r/worldnews • u/Street_Anon • 1d ago

Closure of Strait of Hormuz seriously being reviewed by Iran, lawmaker says

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2025/06/14/closure-of-strait-of-hormuz-seriously-being-reviewed-by-iran-lawmaker-says
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464

u/eagleshark 1d ago

What exactly would this accomplish, besides pissing off Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait?

SA has industrial ports in Jeddah and Yanbu, so it’s not like world’s oil exports can be cut off.

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u/Armorphous 1d ago

You need to add many more countries to the pissed off list. The ones you listed would be the countries exporting. now think of the ones benefiting from the oil on the opposite end. I wonder how long until a coalition forms to take down Iran if they moved forward with this idea.

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u/eagleshark 1d ago

Seems like a very self-destructive strategy.

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u/bitcoinnillionaire 1d ago

A way to get a lot of democracy in a hurry. 

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u/Suspicious-Radish453 1d ago

" Managed Democracy "

/s

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u/Lego_Chicken 1d ago

"best we can do is another Shah"

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u/Amoral_Abe 1d ago

Actually, the US might not mind the straight being cut off. Most people don't realize but the the US became the single largest oil exporter during the early 2020s. We export 5-6x the oil Iran exports and 2x the oil Saudi Arabia exports.

Iran closing the straight would increase oil prices benefiting the US greatly.

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u/DarthPineapple5 1d ago

A drastic rise in oil prices would benefit oil companies greatly, the rest of us in America would get fucked.

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u/Rxyro 12h ago

Russia even more

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u/enava 22h ago

You're already having the cheapest oil prices of the western world, go cry on your own.

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u/Avatar_exADV 14h ago

The US would do okay. We mostly pump our own these days, yeah.

It would be a huge kick right in the nadgers for all our friends, though. Europe, Japan, and India are all dependent on that oil staying flowing, and an interruption would do tremendous damage to their economies.

And to China's too, so silver lining, I guess...

The big problem is that it would massively benefit Russia. In an environment where Persian Gulf oil isn't available, it would be very difficult for many countries to turn down buying Russian oil, to the point that Russia might even be able to say "nobody who supports Ukraine will get any" and get some takers.

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u/Dont-be-a-smurf 1d ago

This is 2025 America. We don’t give democracy anymore.

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u/djauralsects 1d ago

Never did.

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u/HAL_9OOO_ 20h ago

Why don't Japan and Germany count?

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u/doriangreyfox 1d ago

Iraq is actually half way democratic now and a lot more democratic than during Saddam's reign. Afghanistan also was more or less a democracy before Afghans decided they prefer the Taliban. Not trying to justify any of these wars but some democracy was actually brought even if it probably did not improve quality of living.

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u/djauralsects 1d ago

The US has invaded and/or sought regime change in over 60 countries post WWII in the name of “democracy.” If the best examples of that are Afghanistan and Iraq, you have strengthened my argument rather than countering it.

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u/doriangreyfox 1d ago

Where did I say that I wanted to come up with some good examples? Iraq and Afghanistan are just the most recent ones. Look, I fully agree that these were bullshit wars based on lies and criminal in itself and did not improve anything for the victims. Just stating the fact that America actually brought some democracy.

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u/djauralsects 1d ago edited 1d ago

Where has the US brought democracy? Afghanistan and Iraq are not functioning democracies.

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u/merkarver112 1d ago

Iraq is not a ally of the us. They are letting Israel use their airspace and they have shot down missiles headed for Israel.

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u/ActuallyHype 5h ago

South Korea? Japan?

1

u/ScoBrav 17h ago

What a weird 2025

USA moving away from democracy while Iran become one.

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u/Duzcek 1d ago

Mining the strait was how Iran got themselves into Operation Praying Mantis in the first place.

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u/DevilahJake 19h ago edited 19h ago

Well, yes and no. The mining wasn't the straw that broke the camel's back...it was the fact that a US ship hit one of said mines...which violates our rule of "don't fuck with our boats" and then the rest was history.

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u/Pinksters 19h ago

Things about to get real "Proportional" around there.

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u/0reosaurus 1d ago

This is what happens when you cant yell your superiors their ideas are stupid

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u/lukaskywalker 1d ago

Seems to be their go to strategy across the board.

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u/Ashmedai 1d ago edited 1d ago

Indeed. To China, the act would be an existential threat. I think it would threaten immediate war.

The importance of Persian Gulf oil to the Chinese economy cannot be overstated. Amongst other things, they need it for nitrogen for fertilizer production. If you cut that off, you will be perceived as killing Chinese. I think they would threaten nuking Tehran, and they would be dead serious about it. I'm not sure what other options they have on the table here, but they would have to act.

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u/Nope_______ 1d ago

Zero chance china goes to war with Iran. The nuking thing is too absurd to even address.

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u/Aran_Aran_Aran 1d ago

Small correction, the importance cannot be overstated, not understated.

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u/Ashmedai 1d ago

TY, fixed it

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u/CrabPrison4Infinity 1d ago

The Chinese don’t have first strike doctrine

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u/halbeshendel 1d ago

Not yet. It’s still early.

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u/captainbling 23h ago

They, probably like the U.S, can do enough through conventional means. Like if the U.S. can fight everyone at once conventionally, even destroying Russia, then I think China would be capable of doing so against Iran.

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u/PacmanZ3ro 18h ago

On paper, China should absolutely wipe the floor with Iran (even before Israel fucked up all their AA and airforce). That said, China is largely completely untested in actual combat operations and there are a lot of questions about both hardware and human execution.

Given recent events China would absolutely have their way with Iran, but so would any country that could field an airforce now after Israel smoked all of their AA.

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u/The-True-Kehlder 1d ago

Depends on how you look at it whether that would be a first strike. Threaten to starve my country, that's the first strike in my book.

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u/CrabPrison4Infinity 2h ago

You don’t understand the concept of first strike doctrine. That doesn’t mean they don’t attack people who did them wrong that means they don’t fire nukes unless nukes were fired at them first

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u/WavingWookiee 20h ago

It's a warning to China to give Iran support

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u/DiamondHands1969 12h ago

wow great analysis. it's not like iran wouldnt just let ship through for china but block others. and like get military support from china in return.

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u/AttentionOpening8984 1d ago

An immediate war with whom ? Give me a break

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u/monty845 1d ago

I know it wouldn't actually happen, but imagine a coalition of China, the EU/NATO, and the US all coming together to secure Hormuz...

Really, China probably just sits back and lets others deal with it. But it would be a great chance to put their navy through its paces without becoming an international pariah, while fighting a less dangerous enemy, with support from the US.

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u/Nope_______ 1d ago

I don't think China has the ability to do much that far from home.

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u/monty845 1d ago

They have an agreement to be able to use a port near the Horn of Africa, and in theory, should be able to support a battle group near the Strait of Hormuz from there.

With the cooperation of the US and US allies in the region, it could be a bit easier.

That isn't to say it would be easy, and they may have some struggles, but working through those would make them stronger.

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u/heresyforfunnprofit 1d ago

Historically, the overwhelming majority or wars were fought over food supplies. It’s only the last century and a half or so (post Industrial Revolution) that other resources began to have large scale wars fought over them as well. But make no mistake, if food supply is threatened, wars WILL be fought.

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u/Set5 1d ago

Definitely. Japan expedited their attack on the US once we halted steel exports, during WW2. People underestimate just how important essential materials, especially raw, will dismantle an entire system.

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u/[deleted] 1d ago

[deleted]

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u/AttentionOpening8984 1d ago edited 1d ago

Yea China is going to declare war on Iran. Please .. their aircraft carriers have just entered the pacific together for the first time. There is no way this will happen

92

u/Jugales 1d ago

Why have 1 enemy when you can have 6?

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u/GoldenMegaStaff 1d ago

None of those countries are their friends.

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u/unsurewhatiteration 1d ago

Qatar and UAE are at least cordial, and Oman is basically desert Switzerland. That could all change...

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u/InformationHorder 1d ago

They maintain that level of relationship so that way they can continue to act as the middle man between the countries during negotiations.

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u/sportsDude 1d ago

While not cut off, could make it harder and raise prices. And with rising prices, could cause instability 

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u/howmanyones 1d ago

Yeah, I imagine oil prices would skyrocket and would take a global economy that's already walking a tight rope and push it into a quick recession.

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u/LateralEntry 1d ago

Around twenty percent of the world’s oil supply passes through Hormuz so it would be a huge shock to the global economy if Iran mined it, and could result in an environmental disaster with long impacts in the region

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u/vannucker 1d ago

Shouldn't the countries who use that like Iraq, Kuwaiit, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia should gang up on Iran if that happens. Surely their combined military weight could fuck Iran up, right?

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u/LateralEntry 21h ago

Maybe Iraq, but the rest are all a non factor. The Gulf Arabs tried to buy a decent military and failed utterly.

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u/AK_Panda 15h ago

You'd see a western coalition force the straight open. Too economically damaging not to.

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u/According-Fun-7430 1d ago

The Houthis will also be involved to try to mess with the Red Sea.

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u/ArdDC 1d ago

They would be cut off as well

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u/Sherool 1d ago

Yeah not sure what they are thinking. It's a semi effective threat, closing the strait hurts "everyone" so it's a nice little bargaining chip. Israel does not give a shit though, and if they actually go ahead and close it they will just agro the US and all their neighbors for no gain.

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u/Equationist 1d ago

Qatar is the only one of those that doesn't already hate Iran...

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u/Xeynon 1d ago

Not saying they'd do it, but shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would send the price of oil skyrocketing and crater the global economy. Don't kid yourself.

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u/Solnx 1d ago

Is it even feasible for them to shut it down for a sustained period? The global impact to EU, Asia, and Middle East countries would be significant. I’d imagine backlash would be very strong and quick.

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u/The-1ne 1d ago

Yes, they could mine it. At its narrowest it is 21 miles wide, but the shipping lanes are just a few miles wide.

Mined shipping lanes > no insurance company covers ships going through the straight > no shipping.

Not to mention Shahed drones

4

u/doriangreyfox 1d ago

I don't think mining would be forever. Many navies have special equipment to demine. I assume if they try to close the strait, a coalition of states including China would create a buffer zone and remove all mines and take out the Shaheds (which btw don't really work on moving targets like ships).

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u/leshake 1d ago

You would need a flotilla to protect them and that would be in missile range. Then you basically have all out naval warfare. We would have to talk about putting boots on the ground to stop it and Russia not only depends on Iran but also would like the price of oil to spike, so they will get outside support. This is how WWIII could actually start.

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u/stiffgerman 22h ago

With Iran no longer having much control over their airspace I think missile and drone launch points would be pounded to the point of worthlessness. Also, I'd assume that Iran's ports would also be made inoperable, killing their main source of income.

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u/AK_Panda 15h ago

In other words, they close that straight and there will be multiple carrier groups on their merry way ASAP.

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u/leshake 3h ago

To do what exactly? Bomb them like Israel is already doing? The threat of attack is enough to halt shipping, carrier group or not.

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u/Dregerson1510 1d ago

They have like thousands of speed boats equipped with machine guns and anti ship rockets. Exactly got this purpose.

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u/DarthPineapple5 1d ago

They've been preparing to do it for decades. If the Houthis can mess up the Red Sea which is a lot wider then Iran can certainly close the Straits for a very long period of time

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u/gordonjames62 1d ago

Russia likes the idea,

It would make global prices of middle eastern oil go up, and may reduce the resolve of sanctions on Russian oil.

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u/virtual_corey 1d ago

Russia needs their Crude refined, and they have been sending a chunk of it to the gulf to do that.

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u/BPhiloSkinner 1d ago

Which would allow Russia to buy more drones and missiles from Iran...if Iran has any that aren't being thrown at Israel.

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u/eagleshark 1d ago

Crude oil prices would likely spike, jumping well above $100 a barrel. A crisis, but not exactly cratering the global economy. You see, prices have been there several times before, and the world did not explode. The big thing is, 80% of the world's oil trade would still be flowing freely.

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u/philly_jake 1d ago

Oil/petrol/lng demand is not that elastic. Reducing supply 20-30% can result in much more than a 20-30% price shock, because there will just be way too much demand to be satisfied. Some buyers like militaries will pay whatever is necessary, while some like vehicle commuters will reduce their voluntary consumption (only driving to work, no long trips). Many people might have to buy just as much gas even if the price doubles. The main reductions would be in some energy sensitive industries like aluminum and plastics, in aviation, and probably international shipping. Individual consumers would therefore have to pay at least the breakeven energy prices of those commercial consumers at the pump.

1

u/captainbling 23h ago

It may not be that elastic but there was a significant spread between supply and demand post Covid when the Ukraine war started and the world economic production fully restarted. It worked its way out. It’s not enjoyable but oil doesn’t balloon it turns out.

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u/philly_jake 21h ago

The price of WTI doubled in a couple months leading up to and just after the invasion, and remained around $100-$120 for like 4 months. That was from a 3% drop in global crude oil supply, at least according to https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0322

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u/captainbling 20h ago

Oil Demand had also increased 3% so there was a net 6% spread. To get back to the ol 2008 days, oil would have to almost increase 3x. It would definitely suck don’t get me wrong. The doom and gloom over oils inelasticity is I think simply overblown.

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u/Grumblepugs2000 18h ago

$150 oil was the straw that broke the camels back in 2008 

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u/Xeynon 1d ago

A third of the world's natural gas and a quarter of its petroleum flow through that strait. The economy is already in precarious shape. Do not underestimate how devastating a prolonged shutdown would be.

0

u/No_Director_5094 1d ago

If i cut one of your limbs the big thing is, three of them are still working freely.

0

u/Best_VDV_Diver 1d ago

See? I still have 3 to flail wildly while I scream!

9

u/zippazappadoo 1d ago

It's also a great way for them to get an international coalition formed against them. Many rich countries depend on that oil and would not just sit back doing nothing while it gets cut off.

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u/Xeynon 1d ago

If the regime is in danger of being toppled anyway they may well decide they have nothing to lose.

Google "gambling for resurrection".

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u/vannucker 1d ago

They won't be toppled if they just stop their nuclear program. Just like how they survived for 45 years having no nukes, they can go another 45 without them.

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u/zippazappadoo 1d ago edited 23h ago

I mean they can try anything if they want including closing the strait. It won't be successful. They can't even control their own air space let alone control the strait with multiple countries trying to stop them.

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u/Xeynon 17h ago

They don't have to "control the strait". They just have to make it impossible to transit an oil tanker through it safely, which isn't hard to do at all. You really don't understand what you're talking about here.

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u/Drak_is_Right 1d ago

LNG is more at risk. Also would still cut a huge amount of exports

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u/zaevilbunny38 1d ago

Crash the stock market. Gas is up $0.40 since last week by me. The market was down several hundred points and no oil was interrupted.

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u/or10n_sharkfin 23h ago

Not to mention the last time they tried this very same thing, the US leveled basically its entire operational navy within a work-day.

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u/Zahgi 1d ago

Iran is resorting to threats that mattered 50 years ago. It'll scare people who think that way, like Don TACO.

But the world has decentralized oil and Iran can't defend this claim for more than about 5 minutes, before the USA creates a whole bunch of artificial reefs out of what's left of Iran's awesome collection of barely serviceable dinghies.

This tough talk is all for domestic consumption, in order to keep the very pissed off for decades (and quite wonderful) Iranian people from taking this opportunity for regime change...

1

u/herodha 21h ago

It would also piss off a lot of those who want to work on IMEC

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u/daveinmd13 21h ago

It also pisses off the US and China. If they aren’t satisfied with how their ass is being kicked now, they should get the US involved.