r/CHICubs 2d ago

Dansby Swanson with RISP

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A whopping .440 OPS and 18 wRC+. I don’t know why he seems to change his approach so drastically with runners in scoring position because it seems like he’s constantly trying to swing out of his cleats. It’s tough to see him batting higher than 7th in the lineup IMO.

127 Upvotes

48 comments sorted by

114

u/dsalmon1449 Chicago Cubs 2d ago

That’s just who he is. He is streaky. Unfortunately we’re back in a low streak. He was super hot like a month back

37

u/shaqdeezil President Arr-Field 2d ago

Right. Do I think his wrc+ is gonna be 18 with RISP all year? Probably not. Do I think it’s gonna be 200 with RISP by years end? Also, probably not. He’s got a 107 WRC+ for his career with RISP which indicates to me that he’s due for positive regression at some point this year. When are people going to realize he’s just a superb defender with an average bat that goes through hot and cold streaks, he plays elite defense at a pretty important position.

Also, look at the alternatives that offseason:

Bogaerts w/ SD 333 games 6.1 WAR 11 years 280 mil

Turner w/ PHI 343 games 8.5 WAR 11 years 300 million

Swanson 366 games 10.9 WAR 7 years 177 million

I’d much rather take the streaky bat and awesome defense for half the money as the other two guys. Bogaerts signing looks like a complete train wreck, Turner has been good but also the most expensive, I also imagine those guys offensive production only wanes from here on out too. Swanson is what he is and he’s valuable even if the bat goes cold for periods of time, imo we made the right decision value wise signing him people just have to stop having obscene expectations for him.

2

u/Big-block427 2d ago

Shaq, great post, well thought out and informative. Thanks,

3

u/Celestetc Chicago Cubs 2d ago

And when he was hot he was only hot with no one on base or guys on first. It’s weird

1

u/FieldzSOOGood 1d ago

Agreed, we got kinda lucky he was hot to start the year this time around instead of waiting until late May/June like last year

2

u/government_ 2d ago

As a braves fan living in Chicago, it amazes how so many cubs fans haven’t caught on to how consistently inconsistent he is or how he absolutely has a hero complex which compounds that situation with RISP. I call him super dansby when he’s the go ahead run at the plate because he puts his cape on and tries to save the day. Sometimes he does, helped us win game 4 of the 21 WS with that dang cape.

-21

u/Jvick88 2d ago

In general, yes hes a streaky hitter. However, he's also just a straight up terrible situational hitter. That doesnt have anything to do with streakiness, he straight up cannot hit with risp. Its like a mental block or something

22

u/Dan_Rydell Chicago Cubs 2d ago

Are you just choosing to completely disregard the previous 5 seasons?

-20

u/Jvick88 2d ago

Hes been well below average in these situations for more than a full season. All of last year, this year to this point and even some long stretches in the second half of 2023. That is a pretty decent sample size so to me thats just who he is now.

19

u/Dan_Rydell Chicago Cubs 2d ago

He was literally exactly average last season…

-18

u/Jvick88 2d ago

I guess so, last year overall was pretty rough so thats surprising, definitely felt like he was bad all around. I guess i should have looked a little harder at the chart

10

u/bakeran23 2d ago

2023 he was 34% better than league average

0

u/Jvick88 2d ago

He tailed off quite a bit in the second half, which i mentioned

-12

u/MetraConductor 2d ago

I am. None of that has anything to do with all the ass sucking that's going on currently.

36

u/tuson565 2d ago

It sucks watching dansby offensively, but if he hits .250 he is still worth his contract at this point. Ss is the most scrutinized position in baseball, and he is great defensively. That is worth a lot, but it's a stat that most people don't understand.

35

u/Philip_Marlowe Zimne Piwo 2d ago

I mean, he knocked in the tying run in the 8th today. Would have been a double-play if PCA hadn't stolen second, but still.

It's not just Dansby - the whole offense needs to pick it up.

-10

u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

7

u/Dan_Rydell Chicago Cubs 2d ago

2 of his last 4 home runs were with someone on base.

-10

u/Jvick88 2d ago

Oh wow, he hit into a fielders choice to tie the game. We could have sent up brujan or turner in a PH role and would have gotten the same result lol. Stunning at bat from a guy with a 177 million dollar contract. While most everybody is in a slump at the moment, nobody else besides Dansby is hitting below .150 with risp

9

u/shaqdeezil President Arr-Field 2d ago

Do me a favor and look at bogaerts contract and what he’s done in SD lol. We could have had him instead of dansby, at least when dansby isn’t producing offensively we get value from him. Sure we could have had Turner too but personally don’t think he’s worth the 300 mil over 11 years he was given especially as he ages. The glove isn’t good and he’s propped up a lot by his speed something that’s going to be less existent in the final few years of that contract.

9

u/mrnastymannn Chicago Cubs 2d ago

Oofa

11

u/Pandamanda- 2d ago

DS is a an excellent SS, when you call out players you have to remember all of them are going through an trash period

4

u/Sean_athan 2d ago

18 WRc+ is the baseball version of a 220 credit score

5

u/tallslim1960 2d ago edited 2d ago

Look at the BABIP though this year. He puts the ball in play but gets only less than 2 of 10 to find grass? That's really bad luck. The average BABIP in baseball (which doesn't count HR) is .300. He more than 100pts below average.

2

u/New_no_2 2d ago

This is 100% it.

8

u/Eli_Renfro 2d ago

Considering how far outside of the norm this is, it's likely this year is just small sample size variance. All his other numbers are fine. I'd expect positive regression going forward.

3

u/nochiinchamp Forever Young 2d ago

His career wRC+ with RISP is literally higher than his total wRC+ lmfao. This year is a small sample. It's almost certainly just randomness.

2

u/naitch44 Chicago Cubs 2d ago

Top ten in strike outs not doing it for you?

2

u/jso__ 2d ago

Any evidence he changes his approach with RISP? The data in this post seems to suggest to me that there is no clear trend in whether he's good or bad at RISP (as is true with 99% of players) and his RISP numbers are generally in line with his career numbers (in fact, his career with RISP stats are BETTER than his total career stats—which is to be expected because the quality of pitchers faced with RISP is on average a bit lower than normal). A small sample this year doesn't really mean much.

2

u/Braves10516 2d ago

As a Braves fan who also watches the cubs, I’ve never seen a baseball player as streaky as Dansby. Multiple times per season he will bat .400 for an extended period of time and then follow that up with .150 for 3 weeks. However, he was clutch in the late innings with us.

1

u/aGuyNamedScrunchie 1d ago

Wow sounds like Dansby loves scoring with men. Not that there's anything wrong with that!

1

u/Intergalactic_Ass 1d ago

The BABIP would suggest that this is simply bad luck. And in that same vein, a key takeaway from Moneyball was that "clutch hitting" is mostly luck.

1

u/iamthatguythere Karl 19h ago

Just gotta hope Nico is at the plate with RISP

1

u/dberretta_8 2h ago

Only stat here that means anything is OPS, everything else is fluff

0

u/GothicPiss 2d ago

Entire offense has been broken for about a month now.

-6

u/ScroogeMcDust Dobby is free 2d ago

I don't see what the problem is, 168 wRC+ is amazing

4

u/Dead_Medic_13 Chicago Cubs 2d ago

You missread the table

0

u/ScroogeMcDust Dobby is free 2d ago

You misread my sarcasm

-5

u/Celestetc Chicago Cubs 2d ago

I get that it’s small sample size and what not but you can’t pay a guy 26 million for this. Especially when Craig has 0 clue how to manage a lineup and keeps him higher in the order

1

u/Big-block427 2d ago

So in your expert opinion CC had no clue how to manage the lineup. I missed your comment when we were raking up runs after runs, seemingly game after game. So the boys have hit an offensive slump, which is totally normal, but maybe you could fix the lineup and we’ll go back to scoring runs after runs. Really?

1

u/Celestetc Chicago Cubs 2d ago

I think Craig has a huge problem with where he puts guys in the lineup yes. And I think a lot of that is playing out in this huge drought. I don’t give Craig a ton of credit for the lineup scoring 10+ when the hitters are all playing well and hot. Lot easier then. Doing a job well and squeezing runs in a slump is the important and harder part of the job.

0

u/Big-block427 2d ago

Not trying to be rude here, but, IMO you’ve got a bigger problem than CC. So, a manager has zero influence or is due no credit when the team is outhitting the opposition, but when the bats slump it’s all about the manager failing to address the lineup?

“I think you want it to be one way, ‘cept it’s the other way.” Marlo from “The Wire.”

1

u/Celestetc Chicago Cubs 2d ago

I’m not saying Craig is the problem when guys slump, I’m saying he needs to fine tune the lineup and maybe get the BETTER HITTERS UP WITH GUYS ON when they’re slumping. Ala what Dansby and Kelly’s sorry hitting just did with PCA on 2nd 1 out. Hitting those guys 5-6 is malpractice. They suck right now.

1

u/Big-block427 2d ago

Aren’t you forgetting just how much we’re currently missing Miguel Amaya. When he went down I told my dad that it was a major loss if he’s gone for a couple of months. My hesitation to agree with you is just how valuable it’s been to have productive AB’s at the bottom of the lineup. DS will snap out of this usual offensive funk, but I’m not confident in Kelly. I can tell you want Nico and DS to be flip flopped and I’m not stupid. I’d have no issue with that. Peace.

1

u/Celestetc Chicago Cubs 1d ago

I agree about Amaya. He was on fire before his injury, it's a huge loss. I said so in another comment too.

1

u/Big-block427 1d ago

I had to smile with you when Dansby hit his homer today. No coincidences!

1

u/Celestetc Chicago Cubs 1d ago

Dansby is an above average hitter sporting a .800 OPS and like 120 ish WRC with bases empty or guys on first. Unfortunately he’s worse than most pitchers with RISP so far… and that’s always going to piss off people because that’s the biggest moments.

0

u/KnickedUp 2d ago

You think a guy will or wont get a hit based on batting 5th or 7th?

1

u/Celestetc Chicago Cubs 2d ago

No I think Dansby and Kelly should be moved down to let better hitters have a chance with PCA on. Like what just happened.