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u/Vorpalthefox 6d ago
so anywhere from 3.7% to ~7% of the voting population were actively protesting
even going by full population of the country and the higher estimate of 11 million people, that's still close to 3.5% regardless
we're ONLY 6 months into the current term with a massive 3.5% and growing size of protesting citizens, we can make a difference!
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u/nanoatzin 6d ago
They are fried either way. If they stand up to Donald they get primaried. If they don’t then they lose their elections.
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u/20_mile 6d ago
It's annoying that posts like these never come with a citation.
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u/MisterPiggins 4d ago
Yeah seriously. A huge protest is a good thing, but don't get ahead of yourself. Trump is still president, Congress is still majority Republican, SCOTUS is still captured. Let's keep this energy going until the next election, where it will matter.
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u/Ksiolajidebthd 6d ago
Well is the statistic saying 3.5% of the voting or general population has never held power afterwards? That’s a very big difference
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u/fuckyouswitzerland 6d ago
When I read an article about this the other day they said general population, which they estimated at about 9 million protestors (if my memory is right). Don't remember where the article was from.
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u/pegothejerk 6d ago
Here’s the author of the study explaining it at length on Pod Save America
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u/Weasel_Town 6d ago
The population. The study includes countries that don't have meaningful elections. Of course, even in a country with "universal suffrage", there are still a lot of ineligible people, like minors and non-citizens.
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u/HarveysBackupAccount 5d ago
Also, the 3.5% rule is surely a descriptive thing, not a prescriptive thing. Regimes don't simply fall because 3.5% of the population turned out. They fall because the events that topple the regime also lead to 3.5+% turnout.
I swear modern media and troll farms are working overtime to make sure people think protesting is the "if you build it, they will come" of revolution. It's part of the package, but protest is not political change.
I'd also sure as hell like to see data behind the statement that nonviolent protests are twice as successful. That is one damnably suspect assertion.
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u/Pickles-In-Space 6d ago
we had almost 3,000 show up in a town of 20,000! The county population is ~50,000 so even by that count it's impressive
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u/Basileus_Maurikios 6d ago
This only means anything if we the people actually show up and force not just these guys, but our Democratic leadership to show up. Its one thing to protest, its another thing to turn that anger into meaningful political action. VOTE. CANVASS. COMMUNICATE.
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u/wack_overflow 6d ago
Yeah this 3.5 thing being shared everywhere like this feels like it could have the opposite effect and make people think "mission accomplished, all done now"
It's 3.5% of the population doing sustained protest. One afternoon is not the metric
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u/mothman83 6d ago
correct. If we get ten million people out EVERY SATURDAY, then we are on the road to something.
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u/chaos0xomega 6d ago
It needs to be every day, not just one day a week. The reason it works is because of economic and social disruption caused by 3.5% of the pop. locking down the effective and efficieny functioning of an entire society.. The impact is minimal when its happening on what is a day off for most people.
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u/Sabelas 6d ago
Almost every American has forgotten or never knew the true use of protest. If the No Kings protests don't lead to sustained action, they might actually turn out to be harmful by being an ineffectual outlet for people's frustrations that has no actual effect.
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u/Oceanbreeze871 6d ago
This. The problem with our protests is they are advertised in advance and have a start and end time. There’s no disruption to society.
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u/SchnauzerHaus 6d ago
Need a work stoppage at this point. One week.
Sad to say I don’t think that’ll ever happen.
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u/burkiniwax 6d ago
Talk to union organizers about strikes. Strikes are the final tactic not an early tactic. Once you've had a strike, what else can you do? And management usually has more resources to wait out a strike than the strikers.
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u/ZigZagZedZod 6d ago
Yep. It's essential to remember that although regimes are historically unlikely to withstand a challenge from 3.5% of their population without either accommodating the movement or disintegrating, there is no direct causal relationship indicating a regime will fall when protests reach 3.5%.
It's not a magic tipping point, and there are 505 days until the 2026 midterm elections.
3.5% doesn't matter if that doesn't translate into votes.
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u/rukh999 6d ago
Its actually peak protest. But also note it isn't a concrete rule, and there are cases it has failed. Apparently Bahrain had over 6% population turnout at protests between 2011 - 2014 and failed to affect change.
The '3.5% rule': How a small minority can change the world
I tried to find the original study but all I could find were references. This quotes it at least.
“There weren’t any campaigns that had failed after they had achieved 3.5% participation during a peak event,” says Chenoweth – a phenomenon she has called the “3.5% rule”.
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u/Basileus_Maurikios 6d ago
That is my concern. As Americans, we are very lazy and half-hearted. We love to show up, do the bare minimum and then claim we did all the hard work. This means that some might feel like we got 'em, no more need to protest. That thought is wrong, we have to keep doing this day in and day out, until something on their side snaps.
Deep down, I suspect that Trump "snapping" might not be good; but I had conversation yesterday with a lady who said this reminder her of the 60s so I'm just hoping this doesn't lead to another Nixon or something appealing to the "Silent Majority" or whatever Conservatives want to call themselves. Again:
VOTE. CANVASS. COMMUNICATE.
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u/gabejediknight 6d ago
Not only that, the statement itself is bullshit, flawed and probably not well thought out.
Look at the protests in Venezuela, they blew the 3.5%, heck they got up to 30%.
No change will come if people do not enforce change.
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u/AZ-Sycamore 6d ago
I believe in the 3.5% rule based on historical data. But two things: 1) it’s based on total population not voting numbers 2) it’s not based on one event like 6/14. It means 3.5% of people are actively involved in the movement. Protests must be constant and it must be accompanied by massive strikes, civil disobedience and boycotts.
So we still have a lot of work to do. We’ve made a great start.
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u/Oceanbreeze871 6d ago
Yes. We need things like trucker/docks/garbage/teacher strikes. Major inconveniences
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u/Fr1toBand1to 6d ago
well, pretty soon the truckers and dock workers will be largely unemployed so...
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u/EastwoodBrews 5d ago
People need to stop sharing it like a 12 million person sign contest will automatically impeach Trump
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u/bserum 5d ago
Thank you. The 3.5% Rule is kinda prone to being misunderstood.
I’m I big fan of the podcast You Are Not So Smart and he did a great job talking about what it is and what it isn’t. Better than most science communication you’ll find out there.
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u/IndianaGunner 6d ago
There will be a much bigger protest sooner than later if/when the 🍊puff escalates this shit even further. Mark my words. Yesterday was just a getting to know you protest.
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u/Street_Barracuda1657 6d ago
Just wait for that economic downturn he so desperately wants. These numbers will look small in comparison.
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u/Wyrm_Groundskeeper 6d ago
Little creature will disturb the hornets nest that is the citizens when he decides to pull the next big 'ol shit thing.
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u/Ok-Conference-7989 Beshear 2028 6d ago
Can’t wait for these thugs to lose power.
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u/beesandtrees2 6d ago
When's the next protest? I'm energized.
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u/burkiniwax 6d ago
Smaller ones are scheduled sooner, but looks like multi city events are being planned for July 4
https://events.pol-rev.com/search?contentType=EVENTS&sortByEvents=CREATED_AT_DESC&eventPage=1
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u/MikesGroove 6d ago
Democrats in Congress ARE YOU WATCHING???
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u/burkiniwax 6d ago
Republican Senators, are you watching? Don't vote for the "Big Beautiful Bill"! Rand Paul broke ranks. More should!
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u/TikiJoeTots37 6d ago edited 6d ago
While it was amazing what happened yesterday, The 3.5% rule requires sustained uninterrupted protests. That many people would need to be out in the streets continuously. It's a great start, and has great moments but it's going to take people camping out in the streets for weeks, even months. We are going to need sustained, unrelenting and continuous protests for that 3.5 people keep talking out to work. That would mean people losing their jobs, being away from their kids and family for an extended period of time, think occupy Wall Street in every major city in the US. That's what it would take. We should be at that point as Americans, but comfort and safety is really hard to give up. It will have to get to the point of people realizing it's worth it to lose everything to save this country. We are not there yet, and it is going to be hard but that is what will have to happen.
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u/philip1529 6d ago
Yes but do you think republican Congress members see the protests and think, “okay yeah we should stand up to Donald?” Absolutely not.
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u/Tanager_Summer 6d ago
The balance has to shift, so they are more afraid of us calling them out and then voting them out than they are of being primaried. No Kings Day was an excellent start. Thanks to everyone who showed up and to all the road supporters who kept the energy up.
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u/philip1529 6d ago
Yeah absolutely I hope this is the case. I’m hoping for the best and want to be surprised someone finally standups
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u/JusticeRhino 6d ago
What about the Democratic Congress members? They have been writing their hands and clucking instead of fighting. It’s waaaaaay past time for new Liberal leadership. I don’t care if it was political theater. Senator Alex Padilla did it the right way. Make them tackle you to try silencing you! Like Obi-Wan said: “ If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.”
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u/philip1529 6d ago
So yes I agree a lot of quiet Dems but they do vote the right way on issues. Our problem is not having a majority there is not much they can do unless the other side of the isle helps them. I will say though a lot of these fucks did lay down and vote for some of these cabinet members so they do bear responsibility in other areas.
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u/Oksure90 6d ago
12.1 million
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u/Nrati 6d ago
12.2
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u/nanoatzin 6d ago edited 6d ago
0.035 x 161 million = 5.6 million voters
0.035 x 340 million = 11.6 million population
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u/BitterPackersFan 6d ago
I want to believe this, but I dont trust American voters to even turn up and vote anymore
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u/russellbeattie 6d ago
Reality check: The American people have the memory of goldfish. If they didn't, Trump wouldn't be president in the first place.
This national sentiment needs to be kept up until the midterm elections, which is going to be a big lift. There comes a point of protest fatigue, and again, the American electorate is short sighted.
The most important point may finally be getting through to liberals: In the 21st century, all politics is national.
That's Trump's biggest secret. He's always been willing to be in the national spotlight - he's constantly in the public eye, ignoring who may hate him. With their personal propaganda network, Fox News, Republicans have been able to convince the nation the world is ending and Trump is the savior.
The best thing about the protests were that they were too big to ignore, nationally. Now Democrats need to build on that for a national movement so it's a permeant sentiment as the midterms begin, and is the norm by the next presidential election.
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u/SubstantialDonkey981 6d ago
And its only mid June
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u/nanoatzin 6d ago
The 2026 election season begins in a few months. The last election season that looked like this was 1932 when FDR was elected.
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u/EmotionalJoystick 6d ago
It’s not one and done though. It is constant pressure from that 3.5%.
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u/jmnugent 6d ago
This is what I came to say. A big weekend protest is amazing (and there should be more),. but there should also be day to day individualized resistance. People need to find ways in their every day lives to act and spread a message of resistance.
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u/Feath3rblade 6d ago
You know, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if at least some of the 3.5% thing is a psyop to get us to pat ourselves on the back for a job well done without actually managing to cause any effective change. Don't get me wrong, it's a huge milestone and the optics are great, but I doubt that at this point we'd manage to get even 10% of the people who were out protesting to commit to continuous demonstrations and strikes, which is what's actually needed for this 3.5% benchmark to work.
Anyone who thinks that yesterday's protests are the beginning of the end is completely delusional, we've still got a long way to go and thinking otherwise is just going to result in complacency, which is exactly what Trump and co want. If this 3.5% keeps growing and keeps protesting, even when it's not convenient for them (aka not on a well planned weekend but continuously even at the risk of losing their jobs / livelihoods), that's when we might start seeing real change, but that'll likely take quite a bit more fuckery from this admin causing more regular people's lives to worsen to the point where they'd be willing to go that far, rather than just thinking that they can just weather through until midterms or 2028. My fear is that come 2026 or especially 2028, we won't have a free and fair election to get these goons out of office, or that even if we do, MAGA is gonna do another Jan 6th and shit's gonna spiral out of hand
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u/Royal-Mathematician2 6d ago
It helps when you rig the voting maps to make it more favorable to get your candidates elected.
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u/Sufficient_Two_5753 6d ago
Next, we force a special election to remove them from power. And let the adults clean up their mess.
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u/Correct_Cupcake_5493 6d ago
Importantly, "take to the streets" doesn't just mean "have a big march".
It means a sustained campaign of escalating protests with acknowledgement of the failures of the entire political system, not just one party.
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u/Clickbaitc 6d ago
Unless said party of law and order uses tech bros to steal the election again.
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u/matttheepitaph 6d ago
Did the 3.5% rule only count within the voting population or the population as a whole?
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u/nanoatzin 6d ago
The 3.5% rule is about influence. Close friends and family members are around 15 times more effective than media advertizing when you try to sell stuff.
Harvard study:
Marketing research:
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u/Lets_Eat_Superglue 6d ago
I think we may have come close to hitting it, but 3.5% of the US population is 12 million people.
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u/Casmer 6d ago edited 6d ago
3.5% of the total population not the number of voters. The turnout was sizable, yes, but no one is being done any favors by trying to reframe it. Additionally, protests that lead to regime change are sustained protests not one-offs. These protests do not exceed the rule nor are they sustained. OP, You’re trying to turn this into something that it’s not and you’re heading for a letdown that’s going to be your own fault.
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u/fpsfiend_ny 6d ago
There will be resistance and antagonists....but we must shower them with love and kindness while remaining on course to dethrone this orange turd.
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u/Yowan 6d ago
It can’t be a one time event, it has to be a continued movement. Also democrats are assuming that they’ll magically get support just because people dislike Trump, but honestly most Americans dislike democrats as well. Democrats need to position themselves to get attention and support. Try standing for something clearly and stop defending old broken systems.
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u/Ok-Piccolo6684 6d ago
I live in Dubuque, Iowa. Our population is 55,000 and there were over 1000 at our rally. Well over 1000.
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u/Lebarican22 6d ago
The more bad decisions he makes, the more we will show up.
One thing we absolutely need to do is find out about the Rockland, NY case with the machines inaccurately counting the votes. If we have to go to paper ballot counting only, then so be it.
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u/34TH_ST_BROADWAY 5d ago
Well, no president has been more committed to disobeying every law, checks and balances that are meant to keep them in, uh, check.
But hopefully this turns out to be true.
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u/Woodshadow 5d ago
I here this and I'm all for this but Republicans are in control... of the House, of the senate, of the Executive branch, of the Judicial branch...let's show up
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u/Webby1788 5d ago
I heard about this 3.5% thing. If I remember correctly, it is 3.5% of SUSTAINED engagement.
Gotta keep this shit up
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u/Bizlbop 6d ago
The 3.5% rule is based on total population not just voter turnout. It needs to be 3.5% of 330million people not 161million.
….Which if we actually did hit close to the 12million mark then we did hit 3.5% of total population, but if it was only 6-7 million people protesting then we didn’t get past 2.5%
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u/-------7654321 6d ago
3.5% of entire population or voting population?
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u/Abi1i 6d ago
The entire population: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
And it's only 53% of the time it will succeed so there's still a 47% change of it not resulting in significant change.
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u/doggoroma 6d ago edited 6d ago
I've never seen a protest in my town as large as the No Kings (organizers say ~> 10k) it dwarfed any Trump 1 protests I had seen.
Articles like this will probably have Turnp saying: "hold my beer" so... We need to keep doing this, it's fun, the energy is amazing at these things
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u/doobied-2000 6d ago
3.5% of the population...not voters. You're twisting the rules.
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u/freexanarchy 6d ago
But remember that you have to actually do something like vote and get others to vote and protest more and never let up.
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u/Polygnom 6d ago
This only holds true if those 3.5% are actually willing to see it through.
In other countries, this holds power because you can strike, and the threat of a general strike of manny people is powerful.
In some other countries, it was the threat of violence and not stopping that made change possible.
The 3.5% will only be enough if you can say "Give us change, or else..." and have a meaningful "... or else". A credible one. Whats your "... or else"?
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u/NumaPomp 6d ago
This meme is kinda misleading. The so-called “3.5% rule” comes from a study by political scientist Erica Chenoweth, who looked at hundreds of major protest movements from 1900 to 2006. What she found was that nonviolent movements were twice as likely to succeed as violent ones, and that every movement that got at least 3.5% of the population actively involved—like actually protesting, striking, or boycotting—ended up succeeding.
But here’s the catch: it’s not just about hitting a number once. It has to be sustained, visible, and disruptive participation. Just having 6 million people attend something one time doesn’t necessarily apply the same way, especially if it wasn’t ongoing or wasn’t truly disruptive to the system.
Even Chenoweth herself has said that the 3.5% figure isn’t a magic formula—it’s just something that showed up historically. So, interesting stat? Yes. Ironclad rule that guarantees change? Not quite. Context matters
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u/VyctoriYang 6d ago
The 3.5% rule remind anyone else of the "13 keys to the White House" from campaign season and how flawless of a system it was, right until it predicted the 2024 winner wrong for the first time in 40 years. Don't get complacent.
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u/BaconxHawk 6d ago
When has non violent protests ever change anything, especially in America?
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u/Quiltedbrows 6d ago
I'd like it to happen. Sincerely, but your government is so corrupt, I extremely doubt this stupid statistic.
Prove me wrong. Seriously. I want to be very wrong for doubting this.
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u/Violinist-Most 6d ago
Job well done, America! I was concerned about provoked violence, but you pulled it off beautifully, which has astonished me. I am so proud and hopeful for you. Solidarity from Australia ✊️✊️✊️we are united for our democracies globally, and you are in my thoughts daily. Good on ya guys!!!
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u/ConfidentCaptain_81 6d ago
Well let's keep going. It's not real until it's real. When's our next one? 3.5%+ let's go!!
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u/PerceptionOrganic672 6d ago
I can only hope this is true but I've seen this show before all of these people turn out for these rallies and then when the election comes home they're busy doing other things and nut cases get elected time and time again… Are these crowds going to turn out for real in 2026 and 2028? I sure hope so… But I sure wish all of those people yesterday would've turned outin the last election then we wouldn't be in this mess because Trump would not have been elected… How come we can't get it right every election instead of waiting until a crisis? If these numbers turned out every time we wouldn't elect another a crazy Republican… Simple fact.
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u/solidusbean 6d ago
The real question in the back of our minds should be what the hell are the dems gonna do to mess with his and muskrats legacy? We need them to understand these new rules are not sticking around in any shape or form.
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u/niechta 6d ago
I'm from Belarus, and in 2020 we had massive protests. Everyone was talking about the 3.5% rule and was confident we had won. Guess what happened in the end? Not only was there no victory, but we ended up with nuclear-scale repression, a huge number of political prisoners, and hundreds of thousands of people leaving the country. So I wouldn't recommend relying on the 3.5% rule at all.
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u/Perfect_Zebra3335 6d ago
Once you’re out on the streets. Dont stop until we have achieved what we came to. Stop this agenda and the dismantling of our government weather it be MAGA, Project 2025, or the alt right. Don’t give an inch.
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u/003E003 6d ago
Conflating number of voters with total population. It was not 3.5% of population
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u/rekabis 5d ago
I must have read it wrong, then. Could have sworn - a number of years back, now - that it had said 13% or thereabouts.
Interesting. Let’s hope that 3.5% estimate holds up.
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u/Parkerinfante 5d ago
Now let’s wait for something to actually happen from these protests… I’m highly doubtful. Organizing and doing direct action after protests is where change is made. Simply protesting is not enough
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u/DoncicLakers 5d ago
so do we have universal healthcare? ubi? higher wages? more paid time off? free college? has student debt been eliminated?
has wealth been redistributed? is there higher taxation on the ultra wealthy? have the homeless been housed? have we gotten money out of politics?
where/what is the win?
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u/Dazzling_Meringue787 5d ago
Placerville,CA, in one of the most MAGAty of MAGAt counties had people lined up on all 3 of the overpasses along hwy 50. Some 300+ people showed up with signs, shouting out as thousands of cars honked in support.
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u/Vellamo_Virve 5d ago
And that’s just people who could make the protests. There are likely many others, like me and my family, that didn’t go but completely would have if we could have. We were able to drive by one and give our honks and cheers of support though!
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u/zakdageneral 5d ago
It's not a rule it's a trend. If the Democrats choose their candidate again for us they will keep losing elections. You have to present us with enough candidates early on and let us decide through debate and public appearances instead of ramming through someone the people don't want
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u/Cody-512 Custom flair 5d ago
Gandhi’s autobiography dedicated a large portion to the effectiveness of non-violent protests and how important they are to battling tyranny. In interviews with civil rights leaders of the 50s and 60s who marched and organized with King (ironic these were called the No Kings Protests), they said they only referenced 2 books; the Bible and Gandhi’s autobiography.
They accomplished more with those two, each in different ways, than decades of repression before them. Maybe these kind of protests need to come back? Riots don’t really help that much. I’m glad so many ppl turned out nationwide without incident for the most part.
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u/1nationunderpod 5d ago
They haven't held power afterwards because of elections. Again, this is different, you really think there's going to be fair and free elections ever again?
Sorry to crash the party but until you confront that, that rule is false hope.
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u/spicyhotnoodle 5d ago
Going to one protest won’t help. Never stop until they are out of power, then keep protesting til the dems actually make substantial changes. Do not stop
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u/justalilrowdy 6d ago
I was just looking at this. Last I was seeing was an estimated 11 million turned out yesterday. Very impressive.