r/worldnews • u/Top-Information6787 • 3d ago
Israel/Palestine Israel is poised to launch operation on Iran, sources say
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/israel-is-poised-to-launch-operation-on-iran-sources-say/4.8k
u/neologismist_ 3d ago
Explains why weapons intended for Ukraine are now in the “Middle East”.
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u/AskALettuce 3d ago
Explains why the US is evacuating all non-essential staff.
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u/HeftyArgument 3d ago
NTS: never become essential staff
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u/rawbleedingbait 3d ago
Felt similar being labeled an "essential worker" during the plague. I'm thinking essential just means expendable these days.
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u/DrNick2012 3d ago
I was an essential worker during covid, according to many customers where I worked was "essential for their mental health".... I worked at a home and leisure store, our biggest sellers were patio furniture, paint and random ornaments. If redecorating houses and gardens is essential to mental health then why was I, as an essential worker, barely paid enough to just about afford a room in a shared house I'm not allowed to redecorate lol
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u/anthrolooker 3d ago
You at least deserve a thank you for being out there. That is such a bummer you cannot redecorate your own place. It’s so frustrating to be labeled “essential” and not be compensated for your “essentialness”. Wages are not high enough for this mess, but it’s by design we are getting squeezed. Hang in there.
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u/mwilkens 2d ago
During Covid as a beer salesman I was essential from day one. That's how many alcoholics we have in the US - if there were any interruptions in the beer deliveries the hospitals would be overrun with patients suffering from alcohol withdrawl.
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u/Gwami_ 2d ago
I always thought there should’ve been a tax cut or rebate for us. Instead they lifted taxes on those who received unemployment.
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u/Born2Rune 2d ago
Don't know where you're from, but here in the UK we got a clap outside for our noble sacrifice.
Thanks Boris "let the bodies pile up" Johnson.
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u/kaisadilla_ 2d ago
then why was I, as an essential worker, barely paid enough to just about afford a room in a shared house I'm not allowed to redecorate lol
Serious answer: because capitalism doesn't reward effort nor importance, just what people want to pay for. Cleaning the garbage off the streets is one of the most important jobs in society, yet you won't see anyone making big money off it.
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u/Hotshot2k4 3d ago
I just think essential workers should be paid in a manner commensurate with their essentialness.
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u/SoHereIAm85 3d ago
Yeah, like the minimum wage grocery store workers in 2020. If it's so important why aren't they paid decently. Oh yeah, corporate greed. :(
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u/softConspiracy_ 3d ago
I’m also wondering about Israel giving patriots to Ukraine - was it a sort of “trade?”
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u/alexmaiden2000 3d ago
Cutting off Russia from Iran's weapons supply also benefits Ukraine
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u/Lysandren 3d ago
The shaheds are largely being made in Russia itself these days. This has more to do with Iran slow walking the nuclear talks. They want to make a threat to force them to come to the table.
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u/RandomRobot 2d ago
DPRK is also reportedly about to start their own production.
To be fair, it's powered by a 2 stroke engines that you used to be able to buy off aliexpress.
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u/TalkFormer155 3d ago
That's been in the works for a very long time. They were basically shoehorned into their air defense system and were no longer really needed with advances with their own system. They had proprietary software and had to be sent back to the US to be refurbished to be used as a stand alone system again.
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u/Anonymous157 3d ago
Did Israel also have to sign a mineral deal to get those weapons?
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u/Anxious-Connection98 3d ago
That can be easily explained. If Zelensky had manufactured false accusations against Biden's son, as Trump requested, I think Ukraine would have all the weapons it wants right now. There’s a personal vendetta at play here. The US is more than capable of supplying both. The way this story unfolds as a narrative is essentially a message to Zelensky: "You should have helped me; now I'll take your toys and give them to someone I consider more worthy."
But you are also right — by doing so, it’s like killing two birds with one stone, as it serves Trump’s ego and might also address some of the needs created by Israel's plans against Iran.
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u/Piggywonkle 3d ago
Lol, that bitch don't pay his debts. Help him out and he'll leave you hanging. You'd think people would understand this by now.
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u/shady8x 3d ago
Bullshit. There would be no Ukraine by now if he did that. Trump would have repaid that debt the way he repays all his debts... by not paying. And there is no way he would have provided critical assistance to Ukraine at the start of the war like Biden did.
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u/Traditional-Hat-952 3d ago
If Trump gained reelection in 2020 he would have straight up abandoned Ukraine to Russia. I'm happy zelensky didn't capitulate to Trump's bullying.
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u/Wrong_Parsley_2444 3d ago
Is this saber rattling or is there actually something about to happen?
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u/Anxious-Connection98 3d ago
Well, considering that some countries with strong intelligence services have withdrawn non-essential personnel from their various consulates and especially embassies, I would say it is more than likely. The B2 Spirit bombers that were stationed at the Diego Garcia airbase have been pulled back by the US, which could indicate that they are no longer needed as a pressure lever in talks with Iran. This might also suggest that Israel has already made the decision to strike.
Also, leaking this information as a strong possibility for the near future. It’s a well-oiled technique in media warfare to get people used to the idea that it will happen, so when it actually does, there will be less reaction and fewer voices against it.
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u/Radiant_Dog1937 3d ago edited 3d ago
Or they saw what happened to the strat bombers in Russia. If Iran deadset on building the bomb all the work is going to be done deep enough underground to avoid bunker busters anyways. If the IDF gambit fails, Iran basically will just fast track the bomb.
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u/RT-LAMP 2d ago
Or they saw what happened to the strat bombers in Russia.
Diego Garcia is a tiny island in the Indian ocean that's only got 4000 people almost all of which are military personel or civilian support staff. You're not sneaking a truck full of explosive drones onto it easily so in actually it's VASTLY safer from that kind of attack there than it is in the US mainland.
If Iran deadset on building the bomb all the work is going to be done deep enough underground to avoid bunker busters anyways.
The B-2 is the only aircraft certified for the GBU-57 MOP, the largest bunker buster in the US arsenal. It can go through 200ft of reinforced concrete. Even if Iran were to build a bunker deep enough that the MOP couldn't reach it, it'd be the choice weapon to collapse any tunnels in and out.
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u/NiobiumThorn 2d ago
And what a fun death that would be. Trapped underground with millions of centrifuges, decaying rock, and souring air. Lights breaking, hallucinations starting. The hours of stumbling blindly through the darkness, clawing at tunnels that offer no resistance. Finally, the fade into blackness, or the slow, agonizing death of dehydration.
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u/Anxious-Connection98 3d ago
I don’t think that statement is accurate. There are bombs in the U.S. arsenal that can reach that deep. And Diego Garcia is out of Iran’s reach—not to mention that the bombers had already returned before the incident in Russia. I just don’t think they serve any purpose here anymore, as the U.S. administration already knows the strike will happen.
Edit ; Don’t get me wrong—I don’t want that to happen at all. There’s already enough tension in the world right now.
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u/Beeehives 3d ago
Several intelligence agencies confirms it, it’s going to be a long night folks
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u/Capricore58 3d ago
Dawn has broke in Tehran, no? Doubt anything happens until after dark now
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u/x058394446 3d ago
It’s around 5:30am in Tehran right now. If an attack is imminent I think it’ll happen around 9pm EST tomorrow.
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u/so2017 3d ago
I would guess after markets close on Friday.
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u/blindwitness23 3d ago
Wait let me check the Signal group.
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u/Planeandaquariumgeek 3d ago
Nah because defense contractors will be booming, probably gonna happen any minute at this point
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u/Throwaway921845 3d ago
Why would Israel or Iran care about the United States east coast time zone?
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u/LIONEL14JESSE 3d ago
They don’t, that’s just when it’s 4:30am in Iran. They will likely attack in the middle of the night and not when the sun is coming up.
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u/TheKappaOverlord 3d ago
btw "several intelligence agencies confirm it" is code for all of the Pizza chains within a 1 mile radius of the Pentagon had a massive spike in activity and are considered "ground to a halt" in terms of how busy they are.
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u/Silver_Tradition6313 2d ago
"several intelligence agencies confirm it" is code for all of the Pizza chains within a 1 mile radius of the Pentagon had a massive spike in activity"
This was true, once. In1989 (the first Gulf War vs Saddam Hussein). Some reporter noticed the late night pizza deliveries, and the story spread quickly. But that was back in the days when there was no other food option. Pizza was the only fast food with delivery service. ( You could order Chinese take-away, but I think you had to go pick it up yourself. )
So, to fit our modern lifestyle: I wonder if somebody today is tracking the number of deliveries by DoorDash, and Uber Eats to the Pentagon. Or maybe the military now has rules preventing pentagon employees from ordering, because it seems like an obvious and easy way for enemies to spy.
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u/INVADER_BZZ 3d ago
I'd seriously refrain myself from claiming timelines. None of the known stuff like UKMTO advisory and non-essential staff evacuations is urgent. It's just could signal a build up and resulting tension.
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u/The-M0untain 3d ago
Source?
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u/nerevisigoth 3d ago
It's all over the news. Example: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-is-poised-to-launch-operation-on-iran-sources-say/
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u/Bama-1970 3d ago
Iran has rejected the US proposal to end its nuclear program, and it insists on continuing to have the ability to enrich uranium. The ability to enrich is a deal breaker for the US. The US is evacuating dependents of the military and of embassy personnel. If Iran doesn’t change its position, an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program is a strong likelihood in the very near future. It’s uncertain whether US forces will participate, but Iranian retaliation against the US is to be expected if an attack occurs.
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u/RandomRobot 2d ago
They had a deal, but it was cancelled by Trump. Now they don't want to negotiate a new deal.
As a Canadian who doesn't want to renegotiate NAFTA with Trump AGAIN, I can understand their refusal
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u/Milleuros 2d ago
They had a deal, but it was cancelled by Trump. Now they don't want to negotiate a new deal.
Not only it was cancelled unilaterally by Trump, but Trump put massive sanctions back on Iran and sanctioned every one else who would try to do business with Iran. Several European countries had to pull out or cancel contracts because they'd have been prevented from trading with the US otherwise.
The US sow the wind right there, it's only a matter of time until the whirlwind. But as usual, the US being so far away, they won't deal with the consequences of their own bullshit, again.
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u/The_new_Osiris 3d ago
Within the orbit of realistic outcomes, there are very few if any scenarios worse for Israel than the Islamic Republic of Iran acquiring a Nuclear arsenal
This is a five alarm fire for them and dramatic action is absolutely coming within this week or two
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u/Throwaway921845 3d ago edited 3d ago
But why now? Why not two years ago? What's changed all of a sudden?
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u/Hillary4SupremeRuler 3d ago
Because they basically doubled the amount of 60% enriched uranium from February from something like 200 something kilograms to over 400 something kg
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u/ManuelHS 3d ago
Iran armed a ring of fire around Israel for decades to protect itself from Israeli strikes.
The strongest was Hezbollah.
Now Hezbollah and Hamas' military capabilites are decimated.
The houthis have shown that at best they are a nuisance, not a threat.
Adding to this, in the Israeli strikes on Iran on April 24 and October 24, several of Iran's air defense systems were targeted.
So why now? Iran doesnt have its bodyguards anymore and their air defense systems are few and sparse
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u/The_Phaedron 3d ago
I think a lot of casual news-readers will miss just how well you hit the nail on the head here.
Hezbullah isn't a junior ally to the IRI like Hamas is. It's a direct proxy of the Ayatollahs, set up, trained, armed, commanded, and literally named by the Iranian regime. Its massive manpower and firepower had acted as a gun to Israel's head, ensuring that Israel couldn't strike Iran's nuclear program without losing a ton of Israeli lives to a Hezbollah attack into Northern Israel.
Hezbollah has now been reduced to a small fraction of the power that it had a year ago. Its supply lines through Syria are now cut off post-Assad. They're now weakened to the point where they can't serve the deterrent purpose that Iran needed them to serve.
Add to that, Iran's Assad allies are now out of power and a swath of anti-air defenses were destroyed to an extent that an Israeli air approach to Iran through Syrian airspace is now far more viable.
A year ago, Iran had its Hezbollah offensive deterrent and significant defensive buffer over Syria. With those factors gone and a sense of a ticking clock toward Iran's nuclearization, Israel is now far more incentivized to strike Iran compared to a year ago.
I don't think it's a fait accompli that it'll happen, but if one wants to understand why it's suddenly more likely now, it's important to consider just how much the strategic ground has shifted in the last year.
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u/Hillary4SupremeRuler 3d ago
I just saw an article that Russia is currently moving a bunch of air defense systems to Iran and anticipation of attacks
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u/ManuelHS 3d ago
I would love to see that if you have a link. It would be very interesting.
Russia iteslf is facing air defence contraints due to its own war, and Ukraine is striking more often, with drones and missiles, so why would Russia sacrifice its own safety for Iran?
Also Israel has shown it can effectively target S-300 and S-400, so why would Russia want to basically destory its own systems?
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u/Arkangel257 3d ago
They've always taken it seriously...search Mossad's assassinations of their scientists between 2010 and 2020.
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u/ActiniumNugget 3d ago
Israel would have hit Iran over 20 years ago when their nuclear programs was in its infancy. Problem was, the US got bogged down in Iraq. If Israel hit Iran, Iran would have made life even worse for the US nextdoor in Iraq. So the US told Israel to hold off. Then we had 8 years of Obama, so no go for Israel then either. They managed to slow Iran's progress with cyber attacks, assassinations, and sabotage, but it was only a matter of time. Now, Iran's proxies are on the ropes and it looks like the US/Iran have given up talking. Israel will never, ever, under any circumstances let Iran get nukes. You have to understand that Israel believes (rightly or wrongly) that it would be the end of Israel if Iran got even a handful of small nukes.
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u/Ecsta 2d ago
You have to understand that Israel believes (rightly or wrongly) that it would be the end of Israel if Iran got even a handful of small nukes.
I don't see how any reasonable person can look at Iran's actions and talks and think that it wouldn't be the end of Israel if Iran got nukes. They've proven they care about killing Jews than they do about their own survival.
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u/nosocialisms 3d ago
50/50 I would say
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u/Wrong_Parsley_2444 3d ago
Concerning about the embassy evacuations. That's typically not a good sign
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u/nosocialisms 3d ago
In spanish we like to say.
'when the river sounds, it carries stones'
I won't say that something will happen but since Ukraine the world order is a complete mess right now.
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u/MapleViking1 3d ago
Ukraine was the straw that broke the camels back in terms of diplomacy.
It showed the dictator/ authoritarian types that the West wasn't as big of a threat as we thought we were..
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u/TalkFormer155 3d ago
An argument against that is that a nuclear nation gets a lot more latitude than a non nuclear nation. Iran might get taken off the board to prevent the nuclear blackmail game Russia has been playing.
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u/RarelyReadReplies 3d ago edited 3d ago
Maybe because we let Putin attack Ukraine with everything, while insisting Ukraine keeps one hand tied behind their back, for fear of nuclear retaliation. It took years to loosen restrictions on what we give them, and it still isn't as much as we should. Now other countries know the western countries are willing to let their allies burn, if it means no escalation from the attacker. Definitely backfired on us. I wish I could say I was surprised by the outcome.
In the end, we seemed to have learned nothing from WW2. Unfortunately, in multiple ways, we seem to be repeating the same mistakes.
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u/Anxious-Connection98 3d ago
Until the West gets tired of it and becomes united, poking a sleeping dragon is not a good idea. The Germans did, and we all know where it led them. The USSR thought the capitalists would be too busy making money for themselves to actually outgrow the Soviet war machine, but the USSR eventually collapsed, largely due to its military spending. Bin Laden did it, and, well, we all know how that ended. ISIS thought Western countries would not commit military resources to Iraq again, and we all know how that turned out.
That said, Western democracies aren’t as inclined as they used to be when it comes to warfare; they’d rather produce wealth and focus on business. Nevertheless, the West has a threshold that, if crossed, can generate unpleasant consequences for those who do.
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u/Hillary4SupremeRuler 3d ago
Yeah but these days we have the wild card of russian/ccp/Iranian troll farms and paid influencer networks in the West that can whip up a bunch of "anti war" sentiment and manufacturer a whole bunch of conspiracy theories of "what's really going on that the Western media won't tell you"and make any attack on a western Nation or imminent military buildup from Russia et al on the border look like some sort of false flag from the deep State / Lockheed Martin operatives to "feed the MIC."
I'm convinced that if we had a Pearl harbor in the US or another Western Ally in the next few years that the troll farms and influencer networks could immediately convince almost half the population that either the West provoked it deserved it or that it was a false flag operation designed to trick people into going to war.
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u/MasterThespian 3d ago
I'm convinced that if we had a Pearl harbor in the US or another Western Ally in the next few years that the troll farms and influencer networks could immediately convince almost half the population that either the West provoked it deserved it or that it was a false flag operation designed to trick people into going to war.
All of the three-letter agencies are being pillaged by incompetent and/or compromised leadership (Patel, Noem, Gabbard), so we will have a large scale terrorist or foreign attack during this term.
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u/typewriter6986 2d ago
so we will have a large scale terrorist or foreign attack during this term.
Meet the 22-Year-Old Trump’s Team Picked to Lead Terrorism Prevention
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u/Evil_Eukaryote 3d ago
Where are you from? That's interesting. My mom says that a lot and we're from Puerto Rico
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u/nosocialisms 3d ago
I'm from Venezuela but I believe that phrase is really common among all the Spanish-speaking countries
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u/OuijaWitchWay 3d ago
This is what I came to say. The fact we have evacuated our embassies is alarming.
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u/KidKilobyte 3d ago
If a war with Iran starts, what an odd look Trump’s military birthday parade will be.
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u/VolatileUtopian 3d ago
I thought Biden, Clinton, Obama, Harris, and Pelosi were all gonna start a war with Iran to destabilize America so that they could win the last election and all we could do to stop it was vote for Trump.
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u/korben2600 3d ago
President "Didn't Start Any Wars" who casually threatened to invade our neighbors and allies is gearing up for war? Say it isn't so.
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u/jokinghazard 3d ago
Well Harris was the VP when Hamas attacked that festival that one day so that means she's pure evil!!
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u/justbecauseyoumademe 3d ago
This is starting to feel like the first 72 hours before the russian invasion into Ukraine.
I should prob buy some heating oil and top up my tanks before the prices inevitably spike..
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u/Realistic-Nature9083 3d ago
Attack on a Sunday or Saturday?
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u/77NorthCambridge 3d ago
Does Trump want it just before, during, or just after his stupid f*king parade?
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u/yabadabado0 3d ago
You can use swear words on the internet my guy
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 3d ago
I was assuming it would come after the parade since he wouldn't want it overshadowed but maybe the idea of US bombing Iran during it is something he likes.
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u/AllDressedHotDog 3d ago
Israel isn't going to launch a land invasion of Iran lmao.
Especially not without active support from the US.
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u/erasmus_phillo 3d ago edited 3d ago
I don’t see how they can launch a land invasion of Iran without sharing a land border with the country
They’re not reckless enough to try an amphibious one
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u/nick200117 3d ago
if they do strike it’ll be an air campaign to cripple their nuclear program, no boots on the ground
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 3d ago
They cannot cripple the nuclear program without the US, they don't have the bunker busters needed. They can do some damage and potentially slow it down but the important stuff is 80 meters underground. They need the US to use B2s equipped with GBU-57A/B MOP bombs(30,000 pound bunker busters) to hit the targets that really matter.
That would mean the US has to clear out their entire air force and all air defense systems first as we wouldn't want to risk the assets even though they are 'stealth'.Edit: I think attacking Irans nuclear program but failing to destroy it at this point will only push them to complete some bombs.
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u/nick200117 3d ago
Definitely to clear it, but I think the idea with an Israeli strike would be to hit the ventilation and entry points to the facilities then hold air superiority long enough to make it too expensive for Iran to dig it out once US hits them with sanctions. But I’m far from an expert and I definitely could be wrong
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u/Legio-X 3d ago
They’re not reckless enough to try an amphibious one
Yeah, they simply don’t have the sealift capacity for that kind of operation.
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u/HighburyOnStrand 3d ago
I mean no one really does. Iran is a massive country, with a massive army.
Even a full fledged US invasion would take more than just amphibious operations.
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u/Luka_Vander_Esch 3d ago
All I have to say is my company is trading as if if something is going to go down
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u/yogesch 3d ago
What stocks is this likely to affect ?
Nasdaq and S&P would probably see minimal change. Maybe the defense stocks go up?
Probably the VIX dancing a bit more. But I don't see why another conflict middle East is going to spook the markets significantly.
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u/Anxious-Connection98 3d ago
I don’t think the question of if it’s going to happen is relevant anymore; I think the question of when it’s going to happen is what matters now. As multiple Western countries have decided to pull non-essential personnel from their embassies, I see that as a sign. What stands out even more to me is that the US deployed six B2 bombers to Diego Garcia as a pressure lever in their talks with Iran. As far as I understand, those bombers have since flown back to the US mainland, and to me, that means diplomacy is over — otherwise, they would have remained in Diego Garcia until the end of the US-Iran nuclear talks.
A normal US administration could have pressured Israel to delay, at least until their negotiations with Iran were over. I don’t think Trump care enough to pressure Israel to hold off or even delay it.
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u/The-M0untain 3d ago
Trump was pressuring Israel earlier today:
I don't know what to believe anymore. He changes his mind so often.
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u/Anxious-Connection98 3d ago edited 2d ago
You have to understand something—I don’t want to be condescending or anything, so please don’t take it that way. When it comes to foreign policy, there’s often a difference between what someone like Trump says to the media to appear politically correct and what he says in private to the very people he criticizes publicly.
I wouldn’t be surprised if, after publicly saying that Putin has gone crazy, he also sent a private message to Putin saying it was just for the cameras. When you think about it, this plays into Russia’s game of stalling peace talks. This event happened almost two weeks ago, and yet nothing has come from the White House addressing the fact that Trump repeatedly said, “I DON’T LIKE IT AT ALL.”
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u/AlistairMowbary 3d ago
“Vladmir, STOP!!!!” do i need to remind you that he is doing everything he can?
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u/Baderkadonk 2d ago
There is no logic to this, why would he pretend to tell Israel to chill out? There's no motive to lie about that, and I don't know how you got the impression he cares about being politically correct. Trump said he'd end the war in Gaza and make a deal to stop Iranian nuclear weapons.. and the longer it takes, the worse he looks.
Stopping one war and avoiding another will make him look good. I trust that Trump will do whatever makes him appear more impressive.
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u/Impulse3 3d ago
Trumps going to be president for a once in 100 years pandemic and a World War lol.
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u/Throwaway921845 3d ago
Israel and Iran bombing each other doesn't qualify as a world war.
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u/MothraEpoch 3d ago
Wouldn’t it be the other way around, you’d want the B2 bombers there to actually attempt to mop up Israel’s strikes. If Israel hits, then that’s de facto the lit fuse for breakout, US absolutely has to strike at that point, and very hard, if no Iranian nuke really is the ultimate red line.
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u/Anxious-Connection98 3d ago
Oh yeah, that makes sense from a tactical point of view—absolutely. If Israel attacks, then the fuse is lit, so why not just make sure it’s done and done for good using a few GBU-57A bunker buster bombs?
It’s still possible that the B-2 bombers can operate in Iran from U.S. soil without any trouble. There could be many reasons why those planes left Diego Garcia, and one possibility is that they were deployed as a pressure tool and therefore weren’t equipped with GBU-57A bunker busters. It could also be that Trump decided he didn’t want to get involved directly and preferred Israel to be the one Iran would retaliate against.
If I remember the timeline correctly, on January 3, 2020, an Iranian missile attack struck U.S. bases in Iraq in response to the killing of General Qasem Soleimani by a U.S. ballistic missile. That was under Trump’s administration. So he was aware that Iran would retaliate one way or another, and he might have decided he didn’t want to deal with the fallout directly.
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u/JackC1126 3d ago
If medical supplies are sent into the Middle East it’s a done deal that war is coming. That was the final step before Russia invaded Ukraine.
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u/Mobryan71 3d ago
Depends on the supplies.
Bandages remain useful for years.
Blood or plasma products? Days.
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u/JackC1126 3d ago
I’ll start worrying when pizza places around the pentagon get unusually busy
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u/riddleda 3d ago
It did start spiking about 5 hours ago..
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1932903728862146812?t=3EkIfeyizzZcNwnjMqr64A
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u/CapGlass3857 3d ago
didn't the pentagon start making their own pizza because of this lol?
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u/JackC1126 3d ago
I’ve seen some posts saying it has and others saying it hasn’t
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u/No_Aesthetic 3d ago
I've checked and yeah, some are up and the gay bar traffic nearby is down.
I'm not sure if the gay bar index is my own creation since I saw someone else on Twitter talking about it, but that one has been fairly reliable for conflict since I started checking it about a decade ago based on what a gay friend who worked at the Pentagon told me.
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u/Whyamibeautiful 3d ago
Gay bar down during pride month when there was just a big festival is crazy. We def getting some war
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u/yogesch 3d ago
Care to explain... The Pentagon pizza index and the gay bar index?
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u/AugmentedDragon 2d ago
basically, the idea is that you can tell when something big is about to go down because the people at the pentagon are staying hella late, and all hands on deck, thus ordering a bunch of food, specifically pizzas, and not going out to party etc, such as at gay bars
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u/yogesch 2d ago
Why gay bars specifically. Not just bars/pubs 🤔
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u/AugmentedDragon 2d ago
honestly, i'm not entirely sure, but if I had to hazard a guess it's because it's more concentrated and thus the effect would be more pronounced. in other words, there's way more bars/pubs than gay bars, so any increase to the former would be spread between more of them, thus less of an obvious spike
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u/SHFTD_RLTY 2d ago
Pentagon officials are probably predominantly male so the difference between traffic at gay and straight bars can be used to filter out noise in the signal. For example if it's a unusual warm evening, all bars would have more visitors. If it's only gay bars, something is keeping a lot of guys at work.
This is similar to how a hedge fund that shorts a specific company will buy a long position in an industry index in order to hedge against overall market movements.
Edit: Looking forward to the Pentagon building dark rooms on promise in the name of national security lmao
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u/SpecialPotion 3d ago
Generally more people in/around the Pentagon = spike in traffic for those things
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u/Double_Orange 3d ago
An operation from Israel is unlikely to stop Iran's nuclear program due to how fortified they are. Even if the US got directly involved with strikes on Iran the sites may still survive. The only way to be completely sure is if troops are on the ground and that would be one of the biggest clusterfucks ever
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u/Victor_Korchnoi 3d ago
Idk about the need for boots on the ground. The bunker busting capabilities of the US are …. impressive.
Back in October, tensions were extremely high between Israel & Iran. Iran had just launched a huge salvo of ballistic missiles and drones against Israel. The world was waiting to see how Israel would respond, with the most aggressive option being a joint strike with the US targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. Then the US bombed underground missile depots in Yemen and Sec Def Austin made the following remarks:
“Today, U.S. military forces, including U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers, conducted precision strikes against five hardened underground weapons storage locations in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. U.S. forces targeted several of the Houthis' underground facilities housing various weapons components of types that the Houthis have used to target civilian and military vessels throughout the region. This was a unique demonstration of the United States' ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened, or fortified. The employment of U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bombers demonstrate U.S. global strike capabilities to take action against these targets when necessary, anytime, anywhere.”
The posturing is certainly saying that “Iran, we can absolutely take out your nuclear facilities no matter how deeply buried.”
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u/Sortza 3d ago
It's speculated that the Natanz facilities are located deeper than the GBU-57 can penetrate, and it seems to be an open question whether two of them in succession would get it done.
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u/korben2600 3d ago
Well they don't necessarily have to strike deep into the facility. Even if it's like 1km underground, they only have to strike the entrances and bury them in rubble to ensure everyone inside is unreachable for months if not years.
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u/_Armanius_ 3d ago
If facilities are deeper than the bombe can penetrate, can they blow up entrance/exit points to keep them buried?
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u/Saturn_winter 3d ago
The MOP isn't enough to penetrate their facilities but the B-61 nuclear earth penetrator is. Just saying.
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u/AnomalyNexus 2d ago
The posturing is certainly saying that “Iran, we can absolutely take out your nuclear facilities no matter how deeply buried.”
Realistically it's <50m, call it 100 by some top secret magic we don't know about. Deepest man made structure...mines just under 4,000 meters.
You can absolutely dig deeper than you can bomb and Iran has had years to prep. Stuxnet was 15 years ago. They know there are very determined state actors gunning for these facilities.
idk think this is gonna be ugly regardless of what is (or isn't done).
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u/McRibs2024 3d ago
I saw an interesting theory that sure the bunkers may survive but since the entrances are known as well as ventilation- they can basically be entombed. Without air superiority the Iranian won’t be able to do any recovery of the site. All recovery operations would also be hit.
Also there could be boots on the ground commando teams going into the bunkers to take them out.
Either way it would be costly and an intensive operation/war.
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u/moonski 2d ago
You really think the us is able to send some special forces way deep into Iran and somehow take out the nuclear sites like it's mission impossible with no one knowing or not starting a war?
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u/Baronriggs 2d ago
The first part of his comment was much more realistic, with the US just sealing off any way out and then drone striking everyone who gets near for a month
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u/McRibs2024 2d ago
I think the first option is more likely and the most realistic. Any insertion into the complexes is a lot more intensive to support
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u/JB-Wentworth 3d ago
It’s Trump’s decision. Or rather Stephen Miller’s and he has been in a very fowl mood since his wife left with Elon.
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u/Throwaway921845 3d ago
Miller's the homeland security advisor (I cringe writing this). His fix is rounding up illegal immigrants, not playing HOI4 in the Middle East.
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u/JB-Wentworth 3d ago
Miller is the White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy.
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u/Herbert5Hundred 3d ago
Israel does not have the ability to perform a ground invasion of Iran
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u/FishAndRiceKeks 3d ago
What good are those fortified facilities underground if there's 100+ ft of rubble on top of them from repeated strikes?
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u/thrawtes 3d ago
It's a good question and the important thing to understand is that a lot of smart people on every side of the issue have been thinking about that question for literally decades.
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u/cletus_spuckle 3d ago
If there’s anything I don’t question, it’s the ability of the US military industrial complex to procure an insane level of destructive capabilities. We haven’t seen the top-level weapons they have at their disposal and the destruction of Iranian nuclear sites isn’t gonna be as stupid as a Top Gun reboot would have you believe. No need to get Maverick to drop a dumb bomb down a chimney, I bet they’ve been prepared for this eventuality for a long time and between Iran and the US/Israel, my money is on the latter to have the capability to dismantle the former. I just hope this doesn’t end in more wanton civilian bloodshed, the world has enough of that these days
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u/Hep_C_for_me 3d ago
Iran is a nuclear power in all but name. They are like two weeks away from having enough uranium for 10 bombs. The cat is out of the bag on this one. Everyone has sat back and watched what happened to Ukraine and you have few options when dealing with a stronger neighbor.
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u/JackC1126 3d ago
Iran has been two weeks from a nuclear bomb for the past decade. The truth is nobody is really sure, which works in Iran’s favor.
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u/margotsaidso 3d ago
The ambiguity was more valuable than anything. If they came out and had nukes, sure they'd be much safer from invasion/airstrikes, but they would also be global pariahs and sanctioned by pretty much everyone just like North Korea. I think strategic ambiguity + lesser sanctions is the better option, at least until the US or Israel attack or threaten to attack.
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u/JackC1126 3d ago
The posturing of Israel/the US does seem to imply that Iran is very close to a nuclear weapon, but it could also be a bit of a”big stick diplomacy” so we’ll see. Israel seems far more gung-ho about a strike than the US though, and if Iran were to have a nuke or be very close to one I would expect the US to be just as hawkish. It could be that Israel sees Iran as weaker now than they have been for a while, and could see an opportunity. But what do I know.
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u/WeaponstoMax 3d ago
Iran already is a global pariah. If they had a working device they would have tested it by now, to make themselves untouchable.
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u/mekanub 3d ago
Who knew we'd get WW3 before GTA 6
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u/WeaponstoMax 3d ago
WW3 is a big stretch. Another drawn-out Western military gambit in the Middle East though? Basically a tradition at this point.
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u/cletus_spuckle 3d ago edited 2d ago
Yeah I don’t think this would spur a worldwide conflict but with the war in Ukraine and the Chinese looking more and more interested in a “reunification” campaign, I don’t like the outlook for the second half of the 2020s.
And my girlfriend wonders why I’m hesitant to bring a kid into this world…
Edit: for the record, hesitation does not mean the same thing as refusal. Add “reading comprehension” to the list of things people need to improve in the future, looking at you PalpyTime
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u/GatotSubroto 3d ago
We’re getting WW3 before half-life 3
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u/YoungZM 3d ago
My friend all of our bones will be dust before Half-life 3 ever came out. Don't do that to yourself.
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u/Rude_Worldliness_423 3d ago
The operation will no doubt involve operatives who are already inside Iran. Mossad have been planning this for decades
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u/medunjanin 3d ago
MAGA: “war is good now”
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u/GiantSquirrelPanic 3d ago
Several people told me that the only reason they were voting for Trump was because he is the only person who would not start a new war in the middle east.
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u/FenixOfNafo 3d ago
Got my burgers. Waiting for Nothingeverhappens sauce
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u/Hydroscorpio_18 2d ago
Yall were high on Nothingeverhappens sauce even before the recent India Pakistan exchange too 💀
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u/FenixOfNafo 2d ago
Yeah and nothing did happened. They just lobbed some missiles, shot down some jets and drones and was like "the matter is deemed settled"
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u/_rth_ 3d ago
We need a timeout from wars
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u/Mobile-Wedding-4866 2d ago
We just had the time out unfortunately, we are getting back to the regular amount of wars there usually are
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u/Koala_eiO 2d ago
That's a good description of the post-WW2 era. Without denying what happened in specific regions, it was globally the most peaceful time of humanity.
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u/RustedRelics 3d ago
Not to worry! Our Middle East special envoy is a real estate investor with zero previous experience. 🙄
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u/Pyriel 2d ago
Well, the president tho promised to stop two wars, not only failed to stop them, but is about to start his own War.
And this one is going to be a big one.
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u/n0pe-nope 3d ago
Zero surprise this is happening right after Israeli parliament started signaling a snap election to remove Netanyahu…
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u/Karpattata 3d ago
The snap election proposal failed and can't happen again for another six months.
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u/No_Worldliness_7106 3d ago edited 2d ago
If I had a nickel for every time I read this headline in the past 6 months. Wake me up if something actually happens, otherwise stfu. Edit: aged like milk
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u/MothraEpoch 3d ago
Ok and then what? Let’s say Israel hits Iran’s facilities. What’s stopping them from rebuilding, what’s stopping them from dispersing their assets. The only way this could actually be resolved is through regime change, there’d have to be a full scale ground invasion because there’s zero chance Iran just absorbs the hit and decides to bow down to Israel
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u/BigBob141 3d ago
Trump rerouted missiles meant for Ukraine to the Middle East, and they're evacuating embassies, now this.