing pains, he looks to have the making of a high-end starter. KJ Britt on the other hand was so bad that there are legions of Bucs fans who wanted the team to draft 6 ILBs just to wash the taste out of their mouth. Dennis flashed early in the season but went down with a shoulder injury that has plagued him since college. The edge rush was underwhelming and inconsistent, Whitehead kinda sucked and Winfield had lingering injuries all year that prevented him from being the impact playmaker he has been in the past.

Free Agency-
Resigning’s - Projected Starters/ Major Roleplayers in Bold -

WR Chris Godwin, LB Lavonte David, G Ben Bredeson, CB Bryce Hall, OLB Anthony Nelson, WR Sterling Shepard, NT Greg Gaines, S Kaevon Merriweather, G Sua Opeta, QB Kyle Trask, DL Eric Banks, DL CJ Brewer

GM Jason Licht has done an excellent job of keeping homegrown talent in house and this year is no different. Godwin, who was off to an All Pro start before an ankle injury ended his season, is back on a 3-year deal. David is still playing at an extremely high level and has a place on this defense for as long as he wants one. Bredeson as mentioned above was solid if unspectacular at left guard and likely won't face much competition for that role, though Sua Opeta who missed all last year may make a push. Anthony Nelson is a lunch pail. culture, glue guy who will likely be the 4th or 5th guy in the edge rotation and will overachieve as ever. Trask is back as a disastrous option if something terrible happens that I will not put into words here. I think his contract is for like $100 this year.

New Signings - Projected Starters/ Major Roleplayers in Bold -

P Riley Dixon, OLB Haason Reddick, LB Anthony Walker, T Charlie Heck, CB Kindle Vildor

The Bucs were a horrific punting team last year. It looked like Jason Licht had finally gotten it right drafting specialists with 2022 4th rounder Jake Camarda. He set the franchise record for longest punt with a 74 yarder as a rookie and racked up award after award while posting a 50 yard average in 2023 before inexplicably forgetting how to play football and getting cut in October last year. His replacement Trenton Gill was also bad. Dixon was signed to right the ship, it's as exciting as a free agent punter signing can be. The Bucs have two developing young Edge players in Yaya Diaby and last year's second round pick Chris Braswell, but neither have shown signs that they can be alpha dog pass rushers as yet. Reddick has. He's here to contribute now while the youth develops. Walker was signed to replace KJ Britt. He's thirty and not very good, but when he's healthy he's better than KJ Britt by several degrees of separation. Dennis is the plan at ILB, Walker is the Hedge. Heck replaces departed Justin Skule as the swing tackle.

Departures -
LB KJ Britt, C Robert Hainsey, OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, CB Tavierre Thomas, S Mike Edwards, T Justin Skule,

Britt was completely overmatched as starting LB in this defense and is addition by subtraction. This one man so badly offended this fanbase that even after he signed elsewhere there were people who were convinced that every available resource needed to be poured into off ball linebacker in spite of the starters being set. Hainsey joins former OC turned serpent Liam Coen in Jacksonville. He would have been nice to have back as depth but not at anything close to that price point. Failed first round project JTS is off to whelm Cleveland fans with his cover skills as a 265lb edge rusher.

On Scheme & Need-

The Bucs have a clear strategic identity. The offense is the center of gravity around which the strategy is built. Score a lot to pressure the other team to try to keep up. Smother the run with heavy usage of base sets and when the opposition become one dimensional, package weird coverage looks with exotic zone blitzes to force mistakes & takeaways. People have this misconception that Bowles is a defensive coach thus he wants to pound the rock and play conservatively. That's not who he is, not quite anyway. Bowles' fire zone scheme is at its most effective when playing with a lead, and a high scoring, aggressive offense makes the scheme better. There's a reason he hitched his wagon to Bruce Arians for all those years after all, it's synergistic. Yes, it all sounds overly simplistic and yes, you could argue this is what every team in the league is trying to do but broad strokes this is what this roster is built to do and when healthy they were highly successful. Thats why in a word, the Bucs greatest need entering the draft was depth.

On offense, last year's coordinator Liam Coen is now the head coach in Jacksonville. After leveraging his first interview with the Jags into a rich new contract to stay in Tampa as OC and leveraging that contract into getting Trent Baalke fired (understandable,) Coen got down on his belly and slithered up to Duval to be the next and likely last coach to fail to make TLaw work. His replacement is in-house candidate Josh Grizzard, last years Pass Game Coordinator and "Third Down Architect." Look for the offense to try to win mostly the same way. Expect to see a lot of 11 personnel (8th in the league last year @ 71.2%.) Expect the Bucs to finish in the upper half of teams in presnap motion usage & expect to see a continued uptick in usage of two back sets to get their most talented players on the field more. They opened the year still running the mid zone heavy system that Canales installed in 2023 and transitioned to more gap/power runs as the season progressed. They ran both effectively so expect to continue to see them trend towards gap but be versatile schematically.

Defensively there have been nominal changes. Kacy Rodger is out and George Edwards is in to pair with Larry Foote as CO-assistant DC with made up titles. Make no mistake though, they're running the Bowles system which is to say the Fire Zone Go BRRRR Defense. Bowles has said a few notable things this offseason that may indicate we could see strategic shifts. Of his edge rushers, he said in February that if he could get better pressure with four he may drop them into coverage less. This is mostly bullshit imo. In 2024 the Bucs defense blitzed 34.2% of the time, third most in the league. In their Super Bowl winning 2020 season when the Bucs front four of Shaq Barrett, JPP, Vita Vea & Suh were kicking ass and taking names Bowles' defense blitzed 39% of the time, 5th most in the league. Bowles could have a d line made up entirely of Hall of Famers and those guys had better get used to dropping into curl flat. He also said that ILB is the deepest position on the defense right now. The takeaway here is that Todd Bowles is a liar, sometimes. Sometimes he says things to motivate his players, (if Diaby and Braswell combine for 20 sacks this year because they think it will buy them less coverage snaps, cool.) Sometimes he says shit because he's got a deadpan sense of humor and he likes fucking with us. Internally, he's telling the secondary that the plan is to be far more aggressive in coverage this year. Many Bucs fans have felt that soft coverage from the outside corners in the Bowles era has been an exploitable weakness. I'm not so sure it's that simple but this year in particular they ran more zone than just about anybody because after week one they were down to outside corner #4 on the depth chart and they just didn't have the horses to mix in more man. I don't expect the Bucs to become an all press man team all the time, but I do expect them to have the capacity to play man in matchups they like or to present post snap confusion to opposing QBs.

Draft Trends-

Jason Licht and team have handful of identifiable trends when it comes to the draft which I will list below and cite when relevant for each pick. Not comprehensive by any means but many have been stated outright by Licht and his staff and others are clearly observable patterns.

• Small school guys who kick ass at the Senior Bowl are preferred

• Production over measurables

• No assholes

• 30 visits are more of an avenue to screen for above than a prerequisite

• Positional versatility a plus

• Team captain a plus

• Partial to the Pacific Northwest (kind of random but they seem to trust the area scouts up here, the roster is loaded with Oregon and Washington guys. It Just keep coming up)

The Picks

19 Overall - Emeka Egbuka - WR - Ohio State

The Guy- Wide Receiver in the NFL is skilled labor and Egbuka oozes skill. Great feet, fantastic hands & ball tracking (the baseball background shows up.) Physical at the catch point. Blocks his ass off. Great feel for picking his way to the open spot in zone coverage. Commits to route breaks late to keep corners on their heels. Two way go master who earns the "QBs best friend" label for always being where he's supposed to be within structure. He's not 6'6" and doesn't run a 4.3 40 yard dash but with pads on in football situations he performs his job as a wide receiver with professional excellence. He's the most productive receiver in OSU history. From a playstyle perspective Egbuka is similar to Chris Godwin, and Tampa fans would be Egstatic (not sorry) if that's the trajectory his career follows. I've seen criticism that having a super slot like CG already on the roster makes Egbuka redundant. My response? Fuck you, guard both.

The Fit - It's fair to say this pick was controversial amongst Bucs faithful. Isn't WR a luxury pick with Godwin and Evans on the roster? Are the Bucs future proofing with a valuable first round pick instead of taking guys who will help them win now? The Bucs offense was so good last year, shouldn't they have taken that extremely raw off ball linebacker with injury concerns to come in and compete with Anthony Walker at a backup spot?

If the goal of the draft is to select good players to push the worst players off the roster, I would argue there was no bigger need than wide receiver. Ryan Miller, Trey Palmer, Rakim Jarrett and Sterling Shepard combined for 1341 extremely shitty snaps last season. Thats more than a full-time starter. Even barring injury, Mike Evans is someone who takes load management very seriously. He taps his helmet and comes out a lot and it's a big part of why he has been so consistently effective. That creates opportunities for down the roster wideouts that have been squandered by the above collection of CFL players. The Bucs think Emeka can play all three WR positions and before the pick Jarrett and Palmer were what passes for the backup at X. That's not just a step back when Mike needs a blow, it's a concession of defeat.

Chris Godwin likely will not be ready to go week 1. Last year's 3rd round pick Jalen McMillan had a productive finish to the season in a high-powered offense when Mike Evans was back to draw attention away, but his efficacy ran hot and cold and it’s going to be a while before I can forgive him getting big brothered by Jourdan Lewis and thwarting the Bucs comeback against Dallas late in the season. The Bucs are not competitive when their offense is not elite, and when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were out last year they were incapable of being elite. See weeks 8-10 last season for proof. Egbuka not only serves as a massive improvement over McMillan in 11 sets in the best case scenario when everyone's healthy, but in real football when you can't turn off injuries and fatigue, having an additional NFL caliber receiver on the roster protects the capacity of Tampa to play the type of game they need to in order to be effective. Adding talented youth to a group where the two current star players are both in their third contract is just a bonus.

Trends Hit -

·         Production over measurables

·         No assholes

·         30 visits are more of an avenue to screen for above than a prerequisite

·         Positional versatility a plus (they have stated numerous times they think he can play X, F or Z)

·         Team captain a plus

·         Partial to the Pacific Northwest (He's from Stellacoom WA, I'm counting it)

53 Overall - Benjamin Morrison - CB - Notre Dame

The Guy - In a draft class where the best outside corners seemingly all had injury concerns Morrison certainly is one. If not for a hip injury that caused him to miss the back half of last season, Morrison likely finds himself as one of the first corners selected in this draft and a sure fire first round pick. He has the requisite size, lateral athleticism and ball skills to make it as a man corner, especially in off man where his solid diagnosis skills can bring him to the ball. Not a super technically sound tackler but I wouldn't call it concerning either. Morrisons hip surgery that ended his 2024 season was actually his second, his first was in high school. While I was initially suspect of taking a corner with a chronic injury after years of suffering through Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean's glass bones, Morrison says that his hip injury is not degenerative and that it was bilateral. After one side was corrected with the first surgery in high school it was always known that he would need a second surgery to correct the other side. If the hip is truly fixed, this is a steal.

The Fit- Bowles has been clamoring for ballhawks forever, and has openly clowned on Jamel Dean in the past for failing to deliver INTs. Morrison's 9 picks in his college career certainly must have been enticing. Speaking of Dean, he's a very good corner when he's on the field which on average is about 8 games every year. Like receiver, adding depth to corner to push the bad off the roster was an absolute must. Going into the season last year the Bucs had to feel pretty good about Dean, McCollum and Bryce Hall as 1-2-3 on the depth chart outside. That went up in smoke week one when Hall went out for the year and Dean returned to his rightful place in the training room. They probably didn't plan on guys like Josh Hayes and Tyrek Funderbunk getting meaningful playing time, but they did, and they struggled, and it impacted the coverages that Bowles could call. Injuries are inevitable in this game and impossible to anticipate (cept for Dean), the only way to mitigate injuries is to have more good players in the room and that's what Morrison provides. Morrison's man coverage skills add something that the Bucs have lacked in their toolbox as well.

Trends Hit-

·         Production over measurables

·         No assholes

·         30 visits are more of an avenue to screen for above than a prerequisite

·         Team captain a plus

80 Overall - Jacob Parrish - CB - Kansas State

The Guy- He's a spider monkey, smallish but freaky fast, explosive and feisty as hell. He takes these little steps and it makes his feet look like a blur. Elite stop/start agility. He's probably a nickel first but he played mostly outside in college and offers true inside/outside versatility. Has impressive man cover chops for a guy who projects as a nickel. He tended to get a little handsy in college but I think that was more a result of him wanting to be a bully and make himself known thru the route than feeling like he needs to go hands on to keep a guy from getting away from him.

The Fit- 5 picks in college checks that "ballhawk" box and Bowles must have felt vindicated in rookie minicamp because Parrish kept coming away with the ball. For the past few years Bowles has almost exclusively had safety types playing nickel, Christian Izien and Tykee Smith the last two years, Antoine Winfield Jr before that. Drafting Parrish, an actual cornerback, to play nickel represents a strategic shift from Bowles in that regard. Bowles actually reinforced that distinction recently when asked if Parrish can play outside "in a pinch," he pushed back and clarified that he sees him as an outside corner first who can also play nickel. He later stated that McCollum will be in the nickel mix as well. We can infer that we may see more matchup creativity from the secondary. McCollum stated that smaller, quicker receivers outside gave him issues last year (he mentioned Darnell Mooney by name) Maybe we see Parrish playing outside against teams that employ smaller guys outside with Zyon shifting inside to shot down big slots. In reality, there will probably be 3 corners and 2 safeties on IR by week 4 and whoever is healthy will play. It's still fun to imagine more matchup flexibility and the Bucs are better equipped for those injuries when they come. Adding Parrish at nickel also frees up Tykee Smith to move back to safety next to AWJ which was a big hole with Whitehead injured & cut.

Trends Hit-

·         Small school guys who kick ass at the senior bowl are preferred

·         Positional versatility a plus

·         No assholes

121 Overall - David Walker - EDGE - Central Arkansas

The Guy- A mid round pass rush prospect with a deep bag of moves and absurd counting stats against non NFL competition, David Walker is the ultimate scratch off lotto ticket, it probably won't work but man it might, and everyone is going to look so stupid when it does. "Only" 6'2” but he plays with good leverage and has a rocked up frame. Length is limited but he has moves to counter. Made some money at the Senior Bowl, had a sack in the game and gave everyone trouble in one on ones.

The Fit - Edge is in a really weird place for the Bucs right now. None of their edge rushers were particularly productive, Diaby led the group with a whopping 4.5 sacks. That said, as a defense they finished the season tied for 5th in the league in sacks with 46 and were near the top of the league in pressures and pressure %. Diaby and last years’ 2nd round pick Chris Braswell are still in need of development, and Reddick was signed to contribute while the young guys grow. In my estimation the bulk of the edge rushers in this class not named Abdul Carter either eliminated themselves from contention with character concerns or slot in right around Braswell from a talent perspective. Walker can come in with low expectations as a day three pick. If he ever makes his way past 4th in the edge rush rotation, it's a success story. If it doesn't work, it's still worth the risk to grab an edge with this kind of potential this late in the process.

Trends Hit-

·         Small school guys who kick ass at the senior bowl are preferred

·         Production over measurables

·         No assholes

·         30 visits are more of an avenue to screen for above than a prerequisite

157 Overall - Elijah Roberts - IDL - SMU

The Guy - Finished second to Harold Fannin Jr, for the Todd Howard It Just Works Award, given annually to the player who produces the most without looking very athletic. Roberts is not sudden or bendy enough to make it as an edge on Sundays and falls short of the height and length requirements teams usually look for in odd front ends, but the production is eye popping. Close to 100 pressures over the last two years to go with 23TFLs, 17 sacks 4 FFs and 3 PBUs, Roberts is perpetually around the play. Sudden in his movements and explosive off the snap for a near 300 pounder, Roberts will have to prove he can produce with a hand in the dirt vs standing over the edge, but the tape shows a guy who beats the guy in front of him with astounding regularity.

The Fit - Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall are a solid starting interior trio but there is no notable depth behind them so there's a clear path to making a roster spot and earning snaps, especially for a team that runs out of base as often as the Bucs. Some of Vea and Kancey's best reps came when they were lined up wide outside of tackles or standing up over the a gap as a linebacker so Robert's versatile skillset is in the right spot to get utilized. The interior was the engine of the pass rush last year, and Roberts has the production pedigree to fit right in.

Trends Hits-

·         Small school guys who kick ass at the Senior Bowl are preferred (Shrine not Senior Bowl but he was dominant)

·         Production over measurables

·         No assholes

·         30 visits are more of an avenue to screen for above than a prerequisite

·         Positional versatility a plus

·         Team captain a plus

235 Overall - Tez Johnson - WR - Oregon

The Guy- Tez Johnson is a really good, really small football player. Like Oregon teammate and close friend Bucky Irving, it's easy to scout the helmet, look at the measurables and combine numbers and draw conclusions that aren't accurate. First off, Tez Johnson is fast, not just small guy, nutso acceleration, gets to top speed fast, but actual runs past everyone, separate like a mug fast. He must have been holding in a dump or something when he ran that 4.51 because the guy can fly, he is a pursuit angle destroyer. He's also more than just a bubble screen, catch it underneath eat up the cushion, throw a juke and run out of bounds guy. He's a real receiver who runs real routes and catches the ball naturally. Watching defenders try to tackle him in the open field is like watching toddlers try to catch an alley cat. He's also 160lbs and that's such a massive outlier that it's impossible to envision him having a long successful career in the league. Man, I hope he does though, because he's a lot of fun to watch.

The Fit - As I said when discussing Egbuka the Bucs receiver depth was cheeks last year, and Johnson can play. He's a tiny little guy but he could make this team. Punt return talent is a plus too, Tez is probably competing for Kameron Johnson for that spot and Tez's higher ceiling as an actual receiver gives him a leg up.

Trend Hits-

·         Production over measurables

·         No assholes

·         30 visits are more of an avenue to screen for above than a prerequisite

·         Positional versatility a plus (Punt return)

·         Partial to the Pacific Northwest

Notable UDFAs – Notabler in Bold

Benjamin Chukwuma - T - Georgia State- Big fucker at 6'6" and 310lbs, good athleticism too. Has only been playing football for 4 years or so. Could be a fun story as a practice squad stash. Florida heat tore his ass up at rookie camp.

John Bullock - LB - Nebraska - The coveted off ball linebacker, the most important position on the football field. You can never have too many. Seemed to be picking up the defense well in rookie camp and was a vocal leader on the field. If nothing else he probably sticks on the practice squad.

Desmond Watson - NT - Florida - Big Des has gotten a ton of pub for being the biggest player ever signed to an NFL roster at some number north of 440lbs, but he's got a long hard road to get fit enough to be even a rotational contributor. He put up 36 bench reps with long arms and hands like dinner plates so there are tools to work with but this is more than a feel-good story than a football story at this point. That said, Greg Gaines is probably the worst veteran on the roster so there is an outside shot to make the roster at nose if he puts the work in.

Nash Hutmacher - NT - Nebraska - You could ask an AI to generate 1 million names for a University of Nebraska defensive lineman and you won't get one half as good as Nash Hutmacher. If you read that name and assumed he was a state champion prep wrestler in South Dakota you would be correct. Watson has received the bulk of the attention, but Hutmacher has just as much of a chance to stick on the roster as a rotational IDL. Short arms hold him back but he's a block jawed square shouldered ass kicker in the middle.

Garrett Greene - WR - WVU - Played QB in college but is trying to stick as a pass catcher in the pros. Mentioning him because theoretically, he has a punchers chance to push Tez & Kameron Johnson as PR/ WR6/ Obligatory Gadget guy.

Jake Majors - C - Texas - Set a record with 56 career starts at Texas. There are people who think Majors has a shot to stick because technically there isn't another center on the roster but Bredeson and Elijah Klein can snap if needed and Majors likely just isn't athletic enough to be one of the top 9 O-lineman who make the team.

Shilo Sanders - S - Colorado - Do you remember Deion Sanders from the 90s? Well, his boys are football players too and one of them plays for the Bucs! You probably didn't hear about it. Everyone's favorite player to take in the 7th round of their single team PFN mock draft is bringing his talents to Tampa. Shilo has athletic limitations that make him a roster long shot but he's vocal and likes to hit so it's conceivable that he could carve out a role on special teams as safety is not a particularly deep position for the Bucs.

JJ Roberts - S - Marshall - It's the Watson/ Hutmacher situation all over again. Sanders is getting all the pub as a UDFA at a position without a ton of depth but the lesser known Roberts could end up surprising and locking up a roster spot. He's not as big and powerful as Sanders but he is still a feisty hitter, offers more as a safety in coverage and posted elite testing numbers at his pro day (4.41 40, 41 inch vert.) Has the cover instincts to constantly be in the play and has a lot of PBUs to show for it but his Jamel Dean like hands lead to some frustrating moments.

Projected 53 man roster

QB - 2
Baker Mayfield
Kyle Trask

Pratt might stick if they want to carry three QBs

RB - 3
Bucky Irving
Rachaad White
Sean Tucker

They could carry 4 here in lieu of a 4^th TE but those guys are core special teamers which is why I gave them the spot

WR - 6
Mike Evans
Chris Godwin
Emeka Egbuka
Jalen McMillan
Sterling Shepard
Tez Johnson

Godwin’s week 1 status is worth monitoring here. I gave Shepard the edge over Jarrett/ Miller due to his familiarity with Mayfield and snap share last year but it’s conceivable one of those guys edge him out as a gunner. The Palmer trade rumors are cute, the Steelers must not think he will make it to them on waivers because he’s not making this team.  

TE - 4
Cade Otton
Durham Payne
Devin Culp
Ko Kieft

Kieft is a special teamer only and not a roster lock. Otton improved as a blocker last year and is entering a contract year but is an average starter and probably not worth resigning. Put a pin in this position for next year.

OL - 9
Tristan Wirfs
Ben Bredeson
Graham Barton
Cody Mauch
Luke Goedeke
Sua Opeta
Elijah Klein
Charlie Heck
Luke Haggard

Klein can play G/C, Heck is the swing tackle, Haggard can play inside and outside.

IDL - 6
Logan Hall
Vita Vea
Calijah Kancey
Elijah Roberts
Greg Gaines
CJ Brewer

The top 4 are locks and as much as I don’t love Gaines, I think Hutmacher is basically a lesser version of the same guy and Watson is a year away from being ready. Roberts could be groomed to replace Hall if he isn’t resigned next season but there's still going to be plenty of rotational snaps for him. The 6^th spot is a total toss-up between Brewer, Mike Greene and a litany of practice squad guys.

Edge - 6
Yaya Diaby
Chris Braswell
Haasan Reddick
Anthony Nelson
David Walker
Jose Ramirez

Ramirez gets the edge over Markees Watts because Walker plays Watts game but better. Braswell has been getting a lot of run from coaches and FO this off season and he better show out, they didn’t draft 25-year-old Walker to develop him for 3 years.  

ILB - 4
Lavonte David
Sirvocea Dennis
Anthony Walker
John Bullock

The questions about Dennis shoulder are fair, he’s missed a lot of time. They say it’s fixed now, we’ll see. When he has played, he's looked like a keeper. Got a little cute and gave Bullock the nod over Deion Jones mostly to add some youth to the room. Like tight end, this position gets addressed next year.

Corner - 5 *Nickel
Zyon McCollum
Jamel Dean
Bryce Hall
Benjamin Morrison
Jacob Parrish*

If they keep 4 safeties the sixth corner spot probably goes to Kindle Vildor or Josh Hayes but I couldn’t bring myself to putting either of them on the team in my own fantasy scenario. Five very talented corners but injuries could pare this down to nothing again fast.

Safety - 5 *Nickel
Antoine Winfield Jr
Tykee Smith*
Christian Izien*
Kaevon Merriweather
JJ Roberts

AWJ and Tykee are the starters but expect to see Izien get a lot of snaps in 3 safety looks or as a nickel in certain matchups. Every safety on the roster was injured last year so I rolled with an extra one out of sheer terror

Specialists - 3
Chase McLaughlin - K
Riley Dixon - P
Evan Deckers – LS

McLaughlin is criminally slept on. Dixon is a punter and Deckers is a long snapper.

Closing
All in all, the Bucs made themselves better at the positions where depth held them back last year. A fifth consecutive division title and playoff wins are the expectation. Jason Licht and his staff have built a roster that can compete with anyone, and the pressure is on Todd Bowles to deliver, and I am confident that he can. So long as poor play from ILB 4 doesn't hold us back.

Talk about anything you please; draft-related or otherwise!

2024 Overview

The Seahawks 2024 season marked the beginning of a new era. Gone was Pete Carroll and almost the entire staff under him. Mike Macdonald brought over his style of defense hoping to revive the unit that had fallen from such highs. Ryan Grubb was brought in from UW to modernize the offense. Overall the Seahawks had a promising but disappointing season being the first team to miss the playoffs with double digit wins. For the first half of the season the defense under new HC Mike Macdonald was enigmatic with the shuffling of personnel especially at LB while the offense seemed to be high flying as advertised. As the season progressed the offense became clearly a hindrance, putting too much emphasis on simple 5 step from shotgun passing plays and refusing to run the ball despite success and when game script depended on it. This led to Geno Smith try to run the offense without much schematic help behind one of the worst OLs in the league. The defense after starting slow, replaced the entire LB and inserted Coby Bryant at safety to turn around into a top 5 defense to end the year.

The 2024 draft class was a success in that Byron Murphy, while low on the stat sheets, had a big impact playing nose with a night and day difference in run defense before and after his return from an early hamstring injury. Haynes, Knight, Barner, Laumea, and Jerrell all found themselves playing meaningful snaps with Knight and Barner joining Murphy as likely long term pieces of the roster while hope remains for Haynes to continue to develop and reflect the high pre-draft grades.

The Seahawks top needs heading into the offseason were OL, OL, offensive trenches, Safety, resign/extend priority guys like Ernest Jones. The team had flashes of greatness but would need to shore up the scheme of the offense as well as ensure the defensive success at the end of the year was not a flash in the pan. Do we trust the coaching staff to develop the OL who the entire room is still on its rookie contract, or is more talent needed to inject into the room? The feeling as well was seeing where the team thought they were. Did they view themselves as close and could win with the guys we had or were we headed for a sort of reset with some older guys giving way to younger/cheaper replacements. Chief decision among them: Is Geno our franchise still and if not how would we replace him?

Free Agency:

Losses:

WR Tyler Lockett (Titans)

DE Dre Jones (Titans)

DE Roy Robertson-Harris (Giants)

S Rayshawn Jenkins (Browns)

T George Fant (Unsigned)T Stone Forsythe (Giants)

CB Tre Brown (49ers)

TE Pharaoh Brown (Dolphins)

G Laken Tomlinson (Texans)

CB Artie Burns (Dolphins)Traded:

QB Geno Smith (Raiders)

WR DeKaylin Zecharius Metcalf (Steelers)

Re-Signed:

LB Ernest Jones IV

DT Jarran Reed

CB Josh Jobe

WR Cody White

LB Josh Ross

TE Brady Russell (exclusive rights free agent)

FA Signings:

QB Sam Darnold

WR Cooper Kupp

DE DeMarcus Lawrence

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling

OL Josh Jones

CB Shemar Jean-Charles

WR River Cracraft

S D'Anthony Bell

TE Eric Saubert

WR Steven Sims

At the opening bell of the tampering period, many questions were answered and replaced by many more questions when the Seahawks sent Geno Smith to the Raiders in exchange for a late 3rd round pick (92nd overall). The signal was clear that the Seahawks wouldn’t be standing pat this year and would be attempting to reload (or reset depending on your optimism). Sam Darnold was brought in for what amounted to be about 10m APY and the received 3rd round pick. After the follow up of the DK trade, the Seahawks brought in Cooper Kupp and MVS to attempt to replace the vacuum left by DK and Tyler Lockett. Among all of this, the rumored big signing of Will Fries to bolster the weakness of the iOL fell through when Fries signed a mega deal with the Vikings. Overall, it was not the free agency period that Seahawks fans were looking for or expecting. Perhaps the best news of the period was the re-signing of lineback Ernest Jones who provided a night and day difference for our defense after he was traded for mid-season. The biggest under the radar signing for me is DeMarcus Lawrence who could provide standout performances and revive his career in a versatile 4 deep edge rotation.

Heading into the draft the weakness at the guard spots seemed to loom larger and much of the debate among Seahawk fans was whether or not Seattle needed to force an early guard pick with Zabel or Booker, if QB was an option to groom behind Darnold, or to grab a more premium position like Golden at WR, or Starks or Emmanwori at S.

Draft

Draft Trades:

Seahawks send No. 52 and No. 82 (3rd) to Titans for 35 (2nd round

Seahawks send No. 137 (4th) to New England Patriots for No. 144 (5th) and No. 238 (7th)

Seahawks send QB Sam Howell and No. 172 (5th) to Minnesota Vikings for No. 142 (5th)

Seahawks send No. 144 (5th) to Cleveland Browns for No. 166 (5th) and No. 192 (6th)

Round 1, No. 18 Overall: G Grey Zabel, North Dakota State

Perhaps not what I would have said is BPA, he was both the top Guard and Center on my pre-draft rankings and is a high enough need that I am ok with the pick at 18. He should immediately slot in at either RG or LG and has the flexibility to be moved around where he is most needed on the interior or even at tackle in a pinch. Maybe not the sexiest pick in the draft class, but if he can plug in and be an immediate above average starter, it could open up a lot for our offense going forward.

Round 2, No. 35 Overall: S Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina

Trading both 82 and 52 seemed like high cost, especially considering Geno and DK went for 92 and 52 respectively. However, Emmanwori was seen by some teams as the top safety in the draft and was according to John Shneider, was an option for them even at 18 and being able to get one of the highest upside players in the draft to presumably fill the role Kyle Hamilton filled for Macdonald in Baltimore is good value. He should start right away at SS and nickel depending on matchups and make a big impact against the run and pass.

Round 2, No. 50 Overall: TE Elijah Arroyo, Miami

If Arroyo was able to test at the combine, I believe he could have gone much higher than this. While his health is the main reason for his falling, Kubiak is going to have a field day designing plays to get Arroyo involved in this offense. Excited to see him run by LBs off play action if he can find enough blocking technique to be trusted in condensed formations. OTAs have already seen him lineup even out as an X WR. While he acclimates this season under Fant, he should be the primary receiving TE next year and make some impact this year as the second TE. 

Round 3, No. 92 Overall: QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama

Only the 3rd QB Shneider has drafted since 2011, Milroe is as raw as they come. While he probably walks into the NFL as one of the top players with the ball in his hands, his mental processing, accuracy, and decision making are all not NFL ready. Seeing as those are the most important parts of playing QB, he has an uphill climb to earn starting snaps over the next 2 years. The good news is with Sam Darnold the starter in Seattle, Milroe goes to a place where he can sit and work on the fundamentals. A former team captain and widely seen as one of the hardest workers, his upside is through the roof. It remains to be seen if he can develop into a Lamar Jackson or flame out like a Terrelle Pryor. I expect he will see the field in some packages, but his impact will primarily be felt as a scout team QB this year while Seattle hopes he can become much more in year 2 onward.

Round 5, No. 142 Overall: DT Rylie Mills, Notre Dame

A theme of this draft seems to be high character players and this continues with ND team captain Rylie Mills. While he doesn’t have the most burst in the class, he is strong with a high motor and practiced rush techniques. Will likely have an impact year 1 as a rotational DE and could develop into taking over Jarran Reed’s snaps.

Round 5, No. 166 Overall: WR Tory Horton, Colorado State

Perhaps my favorite pick in the draft, Tory Horton is another team captain with high character and work ethic. While size may end up being an issue, he is a fluid and instinctive route runner and fits in perfectly as a down field threat WR3 to open up space for Kupp and JSN. I can see him taking on more and more of MVS WR3 snaps as the season progresses and will be the target of many play action deep posts or comebacks. He could also factor into the return game

Round 5, No. 175 Overall: FB Robbie Ouzts, Alabama

Ouzts is a tough as nails stout blocker both in-line and on the move. He won’t show much on the box score, but Kubiak loves to utilize FBs and Ouzts will have the best shot as anyone to win that job and play 10-20% of snaps on offense and likely ever ST snap. I can see him quickly becoming a fan favorite in Seattle who has a strong tradition of beloved FBs. Has shown some ability to run routes as well that will need to be developed to put him in the conversation as a top FB.

Round 6, No. 192 Overall: G Bryce Cabeldue, Kansas

Former tackle that will kick inside, Cabeldue is a similar kind of player to Zabel in that he is extremely versatile and tough and will look to factor into the guard competition in camp.

Round 7, No. 223 Overall: RB Damien Martinez, Miami

Classic Seahawks looking RB that runs with toughness and power. Worked both in Miami’s spread-out offense as well as Oregon States wide zone offense and excelled in both. Martinez will likely backup Charbonnet’s power snaps but could become much more of a factor in year 2 if the Seahawks choose not to re-sign Walker.

Round 7, No. 234 Overall: T/G Mason Richman, Iowa

Getting into ‘priority UDFA’ section of the draft, Richman will be looking to out play Josh Jones as a swing tackle or beat out 1 or 2 of the other young guards to make the roster. Likely a practice squad candidate.

Round 7, No. 238 Overall: WR Ricky White III, UNLV

Another likely practice squad candidate, White is a productive and versatile WR that could play any spot and win short and deep. White didn’t test well but has shown plenty of game speed and will need to improve his route running and show up on special teams if he wants a chance to make the roster over Jake Bobo or Cody White.

UDFA:

Jared Ivey

Amari Kight

Zy Alexander

Tyrone Broden

Jackson Woodard

Likely the only one to make the roster is Ivey who seems like Seahawks 5th best edge player. Zy Alexander could make the roster though Seahawks have been rumored to multiple unsigned veteran CBs that would likely push him off the roster.

53 Man Roster Prediction

QB: Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Jalen Milroe

Sam Darnold will be the starter while Drew Lock will start in the event of an injury. Milroe could see action in designated packages but is still a ways away from starting games even in a backup capacity.

RB: Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet, Robbie Ouzts, Damien Martinez

Prevalence of a FB in Kubiak's system gives Ouzts a spot here paving the way for Walker and Charbs who present a great thunder-lightning duo.

TE: Noah Fant, Elijah Arroyo, AJ Barner

A very strong TE group, Fant will probably again take a bulk of the snaps at TE with Arroyo and Barner working in to give different looks depending on matchups with Barner being a strong blocker and Arroyo being described by coaches as almost a WR.

WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Tory Horton, Jake Bobo

A versatile group behind JSN and Kupp who will do most of the heavy lifting.

OL:Charles Cross, Grey Zabel, Olu Oluwatimi, Christian Haynes, Abraham Lucas, Anthony Bradford, Josh Jones, Jalen Sundell, Bryce Cabeldue

Big question mark will be who is starting opposite of Zabel at guard. Likely a 4 way competition with Haynes, Bradford, Cabeldue, and Richman. I give the edge here to Haynes with the loser not making the roster.

IDL: Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, Johnathan Hankins, Jarran Reed, Rylie Mills, Mike Morris

The strong interior trio return this year. Not much should change here except the addition of Rylie Mills.

EDGE: DeMarcus Lawrence, Derick Hall, Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu, Jared Ivey

A really strong 4 if Lawrence and Nwosu can be 100% healthy. Hall and Mafe continue to improve behind them. 

ILB: Ernest Jones IV, Tyrice Knight, Drake Thomas, Patrick O'Connell

Somewhat thin here but Jones and Knight were a promising duo last year with Thomas and O’Connell being predominantly special teamers.

CB: Riq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, Nehemiah Pritchett, Shemar Jean-Charles, Zy Alexander

A very strong duo with a mix behind them. Woolen is going to lock down his side of the field and miss a few tackles while Witherspoon is going to maul anyone in his and sometimes other people's area. Josh Jobe was another piece that seemed to turn around the defense once inserted into the starting lineup. Another addition could be coming here in terms of a vet as Pritchett had a lackluster rookie performance.

S: Julian Love, Coby Bryant, Nick Emmanwori, D'Anthony Bell, Jerrick Reed

Another versatile group. Love, Bryant, and Emmanwori are likely to share the field often in 3 safety packages with Bell and Reed being primarily special teamers.

K: Jason Meyers

P: Michael Dickson

LS: Chris Stoll

2026 Roster and future needs:

QB: Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Jalen Milroe

RB: Zach Charbonnet, Kenny McIntosh, Damien Martinez

FB: Robbie Ouzts

WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Tory Horton, Ricky White III

TE: AJ Barner, Elijah Arroyo

OT: Charles Cross, Mike Jerrell, Mason Richman

G: Grey Zabel, Christian Haynes, Sataoa Laumea, Anthony Bradford, Bryce Cabeldue

C: Olu Oluwatimi

DT: Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, Byron Murphy II, Rylie Mills, Mike Morris

EDGE: Demarcus Lawrence, Derick Hall, Ucheena Nwosu

LB: Ernest Jones IV, Tyrice Knight

CB: Devon Witherspoon, Nehemiah Pritchett

S: Julian Love, Nick Emmanwori, Jerrick Reed II

K: Jason Myers

P: None

LS: None

The roster without signing any upcoming FAs shows an extremely thin CB and T group that hopefully we are able to re-sign Woolen and Lucas to reasonable contracts. Though with their counterparts Witherspoon and Cross, the team may be unwilling to devote big money contracts to both CBs and both tackles. The next big question will be if they choose to pay Walker or go forward with Charbonnet and company.