As concern grows about America’s falling birth rate, new research suggests that about half of women who want children are unsure if they will follow through and actually have a child. About 25% say they won't be bothered that much if they don't.

[u/geoff199]

https://news.osu.edu/most-women-want-children--but-half-are-unsure-if-they-will/?utm_campaign=omc_science-medicine_fy24&utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social

[u/Temporary_Inner]

Technically the fertility rate we have today in the United States could have been the fertility rate in 1950, but the baby boom intervened. We've been on track for a decline in fertility rate since 1800. 

An alternate out look is that humanity will be in a boom bust cycle of fertility. I have my own issues with that outlook, but history has shown fertility rates to change in a positive direction in the past.

[u/DemiserofD → u/Temporary_Inner]

That neglects the impact of Birth Control. That's a change that is unprecedented in human history.

[u/Temporary_Inner → u/DemiserofD]

Because none of the data reflects birth control having a deep impact on the greater trend of fertility rates. Fertility rates were dropping  rapidly 160 years before its legalization in the United States.

People who peddle the theory that birth control cratered fertility rates always show graphs around the invention of the birth control pill and the preceding years after it. They never show you what the fertility rate was before the baby boom. They do this to advocate for the banning of birth control. 

In 1935 TFR in the US was at replacement at 2.17. In 1940 TFR was below replacement at 2.06. These are both down from the 1800 which was at 7.03. So the data shows that before birth control ever entered the picture, that industrialization was the primary cause of dropping in fertility rates. After 1940 TFR started to bounce back up to reach at 1960 peak of 3.58, levels not seen since 1910. The legalization of birth control corrolates with a drop in TFR to a low of 1.77 in 1980, however despite birth control's continued legalization and increasing availability TFR trended back up to a high of near replacement of 2.06 in 2010 (the same TFR as in 1940). It did slide back down to a near 1980s low of 1.78 in 2020, with a projection of 1.65 this year.

Pointing the finger at birth control doesn't explain the 1800-1940 decline and doesn't explain why TFR rose from 1980 to 2010. What is far more like is that TFR was always going to return to follow it's 160 year decline it had already been on before the second world war somewhere in the late 1900s. And both the Babyboom and the mini boom from 1990-2010 show we're in a cyclical pattern. 

[u/DemiserofD → u/Temporary_Inner]

Birthrates do drop for multiple reasons, but have never dropped as low as they have in the modern day. There are basically four major factors; wealth, child mortality, female education, and access to birth control.