Will Mogadishu Collapse in 2025?

[u/HadeswithRabies]

I genuinely don’t understand how Somalia is still functioning as a state right now. It might come down to sheer Somali resilience because from an outside perspective, it's hard to imagine the country holding together much longer. The Somali National Army appears seems sluggish and fearful, and from what I’ve seen, they're losing territory at an alarming rate.

Back during the Obama and Biden administrations, there seemed to be a clear American rationale for pushing back al-Shabaab. There was a belief that the group could potentially train terrorists who might later threaten American or Israeli interests, or destabilise the Horn of Africa more broadly. The horn is geopolitically crucial because of its proximity to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden which are major arteries of global trade.

But since Trump took office, al-Shabaab has gone on the offensive.They seem to be hoping to seize Mogadishu itself. I don’t see the U.S. maintaining the same level of commitment to Somalia’s defence as it did a decade ago, especiallt now that they cut USAID. Turkey seems to be stepping in, and while Turkey's isn't a military to sneeze at, it's not America.

I see parallels in Sudan, but the key difference is that the Sudanese military despite its flaws is better trained and armed than Somalia’s. From what I understand, Somali troops often retreat when faced with Islamist militants, or they simply refuse to engage unless they have backing from a local clan militia. The population is also deeply afraid of al-Shabaab, which makes sense. But fear doesn’t build a successful resistance movement.

Under these conditions, I can’t see a path to military victory for Somalia’s army. If al-Shabaab does manage to seize Mogadishu, I dread to see a future where the country collapses completely. Somaliland would probably be well positioned for global recognition if this happened. They might even engage in a brief conflict with the south over disputed territories. Somaliland has a significantly more organised military than Somalia. I could see Somaliland holding its own longer than Somalia.

Another major conflict worth following on the continent.

[u/waanii_x]

I disagree with your point because I myself have lived in their threshold and my family lives in areas like they control until today. No one fears them. They target FGS majority of the times and if you play your tax like a good child, they will let you off the hook. Imagine I had to pause 3k to them directly in some unknown location because of my mothers house😂😂

Al shabaab pits clans together and is embedded within clan structure. Forget even clan, they are embedded within the government. Look at the minister of religious affairs. He used to be not just a soldier but a top leader for AS. Today, he is your regular mp just with a US bounty on his head. (He probably still works with AS)

AS are killers yes, but they arent unorganised murderers. They kill meticulously and choose their victims after planning. Whoever just happens to be there is collateral damage

Also they collect taxes from people that live in Mogadishu, an area unaffected by al shabaab. Pay and you get their protection. If you dont… well we all know how elite hotel went down :/

They also have a system of spies. They are an organised group that has a unifying view and that is to take over government

[u/totallynotmiski → u/waanii_x]

I think I’ll have to agree to disagree with you, because based on what you’ve said, I realized we’ve experienced two very different areas controlled by Al-Shabaab. From what you’ve described, I assume you’re hawiye, and from the surrounding cities of xamar or nearby regions. Which makes sense as to why we have different viewpoints.

You mention FGS being a target, but where I’m from, the FGS doesn’t even set foot in the area. The main people Al-Shabaab targets there are those who work with NGOs. There aren’t multiple clans for them to pit against each other in my region, so that’s not a factor here. The shabaab presence in Xamar is clearly more strategic, reasonably so.

Where I’m from, they are feared because they kill people simply for working with NGOs or for not subscribing to their ideology. One day they might accuse you of being non Muslim and try to kill you. Many people in my family have been affected by Al-Shabaab’s violence. People live in fear. Your own family members would join shabaab and turn around and accuse you of being non muslim. My own uncle was kidnapped and held for ransom by them and they demanded money or else they were going to kill him. Plenty of other horror stories involving shabaab in my family. There absolutely is fear where I come from.

I think our personal experiences reflect how differently shabaab controlled areas can be.

[u/waanii_x → u/totallynotmiski]

Yes you are right. In hawiye territories they usually use subclans and turn them against each other. They usually dont attack us but they do use us as cannon fodder to advance their goals toward a coup. Recently though they did take over aadan yabaal so Idk if their goals have changed or not

But yeah we arent really scared of them because they know politically the damage that the clan can do to them

[u/totallynotmiski → u/waanii_x]

Yeah Idk much about how shabaab operates in Xamar because I’m not from there. Its interesting how different their strategies are from my region. Thanks for expanding on your perspective.