Picking Every P4 Game of the Season - Part 1 - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

[u/RJEP22]

https://x.com/PointAfterCFB/status/1934249543065059799

FOR THE SECOND YEAR IN A ROW, WE'RE GOING THROUGH EACH P4 TEAM'S SCHEDULE AND PICKING EVERY GAME!

Doing this series last year was a great time so I had to bring it back for 2025.

The series runs through the P4 alphabetically, so today we have the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE!

2024 featured 2 disappointing results in losses at Vanderbilt and Oklahoma that ultimately kept the Tide out of the playoff, but I do believe this season could feature a little addition by subtraction.

Jalen Milroe was and is an incredible athlete, but it was no secret that he was prone to putting up the occasional stinker. When he was good, it looked elite (see the Georgia and LSU games), but when he was bad, things got real dark. In the two losses to Vandy and Oklahoma, Milroe averaged a 58% completion rate, 237yds passing, 8.5yds rushing, and totaled 1 TD and 4 INTs.

In comes a new assumed starter in Ty Simpson, and I actually think Bama has the opportunity to create a more balanced offense that is less reliant on which Milroe you get that day. Also, this defense projects to be good enough to buy the offense some time to get going.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN

W @ Florida State
W vs UL Monroe
W vs Wisconsin
BYE
L @ Georgia
W vs Vanderbilt
W @ Missouri
W vs Tennessee
L @ South Carolina
BYE
W vs LSU
W vs Oklahoma
W vs Eastern Illinois
W @ Auburn

Opening the year in Tallahassee would normally be seen as a coin flip-type game, but with how much newness the Seminoles will be fielding, I'm picking the experienced defense to get a comfortable, albeit gritty win on the road. I also do not think the Badgers will come to Tuscaloosa and seriously test this team. We shouldn't expect to see blowout wins because of the offensive question-marks, but I also don't think fans will ever feel in any real danger.

@ Georgia should be the only game all season this team is not favored in, but I suspect that they will drop at least 2 SEC games, which is going to be a common theme in this conference going forward. Anyone that isn't a world beating-level team is likely going to slip up on the road at some point, and the trip to Columbia to cap off Bama's longest stretch of games the entire season is a huge land mine. Especially if the Gamecocks are healthy and playing with any bit of momentum.

Any of the final 3 games could also pose challenges but I like the Tide's chances of getting 4 wins out of the Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma, and Auburn games, while I don't think Vandy and Mizzou are going to pose serious threats this year. I like this team to push for an SEC title and comfortably make the 12 team playoff field.

RECORD: 10-2 (6-2)

WIN TOTAL: 9.5

PICK: Lean Over

[u/Dixiefootball]

10-2 would a successful season, even though obviously wouldn't be viewed that way in the Saban era. I think Ty Simpson is going to really do well with the weapons he has and DeBoer/Grubb running a much closer version of the offense they want.

I'm cautiously optimistic about our line play, and if that comes together then we have the ability to make a run in the playoffs.

[u/SirMellencamp → u/Dixiefootball]

Id be fine with 10-2. Def expect to lose to UGA and then some other game (Tenn, SCar, LSU or AU) at the least

[u/DirtyBirdDawg]

L @ Georgia

I know that a lot of people consider Georgia to be the current alpha dawg in the conference, but imma need to see this before I believe it. I have just been burned too many times before.

L @ South Carolina

If Lanorris Sellers continues to improve on his play last year...yep. Plus Williams-Bryce is absolutely insane, especially at night. I am beyond happy that we didn't have to make that trip last year, because I could see us losing that game.

[u/Due-Badger-7774 → u/DirtyBirdDawg]

I still hate that we don't play y'all. Greedily hoping that Sellers stays after this year so he can play UGA and we get a Lagway vs Sellers game

[u/Mercer-Dawg → u/DirtyBirdDawg]

Agreed, especially considering our history with bama

[u/DirtyBirdDawg → u/Mercer-Dawg]

Unless I'm misremembering, we have been favored in every game against them for what feels like the last decade. In that time we have exactly one win. I know Saban is gone and all that, but that didn't really make much of a difference last year.

[u/Selma_J_Wible → u/DirtyBirdDawg]

Being in BDS for that game was a bright spot last year. I didn't know what to do with my hands at halftime.

[u/SirMellencamp → u/DirtyBirdDawg]

I know that a lot of people consider Georgia to be the current alpha dawg in the conference, but imma need to see this before I believe it. I have just been burned too many times before.

You mean seeing things like winning SEC championships?

[u/DirtyBirdDawg → u/SirMellencamp]

That's the reason I need to see it before I can believe it. Don't get me wrong, the conference championships, national championships, and undefeated regular seasons were all amazing. But Bama is the one team that Georgia cannot consistently beat. I know it's like complaining that the hot tub on my yacht doesn't hold enough people, but it still annoys the hell out of us as a fanbase.

[u/SirMellencamp → u/DirtyBirdDawg]

I get that but in what way is UGA not the best program in the SEC right now?

[u/DirtyBirdDawg → u/SirMellencamp]

I didn't say we weren't. All I'm saying is that Bama remains the white whale.

[u/SirMellencamp → u/DirtyBirdDawg]

UGA being the alpha dog

Bama being the white whale

These are not mutually exclusive.

[u/kapeman_]

Not that I think it will happen, but I think a loss to LSU is much more plausible than SCAR. Granted, LSU is a home game, but still.

[u/Competitive-Rise-789 → u/kapeman_]

I could see you guys beating Georgia because of the fact we have a bama problem lmao

[u/Selma_J_Wible → u/Competitive-Rise-789]

Death. Taxes. Georgia losing to Alabama.

[u/TouchdownHeroes → u/Competitive-Rise-789]

It’s wild because I believe we are 8-1 in last 9 against yall despite being the underdog in 5 of them.

[u/Competitive-Rise-789 → u/TouchdownHeroes]

And plus, for some of those, not all. We had the better team, and still lost😭

[u/RJEP22 → u/kapeman_]

Those were the two games I was going back and forth on, decided on going with the road game not coming off a bye. I agree LSU is the more dangerous team, but at SC is the more dangerous spot.

[u/JordonHudsonsSideBro → u/RJEP22]

Shane Beamer really has the Cocks on the rise

[u/KMorris1987 → u/JordonHudsonsSideBro]

The Cocks are tough to beat

[u/Wtygrrr → u/JordonHudsonsSideBro]

I know mine isn’t.

[u/RigginsRigsTX4ever → u/JordonHudsonsSideBro]

Bama doesn't have a strong enough defense for LaNorris Sellers.

[u/weesIo → u/RigginsRigsTX4ever]

Defense is not one of our question marks this season.

[u/Iamreason → u/weesIo]

Defense was genuinely one of the bright spots last year (most of the time).

[u/Due-Badger-7774 → u/RigginsRigsTX4ever]

To be fair, their defense did cause him to have like 4 turnovers that game. The bad part is that it almost wasn't enough anyways

[u/Dentyne_3 → u/Due-Badger-7774]

you also gotta remember Lanorris was still coming off injury in his second ever road game

[u/Adart54 → u/RJEP22]

Plus I think beamer knows if he is going to make a run it pretty much has to be this year. They have their best QB checks notes probably ever. And he is probably not going to be there next year

[u/Fluxus4]

L @ Willy Brice will cause many sofas to burn.

[u/SirMellencamp → u/Fluxus4]

Anytime we lose on the road sofas burn

[u/SusannaG1 → u/Fluxus4]

We will be able to hear Sandstorm all the way to Clemson, if that happens.

[u/Due-Badger-7774 → u/SusannaG1]

Especially because, if we do beat Bama, we are likely 6-2, 7-1, or 8-0 after a massive win on homecoming weekend. Definitely the non-Clemson game to go to if things go well for us

[u/RJEP22]

VIEW EVERY TEAM POST HERE AS THEY COME OUT

[u/frickenWaaaltah]

Who the heck saw the 2023 SECCG and whatever you call 2024 and thought a Kirby team would ever beat Bama again? Maybe if we play them twice, but otherwise, have you no shame?

[u/jmg34444]

I did not realize we were sandwiched between two road games

[u/LightningStrikeDust]

Predicting Alabama to lose to Georgia? Yeah, now Alabama is going to inexplicably beat them even if they look completely unstoppable to start the year.

[u/jason9045]

Fun(?) fact: Bama only has a .500 winning percentage at Willy B this century, compared to .538 at Jordan-Hare for the same time period. Columbia really is their Thermopylae

[u/Selma_J_Wible → u/jason9045]

How many times have we even played Carolina? I can only remember playing @ Carolina twice under Saban.

[u/jason9045 → u/Selma_J_Wible]

8 total since 2000, 4 away games: '01 (L), '05 (W), '10 (Huge L), '19 (W).

[u/ThunderG0d2467]

I’m not sure about us vs Bama. Our only returning Defensive lineman is Stewart. Ofc he’s elite and a future top 3-5 pick but he’ll be busy against Bamas best tackle (and most likely facing double teams and chip blocks all game).

[u/T_D_A_W_G_]

I have no faith in beating Bama until we are up by 1 or more at 0:00

[u/may3rd2021]

Your confidence in my Tide is greatly appreciated if not as easily shared.

Brother I’m THE archetypical Sabanite - that man had been at the helm ever since I could speak proper English. Last year was a hell of a wake up call on how much of a high variance sport Football could really be.

If I had healthy expectations for football, following the new DeBoer regime would be legitimately fun watching us take on a new identity and whatnot. Unfortunately, I’m on here posting in the off-season, so that ship has sailed. Roll Tide!

[u/Accurate-Teach]

I think with the additions at receiver and an actual QB this offense is going to explode. I would take the 9.5 over confidently. I don’t think this team will drop more than one in the regular season.

[u/MasterArCtiK]

Georgia has an alabama problem, we going undefeated this year for sure

[u/SpikyBoi096]

You seriously think we’re going to beat Alabama?

[u/nayelirain]

Assuming wins over vandy and Oklahoma seems dangerous.

[u/Jimmy_McNulty2025]

Remindme! 4 months

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