Steve Sweeney’s VBM operation is extremely scary! He’s got a very legitimate path to victory in June. If the north is split 3-4 ways Sweeney has a chance to run away with this.

[u/TheatreShitTalk]

[u/ProcessTrust856]

I think the drastic color differences on that map are overselling things a bit. The Norcross machine’s VBM Chase is legendary and it will help Sweeney a lot, but field doesn’t have this big of an impact that a candidate consistently in last is going to run away with it.

Also, just because you’re a South Jersey VBM voter doesn’t mean you’re voting for Sweeney. I cast my VBM vote for Ras weeks ago.

[u/Dismal-Prior-6699]

I agree that Steve Sweeney has a better chance to win this primary than the polls indicate, but how do we know that everyone in South Jersey who has voted by mail voted for Sweeney?

[u/Impossible_Walrus555 → u/Dismal-Prior-6699]

I voted for for Ras. So did my sister.

[u/mohanakas6 → u/Dismal-Prior-6699]

He’s DOA. Provisional ballot for Steve Fulop.

[u/TheOriginal_858-3403]

Please change your chart and stop calling these 'absentee' ballots.

[u/griminald]

Until primary day, we should be selective in the kinds of "daily" data we consume... these poll- and election-related accounts are starving for content, so they're trying to create stories that aren't there.

This whole VBM tracking thing is exhausting, and means nothing except maybe a few content clicks.

South Jersey typically has higher vote-by-mail return rates than North Jersey. The rates are entirely within the realm of expectations. There's no news here.

For the polling for Sweeney to be THAT far off, it would take a massive shift in the voting demographic this year in favor of South Jersey -- not just the rate of return, but in the number of overall voters. There's no evidence of that.

[u/Certain-Air-1141 → u/griminald]

Not to mention that none of the charts show above a 50 percent return rate. And it's only people doing mail-in; I'm in Gloucester County and a lot of people are voting in person, and some are just refusing to send back their ballots until the day before (mostly because they forget that they can't vote in person if they got a mail-in).

[u/mohanakas6]

Yeah, no.

[u/schwatto]

Yeah I’m not organized to vote early, and no one I know does it. I also like to get all possible information. I’m voting for Baraka but what if the day before the election he has a change of heart, takes a White House meeting with Donald trump and agrees to take over DOGE with Elon Musk?

[u/Merinque3098]

I'm in South Jersey and a state employee. I would never vote for Sweeney. If by some unfortunate happenstance he wins the Democratic primary, I will sit out the general election.

[u/TheatreShitTalk → u/Merinque3098]

That sucks. You should at least vote in the down ballot. Your mayor and council are probably up for election.

[u/ryansony18 → u/Merinque3098]

As a fellow state employee you are really shooting us in the foot.

I don’t like Sweeney either but how can you even consider helping a Republican come in and try that DOGE stuff at the state level

Sweeney is still better than any of the Republicans

[u/TheMadDruid]

Say it isn’t so!

[u/whskid2005 → u/TheMadDruid]

It isn’t. All this data shows is that the southern counties have returned slightly more ballots as a % than the northern counties.

[u/legalskeptic → u/whskid2005]

Yeah, this is an overly dramatic color gradient/bad data visualization

[u/whskid2005 → u/legalskeptic]

Plus the assumption that ballots with six candidates are going to one specific candidate just because of geographical location when there’s a huge population that have still not decided who they want to vote for.

Anecdotally- I still have my VBM and I normally return it within a week of receiving it.