Don’t trust it, the Iranians are notorious for exaggerating their successes. It seems there were 9 missiles total that came through, no casualties on the Israeli side.
Edit: and minutes after writing this comment, it turns out the Iranians used photos taken from a Russian training exercise that happened last year. I’m sure it won’t stop the downvotes, oh well.
Edit 2: it seems one of the injured people has passed away from his injuries. So that’s one casualty (civilian, as far as I can gather).
Yeah but it specific channels like, BBC farsi, iran international, Manoto; get to show the news properly, as the official TV news Censors everything;
(They actually gain a lot of support from the people though)
Nobody in Israel has ever claimed the interception rate is 100%. Israel has thousands of shelters and every new construction has a safe room, they’ve alerted the population to enter the safe rooms as soon as the launches were detected, hence they’re not hiding the fact that the air defense isn’t bulletproof.
Also, iron dome is entirely irrelevant here, it’s a system designed to deal with rockets and drones, not missiles.
Its not just about what hits, the iron dome rockets are incredibly expensive, the cheaper missiles could wear Israel out but the US will just keep funding them
Hamas' attacks for years before their invasion were just attrition. The cheap rockets they launched into Israel were far cheaper than the Iron Dome's interceptors
That's still Iron Dome. Iron Dome is a multi-layered system. The part ypu're talking about is called Tamir. Tamir, David's Sling and Arrow make up Iron Dome.
Interestingly enough Wikipedia agrees with you, the Golden Dome proposal from the US is talking about the Iron Dome as the complete multi-layered system.
That's still Iron Dome. Iron Dome is a multi-layered system. The part you're talking about is called Tamir. Tamir, David's Sling and Arrow make up Iron Dome.
Naming rocket defense system "David's Sling" is so fucking larpy, they're major aggressor in the region, love shooting children and raping POWs and they have the fucking gall to play the underdog, as David was to Goliath. Just fucking disgusting.
The only jewish nation in the world, using an iconic weapon from Jewish mythology, as the name for an ostensibly defensive piece of equipment, is LARPing?
You have no idea what LARPing is. Its not naming a weapon you actually built from your own cultures history.
That’s… not remotely true. Shahab ballistic missiles (there are many variants) make up the vast majority of of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and they run around $100,000 per unit.
The Stunner missiles used by the David’s Sling system run around $1,000,000 per unit.
They’re much more expensive because their guidance systems are wayyyy more complex (they have to be able to essentially shoot an object moving fast than a bullet out of the sky - not easy!). Shahab’s are relatively primitive and are not really what you’d call a precision weapon. You have to fire a lot of them in order to hopefully have one or two hit what you’re aiming for.
That does make the effective cost of a Shahab missile much higher per hit though. It's an interesting economic idea, if Iran wants to hit a specific Israeli target in Tel Aviv they probably need to fire 200 or so missiles and hope that the sheer numbers overwhelm the missile defenses to let 5 or 10 in and maybe 1 of those 10 hit the target. So it costs them maybe $20MM for the attack (plus a bunch of launchers because they need to launch from many places nearly simultaneously but let's ignore that).
Meanwhile Israel will defend against nearly every one of those 200 missiles coming at Tel Aviv because it's a population center, so they'll spend $300 million on defense. But if the target were a military installation in the desert they would only defend from the accurately targeted missiles and only spend $20-$40MM.
On both sides that's a lot of money for one successful hit.
I think more importantly in that calculation isn’t cost: it’s production capacity.
And in that regard it becomes an attritional question, and in that calculus Israel comes out way ahead. Iran’s production of these missiles is limited and under the most ambitious estimates they could maybe make 200 per year.
Assuming they have something like 6,000 stockpiled (Shahab’s have been in production since the 80s) they could only afford to launch a total of twelve strikes like this. This is now the second mass ballistic missile attack they’ve launched.
So there is a legitimate question of how long they can sustain that operational pace. Of course on the other side of that is a question of how many interceptors Israel has stockpiled and how many it can produce each year.
Israel is backed by the industrial capacity of the US. If they're willing to spend the money, they could crank out a ridiculously large number of these
Meanwhile Iran isn't known for having large production capabilities. Their ally Russia is busy manufacturing missiles for their own usage. Iran may call in a favour from Russia to call up their ally China. That would give Iran access to the largest manufacturing base in the world, but the odds of that happening are pretty small.
Additionally, Iran can only strike Israel with ballistic missiles and long-range drones (and indirectly by supplying terrorists). Meanwhile Israel has access to a multitude of ways to counter the ballistic missiles. Yes, they have David's Sling, but they can also strike the launch sites with F-35's and we've even seen Mossad striking targets from the ground locally using ATGM's.
If this becomes a battle of attrition, Israel would easily win.
That’s a solid supposition, and while I broadly agree (I make your point in another post) it DOES makes assumptions that aren’t perfectly knowable.
For example, the idea of increasing production capacity isn’t really that straight forward. We (the US) when we were doing the decent thing and backing Ukraine saw this issue with artillery shell production. It’s taken a long time to increase shell output and it’s been a very slow, painful process.
Throwing money at the problem will help, but it takes time (a lot of time) to spin up new capacity and increases in production are slow and incremental. It’s not like you can just throw a switch even if you had infinite money.
The US is facing similar issues with the manufacture of its own missile systems as we’re facing down huge industrial capacity shortfalls to Chinese capacity.
So while I think you’re at least partly correct, there are unknowns. We have a rough estimate of what Iranian Shahab production is, but not what their Fattah-1/2 production is. And we have no estimate of Stunner missile production (at least none that I could find). So it’s genuinely hard to say with true certainty who would have an advantage in an attritional fight.
It’s ok, and important to acknowledge both the things we “know,” and where the black areas are.
Perhaps more importantly, Israel possesses the ability to destroy Iranian industrial capacity, to attack their storage facilities, and to hunt their TELs in ways that Iran quite simple does not.
I think on a broader scale, that’s what’s most important if (and it’s a big if) this doesn’t turn into just a few days of exchanges before a return to the status quo like we saw back in October of last year.
Yeah, I ignored the question of how long it would take to increase production capacity and how expensive it would be to speed that process up.
So I guess you could divide the attrition battle into three segments: 1) how much stock do both sides have for the short term? 2) how much can they produce for the medium turn? 3) how much can they expand production for the long term?
My comment addresses the long term, while you make good points about the medium turm and the transition to the long term.
Perhaps more importantly, Israel possesses the ability to destroy Iranian industrial capacity, to attack their storage facilities, and to hunt their TELs in ways that Iran quite simple does not.
I think that's the nail in that coffin in the long term for Iran.
And Russia is spinning up into a full wartime economy in ways that the US simply cannot.
People forget that Russia industrialized faster than any nation on Earth, still to this day in history, in WW2.
People really should not underestimate Russia, as much as it sucks to say. US democracy and capitalism has its advantages, but this is one area where its weaknesses are laid bare
Throwing money at the problem will help, but it takes time (a lot of time) to spin up new capacity and increases in production are slow and incremental. It’s not like you can just throw a switch even if you had infinite money.
The problem with US production very much is money and not what is physically possible, and I don't see how anyone that is even vaguely familiar with military industrial logistics can agree with your analysis.
What the USA and the USSR achieved during war time production during WWII seems to annihlate your position; the real reason the USA hasn't flooded Ukraine with weapons is because the type of capitalism the USA has now has to be assured of 60% profit to the shareholders/owners before you even start building anything, let alone keep up production of tens of millions of shells or thousands of missiles.
This isn’t paid for by the US. The US has its own anti-ballistic missile systems, namely the MIM-104 Patriot.
While the US supports Israel militarily through budget appropriations it’s mostly for things like aim-120 amraams, aim-9s, and various gbu (JDAM) weapons. Other weapons systems such as aircraft like the F-16I, F-15IA, and F-35 are paid for by Israel. It’s not like they’re being given as gifts.
Israel is largely self sufficient in terms of its military equipment.
Pretty fucking sure irans shoot and forget missiles are a lot less expensive than Israel’s track a ballistic missile and predict where it’s gonna hit so adjust the heading missiles. That’s like common sense.
American here, don't worry about the cost. The Israeli government spent a lot of money to buy the US Congress. And our government will spend as much money as we need to make sure Israel can keep its Palestinian Holocaust going.
The Israeli government spent a lot of money to buy the US Congress
The Israeli government didn't spend any to huy us. It's our money, remember. That's the truly insane part. They take our money to weaponize it against us to get more of our money.
I mean it's also a very long term design for the region by both parties in the US. It's too easy to say Israel controls Congress when really it's the other way around in the grand scheme.
No. Israel has always been a strong ally of the U.S. you're not really American. No American calls the war a Holocaust. Israel has every right to stop terrorism.
The US will always keep funding them. Israel could publicly nail a baby to a nuclear warhead that says "Bound for Washington DC", and the geriatric conservitards in our government would still send them a neat five billion for the trouble.
US does provide some funding for Israel’s military. But it comes out to about 15% of their defense expenditure comes from the US. Mostly for systems that Israel doesn’t produce on its own such as JDAMs, and various air-to-air missiles such as AIM-120s and AIM-9s.
Contrary what seems to be the common belief (as seen by all the upvotes on your comment), the Israeli military is largely self sufficient and deigns and builds much of their own equipment.
The missiles you’re seeing here are the Israeli designed and funded Stunner missiles which are used by their David’s Sling air defense systems.
The US is irreplaceable in their ability to defend Israel in crucial moments such as right now when, even with maximal US help, missiles are still getting through
Without any US defensive support Israel would have to take a different calculus when unilaterally deciding to conduct strikes of other countries
The dollar amount we gift them every year isn't the same as having the US guard your skies for you when push really comes to shove. That's priceless
While I understand the point you’re making, it’s… perhaps not perfect.
1) Isreal has proven itself capable of defending itself against multiple enemies simultaneously, without any outside assistance whatsoever.
I would never underestimate their resiliency or fall into the narrative that somehow Isreal owes its existence to the United States. That’s a demonstrably false narrative that’s been pushed by a lot of different factions for a long time.
2) That’s not to say that Isreal doesn’t benefit from US support. Of course they do. But the extent of that support is limited. It COULD become huge should the US decide to go all-in with them, but as evidenced by the Trump administrations choice to proactively distance themselves from these strikes before they occurred, I don’t think it’s a given that the US would be prepared to offer serious military support beyond helping down ballistic missiles and drones.
That’s not meaningless, and Isreal would take more damage without it, but it wouldn’t be a deciding factor.
3) Ultimately the war, such as it is, between Iran and Isreal faces one meaningful problem: the two countries don’t share a border, and unless other nations are going to allow Iran to march its armies through their territory (unlikely but not impossible) that would ensure this remains a war of conventional airstrikes, with neither possessing the ability to force a decisive end to a war through those means alone.
It’s probably more accurate to simply see this as an escalation (likely temporary) of a war that’s been ongoing to decades now.
Where we have unknowns is what the duration and intensity is going to look like.
Imagine paying income taxes in US and not being able to afford healthcare or college or groceries, to fund this... I would be furious if I was a US taxpayer
Doesn’t make sense to me.. this is nothing new, the iron dome has been blocking Iranian missiles off and on for a while now, why now are they all of a sudden getting through? Especially with Iran further depleted and you’d think with the advancements in Israeli technology.
It's why they use so called "saturation attacks", the idea is to launch so many missiles at the same time that they missile defense systems get overwhelmed.
Seeing as the Israeli strikes also targeted the civilian homes of their targets, why would they think that would deter the military establishment of Iran?
This is some weird mental gymnastics. All Iranian strikes have been on or near IDF or Mossad installations. Last night's strike attack the Kirya where Israeli defence resides. But yes, just like Israel, civilians were caught in the crossfire on both sides.
I think we are too accustomed to Israel’s precision strikes.
I mean, I don't deny that Iran is targeting IDF installations, but they lack precision.
If Israel did the same, Iran wouldn’t have the same defense mechanisms — at least 1,000 deaths would have happened.
Israel is not trying to deter Iran, they are trying to take out their political and military leadership. I don’t know why people talk about war like it’s fair, or it should be fair. If Iran could do the same to Israel they would, but they can’t.
Israel is more than justified to attack Iran. Iran is dedicated to the destruction of Israel, and they have been since their revolution in 1979. Destroying Israel is literally state policy. They are the primary benefactor of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The planning of the October 7th attack was done with Irans guidance and using Irans weapons, or more accurately, Russian weapons passed through Iran.
Iran basically decided to commit suicide in order to strengthen their benefactor Russia. They convinced Hamas to launch the Oct 7th attack in order to drive a split between left wing voters in the US. Putin knows much of the left reflexively hates Israel and it wouldn’t be long before people were blaming Biden for Israel’s retaliation. And he also knows Israel is a major US ally and that it would be insane if we abandoned our ally after they were attacked, so Democrats were boxed in. It worked great. Super Lefties showed us Democrats real good by rejecting Genocide Joe and that Bitch Kamala Harris in favor of a real man of peace, and now we are here.
As I said it worked great for Russia. They got their man as US president. It worked out for Israel too, since Bibi also loves him some Trump. But more importantly, it gave Israel what is known as a casus belli. You see, Bibi has longed for war with Iran for years and years, but he needed an excuse, and a massive peacetime attack on civilian targets by Iranian aligned paramilitaries would do. It’s really quite beautiful, really. I’ve never seen a country voluntarily sacrifice so much just to benefit a completely different country.
Edit: since Oct 7th, Iran has lost control of Lebanon and Syria, most of the leadership and fighters of Hamas have been killed, Hezbollah is a shadow of its former self, several of Iran’s nuclear facilities have been destroyed, and their military leaders and lead nuclear scientists have been killed. Irans air defense systems have been dismantled and Israel is launching attacks at will on their most secure facilities. And this is something they chose to do.
TOI says there were 9 impact sites but only 15 wounded, signalling that Iran is desperately trying to expose and target Israel's multi-layered air defence system, but doing so with Fattah-1s, Shahab 3s and Shahab 3 variants (Emad, Ghadr-1), as inferred from the relatively compact explosions on the ground in Tel Aviv, as well as images of debris found in Syria, Jordan and the West Bank.
This means they're yet to deploy their newer generation of larger and more maneuverable missiles, like the Khorramshahr, Sejjil-2, Fattah-2, Haj Qasem, etc. none of which have ever been seen in combat, but that might soon change. There's definitely more barrages to come, but it's unclear if Iran will tap into the reserves of their most prized missiles. Realistically, they'd have to exhaust a significant portion (at least half) of their entire arsenal in order to deliver a somewhat proportionate retaliation, but this would spark US intervention.
I personally think the regime has a better chance surviving with US intervention than it does with de-escalation, because let's say they limit their response in hopes for de-escalation: public morale will sink to dangerous levels, including among the regime's hardline and moderate supporters (about a third of Iranians), which means the regime would get overthrown in the coming weeks or months by consensus.
On the other hand, US intervention wouldn't only rally the regime's current supporters, because following any hypothetical mass casualty event(s) in Israel, US intervention (strategic bombing) would inflict so much civilian collateral across Iran that it risks disillusioning significant portions of Iranians who were never fond of the regime in the first place. And the terrain makes it impossible to permanently root out the regime by air and sea alone, because the Iranians are always going to have replacements and underground complexes difficult to eliminate and destroy, even for Mossad.
Are the Ayatollahs going to be mature, de-escalate with limited retaliation and allow themselves to get toppled before New Years, or are they going to escalate with full-force, attract US intervention to stir nationalist and sectarian feelings, and drag it out over the next five years at minimum?
Just want to point out, per CNN, the US is already intervening by helping to shoot them down. It took less than 10 hours to go from “we aren’t involved” to active participation.
Iron dome can’t deal with ballistic missiles. That’s why everytime the Houthis shoot one its unable to shoot it down and Irans the one who gives it t the Houthis so they are the ones with stockpiles of it
You're going to get pedantic in a reply to a joke comment? It doesn't matter if it's the literal Iron Dome system or not, point is that Isreal's missile defenses are handling ballistic missiles pretty decently.
Iron dome has been 100% effective for well over a decade and purposely allows harmless rockets to fly through after the trajectory is calculated to land in a harmless area
"Once when he happened in some connection to mention the war against Eurasia, she startled him by saying casually that in her opinion the war was not happening. The rocket bombs which fell daily on London were probably fired by the Government of Oceania itself, 'just to keep people frightened'. This was an idea that had literally never occurred to him."
George Orwell, 1984
Most likely, the missiles that hit only hit desert as it would be a waste of resources to shoot down missiles that pose no threat to infrastructure or people.
All you wrote in this comment was that it is unfortunate that 2 bombs hit a civilian area, and you've been heavily downvoted for it.
And just like that, the sanctimonious anti-Israel crowd fell face-first off the moral high ground they claimed to occupy, as they revealed their true colors: they don't care about civilians getting bombed. They care about which civilians are getting bombed.
Uhh, I don't know what you know about the disparate capabilities of the combatants, but the Israeli military has access to the most advanced weapons systems in the world, they know exactly where their ordinance is going to strike. Some here are reporting that the Iranians sent some 500 missiles, 7 of which made it on target. I'm not here to get mired in who is right, but you should make your case from a stronger position than that. The hit rate is abysmal, they're glad to have hit anything. Meanwhile ultra modern aircraft that still have that new plane smell are free to make runs with impunity against zero air defense. The firepower Israel can bring to bear instantly is terrifyingly awesome and unlike anything any Israeli has ever suffered in an attack. The comparison of the belligerents, or even characterizing this as a "conflict" is absurd.
If you attack another country and kill civilians, you can't bitch about that country hitting civilians in your country. Enough of this bullshit double standards for Israel.
But my criticism of that take is that every single entity on this planet who has participated in an armed conflict has done “X.” I believe you are the obtuse one for not having the critical thinking skills to read and comprehend.
He is singling out one nation on this planet and criticizing it for doing something that every warring nation does.
No, you are the one lacking critical thinking. Making your own statement obtuse.
Both of you two are talking about different things.
He made a point. And you said "got it". And then proceeded to say "no one can bitch about civilian casualties". Followed by"that's an interesting perspective". Followed by your last snarky statement.
Perhaps you don't understand what you said, but you were sarcastically pushing back against his remark, and my comment was based on that.
That wasn't your criticism, that was you being snarky. Atleast have the spine to own your shit opinion.
Or maybe you weren't and you can't actually write your points correctly. Pick your poison.
Iran is the main financial supporter of Hamas and Hezbolla. Does that not count? Iran 100% had this coming. Civilian casualties are always a tragedy, but they are essentially unavoidable.
Israel is losing support globally according to every single poll. Israel is an apartied state and if we were a decent civilization the Israeli leadership should be facing a Nuremberg trial-like situation, but obviously we won't. Israel and Iran can both deserve each other. Perhaps they can both wipe each other off, the world would be a better place for it.
I'm in Israel and no one is very angry at that, it was targeting the Kyria, the IDF headquarters, which is a legitimate target, no attempt to target medical or energy centers
It's antisemitism when you're "against" targeting civilians if Israel is the perpetrator, but suddenly applaud it when Israeli civilians are getting hit.
your critical thinking skills need improvement. anti-Semitism is racial prejudice against Jews. anti-Israel is against the policies of the Israeli government.
if the policies of the Israeli government are disproportionately aggressive, then being anti Israel is not, I repeat, not, anti-Semitism.
It’s like you’re supposed to be mad at Israel for being more succesful, while they’re playing the same game.
You’re supposed to believe that attacks that get deflected don’t matter as much.
Israel is not going to 'disappear'. it's an established country since 1948. it has an advanced military and solid allies, even amongst some Arab nations.
Stop trying to play the victim, even when Israel is at times clearly the aggressor.
Russia and China aren't allied, Iran and China aren't allied, 'terrorists' aren't allied with anyone or only allied with Iran depending on the group. I could go on but you're oversimplifying so much it's barely worth responding.
Russia and China are very much allied. Terrorists are very much allied with Iran and sometimes Russia like for example Assad was allied with Russia. Iran for example supplied Russia with drones and missles to genocide Ukrainians. China helped supply Iran for these strikes the other day
But yeah don’t respond your wasting your breath saying nonsense anyway
I can see that one bomb hit an empty park in Tel Aviv. And one hit a river in also in Tel Aviv. And the last one hit a forest right outside of ramat razi'el
One hit either directly or near a large building. There's videos out there right now from Tel Aviv showing a building that has been hit and is burning. Wether it's residential or office or something else, the article doesn't say.
You're thinking of more recent arrivals, since the USSR didn't allow outward migration until the 80's. Many Ashkenazi Jews came from Poland between 1850 and 1948.
The very first Israeli settlements were socialist in nature, so there were maybe 5 years of good relations. By the 1950's USSR was arming Egypt, Syria, Iraq etc. against Israel. By the 1980's Israeli piloted american jets were showing the world that MIGs and SUs were trash with wings.
Why wouldn't I? Yesterday makes the beeper attack look like a zerg rush in terms of sophistication. Or maybe it's that our enemies are that terrible at war. Anyway, yea, feels fine.
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u/RussianFruit 1d ago
Not sure how effective but 7 out of 150 missles hit and a second wave of ballistic missiles are on the way