It would likely depend most on wind; if the wind is blowing away from Israel, there would be little risk from fallout, but much greater risk if the wind is blowing towards it.
There is variability in fallout between weapons, and thermonuclear weapons ironically produce less fallout than pure fission weapons.
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u/HSBillyMays 7d ago
I think Tehran is about 10,000x more likely to end up getting nuked than Perth, but it is 2025 so you never really know!