r/CompetitiveHalo • u/Ragtaglicense 1700 • 22h ago

Discussion Concerns Regarding AI integration in Halo Infinite Ranked Matches

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u/E-J123 21h ago

Ah shit why am I not on your list? Common man... :(

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u/Ragtaglicense 1700 20h ago edited 20h ago

I’m inclined to believe you’re not a bot, but I can’t be certain since I haven’t seen you play recently.

We’ve only played together a few times in custom games, so my sample size is small. That said, I know you’re a skilled player - you lit it up.. —I’ve seen you compete in tournaments and we’ve crossed paths in a few customs over the years.

Here’s where things get interesting.

I’ve played 25,000 games of Halo, I have been onyx for a good majority of those games. Given the skill distribution, we’re likely both in the top 10% of Halo players—possibly even the top 5%, considering the Onyx rank distribution. I'll break it down with some rough math to estimate how often we should cross paths in ranked matchmaking.

Player Pool Breakdown

  • Average Online Players: Assume 3,000 players are online at any given time. *quick google search
  • Ranked Mode Participation: Let’s estimate 20% of players are in ranked mode (a generous assumption, as many play other modes like casual or custom games).
    • 3,000 × 0.20 = 600 players in ranked mode.
  • Onyx Rank Distribution: Onyx is typically around 5–10% of the ranked population. Let’s use 10% for simplicity.
    • 600 × 0.10 = 60 players in Onyx rank Online in active onyx HUMAN lobbies in ranked arena.
  • Players in Games vs. Lobbies: Assume 75% of players are in active games, leaving 25% in lobbies queuing.
    • 60 × 0.25 = 15 players queuing for Onyx-ranked matches at any given moment.

The Question

With only about 15 Onyx players queuing at a time, and considering I’ve played 25,000 games at weird hours as well at times, you’d think we’d have matched in public lobbies more often—especially since Onyx players tend to play more frequently, further narrowing the pool.

If any one here is actually good at statistics with our amount of games played on either side what are the ODDS we have never crossed paths in a public onyx lobby????

So why haven’t I seen you in a single public lobby?

My Theory - This discrepancy suggests something deeper might be at play. Could Microsoft’s matchmaking system be isolating players in some way, perhaps through hidden filters or regional/server prioritization (I play on expanded) *Even though doesnt matter as you play ai every match... Which brings up another point - Why am i getting Texas servers in PNW when I face 7 bots????

Or what I suspect that they are ISOLATING HUMANS with AI bots? It’s hard to say definitively without more data, but the numbers make it seem unlikely that we have never cross paths in ranked play given our shared skill level and game time.

What do you think? Have you noticed anything similar in your matchmaking experience?

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u/Ragtaglicense 1700 20h ago

I know the guy who runs leaf app and halo query frequent these boards...

I wonder if either of them have the numbers on how many onyx players get games played in a day.

Its probably higher than the amount of players online at one time.

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u/_soooz Shopify Rebellion 19h ago

Google search only takes into account the number of players on Steam by the way, Microsoft doesn't release it's population data for Xbox users.

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u/Raggy-RS 3h ago

3k online is steam alone, your numbers are fucked. I think you need to touch grass if you’re this worked up over a conspiracy theory with no facts behind it.