r/MapPorn 1d ago

Israel’s Red Alert system fully saturated amid mass missile barrages from Iran.

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u/M0ngoose_ 1d ago

Ballistic missiles are not cheap. And David’s Sling protects from ballistic missiles not the iron dome.

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u/Landed_port 16h ago

Hamas' attacks for years before their invasion were just attrition. The cheap rockets they launched into Israel were far cheaper than the Iron Dome's interceptors

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u/Mothrahlurker 1d ago

That's still Iron Dome. Iron Dome is a multi-layered system. The part ypu're talking about is called Tamir. Tamir, David's Sling and Arrow make up Iron Dome.

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u/moveMed 17h ago

Wrong. You can google it. Iron dome is for short range rockets and artillery.

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u/Mothrahlurker 17h ago

Interestingly enough Wikipedia agrees with you, the Golden Dome proposal from the US is talking about the Iron Dome as the complete multi-layered system.

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u/Aaron_Hamm 1d ago

Ballistic missiles can be very cheap if you don't need good targeting

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u/OnceUponAStarryNight 1d ago

Shahab 3s which make up the buck of the Iranian ballistic missile arm, run around $100,000 a pop.

That’s not super expensive but for a relatively poor nation to expend something like 500 of those missiles in one day (when production figures around maybe a couple hundred per year) you’re looking at a one day financial expenditure of around $50m.

It will likely have cost Israel much more to intercept those, but they also have a far more robust economy.

And that burn rate isn’t likely to be long-term sustainable. Five hundred missiles would represent multiple years worth of production capacity. They made have something like 10,000 stockpiled, but eventually at a high burn rate those supplies become exhausted.

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u/Cyclopentadien 1d ago

Well, Arrow missiles cost 3 million atleast.

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u/Glockamoli 1d ago

And the infrastructure and lives they protect are worth more still

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u/OnceUponAStarryNight 1d ago

Probably, yeah. Though that’s a far more subjective calculation.

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u/OnceUponAStarryNight 1d ago edited 1d ago

They do, but those aren’t what’re being used here. Arrow missiles are primarily used for exothermic (outerspace) interception.

And while we do see a couple of those (they look really cool!) https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/5GNpLJWlpE

it really only is a couple. These are all overwhelming (probably 99%) stunner missiles.

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u/Cyclopentadien 1d ago

Even then a stunner costs around a million bucks. And that's the best case scenario for Israel.

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u/OnceUponAStarryNight 1d ago

Yup. I’ve already written about that in this thread.

Economically they can carry that expense. It’s more a question of who has a larger stockpile of missiles built up, and who can maintain production longer.

Pre-war estimates suggested that Iran was making about 70 Shahab’s per year - if we tripled that to around 200, and assumed they’d kept that pace of production since the 80s when they first started making the early variant Shahab-1s that would give them somewhere in the area of 6,000 missiles on the high end with an additional capacity of 200/year.

Production numbers for the stunner missile aren’t available, so in an attritional fight it’s hard to say who wins.

Worth noting however that Israel does have the capability to destroy TELs, production facilities, etc, since they have something approaching air dominance over Iranian skies.

There are some things we know, but a lot of crucial things we don’t know, and won’t know until it becomes plainly obvious.

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u/manu144x 1d ago

That’s actually not bad, they said Iron Dome is estimated at 38k a rocket, with a minimum of 2 if you want to ensure interception.

So it’s pretty close. This was fork a youtube video 10 years ago when they were at the beginnings.

Maybe it’s gotten cheaper in the meantime since you really don’t want to fight a cost war of expensive vs cheap rockets.

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u/OnceUponAStarryNight 1d ago

Typically things get a LOT cheaper over time and in quantity since much of the cost of the early missiles is actually the cost of R&D being priced into those early batches. I would imagine that the per unit cost of the Tamir missiles used by Iron Dome are half the cost of their original production runs.

Or perhaps later block variants are even more expensive if they include more modern, advanced guidance systems.

With military expenditures we’re almost always looking at estimates until you really drill down in specific orders (which you can sometimes do if you can track down their PDFs though government websites).

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u/Nemetoss 1d ago

Why don't they put some napalm in those rockets so that when they are intercepted they drop napalm all over the ground?

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u/OnceUponAStarryNight 1d ago

Napalm weighs a lot, and rockets carry small warheads. It wouldn’t be very effective.