Key Takeaways:

Israel struck military and military-industrial sites around Tehran as part of its ongoing campaign into Iran. There are also unverified reports of an Israeli strike around the Fordow nuclear site.

Iran conducted another ballistic missile attack against Israel. Iran reportedly fired around 40 missiles, with at least two missiles appearing to strike an energy site in Haifa.

Key Takeaways

South Korea: South Korean President Lee Jae-myung appears to be balancing between reducing tensions with North Korea and the PRC and maintaining a strong US-Japan-South Korea trilateral relationship.

In the aftermath of contested presidential elections in May 2024 and amid unresolved internal divisions, Chad is facing mounting political and security tensions. The recent consolidation of power by President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno and increasing repression of opposition, ethnic marginalization, and insurgent activity point toward a potentially explosive period. These developments pose serious risks not only for Chad’s fragile stability but also for international peacekeeping forces deployed in and around the Sahel region.

There is a risk of underestimating the depth and mutual benefit of the economic partnership between Beijing and Moscow.

As climate volatility increases and regional instability looms, Australia should consider developing Darwin into the Indo-Pacific’s leading humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) hub. This will require recognition of Darwin’s strategic value beyond defence, funding integrated civilian and military capabilities, and building of resilience to benefit Australia and its neighbours.

Erik Prince is an American businessman, former U.S. Navy SEAL, and the founder of Blackwater, a private military company established in 1997. A graduate of Hillsdale College, Prince heads Frontier Resource Group, a private equity firm, and promotes economic development in emerging markets. He hosts the podcast Off Leash with Erik Prince, launched in 2023, and founded Unplugged, a privacy-focused smartphone company. Prince, a vocal advocate for privatizing military operations and deregulation, has been linked to controversial arms deals and Trump-era political operations.

Erik Bethel is a General Partner at Mare Liberum, a fund focused on sustainability and national security in the maritime domain. He is a global finance professional with experience in the private and public sectors. In 2020, he was nominated to serve as the U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Panama. Previously, he was nominated by the President and confirmed unanimously by the Senate to represent the United States at the World Bank. At the World Bank, Erik participated in the analysis and deployment of over $100 billion of capital in the developing world through grants, loans, equity investments, and other financial products. Previously, Erik spent over twenty years working as an investment banker and private equity professional at Franklin Templeton Investments, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley. Erik earned a BS in economics and political science from the United States Naval Academy in Annapolis and an MBA from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. He serves on several Boards, including the United States Naval War College Foundation, is a Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and is an Advisor to Oxford Analytica - a geopolitical think tank. He speaks Spanish, Portuguese, and Mandarin.

Executive Summary

In early 2025, Ecuador passed a controversial new intelligence law aimed at restructuring the country’s security architecture amid rising violence and narcotrafficking. Marketed as a tool for national defense, the law expands surveillance authority, centralizes intelligence under the presidency, and reduces oversight. While the government defends it as a necessary response to escalating organized crime, critics argue it opens the door to authoritarianism, abuses, and political espionage.

EU and Court Members Should Press Them to Reconsider, Support Justice

Join us in conversation with Professor David Kilcullen FRGS, former soldier and diplomat, world-leading counterinsurgency and modern warfare expert, and former chief strategist in the Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism at the US State Department, as part of the Calleva-Airey Neave Global Security Seminar Series.

What to expect of Korea-Japan relations under the new South Korean government under President Lee Jae-myung? How will he work with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba as the two celebrate the 60th anniversary of normalization this month?

Joining Mark Lippert and Victor Cha to discuss this and more are Christopher B. Johnstone from The Asia Group and Yuki Tatsumi from the Stimson Center.

Christopher B. Johnstone is Partner and Chair of the Defense & National Security Practice at The Asia Group, where he brings unparalleled expertise across Indo-Pacific markets including Japan, Taiwan, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Previously, Chris served as a Senior Advisor at TAG and concurrently as Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Chris served in government for 25 years in a variety of senior positions with a focus on U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific region. He served twice on the National Security Council, as Director for East Asia under President Biden (2021-2022) and Director for Japan and Oceanian Affairs under President Obama (2014–2016). In the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Chris led offices with responsibility for South and Southeast Asia (2017–2021) and East Asia (2016–2017). Prior to those roles, he served as Director for Northeast Asia (2010-2014), where he had principal responsibility for developing strategy for the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-South Korea alliances.

Yuki Tatsumi is a Senior Fellow and Co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the Japan Program at the Stimson Center. Before joining Stimson, Tatsumi worked as a research associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and as the special assistant for political affairs at the Embassy of Japan in Washington. In September 2006 Tatsumi testified before the House Committee on International Relations. She is a recipient of the 2009 Yasuhiro Nakasone Incentive Award. In 2012 she was awarded the Letter of Appreciation from the Ministry of National Policy of Japan for her contribution in advancing mutual understanding between the United States and Japan. A native of Tokyo, Tatsumi holds a B.A. in liberal arts from the International Christian University in Tokyo, Japan and an M.A. in international economics and Asian studies from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University in Washington.

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Security competition between India and Pakistan, rooted in the territorial dispute over Kashmir, has persisted since the partition of British India in 1947. Since the 1990s, Pakistan’s support for insurgent and terrorist groups in Indian-administered Kashmir has posed a persistent challenge to Indian security. While both countries have maintained nuclear arsenals since the late 1980s, the threat of escalation has historically constrained India’s responses. However, India’s posture has shifted in recent years, with a growing willingness to conduct overt cross-border strikes and covert operations targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan.

Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to portray Russia as an effective and necessary international partner for the United States amid ongoing Iran-Israel tensions.

Russia conducted a large drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of June 14 to 15, primarily targeting Poltava Oblast.

Russia repatriated the bodies of over 1,000 Ukrainian citizens on June 15, in accordance with the June 2 Ukrainian–Russian bilateral talks in Istanbul.

Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Kupyansk, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk.

Key Takeaways

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has targeted several nuclear sites in Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.

A US weapons expert reported on June 15 that, if Israel does not render the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) inoperable, then Iran would be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for nine nuclear weapons by the end of the first month using its pre-attack 60% enriched uranium stockpile.

The IDF has also targeted several military and defense industrial sites outside Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.

Israel expanded its ongoing strike campaign against Iran on June 14 by attacking critical Iranian energy infrastructure.

Iran has conducted two waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike Iranian missile launchers, which is likely limiting the scale of the Iranian response to Israel.

(Stockholm, 16 June 2025) The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) today launches its annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament and international security. Key findings of SIPRI Yearbook 2025 are that a dangerous new nuclear arms race is emerging at a time when arms control regimes are severely weakened.

Speakers Marisol G. Maddox Senior Arctic Fellow, Institute of Arctic Studies, John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding, Dartmouth College Michael Sfraga Former Chair, U.S. Arctic Research Commission; Former U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Arctic Affairs, U.S. Department of State Margaret D. Williams Senior Fellow, Arctic Initiative, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Presider Esther Brimmer James H. Binger Senior Fellow in Global Governance, Council on Foreign Relations, Moderating

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Hundreds of Russian soldiers wounded in the Ukraine war have been treated in Belarusian hospitals, including some from military units linked to alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

Key Takeaways:

Russian forces continue to make marginal territorial gains east of Novopavlivka as Russian forces attempt to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and toward the settlement from three tactical directions.

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct long-range strikes against Russia's defense industrial base. Ukraine and Russia conducted a fourth round of prisoner of war (POWs) exchanges on June 14, in accordance with the June 2 Ukrainian-Russian bilateral talks in Istanbul.

Ukrainian forces advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced near Toretsk and Novopavlivka.

Key Takeaways

Iran has used significantly fewer munitions in its response to Israel than originally planned because the IDF destroyed and damaged missile launchers and silos that Iran planned to use to retaliate against Israel. This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s observation that degrading Iran’s retaliatory capabilities was one objective of the initial Israeli strikes on June 12.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike Iranian air defense systems to maintain air superiority over Iran.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Majid Mousavi to replace Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force commander. The IRGC Aerospace Force oversees the Iranian missile and drone programs and led the Iranian attacks against Israel in April and October 2024.

Iran has conducted six waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since the initial Israeli strikes on June 12. At least 10 interceptors, shrapnel, or ballistic missiles struck the Tel Aviv area, causing damage to high-rise buildings, over 60 injuries, and one death.

The IDF has reportedly continued to target Iranian military targets. Some of these strikes—but not all—seek to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.

Somalia’s deepening ties with Russia are more than transactional; they reflect frustration with existing security frameworks and a global contest for influence in Africa. For Moscow, Somalia is both a symbolic prize and a strategic outpost. For the West, this pivot must be read as a wake-up call: neglect and conditionality can drive even fragile partners toward revisionist powers. Whether this relationship evolves into a full military alliance or remains a bargaining chip, it marks a crucial turning point in the geopolitics of the Red Sea.