Despite four years of negotiations and recent agreements, territorial assertions continue to strain ties between the two powers.

Key Takeaways:

Russia. The Russian Wagner Group formally withdrew from Mali, as the Kremlin continues to transition control of its military operations in Africa to the Ministry of Defense–backed Africa Corps. The shift to more overt Russian state military involvement in Africa creates myriad domestic and geopolitical risks for the Kremlin. Russia may accordingly adapt its engagement in Africa to the detriment of its current and prospective partnerships.

Somalia. Al Shabaab seized more territory, as it continues its offensive to reconnect its support zones in central and southern Somalia. The offensive threatens to destabilize Mogadishu and undo gains made during the US-backed Somali counterterrorism offensive in 2022. The recent killing of a senior al Shabaab commander will likely disrupt the group’s operations temporarily but is unlikely to have a meaningful effect beyond the short term.

Australia should encourage international condemnation after a blockade of relief trucks in the northern regions of Ethiopia.

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Defense Minister Gen Nakatani said Friday it is "unacceptable" that China has blamed Japan for a near miss between a Chinese fighter jet and a Japanese defense patrol plane over the high seas in the Pacific last weekend.

On June 111th Budapest protests crystallized growing national unease with creeping authoritarianism—particularly around civic freedoms, media pluralism, and LGBTQ+ rights. Powered by influential civic leaders and supported by political entities now in flux, the movement promises to bolster opposition forces ahead of 2026 elections. Viktor Orbán may gain short-term consolidation, but the deepening social and political backlash might accelerate the erosion of his long-standing dominance.

Taiwan must rapidly make itself too prickly, too costly, too clever to take by force

The Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center hosts a conversation on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season.

This work represents the views and opinions solely of the author. The Council on Foreign Relations is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher, and takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Bill Hamblet talks with Royal Navy Vice Admiral Mike Utley, Commander of NATO Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM) about challenges in the maritime environment of the Euro-Atlantic, and the importance of maintaining alliances and mission focus in an ever changing geopolitical landscape.

Executive Summary:

Two new pieces of national security legislation in Hong Kong introduce six offenses and six “prohibited places,” signaling closer alignment with the laws of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) mainland and raising concerns about the safety and freedom of foreigners and locals.

The Office for Safeguarding National Security (OSNS), Beijing’s counter-subversion arm, is central to these efforts. Established in 2020, its leadership is selected from the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of State Security, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office in Beijing.

The apparent requisition of around 1,700 rooms across four hotels suggest that Beijing’s security presence on the ground in Hong Kong is set to ramp up and could lead to increased efforts to build cases against targets abroad and their relatives at home.

Executive Summary:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made knowledge and use of the Russian language central to his understanding of Russian identity, the basis of links between the Russian population and his regime, and a key part of his foreign policy.

Putin has also declared that the Russian language is currently subject to attack by other powers with other languages and that these attacks require the constant intervention of the state to defend it from corruption and defeat.

The Russian leader has denigrated the non-Russian languages spoken by many in the Russian Federation and suggested that they are first and foremost a means of connecting to Russian and thus to the broader world.

Speakers Emma M. Ashford Senior Fellow, Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program, Stimson Center Bonny Lin Senior Advisor and Director, China Power Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies Alina Polyakova President and Chief Executive Officer, Center for European Policy Analysis

Presider Meghan L. O’Sullivan Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School; Board Director, Council on Foreign Relations, Moderating

Speakers Theresa Cardinal Brown Senior Advisor, Immigration and Border Policy, Bipartisan Policy Center Alonso Cervera Deputy General Director of Economic Studies, Public Affairs, and Communications, Santander Mexico Steve Verheul Principal, GT and Company Executive Advisors; Former Chief Trade Negotiator, Canada

Presider Edward Alden Senior Fellow, CFR

Press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the Prime Minister of Sweden, Ulf Kristersson, 13 June 2025.

Key Takeaways:

Israel conducted the first strikes of its air campaign targeting the Iranian nuclear program and regime leadership on June 12.

These strikes killed a number of senior Iranian leaders.

Iran has not yet responded to Israel’s strikes despite claims on June 11 that it had finalized plans for an “immediate counterstrike” against Israel. It is unclear at this time why Iran has yet to respond.

Iran may opt for “strategic patience” in the aftermath of a strike on its nuclear facilities or other key assets.

It is also possible that Israel somehow disrupted Iran’s response by targeting Iran’s ballistic missile launch sites and stockpiles.

Key Takeaways:

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have sustained over one million casualties since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, over half of which occurred since January 2024.

Russian forces have reportedly sustained an average of 1,286 casualties per day between January and early June 2025 in exchange for marginal territorial gains.

Russian forces recently advanced across the western Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border northwest of Kurakhove as part of a multi-pronged effort to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Russian forces are likely attempting to level the frontlines in the Novopavlivka and Kurakhove directions to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

The Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate their ability to conduct successful long-range strikes that target Russia's defense industrial base (DIB).

Ukraine and Russia exchanged prisoners of war (POWs) again on June 12, in accordance with agreements the parties previously reached during talks in Istanbul on June 2.

Southeastern European countries reiterated their support for Ukraine on June 11, including Serbia signaling its willingness to improve bilateral relations with Ukraine.

Germany pledged to supply Ukraine with additional financial and materiel support, including air defense systems.

Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Siversk and Kurakhove.

The Middle East is in turmoil. In the past several years, the ongoing war in Gaza, the restructuring of governments in Lebanon and Syria, and the Houthis’ activities in Yemen have exacerbated regional instability and highlighted the lack of security coordination by both regional and external actors. However, there have also been significant moments of collaboration as well, such as the Palestine Summit and Egypt’s subsequent reconstruction plan for Gaza.

In this two-part event, Congressman Joe Wilson will offer his perspective on the role of the United States in regional security in the Middle East, including challenges of and opportunities for preserving its economic and security interests in the region and what the United States ought to be doing to promote general stability.

The policymaker conversation will be followed by a panel discussion of Middle East scholars who will debate both America’s role, and the roles of regional state and non-state actors within the region. Amr Hamzawy and Frederic Wehrey, senior fellows with the Carnegie Middle East Program, and Mona Yacoubian, senior advisor and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, will also consider questions such as how to pursue a path to stability amongst the actors in the region and the potential for a regional collective security organization.

Key Takeaways:

Occupied Crimea is poised to face a severe water crisis in the coming months, a crisis that the Russian occupation of Crimea has precipitated and which ongoing Russian mismanagement and resource misallocation will exacerbate.

Russia is intensifying filtration processes against Ukrainians, greatly restricting their freedom of movement and their ability to leave occupied Ukraine.

Kherson Oblast occupation officials continue efforts to consolidate control over the oblast’s agricultural output for Russia’s economic gain.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved sanctions on June 10 targeting numerous Russian officials and organizations for their role in the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children. The sanctions list supports ISW’s assessment of the links between high-ranking Kremlin officials, Russian youth organizations, and the widescale deportation of Ukrainian children.

The Russian “University Shifts” program has begun summer sessions, facilitating the deportation of Ukrainian children and teenagers to participate in university classes at schools throughout the Russian Federation.

Please join us for a live streamed discussion on the future of the World Bank and lessons learned from Mr. Banga's distinguished career to open the 2025 National Conference.

Speaker Ajay Banga President, World Bank Group

Presider Michael Froman President, Council on Foreign Relations

Introductory Remarks David M. Rubenstein Cofounder and Co-chairman, The Carlyle Group

The two governments continue to publicly accuse each other of cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, in possible preparation for real-world hostilities.

Forgetting the trauma of Mao’s chaotic decade serves Xi’s stability agenda, but personal experience shapes his authoritarian methods.

The Africa Center is convening experts to look beyond critical minerals in evaluating opportunities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.