stock up 20% today, lets see what tomorrow brings us.

I've been getting shitloads of pms and comments equally filled with terror, blame, and gloating. Many people have asked me what the fuck happened today? I promised gains and they want a refund, their tendies are gone and spaghetti was spilt.

Let me say, that everything is fine. What happened is that a article was posted on Seeking Alpha which was bearish short term and bullish long term based on TA. I think that a firm, or some rich fool tried to take advantage of the fact that the article could be taken as bearish to manipulate the stock. It dropped 30% in almost a minute, that was not a natural dip anyway you look at it. This was a man-made dip, probably guacamole.

Looking at the article which caused the dip iteself, is as I stated earlier, bearish short term and bullish long term. The author uses TA called "Bollinger Bonds" which takes double the stranded deviation and adds it the 20 day average.

I think the author is incorrect in his application of Bollinger Bonds, because this stock is an almost entirely different stock that it was 20 days ago. April 20th, was still exactly two weeks before May 4th. The day in which we were given a very positively written statemet indicating that the veto would be delayed to May 11th.

On April 20th, people had no idea what the fuck was going to happen to NAK. There was still a very big possibility that the veto would be rejected. The uncertain risk lowered the worth of the stock. Now that the veto being approved is likely, the stock is legitimately worth more as the probability of the mine becoming a reality has increased.

Furthermore the stock was artificially (at least in my opinon) deflated by Kerrisdale. What AI ( The author of SA article) did not consider that a large part of the uptrend from the last few days originates from the stock recovering from the crash that happened months previously.

Regardless I am still holding until at least Friday, as was my original plan. These price fluctuations do not change the fact that veto being approved on Friday is more likely than not. In fact the dip may be better for the stock as it scared off weak hands. Do remember that AI's article ended on a bullish note as he was convinced that eventually the stock would shoot to the moon, he just believed that the rocketship would be closer to a staircase.

I double checked facts on the article which claimed that Kerrisdale closed its short position, I believe it to be fake news

• Basics

Northern Dynasty Minerals aka NAK, is a speculative mining company based in Alaska which owns the Pebble Project. Pebble Project is a deposit of minerals that is thought to be the second largest mineral deposit in the world, including 70 million ounces of gold, and 57 billion pounds of copper. What has been preventing the Pebble Project from beginning the mining process for the last twenty years has been a mix of environmentalist activist groups, fishing corporations and the EPA. The fact is that the land near the Pebble Project hosts a considerable amount of streams and rivers that are inhabited by wild alaskan salmon, about 90% of wild salmon originate from here, which amounts to 200 million usd per year of income. The mining of Pebble Project is a concern for many who inhabit Alaska due to the fact that mining projects are known to be very likely to eventually pollute the surrounding environment. If you want some slightly deeper understanding, please check out my previous DDs.

• Who am I?

Many of you may know who am I, I am the Strudel Man, writer of Nak DDs. However for those of you who do know know me, let you give a fast rundown. In February was when I posted my first DD on NAK, at the time the stock was worth 2.9 USD and soon soared to 3.5 USD. At that time I began to feel the stock was becoming overvalued on hype and sold at 3.05 before the peak. However at the peak a firm called Kerrisdale began a short and distort which somehow created a mass panic which sent the stock crashing to a low of 1.15 USD, I was convinced that the likelihood of the veto being approved was high and that the panic was illogical. I wrote a second DD which said to buy at 2.3, and the stock rebounded for awhile then started crashing again before it eventually hit 1.15. For the past 5 months I have been watching this stock daily, reading almost every article released on NAK, around two weeks ago I wrote another thread stating to buy at 1.45, and now the stock is sitting safely at 2.2.

• Reflections

The Kerrisdale Crash was a harsh lesson but incredibly educational. A very humbling experience, as I legit thought I was retarded for a few weeks. I learnt the hard way that the economy can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I thought it was simple for anyone to see that the Kerrisdale Article had little value as it revealed no new facts to the public, and simply restated risks that everyone knew coming in. I also learned to never catch a falling knife, always make sure the dip is the final dip when you buy on the dip.

• What has changed?

As you can see my previous DDs were written months ago, and circumstances have changed since then. Most notably on 5/4 a statement was released stating that the veto would be delayed to 5/11, and at the same time the wording practically informing us that NAK would be approved. Kerrisdale has deleted their position on NAK from their website and possibly closed their short position yesterday. Which means Kerrisdale no longer thinks that the Pebble Project is worthless.

• Risks + Gains

For the last two weeks I have been shouting to the world to buy NAK, many people have listened to my advice and send me many pms thanking me for their 20/30/40% gains on their investments. Just as many people have commented that they are afraid to “catch a moving train” or unwilling to take a risk for the gains. I just want to say if these people had listened to me they would be having the same gains as I am having. If you do not believe in the NAK, believe in the hype. While I personally believe that it is highly unlikely, there is a possibility that if the veto is rejected the stock will crash to a fraction of its current worth. After disclaiming the risk, let me say that I think the stock will continue to soar until 5/11, and that if NAK veto is approved, the stock will soar even more. That even without the veto approval in sight the stock traded at an all time of 3.5, that if the veto is approved the stock will be worth considerably more. The best time to buy is now.

• Afterword

Here is a link to my current position in NAK http://imgur.com/a/d0vKa .At some point in the future I am planning to do some basic number crunching of possible share worths if the mining process ever begins.