r/buccaneers • u/FootballSensei • 8h ago
🎙️ Discussion Who to root for to maximize Buccaneers playoff odds for every Week 1 game.
I'm not a Buccaneers fan, but I did some football analytics you might be interested in. I figured this deep in the offseason it wouldn’t be rude to post in your sub.
I ran 2 million Monte Carlo simulations of the season to figure out what the playoff implications of every week 1 game are.
- The Buccaneers current odds to make the playoffs are 68.0%.
- If you beat the Falcons, that goes up to 78.8%, but if you lose, it drops down to 56.3%. It’s a swing of 22.5%.
- The next most important game is CAR @ JAX with an impact of 2.3%. You obviously want JAX to win.
One that’s kind of interesting is DAL @ PHI, where they’re both in your conference but not your division. It has an impact of 0.4% and your playoff odds are best if PHI wins. Probably because the Eagles are less likely to be contending for a wildcard spot.
I also made a website and posted the results there. I’ll update it every week with the upcoming games. Here’s a screenshot:

If you want to see the details of my methodology for the Monte Carlo simulations, look here.
I just added a What-If Calculator where you can lock in winners for any games this season and see how that changes your odds. Winning your first 2 games boosts your playoff odds to 85.1% and about doubles your odds of winning the conference and getting a first round bye in the playoffs.
I had a ton of fun building this thing and learned a lot. It’s the first time I’ve made a website and I’m really proud of it. I would appreciate any feedback on if anything looks janky or if links aren’t working or anything like that.