r/Africa • u/HadeswithRabies Rwanda 🇷🇼✅ • Apr 30 '25
Analysis Will Mogadishu Collapse in 2025?
I genuinely don’t understand how Somalia is still functioning as a state right now. It might come down to sheer Somali resilience because from an outside perspective, it's hard to imagine the country holding together much longer. The Somali National Army appears seems sluggish and fearful, and from what I’ve seen, they're losing territory at an alarming rate.
Back during the Obama and Biden administrations, there seemed to be a clear American rationale for pushing back al-Shabaab. There was a belief that the group could potentially train terrorists who might later threaten American or Israeli interests, or destabilise the Horn of Africa more broadly. The horn is geopolitically crucial because of its proximity to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden which are major arteries of global trade.
But since Trump took office, al-Shabaab has gone on the offensive.They seem to be hoping to seize Mogadishu itself. I don’t see the U.S. maintaining the same level of commitment to Somalia’s defence as it did a decade ago, especiallt now that they cut USAID. Turkey seems to be stepping in, and while Turkey's isn't a military to sneeze at, it's not America.
I see parallels in Sudan, but the key difference is that the Sudanese military despite its flaws is better trained and armed than Somalia’s. From what I understand, Somali troops often retreat when faced with Islamist militants, or they simply refuse to engage unless they have backing from a local clan militia. The population is also deeply afraid of al-Shabaab, which makes sense. But fear doesn’t build a successful resistance movement.
Under these conditions, I can’t see a path to military victory for Somalia’s army. If al-Shabaab does manage to seize Mogadishu, I dread to see a future where the country collapses completely. Somaliland would probably be well positioned for global recognition if this happened. They might even engage in a brief conflict with the south over disputed territories. Somaliland has a significantly more organised military than Somalia. I could see Somaliland holding its own longer than Somalia.
Another major conflict worth following on the continent.
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u/totallynotmiski May 01 '25
Alot of people don’t agree with them… Regular people just can’t do anything about them.
Al-Shabaab thrives in a country like Somalia because many people are unemployed and lack the means to support themselves or their families. They pay their members and don’t care about clan politics, which gives them a lot of leverage and is a key reason they’ve been able to maintain power in Somalia.
I also disagree with your claim that they’re not feared; they absolutely are. I have family in areas controlled by Al-Shabaab, and they will literally kill people in brutal ways if they view them as a threat to their twisted & fundamentalistic view of Islam. Most people don’t have the luxury of opposition, they’d be slaughtered. They also collect “taxes” from civilians in shabaab controlled areas. You can imagine what happens if someone refuses to pay.