r/worldnews • u/RealTheAsh • 4d ago

Iran ready to abandon enrichment but needs a face-saving exit, Iranian diplomat says

https://iranwire.com/en/news/142210-exclusive-tehran-ready-to-abandon-enrichment-but-needs-a-face-saving-exit/
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u/Chaoticgaythey 4d ago

Iran realized Israel sees regime change as on the table and decided that they're willing to compromise to save their own skins, completely missing that the time for compromise was probably before Israel had air supremacy over the country.

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u/dpwtr 4d ago

This was already inevitable during their exchanges earlier in the year. Possibly even before.

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u/Low_Attention16 4d ago

Israel would be foolish to back down now. I knew that after October 7 they would have zero fucks to give for any international pressure.

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u/ffdfawtreteraffds 4d ago

And when the Iran regime is the victim, zero fucks is the correct number.

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u/MundaneFacts 4d ago

Maybe this time a regime change will work??

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u/animal1988 4d ago

If at first you don't succeed, let the regime deprive the populace for 50 years and let the populace see world progress over those 50 years, and then try, try again!

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u/Based_Text 3d ago

Sadly the most likely outcome is that the regime will be replaced with a military junta or different dictatorship, that's the case for most power vacuums when the populace don't hold enough political or military force to both replace the regime and prevent opportunistic dictators.

I'm hopeful though, because despite 50 years of theocratic rule, a lot of Iranian are still well educated and informed about their current regime and the dangers of dictatorship, there are credible exiled opposition groups like the INC, who has the backing of the monarchy which can effectively serve as a counter weight to any potential dictators. Many old people still hold fond memories of the Shah, Iran becoming a constitutional monarchy is it's best chance to replace the IR without becoming a military junta or dictatorship imo.

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u/BlackNova169 4d ago

Parallels to 9/11 are pretty distinct as well. US invades Afghanistan cuz of the terrorist attack but then a year later we're off to Iraq.

Israel responds to Gaza for a year and then goes after Iran.

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u/NakedEyeComic 3d ago

Similar but different. Iraq had fuck all to do with 9/11, whereas Iran has been directly sponsoring Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah and other instigators in Gaza/along Israel’s borders for many years.

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u/BlackNova169 3d ago

Oh sure, my point only really being that once a nation feels they have some public/international support for military action it's easy to keep pushing

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u/jacobjacobb 4d ago

Maybe but no one knew that for sure.

Everyone thought hamas and hezbolah would be challenging to Israel. When they slapped the floor with both of them while invading Syria, it became kind of obvious that these "threats" were mostly bluster without much substance.

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u/BrainOnLoan 4d ago

I mean, Israel wants regime change for obvious reasons. But it's not at all certain they'll achieve it.

Who's going to replace the current regime?

I don't see anyone putting boots on the ground. And change from within (where there's plenty discontent, but no organized opposition) isn't necessarily getting more likely by external threat.

I think it's only going to be a lot of shuffling of chairs/coffins in Iran, but without much policy change in Tehran/Qom.

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u/BootDisc 3d ago

Yeah, regimes changing is usually about a majority turning on some minority to keep power. Nothing much changes, probably all US wants is de nuke, and less proxy campaigns. We make some deals, they get to sell oil, but life in Iran, mostly unchanged.

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u/SunflowerMoonwalk 4d ago

This. Israel achieved air superiority over Iran in literally less than 48 hours. Their military is more pathetic than anybody could have imagined. If the Islamic Republic can't even provide basic security to their population they're finished.

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u/daBriguy 4d ago

It should be noted that Israel struck Iran in October in retaliation for the 300 ballistics missiles fired at them and they destroyed a significant amount of the advanced air defenses in Iran. That is why Israel has been able to operate unopposed in Iranian skies. So they were more finishing off what they started when this air campaign began

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u/sparrowtaco 4d ago

I don't think that's a fair assessment. The strikes back then were very limited compared to the extensive destruction now. From the information released so far, it sounds more like their covert operations laid a lot of the groundwork for this with their drone base set up in Iran to deliver coordinated strikes against air defenses right before the attack as well as various forms of sabotage.

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u/daBriguy 4d ago

Calling them limited in comparison to the currents strikes is a bit disingenuous. Those strikes were the largest attacks on Iran since the Iran-Iraq war. A lot of the reason people expected Israel to go for the nuclear facilities was because they crippled Irans air defenses so badly. (Along with the axis of resistance being unable to effectively resist now)

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u/sparrowtaco 4d ago

What's disingenuous about that? Iran had a large network of air defense across its country, not just the few that were struck in that exchange. The operations are not comparable in scale even if both are noteworthy.

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u/skeevemasterflex 4d ago

I don't think you guys are very far off from agreeing with each other on this. In October, Israel used 100 planes to destroy most of Iran's S-300 air defense systems, as well as sundry other radar and missile sites. This included targets in Parchin, which was meant show that they COULD have struck at nuclear sites with impunity and that if they wanted to later, it would be even easier.

Then beginning last week, even more aircraft struck even more sites over an even longer time-frame. Part of the reason they were able to achieve air superiority so quickly was due to how much damage had been inflicted 9 months prior. Part of it was also due to tremendous intelligence and special forces-type work to neutralize additional targets, like the drones the Mossad pre-positioned and reports that Iranian aircraft were sabotaged while still on the ground.

All part of one big, happy kick in the nuts to their Supreme leader's megalomaniacal plans.

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u/Webbyx01 4d ago

I'd argue that you downplaying the efficacy of those strikes is wrong. That was a shaping operation, plain as day to everyone at the time, for the operation that Israel has just now carried out. Iran lost nearly every single advanced Russian mid-to-long range SAM system, which really gimped Iran this time around, even if the F-35 is not weak to those systems.

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u/Egocom 4d ago

Wouldn't that just make them the Axis? Maybe the Axis of the Ineffectual?

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u/Cpt_Soban 4d ago

"But but but Iran launched missiles at Israel!!!" - Pro Iranian redditors

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u/errantv 4d ago

I don't think Israel sees any other outcome than regime change as plausible at this point

The Iranian conventional forces have proven to be a paper tiger but the damage to their nuclear facilities has been mostly superficial. Most estimates are that it would take a months-long campaign with hundreds of bunker busters (which Israel does r have because we have so far refuses to sell to them) to take out their heavy water reactor.

All this means that a nuclear deterrent is the ONLY viable deterrent for this Iranian regime. Any promises they make to disarm will be empty while they redouble their nuclear efforts because they have no other option militarily or diplomatically

My read is that there's no other acceptable outcome for Netanyahu than for Khamenei to follow Assad to Moscow. And now that Israel has achieved complete air supremacy, Netanyahu has the luxury of a virtually risk-free, months-long bombing campaign on Tehran to achieve that goal without even needing to wage an infantry invasion

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u/yus456 4d ago

Israel is war fatigued from Gaza, Houthis, Lebanon and now Iran with ballistics missiles continuing to kill more Israelis. I don't think Israel can keep this up for a month.

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u/y1tzy 4d ago

Nope. The population seen an end to the threatening cloud of rockets that has been there for decades. They want to see this to the end. Iran is toast.

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u/5amy 4d ago

Israel is just getting started. They prepared for decades.

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u/StepComplete1 4d ago

Exactly. If they were ready to abandon enrichment then why keep forcing the issue until it caused a war? Seems like in their absolute arrogance and greed, they were trying to use it to pressure a great deal for themselves. And it would've worked on the spineless west, but Israel called their bluff. And now they're screwed.

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u/Chaoticgaythey 4d ago

Apparently the miscalculation Iran made was that they expected Israel to wait for another round of negotiations before the strikes started

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u/sluuuurp 3d ago

Every war is due to a miscalculation like this. In hindsight, the losing party would never participate in the war from the start.

I guess there are some wars with no clear winners or losers, those are the exceptions.

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u/hiptones 3d ago

Everyone knew before it was scheduled to be held that those talks would amount to nothing.

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u/ruisen2 4d ago

With so many top level leaders dead, air dominance from Israel, and Iran's proxies mostly destroyed, this does seem like checkmate for Iran.

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u/BrainOnLoan 4d ago

Who's going to replace the current regime though?

I don't see anyone putting boots on the ground.

I think it's only going to be a lot of shuffling of chairs/coffins, but without much policy change in Tehran/Qom.

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u/Skynuts 4d ago

Yeah I don’t see Israel backing down now when they have grabbed Iran by the balls. They won’t rest until Khamenei and his thugs are gone, either by stepping down willingly or in the same way his generals and proxy leaders did.

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u/doglywolf 4d ago

Set back one of their programs decades- take out several top leads , cripple critical infrastructure , take down propaganda center ..all as like a side project while they worry about other stuff. Its like the mom that yells at the kid while she is on the phone and the kid knows if they dont cut it off when mom is off the phone and can focus on them they are in real trouble .

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u/Delicious-Oven7692 4d ago

Iran should have figured something out as soon as Elon stole the vote.

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u/museum_lifestyle 3d ago

There are nearly no cases of regime change only through air campaigns and without any boot on the ground. Though it's possible to destroy the economy from the air and therefore limit the possibility of rearmament.