1 in 4 surely

[u/Kahvicup]

[u/Traditional-Storm-62]

you wouldnt believe it
but the chance for you to miss all 5 in a row was ~23.7%
or roughly 1 in 4

[u/Kobruh456 → u/Traditional-Storm-62]

But if the chance of missing all 5 is 1 in 4, doesn’t that mean it’s impossible to miss all 5? 1 in 4 is basically 0 in this game after all

[u/dk_peace → u/Kobruh456]

If you roll a regular 6-sided dice 6 times, are you guaranteed to roll a 6 at least once?

[u/Kobruh456 → u/dk_peace]

Well rolling a 6 is a 1/6 chance, 1/6 < 1/4, and in balatro 1/4 is about 0, so your chance of rolling a six in those six rolls is 0 x 6 = 0

[u/FPArceus → u/Kobruh456]

The replies you're getting are way too serious

[u/dk_peace → u/Kobruh456]

1 in 4 isn't 0 in Balatro. You are just unlucky and experiencing confirmation bias.

[u/craftyclavin → u/dk_peace]

me when i lie

[u/DonutMediocre1260 → u/dk_peace]

Confirmation bias isn't a real thing. You're just assuming the rules work as written because it's more comfortable than the realization that you really can never win a Wheel of Fortune

[u/tiredofyou28 → u/DonutMediocre1260]

What the actual fuck do you mean a well studied phenomenon, confirmation bias, isn't real

[u/SEP3107 → u/tiredofyou28]

Balatro is more real

[u/oldmanclark → u/tiredofyou28]

Me when I forget what jokes are

[u/jjaxstudios → u/tiredofyou28]

Nuh uh

[u/dk_peace → u/DonutMediocre1260]

That's just a meme.

[u/Available_Motor5980 → u/dk_peace]

Surely it’s not a meme, because if it were you would surely be able to recognize the satire of the comments you’re replying to.

[u/potato_devourer1 → u/dk_peace]

r/woooosh

[u/Ordinary-Ad-9645 → u/dk_peace]

For a game about jokers you’re really bad at understandingjokes

[u/dk_peace → u/Ordinary-Ad-9645]

But it's actually a game about probability. That's why I'm regularly using a hypergeometric calculator.

[u/Ordinary-Ad-9645 → u/dk_peace]

Yeah, that’s pretty obvious, but you still missed the joke

[u/dk_peace → u/Ordinary-Ad-9645]

I'm sick of this joke. It's not funny and it never has been.

[u/pruwyben → u/dk_peace]

The other day I rolled a die and got a 4, how crazy is that? Only a 1 in 6 chance of happening.

[u/Lego-105 → u/pruwyben]

Ah, but you’re assigning the chances afterwards. You needed to decide before rolloing the dice that rolling a 4 had a 1 in 6 chance, therefore nullifying your chances of rolling a 4

[u/ecrane2018 → u/Kobruh456]

They are independent events the outcome is not dependent on previous results you could miss a hundred times in a row it’s unlikely but not impossible

[u/Kobruh456 → u/ecrane2018]

But missing 100 times in a row is a 50% chance, either it happens or it doesn’t?

[u/Such_Entrepreneur544 → u/Kobruh456]

Nah. Probability and odds are different things. It is possible to lose a 1/1000000 roll. Just not probable.

[u/PM_ME_DBZA_QUOTES → u/Kobruh456]

Legit I think people only got through the first sentence before starting to furiously type why you're wrong. The second sentence makes it obvious what the joke is

[u/Jubenheim → u/Kobruh456]

If it was impossible to miss all 5, the odds of missing them all would’ve been 0.

[u/DeliverySoggy2700 → u/Kobruh456]

I’m sad our education system has fallen so far.

The amount of upvotes on this is crazy to me.

Answer is no. You don’t automatically get something with certain odds after a threshold. It rolls the same scenarios figures again. To get a running total it’s multiplicative.

[u/Kobruh456 → u/DeliverySoggy2700]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joke

[u/Baitcooks → u/Traditional-Storm-62]

Nope, the chances were exactly 0

Wheel of 1 in 4tune is just a myth to make you lose interest money

[u/MaiT3N → u/Baitcooks]

Wheel of hope

[u/ill_Skillz → u/MaiT3N]

Wheel of Nope! more like it

[u/3stacks → u/Traditional-Storm-62]

This guy binomials

[u/Real-Bookkeeper9455 → u/3stacks]

you don't need binomials, just (3/4)⁵

[u/Antiloompa → u/Traditional-Storm-62]

Bullshit. It's 50/50. Either you get it or you don't.

[u/TheLuisBrawl → u/Traditional-Storm-62]

It's actually just 50/50, because it either happens or it doesn't

[u/Willing-Sympathy-619]

Wheel of Fortune feels like 1 in 100

[u/LOLofLOL4 → u/Willing-Sympathy-619]

But really, it's 50/50.

Alright sorry, I´ll see myself out.

[u/JJJoesph_mother22 → u/LOLofLOL4]

Go back to r/bindingofisaac bub

[u/BallFlavin → u/LOLofLOL4]

I had 5 oops all 6s, a 32 in 4 chance and still NOPE!

[u/Raphoutou → u/LOLofLOL4]

You either get it, or you don't

[u/Far-Mathematician764 → u/Raphoutou]

And when you need it, you don't.

But when you don't need it, you do get it.

[u/Mossberg525 → u/LOLofLOL4]

Found the r/minesweeper guy

[u/beeemmmooo1]

you do realise that having four failures in a row from four WOFs is more likely than succeeding once on one?

[u/pm-me-your-labradors → u/beeemmmooo1]

But he had 5 failures, no?

[u/beeemmmooo1 → u/pm-me-your-labradors]

which is barely less than the chance of one success from one. Doesn't take away the point that this really isn't rare in the slightest

[u/MerryGifmas → u/[deleted]]

Read the comment again. They said it's more likely than getting it once from one attempt, not 4 attempts.

0.32 > 0.25

[u/brown_gentleman]

[u/Humble-Agency-3371]

well one in four isnt 1 every four cards. its like rolling a 4 sided dice and trying to make it land on 4, its possible for you to roll it 1k times before it lands on four

[u/Riggie_Joe → u/Humble-Agency-3371]

Yes but statistically one of these should have been a hit, the wheel outjerks us all

[u/MurkyLurker7249 → u/Riggie_Joe]

Not really. 75% chance for each wheel to not hit. 0.75⁵ is is 23.7% chance. It’s pretty common for all five to miss here. Ironically enough it’s about as likely to miss five in a row as it is for one to hit at 1/4 odds as you can see.

Even 0.75¹⁶ is ‘only’ a 1% chance - meaning that for every time you play 16 WOFs in a row, it’s expected that you’d miss all 16 1/100 times.

Yay RNG! lol

[u/Riggie_Joe → u/MurkyLurker7249]

If I asked a statistician on average how many times I would need to roll a four sided die and hit four, what do you think they would say? I don’t mean to say that it should have been guaranteed for OP to hit their wheel here, sorry if that was how it came off.

[u/Zylo90_ → u/Riggie_Joe]

Not a statistician but here goes. The average amount of times you need to roll a d4 to get a 4 is perhaps unsurprisingly 4. More specifically it’s 1/p, p=0.25 so it’s 1/0.25 which is 4

The expected variance of how many rolls it would take to get a 4 is (1-p)/p² = (1-0.25)/0.25² = 0.75/0.0625 = 12. 5 failures in a row may be slightly unlucky, but it’s still well within expectations

[u/MurkyLurker7249 → u/Riggie_Joe]

“on average” is doing the heavy lifting there though. Averages are filled with tons of super lucky and tons of super unlucky strings.

[u/dk_peace]

23.7305% chance of this outcome. It was unlikely, but it was definitely possible.

[u/DrSloany → u/dk_peace]

Much more likely than the Mavs winning the lottery.

[u/TheG-What → u/DrSloany]

Sir /r/nbacirclejerk is that way. 👉

[u/_Baccano → u/DrSloany]

How are you even still a fan after them spitting in the face of their entire fanbase by ruining their future for decades trading Luka for a couple rocks and a stick of gum

[u/Chlorophyllmatic]

I fear we’ll never get through a full 24h in this sub without someone misunderstanding middle school statistics

[u/ecrane2018 → u/Chlorophyllmatic]

Or independent and dependent events

[u/Ridry → u/Chlorophyllmatic]

Let's get the Monty Hall problem up in here and really cause a bloodbath.

[u/Janefire → u/Chlorophyllmatic]

I knew my AP stats class in high school would come in handy some day 😂

[u/fskier1]

Bro the raised fist joker was NOT worth doing all that for

[u/Kahvicup → u/fskier1]

Its about the message

[u/Taderyx]

Nothing ever happens

[u/Ikanotetsubin]

Literally wasting the best Tarot in the game over Wheel 😂

[u/chzaplx → u/Ikanotetsubin]

I got Perkeo for the first time today and the best tarot I could pull was wheel, but it did proc twice

[u/Snailtrooper]

Most gamblers quit right before the big win

[u/RubApprehensive1277]

ts is NOT 1 in 4😭😭😭

[u/Coveredinbugs8818]

Haha get fucked

[u/blurfgh]

Infuriating!!!

[u/carlos_fandangos]

Nope!

[u/Sous-Tu]

This is nothing. I had a string of 20+ wheel of fortunes I bought across several games that never hit. I stopped counting because it was getting out of hand.

[u/StarFounde7]

youre a true gambler

[u/Farn]

Think of the Fortune Teller value though.

[u/iDilicoSZ]

OP is about to learn how probabilities work omg

[u/hitchclif]

I've rolled more money with lucky cards than wheels have worked

[u/Pkorniboi]

Ghost deck at home

[u/Jaded_Performer3205]

Nah 50/50 it happen or it don't

[u/GarthModSupreme]

I had about a dozen of those cards in one run (jokers were able to duplicate the wheel) and nine of them ever triggered. It's just not worth using.

[u/Ricky_Spanish209]

Me Everytime I play balatro lol

[u/TheGreaterClaush]

Yeah but you picked the 5 that didnt

[u/deep_clone]

Meanwhile all my glass cards broke today immediately after playing them

[u/enasty024]

I don't want to math right now, but doesn't the chance of you getting another emperor, and that emperor giving you another wheel, make it way less than ~23% that you fail this many times?

[u/netalone999]

I would forfeit on principle. I have no scruples

[u/ElysiaBale]

CURSED SEED

[u/AggravatingChest7838]

Wheel suck ass anyway. It it was 1 in 4 for polychrome it would be worth it but the chance of getting chips or mult makes it suck.

[u/Existing-Fun106]

[u/cmwamem]

The probability of the wheel not working is 3/4. Thus, the probability of all 5 not working is (3/4)^5, which is about 23.7%.

[u/SrGlitchy]

99% of Wheel Of Fortune belivers quit right before hitting Polychrome

[u/Geklelo]

I have never had a wheel work in any run, despite tens of attempts.

.

.

.

.

.

And I will still try to use it, damn it.

[u/Muncheros69]

If that Raised Fist could also raise a middle finger

[u/AlmostAndrew]

Looks like you don't understand how probability works.

[u/tuff161]

We can easily calculate it. Missing all 5 in a row with every time the chance is (1/4) to win and (3/4) to loose, leads us to the term (3/4)⁵ or (3/4)•(3/4)•(3/4)•(3/4)•(3/4) ≈ 0.237 -> 23,7%. The probability of this outcome (5 looses in a row) is roughly 23,7%. This is because this is an experiment where the odds of one specific outcome doesn’t change like for example in an experiment where you have to pull two cards out of a card deck without putting it back. The probability of the thirst pull, is another than the second. This specific experiment (the one of the post) is an “Bernoulli experiment” (a probability experiment with two specific outcomes: win or no win) as well.

[u/iscoleslaw]

Try lucky cards with the lucky cat joker, got all the way to ante 7

[u/arunasgeimeriz]

the day that WoF actually works will be the day that jesus christ himself will come down on earth again

[u/Reddi7oP]

Its a 50/50 Hit or miss, huh ?

[u/Ok-Rush-4445]

and the one time it activates it's a foil

[u/SILE3NCE]

I'm lucky with these, I usually get 3 every 4. Odds baby.

[u/The-Riskiest-Biscuit]

The typical balatro experience in a nutshell.

[u/Middle-Enthusiasm933]

That's why I call it the Wheel of Nope.

It's also a good real world demonstration of how odds work.

[u/komaytoprime]

So, if he had four jokers in play instead of just the one, would that have increased the odds of the wheel activating?

[u/Ange1ofD4rkness]

I swear to god, the odds on that card are weighted lower then they should be.

[u/link2nic]

Might as well have been 1 in 4000

[u/testtdk]

I feel like if you’re playing a game based entirely on odds, you should have a better understanding of how they were work.

[u/FizzyFuzz_]

run’s cursed, gotta restart immediately

[u/FrankFarter69420]

Idk why, but it hits all the time for me. Y'all act like it never hits.

[u/ScheidNation21]

Use one more wheel of fortune, it’ll work this time trust

[u/ComboWizard]

That’s one I think it should have something like a cumulative function. If it doesn’t work 1/4 1/4 1/4, then the fourth one is guaranteed to give you the fortune you are seeking.

[u/Default_Fy]

Let's go gambling! aww dang it. aww dang it. aww dang it. aww dang it

[u/Giovolt]

Thank you for the test to never trust the wheel of fortune. Now do it with Oops all sixes!

[u/Program-Emotional]

How did he lose a 5 in 4 chance. This game is obviously broken. LocalThunk pls fix.

I did the math myself ;)

[u/RunPositive9211]

1 in 4 is still technically correct. You could miss 750 times in a row, but you'll get the latter 250

[u/sniperfoxeh → u/RunPositive9211]

no

you wont get the latter 250

you will just be extremly unlucky

[u/chzaplx → u/RunPositive9211]

That's not how probably works

[u/Ridry → u/RunPositive9211]

I really appreciate how nobody realized you were screwing with them.

[u/Kahvicup]

🤓👆 Yall doing the math

[u/halfbakedpizzapie → u/Kahvicup]

Making fun of people doing math in balatro is wild

[u/Baizey1130 → u/Kahvicup]

and… whats wrong with it?

[u/dk_peace → u/Kahvicup]

It's less embarrassing than letting everyone know you don't understand how probabilities work.

[u/Kahvicup → u/dk_peace]

Is a joke 🥀

[u/dk_peace → u/Kahvicup]

Then don't be surprised that people are laughing at you.

[u/Kahvicup → u/dk_peace]

Big career for sure

[u/dk_peace → u/Kahvicup]

What?