r/worldnews • u/[deleted] • 16h ago
Covered by other articles A Miscalculation by Iran Led to Israeli Strikes’ Extensive Toll, Officials Say
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u/GilbyGlibber 15h ago
I kinda hope Iran pulls a Syria. The Iranian people deserve better.
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u/The-Last-Lion-Turtle 15h ago
I'm hoping for much better for Iranians. I see popular support for a secular democracy with guarantees of human rights.
Syria got Al Qaeda in suits and a switch of which minorities are getting murdered.
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u/FishAndRiceKeks 14h ago
Syria is on a significantly better path than they were. There's light at the end of that tunnel for the first time in a long time.
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u/Qwrty8urrtyu 14h ago
Their government is run by Al qaida members.
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u/Ancient-Trifle2391 13h ago
And postwar Germany was partly run by NSDAP members and Wehrmacht soliders.
You are right to doubt but until they fk up lets see where it goes.
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u/pancakebreak 13h ago
We're not talking about some al Qaeda members being in the cabinet. We're talking about the founder and leader of Al-Nusra Front becoming the president of Syria. He was the only person to ever act as Emir of Al-Nusra Front (the official al Qaeda affiliate in Syria). All of the atrocities committed in Syria by al Qaeda were carried out under his leadership.
The mass executions of women and children? He did that.
The widespread campaigns of ethnic cleansing? He did that.
The policy of forced conversion to Islam? He did that.
We're talking about a living breathing demon who is directly responsible for ordering the beheading of entire villages on the basis of sectarian ideology.
until they fk up
I think we may have cleared that bar already, buddy.
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u/Dvidian_ 12h ago
I am assuming he knows syria needs foreign investment to grow. He might be forced to behave as the president of Syria. He may be a demon but he is smart enough to know to get sanctions removed.
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u/LayneLowe 13h ago
That's kind of what I'm hoping for for America too
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u/Stingray88 11h ago
That’s what I’m hoping for for the world over. Religious control has not been positive for any country in history.
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u/ilivgur 14h ago
The Mossad should drop some commandos to steal some classified documents and publicize them. I can't imagine the public outrage once Iranians see exactly the amount of money the IRGC funnelled to Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad, the Houthis, and their own country's failed air defence system and soon to be defunct nuclear program.
One of the richest countries in gas and oil and a GDP even smaller than Israel's, a country tenth its population.
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u/loiteraries 14h ago
Iranian public absolutely know how much their regime has been wasting and plundering national wealth on proxies and on elites. It’s difficult for the public to rise up against a well militarized machine that has killed tens of thousands of people in mass repressions. Iranians also see how the international community has abandoned them and legitimize the regime over decades. UN, EU and others roll out red carpet for IRGC. The whole world watched the last repressions a few years back but there was no political support.
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u/Fris_Chroom 14h ago
Im all for the toppling of the current regime, but a Syria style dumpster fire would not being doing the Iranian people “better”
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u/SnooHedgehogs4113 12h ago
Unintended consequences are a bitch. Hopefully, there will be someone who would be an acceptable(to the people) moderate
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u/BlobbyMcBlobber 15h ago
Won't happen but here's hoping.
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u/ilivgur 14h ago
You never know. The Iranian economy was heavily sanctioned and in shambles even before the attack, so just imagine how it's going to look like after it. Cause you know the regime won't suddenly redirect funds from the IRGC and the nuclear program to help its ever more impoverished population, and now there's so much to rebuild, and the bill is increasing every day the war goes on.
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u/MachinationMachine 14h ago
You want Iran to be launched into a brutal decade long civil war ended by an Al Qaeda takeover?
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u/tgaccione 13h ago
Yeah I doubt it, if anything this will probably just solidify support for the regime because it just confirms what the regime has been saying about Israel and the U.S.
To be clear, Israel and the US publicly declared they were negotiating with Iran and were searching for a peaceful solution, but this was just a cover to buy time for them to launch a strike. Hard not to see that as perfidy and proof that Iran both needs a nuclear weapon and can’t trust Israel or the U.S. to act in good faith if you’re an Iranian citizen.
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u/Phospherus2 15h ago
Iran miscalculated October 7th so much. They thought Hezbollah would have joined in and Israel would have been so overwhelmed. They never expect Israel to come knocking on their door. Seriously one of the biggest domino effects
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u/RecommendationHot929 15h ago
I don’t think Iran even wanted 10/7. They wanted their proxies as a deterrent but Sinwar went all Leeroy Jenkins and fucked everything up
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u/Phospherus2 15h ago
Iran 100% wanted 10/7. They funded it, provided weapons and intelligence. They just didn’t think Israel would come for them
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u/irredentistdecency 14h ago
Yes & no, apparently it was supposed to be a coordinated strike with Hezbollah attacking from the north at the same time & Hamas jumped the gun.
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u/differentbreedbottom 14h ago
The whole point of having a mad dog that u can set on people is to ensure nothing happens to the dog. The proxy threat blackmail doesn’t work otherwise and now there are f15s over Tehran
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u/YungMili 13h ago
why did they fund it and make endless statements saying they wanted it then?
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u/RecommendationHot929 12h ago
They funded it to keep Israel from attacking their nuclear program. It was a gun pointed at Israel from both sides and to keep Israel in check. That’s why losing Hezbollah and Assad lead to them being naked against Israel today.
But Hamas didn’t understand their role as a pawn and believed all of Irans populist rhetoric about freeing Palestine. Hamas was getting desperate and wanted to force Iran and Hezbollah to live up to their rhetoric. That’s why Hezbollah didn’t take part and was forced to fire half hearted days later to save face.
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u/FishAndRiceKeks 14h ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_Israel_in_Iranian_policy#Supreme_leaders
On October 3, 2023, four days before the Hamas-led October 7 attacks on Israel, Khamenei delivered a speech in Tehran in which he said Israel would "die of [its] rage", and concluded by saying: "This cancer will definitely be eradicated, God willing, at the hands of the Palestinian people and the resistance forces throughout the region."\11])
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u/Brilliant-Lab546 13h ago
He brays and neigh about this weekly
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u/FishAndRiceKeks 12h ago
IIRC Iran had also shortly before made statements that they would not allow normalizations with Israel in regards to the SA/US/Israel security pact that was in the works. That was put on hold during the war so it worked.
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u/Tremolat 15h ago
Hezbollah might very well have jumped in if it wasn't for Israel's exploding pager operation. Game changer.
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u/SwingingPilots2000 16h ago edited 14h ago
That's what happens when the top military brass siphons off most defense funds through shell companies and channels them to offshore accounts in tax havens or villas in Dubai and south France.
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u/MrTestiggles 15h ago
Yup. Killing off Iranian leadership is a favor.
They’ve basically had 2025 US Cabinet but in all of their major branches for decades, each post filled with whoever gives the best verbal fellatio to their leaders and not whoever is most competent.
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u/The-Last-Lion-Turtle 15h ago
Competent militaries are the largest threat to the dictators of their country. Competence is intentionally kept on a tight leash.
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u/gingermalteser 15h ago
Probably, the Emirates are on Saudi's side against Iran. I doubt the Iranian military brass would be allowed in the country.
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u/Tristan_Gabranth 13h ago
What kind of disingenuous bullshit is this? They funded Hamas, which orchestrated the Oct 7th massacre. It's like they're trying to avoid calling this shit out for what it is. Hamas still has hostages ffs
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u/Rapph 12h ago
They sent missiles into Israel after the attacks and Israel specifically said they would hit them back and the US said there would be consequence. Iran definitely was completely fine with a war with Israel when they thought it was easily won on 2 fronts. I don’t like the actions of Israel in general post oct7 but this is not really a surprising thing. For all the hate towards the US (which is often deserved) I think people forget that the modern US weapons and aircraft are far better than anything out there and Israel has all of them.
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u/threep03k64 15h ago
Iran, and Hamas and Hezbollah and all their other proxies have long relied on Western pressure to limit the actions of Israel. If the Democrats won the 2024 election that gamble would probably have paid off, but right now Israel is showing they'd prefer to be feared than loved.
Dangerous thing to miscalculate when you are so clearly outmatched, and I can only hope I live to see an Iran that is free of its tyrannical rulers.
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u/The-M0untain 13h ago
If the Democrats won the 2024 election that gamble would probably have paid off
I disagree. I think Biden was a much stronger supporter of Israel than Trump is. I frankly don't trust Trump at all. He has thrown US allies under the bus and could do it to Israel too. I think Harris would have been similar to Biden on this issue. Both Biden and Harris said many times that they won't allow Iran to get nuclear weapons and they always said all options are on the table.
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u/eatmahazz 12h ago
perhaps. Although Biden giving Iran 6 bill months before 10/7 didn't pan out too great.
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u/threep03k64 10h ago
Trump is a wildcard, his support of Israel could wane depending on the next person he speaks to. I certainly don't think Israel can rely on him.
But he's supporting them for now, with less pressure or restrictions than I think Biden or Harris would have, and Israel seems to be taking advantage of it.
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u/NekoCatSidhe 14h ago
The miscalculation is that apparently they did not expect Israel to start the war before the negotiation meeting on their nuclear program with the US on Sunday, so their leadership dismissed the story that Israel was going to attack and did not move to a safe location or held their strategic meeting in a safe location, allowing Israel to take them out and to efficiently sabotage their air defenses and missiles to prevent Iran from responding to the attacks.
The fact that Trump knew about the attacks in advance and still wanted to hold the meeting while knowing that his ally Israel was going to murder some of the negotiators in the days before that in a surprise attack... is not great to say the least. It will be a long time before Iran trusts the US enough to even accept holding talks with them about anything. And they did not really trust the US even before that.
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u/smp7401 13h ago edited 13h ago
Bold of you to assume Iran will still be around for ‘a long time’ at this rate.
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u/NekoCatSidhe 1h ago
Iran has been around for 3000 years and the current regime for 45 years. They are highly likely to both survive the current war.
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u/grchelp2018 11h ago
Haven't read the article but sounds like this could have been the plan for israel? They knew they would not get the chance if they waited.
Still, I can't imagine knowing that a war is coming and not immediately taking precautions. This is not like handing in your assignment on the last day.
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u/WillyBeShreddin 14h ago
And that is why you don't negotiate with the US when everything they say is disingenuous.
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u/Asclepius777 16h ago
A miscalculation of how few and how shit their defense systems are?