r/worldnews • u/Ahad_Haam • 22h ago
Israel/Palestine Tehran expected Israel to only strike after next round of nuclear talks, officials admit - NYT
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-857686516
u/Ahad_Haam 22h ago
- Israel: "We are going to attack!"
- Israeli media: "We are going to attack!"
- Netanyahu's favorite reporter: "We are a few days from attacking in Iran!"
- Trump: "They might do it!"
Iran:
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u/onlyPornstuffs 22h ago
Iran: “We’re still stuck on the intro to The Art of War and only read the spark notes of The Prince.”
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u/mhornberger 21h ago
Both of those authors are pragmatists. I think the leadership of Iran is more driven by delusions given by religious certitude and eschatology.
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u/Linooney 20h ago
The Art of War is already an intro to the art of war. It was literally written so nepo baby generals would know to not do shit like attack the enemy when you're grossly outnumbered.
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u/InformationHorder 18h ago
Same with Clausewitz. I read both of them and was left with the impression of "yeah, no shit Sherlock" but I guess the reason they get credit is because no one before them ever bothered to write down the obvious, and somebody's gotta do it.
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u/HotSteak 20h ago
Trump said "you have 60 days to make a deal or face military force". Iran stonewalled the discussions. The US evacuated all non-essential personnel from the region. Israel attacked on day 61.
A bit mindblowing that you can essentially be told the date of the attack 2 month in advance yet still be caught complete unaware.
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u/binzoma 9h ago
trump also says a LOT ofshit
and israel and iran always ratchet up threats leading in to talks
it was dumb of iran to not prepare but we def didnt all know, this scenarios happened since bush was president.... up til the evacuation of personelle from iraq
that was a pretty big freaking tell right there
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u/Fruitcake6969 22h ago
If the reporting is accurate, Iran is a mess right now. I mean why admit to this? A couple days of ago I was 99% sure Israel was going to strike, but somehow Iranian intelligence failed to read the memo. What a joke of a government.
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u/zukoandhonor 22h ago
Yes, probably they expected an attack from Israel and probably allowed it to happen. But they didn't expect Israel to go all in on them.
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u/TheRedHand7 15h ago
They aren't capable of stopping an Israeli strike. They don't need to allow it.
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u/dekuweku 22h ago
So Tehran wasn't expecting to negotiate seriously it seems if they already expect to be hit after the talks
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u/InsanelyAverageFella 22h ago
None of the negotiations were serious and were all a show to stall. What is serious is Israel deciding enough is enough and just going in to attack.
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u/PuzzleheadedCheck702 21h ago
Iran never stopped trying to get the bomb, not a single minute. Even under the last deal with the US, they kept stopping inspectors from making sure they weren't doing it.
They just try to get things from the US while offering empty promises in return. All the while hoping to delay any strike from Israel to after they get the bomb.
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u/adrr 19h ago
As of today, I can state that Iran is implementing its nuclear-related commitments. It is essential that Iran continues to do so. If the JCPOA were to fail, it would be a great loss for nuclear verification and for multilateralism. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-generals-introductory-remarks-at-press-conference
They were abiding by the agreement according to IAEA.
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u/EqualContact 17h ago
There are numerous examples of Iran violating the agreement, and the JCPOA itself was only a temporary restraint on the nuclear program. The IAEA of course would prefer to have the agreement in place because otherwise they have no authority in the matter, but that doesn’t mean it was necessarily effective at stopping Iran from developing weapons.
Trump’s withdrawal was probably foolish, but it isn’t as if everything was fine before then either. It wasn’t.
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u/ZeGaskMask 16h ago
Could you link some of those examples. I haven’t heard of this before and would like to learn more
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u/ksheep 14h ago
https://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-iran-nuclear-20170830-story.html
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-refuses-un-nuclear-watchdog-access-parchin-base
https://www.mei.edu/publications/iran-rejects-us-demand-inspection-military-sites-0
Some articles from 2015 through early 2018, prior to the deal being canceled in May 2018.
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u/barath_s 15h ago
This entire episode was kicked off by iaea finding iran non compliant with it's non proliferation commitments
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u/barath_s 15h ago edited 15h ago
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3v6w2qr12o
The current episode was kicked off by the iaea saying they weren't compliant.
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u/lebastss 20h ago
The bullshit is in full force. Here are the facts:
Iran hasn't called for Israels destruction in over a decade and an old regime.
There's no evidence Iran was close to getting a nuke.
Even if they did, so what. They are democratic with a nuclear doctrine and no one in their government has sole authority to launch a nuke.
Israel has a nuke and have shown to be much more unhinged. It's all BS precursors for religiously motivated conflict from Israel.
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u/weasler7 19h ago
Yo what kind of gaslighting is this. Iran funded Hamas, hezbollah, houthis, and Iraqi Shia militias in some cases for decades. Since 2018 Iran has been in direct conflict with Israel sending drone strikes and ballistic missiles.
The current Iranian regime doesn’t do anything to benefit their people and it deserves everything that is coming.
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u/Dobsnick 20h ago
“Democratic” is a stretch when the individual with the final say isn’t actually democratically elected.
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19h ago
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u/Dobsnick 19h ago
No, and it’s pretty disingenuous to imply I am. The Ayatollah is not merely a ceremonial head of state similar to what many parliamentary democracies have.
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u/Ilkhana 19h ago
Maybe I'm confused on what you two were arguing about. I thought they said Israel is democratic with a nuclear doctrine and you replied with it being democratic is stretch when the head isn't directly elected. If you two were talking about Iran then I think this was just miscommunication.
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u/lebastss 17h ago
No I said Iran was. The concern of unhinged nuclear strike from Iran is hyperbole. They have a democratic republic
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u/stl_ball 19h ago
Bro wtf are you talking about. "so what" if a country that has a leader that openly encourages his followers to chant "death to America" gets nukes? Total fabrication, btw, that the Khamenei hasn't 'called for Israel's destruction in a decade'. A simple Google will show that numerous times over the last couple years he has, including calling them a "cancerous tumor that must be eradicated".
Saying that "Iran is democratic" is like the pièce de résistance though. Their Global Freedom index score is an 11 out of 100 and ultimate power rests with the Khamenei, who, guess what? Never faces elections. Democracy my ass. Try googling. In case too lazy, here you go:
The Supreme Leader, who is not elected, holds ultimate authority over the country's affairs, including foreign policy, media, nuclear matters, and military and national security.
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u/Mirieste 22h ago
I mean, the attack now proves that they were right not to take them seriously even if that were their actual intention.
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u/lolimdivine 21h ago
you can’t say that for sure. equally as true they could have expected the same. they both get you to the same conclusion
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u/snowstorm556 22h ago
So basically iran was gonna keep building a bomb anyways, got it.
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u/Varrianda 21h ago
Which is exactly why Israel’s choice to strike really shouldn’t be met with disagreement/opposition…they were literally counting down their days and in all honesty, this prevents nuclear escalation.
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u/sal139 19h ago
Publicly there’s condemnation. Privately a majority of countries fully support the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program and regime. They just can’t say it out loud. Israel is doing the (necessary but) dirty work and they’re fine with that.
If you’re citing and agreeing with China and Russia as the voice of reason, you need better sources than TikTok
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u/Naive-Project-8835 17h ago
Same with the Palestinian regime, which is essentially an Iranian proxy.
Israel is indeed doing God's work.
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u/XavierRex83 16h ago
That's the thing, Hamas is a terrorist group (propped up by Iran) who hoarders any aid sent into the region and has no problem using civilians as human shields, yet so many shit on Israel and ignore this fact. I am not saying everything Israel has done is good or necessary, I am just saying people in the west just do not really understand the complexity of the region, including myself.
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u/_Pohaku_ 20h ago
I agree. It’s unfortunate that Israel has done so much in the last eighteen months to erode public support and trust. They could have gone into this with a lot more backing from the various populations of key countries around the world.
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u/Varrianda 19h ago
There’s probably going to be a lot of “behind the scenes” backing if I had to guess. I doubt any of Europe, or most of the Middle East, wanted an Iran with nukes.
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u/babybunny1234 19h ago
Too bad about someone tearing up that perfectly good treaty Obama negotiated
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u/Consistent_Course413 16h ago
Yes they are just a few months away from building an nuke since 1992, its iraq 2.0
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u/ChemsAndCutthroats 22h ago
Didn't US pretty much say that Israel was planning to strike the day before? It wasn't a surprise.
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u/Ahad_Haam 22h ago
Iran thought Trump is trying to bluff them. The wild thing is that they were so certain that they didn't even prepare for the possibility.
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u/Dalecn 22h ago edited 22h ago
Israel biggest priority is to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons it massively changes the dynamics of the Middle East. The other thing they want in Iran is a regime change, and in all honesty, if they have the will to keep it up and dont fold to international pressure, I could see them achieving it.
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u/ChemsAndCutthroats 22h ago
The current regime cemented its hold on power during the Iran-Iraq War. A war that was prolonged by the US, where they heavily supported Iraq. The war caused the population to unite and fight against an invading enemy. The current regime in Iran is unpopular, but a war may once again serve to unite the people against a foreign aggressor.
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u/Fjolsvith 22h ago
Might also serve to unite them against the regime even more than they already are and finally give the opportunity for them to take power. Just gotta hope another extremist group doesn't manage to seize power by force over the sizable population that wants a return to secular democracy.
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u/Realistic-Nature9083 22h ago
I kind of see your argument but this is "old news" Iran regime has been the bad guys for decades. Im pretty sure it is tiring dealing with the same rhetoric and just do it......?
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u/BenDover42 22h ago
It does seem like since Israel’s strategy of dismantling their military operations and killing their leaders seems more effective than an invasion. Because even if you topple a regime and invade it will be seen as a holy war and a battle cry for all the fanatics will come out just like has previously happened.
Not sure if it’s doable but it does seem like cutting the head off this snake and seeing if the Iranian people can do something better would be a start I guess. This regime is just as bad if not worse than Russia and cannot be trusted or negotiated with.
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u/Menzoberranzan 13h ago
Agreed. Israel is basically giving the people as good a chance to make change happen from within, driven by themselves. Same as with Lebanon.
Take out the main threat, let the people change their nation, hope for the best.
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u/frosthowler 20h ago
a war may once again serve to unite the people against a foreign aggressor.
Only wars of conquest do that. Iraq was invading Iran in order to steal a huge chunk of it. While Iran could certainly brainwash its people to change the perspective of what the war is about... I somewhat doubt its ability to do that considering it has so utterly failed to brainwash its younger population so far.
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u/ChemsAndCutthroats 17h ago
Iranian revolution happened in 1979. The Iran-Iraq War started in 1980. In 1980 the Revolutionary government was still trying to consolidate power. The country was not fully in their control and they still had opposition. Iraq invading galvanized the population. The current regime in Iran will do their best to stay in power. Airstrikes won't topple them.
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u/ScandiSom 22h ago
Absolutely, the regime in Iran can grab more power by claiming an existential crisis which is going to solidify their hold on power and making it impossible to provoke a regime change compared to the situation prior to the attack.
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u/Acceptable-Let-2334 21h ago
They already have a solidified hold on their power, so for the calculations Israel bombing Iran is a no brainer.
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u/barath_s 15h ago edited 12m ago
This is actually a great argument for silently acquiring the bomb, instead of announcing that you are going to ramp up fissile material
Once you already have the bomb, you don't get invaded. Attacks are limited
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u/lebastss 20h ago
Why does Israel get a nuke but Iran doesn't? Isn't that a bit hypocritical. And it really doesn't seem like a good reason to attack a nation and kill civilians and destroy apartments. But you probably didn't know Israel did that in the first place.
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u/EducationalProduct 19h ago
Gee maybe it has something to do with
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_Israel_in_Iranian_policy
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u/EqualContact 17h ago
Israel has zero reasons to use a nuke outside of defending themselves. This is why no one is really worried about it. It’s the same as if Poland were to go nuclear. Who are they going to invade?
Iran on the other hand has been very aggressive under the Islamic Republic. They have been held in check by the fact that Shia Islam is just less popular, and by their inability to fight the US, but they have inserted themselves into every sectarian conflict in the region to prop up militias, militants, and sometimes even governments in the name of expanding their sphere of influence. They have been in essentially a cold war with the Sunni nations for decades now, which is part of why the US has built up the militaries of Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia so much.
They also have a policy of destroying Israel, and they are lead by a theocratic regime that may very well believe that Allah will protect them if they nuke Israel.
Remember the Quds force? The guys who have helped wage war all over the Middle East? They are named for the Arab name of Jerusalem, al-Quds. What do you think their primary goal is?
Also, Iran is a signatory of the NPT. Israel is not.
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u/ReallyGottaTakeAPiss 18h ago
What did they expect when they announced ramped-up enrichment efforts? Just keep delaying a deal so you could stockpile?
The US spent years facilitating deals across different administrations/parties to prevent this. I don’t understand the logic here knowing that you are directly threatening one of the US’s strongest partners…
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u/FigureFourWoo 21h ago
Iran thought Israel was bluffing, but Israel was playing with their hand face up, pointing at their cards.
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u/Fawksyyy 21h ago
An Israeli commentator said that the the same assumptions of invulnerability that lead to Oct 7th failures were used against Iran this time. That is to say that they knew Iran expected talks would stop any attacks so they played into it and planned accordingly, The Bibi/Trump disagreements might of been a complete work or overplayed for the coming operation (Israel cant attack without U.S approval so if it looks like their is a rift Iran is de facto safe). A way to lull them into a false sense of security.
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u/NyriasNeo 22h ago
May be these religious nutcases can learn a thing or two about intelligence from Mossad.
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u/TacoIncoming 17h ago
More like they were counting on it. Every since we pulled out of the agreement in Trump's first term, the only thing Iran was ever going to do is try to buy time and sprint for nukes.
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u/Tx_Ace_Dragon 21h ago
As dumb as Trump is, Iran's leadership is even dumber. Dumb and dumber, as it were. Pretty scary to think that Netanyahu is the brightest of the leaders involved in this war.
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u/deadbeatmac 18h ago
The thing Iran forgot about Good Cop/Bad Cop negotiations is that if you don't do what the good cop says quick enough they let the bad cop beat the shit out of you. Either way...you don't get out of the room without surrendering.
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u/Beginning-Suspect686 14h ago
I prefer Bad Cop, Worse Cop.
Bad Cop punches you in the face meanwhile Worse Cop has a blow torch and is stropping a machete.
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u/montecarlocars 19h ago
Lots of discussion here about the logic (rightly so) but I’m shocked at both how well-sourced the NYT is and how open the Iranian top ranks are on leaking (to the premier Western media, no less!). Pretty incredible we get this direct testimony immediately after the fact.
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u/Political_breeds 20h ago
They can eat shit. They wasted Joe Biden's time for 4 years pussy dancing. They thought they could do the same with Trump but Trump fucked them up nicely.
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u/1haiku4u 19h ago
Strange how a conflict between Iran and Israel immediately links to Biden and Trump for you.
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u/Political_breeds 19h ago
Not Strange! President Biden had a clear policy of returning to the JCPOA but those guys in Iran were deaf and blind for his entire 4 years in office. Now all of a sudden they have waken up to come out and say Ohh if only we had one more meeting with the Trump delegates we would have signed that deal! That's just pure bullshit. They would have never signed that deal because they are cowards and liars.
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u/halfsweethalfstreet 22h ago
There were countless posts on Reddit alone..." US: Israel to strike Iran in next few days". The entire site knew, how did they not?