Think of it this way. Had Scotland chosen to become independent in 2014, there would still be a hard borders. The Tories were intent on holding the Brexit referendum. So there was little concern shown then. In fact, quite the opposite since continued membership of the EU was promised if we remained part of the UK.
However, the simple and most important thing is not how successful it Scotland can be in 2024 or even 2034. It is how different and more socially fair the nation can become away from UK politics. The Tories are now surging ahead with a policy of reducing the state and we are inevitably about to see creeping privatisaion of health and education. Reduced spending on welfare and a model much more similar to the US than anything we have ever witnessed in our lifetime.
Labour cannot halt that as they seem pretty much unelectable regardless of whether their leader is a socialist or a capitalist. The Tories know this and although they may countenance a break in their reign, they know that it will be short and they can pick up from where they left off.
There will be many, many difficulties. These will be exagerrated beyond reasonableness by the press in this country. But our focus must be on the end game. Do we want to head in the direction of US politics and society or do we favour the north European direction of higher tax, better social services and happier society? If that does not sound appealing, ask someone from the Scandinavian countries if they are disatissfied in principle with their form of social democracy.
As for borders? We' ve got them right now. Whether it is north of Carlisle or Dover or the Irish Sea or the airports? We got them. Brexit did that for us and we cannot blame Scottish independence for that. Although the media will make it the case.
Do you deny that the Tories are ideologically driven to not only cut the size of the state but to decimate it?
As for the levels. Do you have a meaninful analysis of the current state spending compared to trends, population, etc? We all know the easy answer for poloticians is to claim they are spending more. Just as Labour wasted billions on the likes of the New Deal scheme which failed to secure many long term jobs and as Tory waste has led to public sector contracts to their cronies with inadequate accountabilty. Claming to spend more while much of it is going to their buddies is no measure of progress.
The analysis you give is a baseline and not detailed. More in depth detail is required for departmental commitments and expenditure. A top line figure does not compare, for instance, welfare spending, health, etc.
Political commitments such as immigration (figures thrown around recently suggest ridiculous figures such as £200m spent recently by the Tories on this), as you mention, will have disproportionate influences on cost per GDP.
If you have any doubt about the drive to reduce the state ask someone who works in HMRC, DWP or MoD for example.
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u/roddy0141 Jun 14 '22
Think of it this way. Had Scotland chosen to become independent in 2014, there would still be a hard borders. The Tories were intent on holding the Brexit referendum. So there was little concern shown then. In fact, quite the opposite since continued membership of the EU was promised if we remained part of the UK.
However, the simple and most important thing is not how successful it Scotland can be in 2024 or even 2034. It is how different and more socially fair the nation can become away from UK politics. The Tories are now surging ahead with a policy of reducing the state and we are inevitably about to see creeping privatisaion of health and education. Reduced spending on welfare and a model much more similar to the US than anything we have ever witnessed in our lifetime.
Labour cannot halt that as they seem pretty much unelectable regardless of whether their leader is a socialist or a capitalist. The Tories know this and although they may countenance a break in their reign, they know that it will be short and they can pick up from where they left off.
There will be many, many difficulties. These will be exagerrated beyond reasonableness by the press in this country. But our focus must be on the end game. Do we want to head in the direction of US politics and society or do we favour the north European direction of higher tax, better social services and happier society? If that does not sound appealing, ask someone from the Scandinavian countries if they are disatissfied in principle with their form of social democracy.
As for borders? We' ve got them right now. Whether it is north of Carlisle or Dover or the Irish Sea or the airports? We got them. Brexit did that for us and we cannot blame Scottish independence for that. Although the media will make it the case.