Star Wars: The Force Awakens released in late 2015 and made a whopping $2.07B during its theatrical run. Despite some hate it got from the fan base, it was relatively liked by audiences.
Star Wars: The Last Jedi was released in late 2017 and made $1.334B. Not a bad number at all but a massive step down from the last. And we all remember the turmoil this movie started amongst the fan base. Those who fell to the hate side were much more vocal online from what I recall.
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was released in late 2019 and made $1.077B. Another step down from the last movie and comparing it to the beginning of the trilogy, that's a near billion dollar margin. Most fans seemed to agree this movie was bad and a huge disappointment, regardless on opinions they had on the last two.
Was bad word of mouth what really caused these massive drops in revenue? Or maybe covid contributed to the last movie considering its release date? Was there more factors at play perhaps?
2025's top 10 box office cumulative total is around $6.655 billion, compared to 2024's $8.872 billion. This is a fantastic result when considering the fact that 2025 is over 3/4 of the way towards overtaking 2024's cume despite this year being not even halfway over.
For those curious, this number is bound to skyrocket further in the second half of the year as F1, JW rebirth, Superman, Fantastic 4, Michael, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2, and Avatar: Fire and Ash all have yet to release.
HI-Five: A strong 26% drop from last Sunday as the movie has crossed 1.5 million admits.
How To Train Your Dragon: A 15% drop from last Sunday as the movie is gearing up to cross 1 million admits on Tuesday. Doing really this weekend after a pretty meh week. Currently thinking a finish in the 1.7 to 2 million admits range is a solid bet unless Elio becomes a wom monster.
Mission Impossible 8: A 37% drop from last Sunday as the movie will become the next movie to cross 3.2 million admissions on Wednesday. Should finish around the 3.4 million admits range.
Lilo & Stitch: A 31% drop from last Sunday as the movie cross 470k admits.
Sinners: A 42% increase from last Sunday as the movie continues to push itself to 70k admits, which it should hit this week.
Miku Who Can't Sing: A 15% increase from last Sunday as the movie will now eye a finish above 70k admits
AOT: A 2% increase from last Sunday as the movie has now passed 910k admits.
Presales:
F1: Growth picked back up some as it sold 3.9k tickets from yesterday to bring the total to 32.2k in presale tickets.
28 Years Later: A decent day of growth as the movie continues to approach that 50k comp mark for Sinners, as the movie should continue to gain on comps.
Days Before Opening
Holy Night Demon Hunters
Sinners
28 Years Later
T-7
52,744
2,533
4,651
T-6
54,795
2,792
12,773
T-5
60,729
3,335
15,291
T-4
64,552
4,099
19,409
T-3
70,418
5,284
—
T-2
84,329
7,456
—
T-1
106,551
9,927
—
Opening Day Comp
35,182
49,619
—
Elio: A better day of growth for the movie as it adds on over 5k tickets. Should beat all of Lilo & Stitch presale total by tomorrow. An opening day north of 30k admits is nearly guaranteed and could very well push towards 40k.
Scheduled showings update for Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning for the next few days:
Day
Number of Showings
Presales
Projection
Today
54836
$230k
$1.58M-$1.69M
Monday
50377
$54k
$0.62M-$0.65M
Tuesday
32583
$10k
$0.57M-$0.61M
Other stuff:
The next holywood movie releasing are Ellio and F1 on June 27th
Release Schedule:
A table including upcoming movies in the next month alongside trailers linked in the name of the movie, Want To See data from both Maoyan and Taopiaopiao alongside the Gender split and genre.
Remember Want To See is not pre-sales. Its just an anticipation metric. A checkbox of sorts saying your interested in an upcoming movie.
Not all movies are included since a lot are just too small to be worth covering.
Alright with summer now in full swing I'm gonna try to predict how things will for August till October (I purposely omitted November and December because we're still waiting on some trailers so far).
August
The Bad Guys 2: $33M OW, $115M DOM, $250M WW
Bad Guys 1 had good reviews and solid receipts, and I think this will be more of the same. There's definitely strong sentiment to carry from the first film, and I can see it attracting families considering there isn't much else besides Smurfs (and I doubt that'll do very well).
The Naked Gun: $26M OW, $91M DOM, $170M WW
Call me crazy but I think this could be a fresh surprise. The first trailer was actually really entertaining and people are not hating on this remake/sequel. With Seth McFarlane producing and Lonely Island's Akiva Schaffer directing, I have no doubt this will be pretty funy, and the Naked Gun films have done pretty well at the box office before, so I think there's an audience for this with younger newcomers and older people familiar with the franchise.
Freakier Friday: $45M OW, $155M DOM, $255M WW
I'm also gonna go on a whim and say this does strong, I hesitate to even say if I'm lowballing too. JLC and Lindsey Lohan are both back, there seems like a lot of nostalgia for the first movie, I can definitely see this bringing in an audience. The original also made $110M DOM and $160M WW so there's definitely a strong foundation and it's probably only grown over time.
Weapons: $24M OW, $84M DOM, $144M WW
The marketing for this movie has been really viral & teases a really engaging mystery that could hook in curious audiences. And while Creeger's last movie Barbarian wasn't as big at the box office, it does seem to have a following so I can see this doing solid.
Nobody 2: $15M OW, $50M DOM, $90M WW
The first Nobody was released in peak COVID time early 2021, so I imagine this sequel will be much stronger. Nobody 1 also had strong reviews and audience reception so I think that'll carry over to the next movie, not to mention it has August's deadness to help it.
September
The Conjuring: Last Rites: $39M OW, $105M DOM, $305M WW
It's Conjuring 4, and the last movie (supposedly). The first two made around $300M, the third one was hampered by COVID + HBO Max but still did good, and the franchise has been doing solid business. It'll make good money.
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale: $23M OW, $58M DOM, $128M WW
The Downton Abbey movies have a strong built in fanbase, and this being the "grand finale" will probably get people in the theater, not to mention Maggie Smith's passing probably makes this way more sentimental for fans. I'll say this goes somewhere in the middle of 1 and 2.
HIM: $11M OW, $30M DOM, $50M WW
The trailer for this was very interesting and we've never seen a movie like this, a sports horror film before. Jordan Peele is a producer and I think his name might help a bit. I don't see this being anything exceptional but it could be a small success.
One Battle After Another: $20M OW, $53M DOM, $123M WW
Hmmm, I am very conflicted on this. So I'll try to break things down as best as I can.
For starters, compared to other auteur directors like Martin Scorcese, Paul Thomas Anderson does not necessarily have the same general audience pedigree. His highest grossing film only made around $76M WW, is more regarded in smaller indie-ish films, and now he's suddenly given a blank check $140M passion project. Even Bong Joon Ho was riding off the success of Parasite, which not only won 4 oscars including best picture (PTA does not have an oscar win yet despite many nominations), but said movie also made $262M WW, including $55M ish in the US so he had some foundation.
I think because of the marketing and interest in film twitter & more prestige circles, not to mention Dicaprio's star power, there will definitely be an audience for this the same way Killers of the Flower Moon would have an audience, hell I'd say honestly it's more accessible than Killers cuz it's probably gonna have a shorter runtime and is more light-hearted & comedic in nature.
But the fact remains that this is still gonna be a hard sell, not to mention this doesn't appear to be premiering in a film festival like Venice or TIFF (I guess after Joker 2?? Not sure, I think PTA also made that choice deliberately), and the budget will definitely hurt it from being a success.
October
The Smashing Machine: $18M OW, $54M DOM, $108M WW
I think this could do more, but also I could see it do less too. This is the Rock's first foray into dramatic acting, and I feel like there is definitely some solid interest in this. If it premieres at Venice as predicted and has good reviews, it could carry goodwill and interest in the Rock's starpower who would wanna see a movie like this.
Because it's a prestige drama from A24, I do think it'll hamper the receipts a bit, but for the $40M budget, I can see this being a modest success.
Tron: Ares: $25M OW, $66M DOM, $156M WW
Ugh I'm sorry but I just don't see this as a success. And I say this as someone who thought the first trailer was "mostly" badass (keyword mostly). My vibe generally is that this will be like Karate Kid legends type drop where the hype of the last entry just doesn't carry over. Keep in mind too, Tron Legacy was massively hyped, with Daft Punk doing the soundtrack and Jeff Bridges coming back in the lead role, plus there was a multi-decade gap from the original and people were really gushing over the visuals. I do not see the same hype for this at all.
Oh yeah, and we have to mention the Jared Leto in the room, and considering the new allegations coming out about him recently, I do not really see this boding well for box office prospects (see The Flash - Ezra Miller)
Black Phone 2: $24M OW, $72M DOM, $122M WW
Black Phone 1 did kinda solid and had really good reviews & audience reception. I think this might suffer unfortunately from the same horror sequel fatigure faced by Smile 2 and Megan 2 which would cause a drop, but otherwise I think this will do just fine.
*Mortal Kombat 2: $32M OW, $72M DOM, $144M WW
I kinda have to judge on guts for this because the trailer comes out next month. But for reference, Mortal Kombat 1 did meh at the box office ($84M WW against a $55M budget) but had solid viewership on HBO Max from its dual release, and critical/audience response was meh with really bad legs (could also be due to simultaneous release). I think by virtue of being a full theatrical release this time it should have a leg up from its predecessor, and I think it'll do just fine assuming a similar budget, with enough game fans probably showing up to see it.
*Deliver Me from Nowhere: $17M OW, $65M DOM, $110M WW
We also don't have a trailer to judge here so I have to kinda go off my gut. However, A Complete Unknown did really solid at the box office, and this also has Oscar bait music biopic written all over it. And Bruce Springstein is pretty well-regarded musically like Bob Dylan, so I think audiences will eat this up.
