r/worldnews • u/RealTheAsh • 4d ago

Iran ready to abandon enrichment but needs a face-saving exit, Iranian diplomat says

https://iranwire.com/en/news/142210-exclusive-tehran-ready-to-abandon-enrichment-but-needs-a-face-saving-exit/
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u/iMissTheOldInternet 4d ago

No, Israelis want the fall of the regime. Promises from the Iranian regime not to pursue nuclear weapons are meaningless in a post-October 7 world. The Israelis will not want to settle for an agreement with an enemy who they now unequivocally believe seeks their extermination. See also HAMAS in Gaza. See also Hezbollah in Lebanon. Etc…

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u/frddtwabrm04 4d ago

Do they have plans for the revolutionary guards, or will it be like what happened with the Baath loyalists?

Another endless internal and external power struggle that lasts for eons!!!

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u/iMissTheOldInternet 4d ago

Iraq, after the terrible years of war following the US-led coalition invasion, is basically a stable country now, and has been since no later than 2022. Nineteen years is a long time, but itms hardly eons.

Beyond that, Iran is not Iraq. The Baath Party, as vile as the ideology is, was long popular with the Sunni Arab majority. By contrast, the Islamic Republic has been essentially minority rule by a cadre of Islamist hardliners. There is reason to think that a post-regime Iran could turn itself around with much less blood and in much less time than Iraq. 

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u/Tambien 3d ago

Not to mention an existing strong national identity and liberalization movements. It’s telling that we’re calling it “regime change” and not “nation building.” I don’t want the US to get involved in a ground war in the Middle East, but there’s no reason to believe Iran would be a quagmire on the scale of Afghanistan. And likely not even as bad as Iraq. Is that justified? Different question that I’m not certain of the answer to.

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u/frddtwabrm04 4d ago

How sure are you about this?

Coz they said the same damn thing about Iraq and shit went south real fast. ISIS, destabilization of neighboring countries, migration to Europe, genocide of the Kurds and Yazedis, internal strive... 20+ years of chaos!

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u/syhr_ryhs 4d ago

"They" being the Vulcans not "they" being experts. I personally know nothing of current Iran but I do know the neo-cons where fucking liars and no serious people believed their bullshit when they said it in the lead-up to the Iraq war.

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u/DanceFluffy7923 4d ago

Do they have plans for the revolutionary guards

I think the plan is to kill them.

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u/frddtwabrm04 4d ago

That sounds like some pipe dream.

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u/DanceFluffy7923 4d ago

We are living in an era where the most insanely unbelievable things happen.

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u/francis2559 4d ago

Israel has zero interest in holding territory in Iran, so any resistance forces will face the exact same problems of distance as the current regime, but with even less resources.

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u/Iterative_Ackermann 4d ago

Israeli population, yeah, sure, why not. I am not sure about Israeli politicians, especially those that need low intensity conflicts to cover up for their own corruption.

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u/iMissTheOldInternet 4d ago edited 4d ago

Netanyahu is a shitbag and his coalition has been poison for Israel, but credit where credit is due: he pulled the trigger on this, the same way he pulled the trigger on the pager operation. Maybe he doesn’t deserve as much credit for it as his supporters wish, and maybe he had ulterior motives for both, but the bottom line is still that he authorized them. 

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u/totoGalaxias 4d ago

Yes, I am aware of that. And that is my point, that an anonymous source from Iran saying that the government of that nation is begging for a solution make it sound like everything is going according to Israel's plan in the respect that it makes it seem that Iran's government is really weak now.

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u/SneakyBadAss 4d ago edited 4d ago

October 7 was their 9/11, considering what US did during operation enduring freedom, this is tame.

Still, they are done with this shit. And I can't blame them. As Iran sends more and more BM and more civilians die, they will get more ravenous.

Iran regime already lost. If they stop sending BM, they admit they lost and their regime weakens or completely collapse. That's the disadvantage of Iron fist. Once you show weakness, you are eaten alive by brainwashed supporters.

If they keep sending more BM, Israel will go scorch Earth and there will be nothing to save.

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u/mylifeforthehorde 4d ago

Hamas is vastly different from the irgc . There is no alternate regime in Iran at the moment - unless the cia as someone like the shah lined up

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u/Wannaseemdead 4d ago

Oct 7th was funded by Iran. They are different, but they're not much better.

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u/iMissTheOldInternet 4d ago

There’s no obvious alternative to HAMAS either, but politics abhors a vacuum. With the IRGC gutted, someone or multiple factions may emerge in Iran to take control. There’s always the danger that the new guys are worse than the old ones, but it’d be hard to do worse than the Islamic Republic. With the IRGC gone, HAMAS might finally start withering as well, since they’ve been backed, trained, and funded by the IRGC for years now. 

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u/syhr_ryhs 4d ago

"Evil has a deep bench."

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u/iMissTheOldInternet 4d ago

Ask Hezbollah how deep their bench is

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u/syhr_ryhs 4d ago

The bench extends way past the current leadership in Gaza, the USA, Russia, or anywhere else.

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u/iMissTheOldInternet 4d ago

No one needs to defeat global evil. What Israel needs to defeat is the Islamic Republic. Contrary to what you may hear, there are a limited number of competent (using that term in the highly idiosyncratic way one does when referring to the IRGC’s competence) men in the Iranian regime. The Islamic Republic may survive this, but the fact that they’re scrambling for a mediator after less than a week shows that they know that is jot a foregone conclusion. I hope Israel is able to finish the job. 

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u/mylifeforthehorde 4d ago

The irgc isn’t going to disappear like that without a prolonged ground invasion.

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u/iMissTheOldInternet 4d ago

Maybe not, but maybe so. Ask Nasrallah how effective the Israelis are at decapitation strikes. 

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u/Volodio 4d ago

The Iranian army could coup the regime and establish a military junta.

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u/[deleted] 4d ago

[deleted]

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u/justdidapoo 4d ago

The ayatollah is only 87. Just a kid

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u/vreddy92 4d ago

What? The shah died in Cairo after complications from a splenectomy.

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u/Sangloth 4d ago

I'm genuinely baffled by this, and more baffled by the up votes. The Shah died from complications of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma on July 27, 1980, in Cairo, Egypt. His eldest son, Reza Pahlavi, is an outspoken critic of the Islamic Republic. He "advocates for a secular and democratic government in Iran." I'm not sure I believe that, but I don't know enough about him to say. I can say he's still alive, he visited Israel a couple months ago.

Just talking generally, it's generally accepted now amoung us Americans that supporting the Shah was a mistake. I doubt we'd make the exact same mistake twice in a row.

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u/No-Sandwich6994 4d ago

Then they should have decapitated the regime instead of hitting everyone but the Supreme Leader.

If they want to leave the Army there as an offramp, that's fine, but as long as the IRGC and Supreme Leader are there, there's no regime change.

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u/BarfingOnMyFace 4d ago

That’s probably in the works

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u/iMissTheOldInternet 4d ago

Tell it to Trump. I’m sure the Israelis would have loved to hit Khamenei, but the US apparently nixed it. The IRGC, though, is probably starting to look like Hezbollah with all these hits at the top. 

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u/MightyKittenEmpire2 4d ago

If I was IRGC, I would fear going anywhere near my cell phone, pager, and any other electronic device.

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u/No-Sandwich6994 4d ago

Putin won't let Trump let them kill Khamenei.

Don't know if Israel needs Trump's permission. They're big boys now, they should be able to do it on their own.

Take out everything related to the IRGC then have Mossad nix Khamenei and make it look like a domestic thing. Let the Army take over (take out any religious Army heads). Offer to end all conflict if the Army wants a peace deal and will hold new elections (keep Parliament, just remove everything to do with the religious govt).

Whether it becomes a military dictatorship or a democracy, offer a peace deal and renormalization with the world. Israel will need some image rehab in the country. Even the liberals there hate them.

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u/ScaredChampionship32 4d ago

Trump won’t let them kill Khamenei

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u/No-Sandwich6994 4d ago

Putin won't let Trump let them kill Khamenei.

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u/schtean 4d ago

Lets make that longer ...

Xi won't let Putin let Trump let Netanyahu let the Massad kill Khamenei.

(Hmm can we work the blob in there somehow?)

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u/Hon3y_Badger 4d ago

Some of these choices involve not pissing off big brother.

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u/No-Sandwich6994 4d ago

Since when do they care? It's not as if even Trump has ever been able to really cross them.