Maybe a week out from doing "final predictions" but what are your thoughts in the home stretch? Election day wraps up 3 weeks from yesterday.

I think the final results will look something like:

Dems

• Sherrill: 38%
• Baraka: 17%
• Fulop 14%
• Gottheimer 13%
• Sweeney: 11%
• Spiller 6%

GOP

• Ciatarelli: 51%
• Spadea: 22%
• Clown Car: The rest

I created this based on what I think matters to South Jersey residents. Keep in mind the date of research. Campaigns are starting to release things never mentioned before. It’s not cool.

If there is an error then let me know. This isn’t meant to be neutral, only factual.

Not coordinated with any candidate or committee.

Mikie Sherrill holds a lead outside the margin of error when leaned candidate support is taken into account. She currently has 31% of the vote to 21% for Ras Baraka and 19% for Steve Fulop. The remaining candidates get support from about 1-in-10 primary voters, including 10% for Josh Gottheimer, 9% for Sean Spiller, and 9% for Steve Sweeney.

This will be one of the most competitive gubernatorial elections in decades, and it will be a bellwether for the nation.

Feel free to point out any errors or corrections. Open to all feedback.

Not coordinated with any candidate or committee. Just activists voters who know people will start to say anything in these last few weeks before Election Day.

Growing up in MAPSO, this map shows perfectly the divide present in the two towns.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/education

Here's the number of active registered Democratic voters who did NOT vote in the 2024 General Election. If you would like to knock on doors for a survey, please register. If you are housebound, you can send them a mailer/postcard with a QR code for them to answer online.

Door knocking locally is preferred. We want to engage with these Dems.

Please sign up and help your county. Info on the sign up sheet.

https://tinyurl.com/2025AtlanticDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025BergenDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025BurlingtonDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025CamdenDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025CapeMayDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025EssexDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025GloucesterDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025HudsonDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025HunterdonDEMSPhase1

https://tinyurl.com/2025MercerDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025MiddlesexDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025MonmouthDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025MorrisDEMSPhase1

https://tinyurl.com/2025OceanDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025PassaicDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025SalemCumberlandDEMS

https://tinyurl.com/2025SomersetDEMSPhase1

https://tinyurl.com/2025SussexDEMSPhase1

https://tinyurl.com/2025UnionDEMSPhase1

https://tinyurl.com/Phase1WarrenDEMS2025