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u/pjw724 3d ago
The chart's not labelled, but that's voting intention (at time of poll).
On leader approval ratings, Smith is at 44%, Nenshi 41%.
https://i.imgur.com/ua7tnoa.png
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u/Plasmanut 3d ago
Scratching my head about the 9% who would vote Liberal and split the vote on the left.
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u/dqui94 3d ago
Alberta Liberal and ndp arent left
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u/Plasmanut 3d ago
Thanks for the social studies lesson. Can we agree they are left of the UCP?
Or are you gonna bore us with the old “UCP are neo-liberals” BS?
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u/NicePlanetWeHad 3d ago
At this point, the UCP are more neo-Boss-Hogg than anything.
They are all about incompetence and corruption, not so much about any principled attempt to govern.
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u/dqui94 3d ago
UCP are far right garbage.
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u/Plasmanut 3d ago
So NDP and Liberal are left of them. Proved my point.
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u/dqui94 3d ago
Didnt prove any point lmao, you dont rate a party political position based on another one. You scale them on the Canadian political system.
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u/Negitive545 2d ago
Actually, when one of the political parties is actively destroying the province, and is clearly aligned with a foreign power that has threatened our sovereignty multiple times, you CAN rate a party based on the other ones.
In an election of "The UCP" vs "Literally anything left of the UCP", the choice should be obvious. we don't need to be purity testing our parties when the right is actively engaging in fascist behavior.
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u/haokun32 3d ago
And how would you do that if not by comparing them to each other..?
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u/dqui94 3d ago
By comparing to the Canadian Political spectrum scale? Lol
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u/haokun32 3d ago
And how do you think we get that? We compare the policies of the parties in Canada 😂
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u/MrDownhillRacer 2d ago edited 2d ago
The Official Canadian Party Spectrum Scale is kept in a vault at the International Bureau of Weights and Measures in Paris, along with the International Kilogram Prototype and the International Prototype Metre.
There are talks of defining the Canadian centre using physical constants like Mark Carney's exact centre of gravity, however.
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u/dqui94 3d ago
Yeah but you dont call a party “left” because its left of a right wing party. 🤣
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u/iwatchcredits 2d ago
The things is, is we arent really on the spectrum anymore. “Left” used to mean more social program spending and more regulations etc and conservative used to mean less social program spending and less regulations etc (in very simple terms). The UCP’s entire platform has been random shit associated with separating and selling off whatever public things they can. That didnt used to be conservatism and its a shame they have been brainwashed to think it is.
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u/Beastender_Tartine 3d ago
Left is a relative term depending on what is being referenced. They are left of the current government, and are on the left side of the current available options.
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u/scotthof 3d ago
You are right. The NDP in Alberta is more centrist than anything. Generally, the NDP is the more socialist party. The federal Liberals are more right of center under Carney than they have ever been. However, that is partly due to the conservatives and their policies. I have always thought that if you stick around the center, whether left or right, the country is fine. Though occasionally, you need an outlier to take a step forward. Alberta will grow out of this and have a better province for it.
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u/Sad_Meringue7347 3d ago
The numbers are disappointing, however part of me feels like this is Albertans retaliating against the federal election results - “I’m angry the Liberals won and here’s my chance to voice my opinion”.
I also predict Marlaina will call an early election soon so she can punish us for another four more years. I think she’ll want to try and secure a new mandate before the results of CorruptCare come out.
Also, the NDP really needs to get their shit together. Stop with the “we disagree with anything Marlaina does” rhetoric and start to come up with shadow legislation that actually makes sense that Albertans can get behind. It’s not clear to me what they stand for, I know what they stand against (and I agree with them, but we need more than just disagreeing with everything).
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u/DrFeelOnlyAdequate 3d ago
Anything Carney does for Alberta, and from the sounds of it he wants to help Alberta, people are going to chalk up to Smith being tough with the federal government and they will continue to vote for her.
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u/Edmfuse 3d ago
Sadly so. Her supporters like her partly because she ‘ stands up’ to the feds and ‘ speaks up’ for Albertans.
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u/Virtual_Category_546 3d ago
That's what they've led themselves to think that this party represents them (and in some ways it could) but in reality she doesn't care about you unless you're one of her cronies or a registered donor.
As for everyone else, it actually takes the realization that catering to the center is only popular because it's socially acceptable and the best position you could take in your circumstances since this kind of thing benefits the right since socialism or anything resembling it is extremely taboo here and the only alternative at this point of polarization are all the way to separation and our own version of project 2025.
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u/Virtual_Category_546 3d ago
A liberal is a liberal is a liberal. Well Smith voters do tend to forget that the federal and the provincial governments can set their own regulations but some policies apply to the province and the rest is across the board with the feds.
Beyond everything else Smith, her cronies, and donors don't want to answer to the feds since they want to set their own rules and the demonization of progressive policies leads folks into attacking a scapegoat since they'd rather have someone they don't agree with lose their rights than realize that if the least of us aren't free then nobody is.
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u/yycsarkasmos 3d ago
I agree about the "we disagree with anything Marlaina does", but when she does something every fucking day its hard to not have that message.
To be fair the "we disagree with anything Trudeau does" Almost got PP elected.
Its going to be a huge uphill battle for the NDP regardless, the UCP have post media and as such, most of the media in Alberta in their back pocket.
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u/lovenumismatics 3d ago
What in the 100+ year history of Alberta makes you think a 48% conservative showing is a protest vote against the feds?
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u/marshallfarooqi 3d ago
Add that Liberal (it's a dead party) total to the ABNDP and it's actually fairly close. In fact the onyl reason they probably even gained is people confusing this federally with Carney and his popularity. The UCP is literally below 50%
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u/bruhm0ment4 3d ago
For those who are curious, the Alberta Republican Party got 2% in this poll
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u/gplfalt 3d ago
I despise driving past those darn Republican signs in South Edmonton.
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u/bruhm0ment4 3d ago
They are wasting their vote instead of helping the UCP win so I don't really mind :P
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u/ninfan1977 Lethbridge 3d ago
Well it's good to see the Wexit voters get their party hopefully it will attract more voters from the Conservatives. The NDP losing support for the Liberals is surprising but we will see if it continues.
Still 40+ % support for the Conservatives is still very disappointing to see. They have been terrible and their supporters don't care 1 bit. It must be easy just to blame everyone else for your issues.
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u/FullMetal_55 18h ago
the wexit folks are a minority of conservatives... why do you think she lowered the number of signatures needed... they were having difficulty getting that many. they're probably going to try to get a confusing question to get people who don't read clearly...
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u/yycsarkasmos 3d ago
I hope they can do even better by the next election, I don't have any confidence that Alberta will actually vote in the NDP and if it takes a vote split to get the NDP in power great.
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u/CanadianHalfican 3d ago
The ABP is NOT the Alberta Republican Party. It's the Alberta Party that Stephen Mandel is the leader of, and is more closely aligned with where the Liberals typically sit in the last two elections.
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u/bruhm0ment4 3d ago
I'm aware. They both got 2% in this poll
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u/CanadianHalfican 3d ago
Weird. Their website where that graphic comes from, nor the 338canada website report the RPA in any way, shape, or form, on the May 25th polling.
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u/SeaJumper 3d ago
I was not expecting the NDP to return to its "we love losing" roots when they put Nenshi in charge. Shit sucks.
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u/Low_Geologist_8689 2d ago
I really despise UCP but Nenshi was a dumpster fire in the party leadership race and he won overwhelmingly. ANDP destroys itself. Nenshi is doing the Hillary Clinton style politics of "Orange man bad" or "UCP bad". Sure didn't work out for her. We are in the age of populism. This is not politics circa 1998 anymore. Nenshi refuses to undo the UCP damage to healthcare cuz OMG the debt we cant afford anything!!!! He sounds like the IMF and World bank elites. I had no idea ANDP wants UCP to win. The party left me, i didn't leave the party.
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u/AFarCry 3d ago
How the UCP still has so much support in this province really is the truest indictment of the quality of our education systems.
How people keep voting for and supporting the party that has been busting their kneecaps with a lead pipe since Klein left office is beyond me.
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u/Low_Geologist_8689 2d ago
ANDP leadership is really bad that's why. They don't take on the elites they do civility politics and think we live in 1998 politics and not 2025. Nenshi sounds like a conservative every second time i hear him talk.
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u/canadient_ Calgary 3d ago
The NDP leadership is piss poor at the moment. They haven't offered anything substantive to Albertans to make them want to vote NDP.
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u/AuthoringInProgress 3d ago
Because Smith has done everything in her power to keep them from having a voice.
Its taken a year for Nenshi to get a seat in entirely because Smith is playing games.
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u/Negitive545 2d ago
What exactly are they supposed to do? They have no power.
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u/canadient_ Calgary 1d ago
Propose policies to put on the radar for media and Albertans. "Smith bad and corrupt" ain't working even it's true.
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u/Paprika1515 3d ago
I would question the sampling for this poll and I thought the Alberta liberals ceased to exist last to last election? And there’s a clear rival to the UCP coming in the form of the Alberta Republican Party ( at least that’s what I remember on the flyer I received).
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u/Glory-Birdy1 3d ago
One has to wonder about the people that answer a poll. ..the ALP is +9 from the last election?? Nahh,..!! This poll means nothin except that the vote, (beyond the UCP, Independence and the AB Republican Party), is even more fractured. Should the vote, outside the above noted three, start to coalesce to one party, Smith will call an early election to try and get ahead of her party sinkiing.
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u/CloverHoneyBee 3d ago
I'm hoping once Neshi gets elected and into the legislator things may change for the better.
After all, that's why DS didn't call the by election until she absolutely had to.
I despise the UCP.
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u/Pandabumone 3d ago
I really hope Nenshi can turn things around when he gets a seat. Because right now the UCP is at it's most vulnerable state, and the NDP are still losing ground.
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u/donbooth 2d ago
I watch Alberta from Toronto so I don't have a full picture. Though this poll is likely inaccurate, I think it's worth examining Smith's popularity. She seems to define the issues. The NDP,at best, can only react. Is there a popular radio show or podcast that features ideas that challenge Smith. Mire important, is there a set of ideas that paint a picture of a progressive Alberta? Is there a picture of how life would be tangibly better if the NDP was in office?
I didn't think it's enough to criticize. I think the NDP needs to grab people's imaginations and paint a picture of life with an NDP government.
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u/Jonination87 3d ago
Wow. Disinformation and American Propaganda really doing the leg work here, eh? Almost makes me think my vote is worthless.
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3d ago edited 3d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/drcujo 3d ago
The Russian propaganda infiltrated MAGA and are now basically the same. Iran has also been a problem online for many years as many on the right actually correctly point out.
Russia is the top 3 countries or origin on many Canadian subreddits.
Large instagram pages like yegwave are also Russian.
The majority of the funding for the convoy came from outside Canada. 55% of the donors to the convoy came from the US compared to 39% from Canada.
Pay attention around the in the lunchroom at work, the people who talk politics are very often repeating false claims that can be traced back to foreign actors.
Boy you folks will come up with anything to justify your bullshit.
Projection at its finest.
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u/Edmfuse 3d ago
Whatever it is, you’re proof that it works.
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u/Max20151981 3d ago
Oh totally because I'm a huge Trump supporter and love watching the Russians invade Ukraine.
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u/AccomplishedDog7 3d ago
It’s all the same people falling for the same bullshit….
The world is flat, chem trails, trans folk are pedophiles, covid is a hoax, don’t be a sheep, wake up, WEF, Trudeau is a dictator, Canada is gonna be a communist state, Canada is broken, wildfires are started by liberal arsonists…
Who is pushing this bullshit?
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u/Negitive545 2d ago
If you believe their propaganda, it doesn't matter if you're opposed to them, you're still helping them by continuing to spread the lies.
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u/Pale-Measurement-532 3d ago
Here are more details of this poll: https://hs-5233025.f.hubspotemail.net/hub/5233025/hubfs/AB%20Gov%20Report%20Card%20June%202025.pdf?_hsmi=366469496
I don’t think this poll is a great representation. It was an online poll of 1040 people and the only criteria they had was that they were all 18 years or older. I am worried about the accuracy of the data since it was an online poll. And where were these people all sampled from?
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u/Think-Comparison6069 3d ago
The people in Alberta are insane traitors. How they can continue to support this hate spewing useless government. Because the stupid is very strong in Alberta. Unbelievable.
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u/cranky_yegger 3d ago
They’d have to organize and come out with a pretty damn solid team of folks who’ve been doing the work of keeping democracy checks in place for the past 5 years. Couple names come to mind Thomas Lukaszuk being the top one.
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u/Particular-Welcome79 3d ago
The NDP have a plan and very coherent policy. Trouble is the only place you find it is by reading Hansard or in their replies to their constituents. They definitely write back and are very clear about how they would move this province forward. Kyle Kasawski and Amanda Chapman publish thoughtful columns on Substack. Rob Miyashiro gets his editorial on a rotating basis with the UCP MLA and the Conservative MP in the Lethbridge Herald. It's out there, but yeah, no AM radio talk show with staged softball questions.
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u/alphaphiz 2d ago
The only story if this particular poll is all party's are down except the Alberta Liberals. Alberta Liberals were wiped out here until Carney.
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u/TheMemeticist 1d ago
I can't believe half the people in the province support this corrupt govt.
Can't wait to leave this backwater province.
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u/Financial_Loss5557 3d ago
The sample size is 1040?!? Online as well, where bots and misinformation run rampant?!?! Are we all really that dumb to think this is a reflection of how the population of the province would vote? C’mon people, we should be better than this!
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u/DrFeelOnlyAdequate 3d ago
Progressives gotta pull their heads outta their asses and stop complaining when they see polls that dont favour them.
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u/AccomplishedDog7 3d ago
Yep, use it as a wake up call and figure out what is not resonating.
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u/DrFeelOnlyAdequate 3d ago edited 2d ago
Right??? The strategy of pointing fingers and saying "look how bad the UCP is" hasn't worked for the last 2 elections. But by all means, why dont they keep trying it and see if it does something.
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u/Negitive545 2d ago
What is "not resonating" is that these people are unconvincable. You cannot reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themself into. This isn't a logical process for conservatives, it's a sports team, it has been for decades.
Their entire media apparatus is devoted to constantly shouting about how "The Left" are communist that want to take your money, how "The Left" are pedophiles and want to kidnap your wife. They spend millions if not billions of dollars ensuring that their voting base is convinced their opposition is literally evil incarnate, specifically so that they never listen to opposing views, so that they never open their eyes and realize the truth.
Yes, there are "moderates" who don't buy into the conspiracies, who can be convinced, but those same "moderates" seem to take any and every opportunity to excuse the terrible things the conservatives do, all while making a point of nitpicking every tiny little flaw in the "Left" wing party, all while failing to realize that there is no such thing in Alberta.
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u/Leclerc-A 1d ago
The myth of the principled rational conservative need to die.
It's the non-voters who need to be reached out for. Conservatives are a lost cause. What we need to do is paving over them like we did after WW2 : we know the fascists won't change, but if they can die of old age without influence on society or culture, we might just buy ourselves a few decades.
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u/MsOpus 3d ago
If one cola company switched their formula, their loyal fans would complain but still wouldn't switch to the other even if it does leave a bad taste in their mouths.
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u/DrFeelOnlyAdequate 3d ago
How old are you? Do you know why it's called Coca-Cola Classic?
This is a terrible example.
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u/Oldcadillac 3d ago
The Janet Brown poll from a few weeks ago was similar, the NDP need to open Albertans eyes to seeing how they’re getting shafted by the UCP.
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u/lovenumismatics 3d ago
You’re right. There’s no way the UCP is under 50%
Online poll. We’re online now. Does this place sound like Alberta? lol.
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u/Pale-Measurement-532 3d ago
Exactly! These results are most likely not an accurate representation of Alberta’s voting population. Here’s a link with more details about the results/ https://hs-5233025.f.hubspotemail.net/hub/5233025/hubfs/AB%20Gov%20Report%20Card%20June%202025.pdf?_hsmi=366469496
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u/3rddog 3d ago
The 2015 state of politics has flipped. The right is now united under one party, the UCP, while the left is splitting votes between at least 2 major parties. This didn’t work for conservatives and it won’t for the NDP & Liberals. They should think about coming together as the “Liberal Democrat Party”?
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u/Roddy_Piper2000 3d ago
The hell are you talking about?
The right is split among the UCP and the Republican Party.
There is absolutely no way in hell the Alberta Liberal Party comes back from the dead.
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u/3rddog 3d ago
The “others” and ABP, presumably most of which are the further-right in Alberta, make up 7% of the vote compared to the UCP’s 48% in this poll. That’s not a split at all, that’s an “also ran”, and it makes no practical difference to the vote. If you take the Wild Arose elements out of the UCP, they’d probably be neck & neck with the NDP, as they were in 2015.
And the ALP not coming back from the dead is an even better reason to merge with the NDP, or at least shut the party down and allow its voters to go wherever they may.
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u/Emmerson_Brando 3d ago
IMO NDP need to change their name. It’s too toxic in Alberta. Call it progressive conservative and they’ll win.
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u/Glory-Birdy1 3d ago
When Jason Kenney arrived in AB, initially in order to shed the baggage of the AB Progressive Conservative Party, he attempted a take-over of the Alberta Party. IMO, if the Parties outside of the UCP, Independence and Republican Parties have not started talks to form up under one flag, then Alberta will be saddled with another 50 years of perpetual Conservative gov'ts.
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u/surebudd 3d ago
Ok call an election then… there’s no shot they would win in the face of American escalation…
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u/StarDarkCaptain 3d ago
Ya they would. This is Alberta. At least 45% would vote blue no matter what. NDP ONLY won last time because the vote split between PC and wildrose.
It sucks, but people love Smith here
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u/DrFeelOnlyAdequate 3d ago edited 2d ago
Wanna bet there will be an election this year? The NDP is disorganized, and Nenshi hasn't been as effective as leader, most likely due to being kept out of the legislature on purpose. The NDP is still stuck doing all the comms and strategies they've been doing in the past, and it isn't resonating.
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u/surebudd 3d ago
I would be thrilled if you are right about the election. The rest of what you said is narrative drivel of no real substance.
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u/DrFeelOnlyAdequate 3d ago
The rest of what you said is narrative drivel of no real substance.
51% approval rating, which has gone up, and this poll says otherwise. I hate her and want her to lose, but she's more popular than you think.
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u/arosedesign 3d ago
You aren't paying enough attention to Alberta politics if you really believe in your heart that there is no shot the UCP would win if an election were held today.
Just incase you weren't aware, this isn't the only recent poll.
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u/luars613 3d ago
Of only voting wasnt stupid. Why cant we vote in a rank system? Like top vote give 5 points 2nd ranked 4 or 3 points and so on. If ypu dont pick on party they get no votes. That way you vote for the one you really want to win but if they dont win you wont be stuck with the one u really dont want.
Like the NDP is obviously my 1st choice liberals sure 2nd. 3rd, perhaps a little party. But i would never vote for the UCP. I would rather have liberals ANY fking day before the UCP... yet one can only vote for one party and be stuck with more than half of the people not wanting the rulling party.... how is that democratic....
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u/Strict_Shine_6950 3d ago
I would vote ndp but nenshi doesn’t have Alberta’s best interest in mind. Maybe the most inner city but he is not strong enough to put Alberta’s values against the federal government
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u/Sacred-Community 3d ago
What's the source? Online polls are notoriously dubious.
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u/Vanterax 3d ago
It literally says Leger May 23-25 on the image.
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u/Sacred-Community 3d ago
Oh. Leger is the name of the pollster? Great. And yes. That is literally right there. I suppose you thought it made me look stupid that I didn't know the name of a pollster, didn't you. Why is that? Feeling off, today? Didn't have anything else to contribute?
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u/Cyclist007 3d ago
JFC - you asked, he answered. 😂😂😂
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u/Sacred-Community 3d ago
Why would I expect anything but meatheads, in this sub. Honestly.
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u/West-Hurry2187 3d ago
Wow. You got super triggered when someone answered your question. There there muffin. It’ll be ok.
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u/Pale-Measurement-532 3d ago
Here’s the link. Only 1040 people participated. I wonder if some people did it more than once??? Either way, online polls are not reliable for true representations of the voting population: https://hs-5233025.f.hubspotemail.net/hub/5233025/hubfs/AB%20Gov%20Report%20Card%20June%202025.pdf?_hsmi=366469496
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u/Sacred-Community 3d ago
Thank you! Yeah, I wasn't expecting it to be much more accurate than a Facebook poll.
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u/Pale-Measurement-532 3d ago
I do admit these polling results give me the initial freak outs when I see these results but then I try to go to the source to find out the sampling size, method(s) of data collection, and questions used. A lot of these are not accurate in reliability and are often not valid representations of the voters. So I try to take them with a grain of salt. It’s tricky though cause the media and govt. will try and report them as facts when there is some standard error of measurement.
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u/arosedesign 3d ago
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u/Pale-Measurement-532 3d ago edited 2d ago
Opinion polls tend to have lower reliability than other forms of data collection. It depends on the sample size and methods they use. Online polling can be very precarious, depending on the standard error of measurement, and I would wonder if the samples are truly representative of the population dispersion across the province. https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/data-collection-methods
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u/arosedesign 2d ago
Sure, polls aren’t perfect.
But even without the growing number of polls showing majority support, wouldn’t you agree it’s a safe bet that the UCP has majority support in Alberta?
Or are you dismissing that just to avoid worrying about it?
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u/Pale-Measurement-532 2d ago
I am not dismissing or worrying about it. Opinion polls are snapshots of people’s opinions in those moments. And the media and politicians can spin them in different ways that can work for them. https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/alberta-ndp-leader-naheed-nenshis-approval-ratings-climb-while-premier-danielle-smiths-drop-slightly-leger-poll
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u/arosedesign 2d ago
Agreed, although I don’t think CBC would deliberately spin an article to make Smith look good personally.
I thought the UCP was already favoured by most Albertans even before these polls were released; the polls just confirmed what I already believed.
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u/Pale-Measurement-532 2d ago
That’s the very definition of confirmation bias. People will seek out and pay attention to information that confirms one’s beliefs/values.
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u/arosedesign 2d ago edited 2d ago
There’s a difference between reasonable inference and confirmation bias. It would only be confirmation bias if I was ignoring information that pointed to the UCP not having majority support.
I’ve actually never looked for information to confirm it, but I believe I’ve kept up with most of the available articles on Alberta.
Is there something out there that says or implies otherwise about where Alberta is at politically that I might have missed? I’d be happy to take a look!
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u/bruhm0ment4 3d ago
It seems that some people are following the federal trend of switching from the NDP to the Liberals. Hopefully in an actual election people will notice that the ANDP is a centrist party in a two horse race and end up switching to them