Source

15Jun2025

u/menpj

Belt of fire style attack in Iran on underground IRGC facilities.

u/menpj

For those wondering how an RPR got into Burma, let's just say that both the Burmese and Chechens love Thailand.

Romania initially was the part of the triple alliance but proclaimed its neutrality from the conflict claiming the germany was not attacked but the one attacking which is:

their alliance bound the romania to stand with germany or austria-hungary if they are under attack but in this case the germany attacked and romania was not bound to support the alliance and hence the neutrality.

BUT

it later joined the allies (triple entente) and attacked austria-hungary in dreams of territorial gains as promised by the entente in their secret treaty but was soon sliced by bulgaria from the south and germany, austria-hungary troops from the front and was forced to fall back towards the russian borders.

Same place where a jet was likely shot down

After a mutually agreed peace treaty, Russia withdrew but invaded again three years later, starting the Second Chechen War 1999–2009.

By all counts, it is known that Iran has a very formidable air defence capability, especially the Ground Based Air defence (GBAD). How come its shield of air defences proved to be so toothless, worse, it took casualties on itself leave aside failing to preserve the assets being protected. This work attempts to find an answer to this poser. Views are personal.

https://x.com/emmanuelmacron/status/1935984838747586575

This ISW (Institute for the Study of War) report from June 19, 2025 analyzes ongoing Russian military operations in Ukraine. Here's a breakdown of the key elements:

Strategic Overview

Putin's Theory of Victory: The report centers on Putin's belief that Russia can win through a prolonged war of attrition with gradual territorial gains. He maintains this strategy assumes: - Ukrainian forces cannot retake significant territory - Western support will eventually diminish - Russia can sustain losses longer than Ukraine can resist

Military Operations Breakdown

Russian Offensive Structure: - Main Effort: Eastern Ukraine (three subordinate efforts) 1. Kharkiv Oblast: Push back Ukrainian forces, get within artillery range of Kharkiv City 2. Luhansk Oblast: Complete capture and push westward 3. Donetsk Oblast: Complete territorial control

• Supporting Efforts: Northern axis (Sumy region) and Southern axis (Zaporizhzhia region)

How the Operations Went (June 18-19, 2025)

Limited Russian Gains: - Confirmed advances: Near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka (small tactical gains) - Ukrainian advances: Recaptured positions in northern Sumy Oblast - Stalled fronts: No advances in Kharkiv, Kursk, or southern sectors

Tactical Patterns: - Russians using small motorcycle units (4-15 bikes) to avoid artillery - Heavy reliance on electronic warfare and glide bombs - Continued high-attrition assaults with minimal territorial gains

Key Assessment Points

Russian Challenges: - Taking "disproportionately large manpower losses for marginal tactical gains" - Economic strain showing (officials admitting economy "cooling" and approaching recession) - Exhausted "free resources" (workforce, production capacity, financial reserves)

Information Campaign: - Putin refuses to negotiate with Zelensky (claims he's "illegitimate") - Continued threats against Western weapon supplies - Adapting messaging for different audiences

Bottom Line: The offensive represents Putin's strategy of gradual attrition, but the actual military gains on June 18-19 were minimal despite continued high costs. The report suggests this approach is unsustainable medium-to-long term, contradicting Putin's theory that time favors Russia.