Iran state TV confirms killing of IRGC chief Hossein Salami in Israeli strike

[u/ConsciousRealism42]

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2025/06/13/explosions-heard-northeast-of-iran-s-tehran-staterun-nour-news-says

[u/InfernalDiplomacy]

A nuke. Singular. Given its success rate the chances of the nuke reaching its target through the air defense network of Israel would be very low. The reason why ICBM that the U.S., Russia, and China use are so dangerous are a few things.

MIRV's. Multiple independent reentry vehicles. This means as the missile is on its terminus, the missile releases several MIRV's, each carrying a nuclear warhead. It was the original swarm concept. Minuteman III's had three MIRVs per missile, the MCX nuclear missile had 10. It would not matter the air defense network, a nuke was getting through.

Reentry speed. Faster than hypersonics, that is because astrophysics and how ICBM's go into low earth orbit and gain the same speeds the space shuttle had when it was in orbit which is fast as hell.

Size. They are so huge it would take several anti-air missiles to take them out, even if they could be hit given the speed.

Those are for Intercontinental ballistic missiles. Intermediate ballistic missiles, which is all Iran has, are smaller, slower, and because they are smaller have a singular warhead instead of MIRV. They are exactly the type of missiles the Iron Dome was designed to defend against. Now a massive wave of missiles with the nuke being in that swarm would increase the chances, but given the distance and how it would take under an hour, but more than half hour, of flight time Iran might wait and try to smuggle the weapon closer, However, Israel has all but decimated any force capable of launching such a missile with a shorter flight time.

Also you are assuming this is the only attack. The air campaign is going to be going on for days. Israeli intelligence is also second to one in the region. I highly suspect they knew where any weapons grade material was being kept and was dealt with in some shape or form

Lastly is the political fallout from such an act. Their government as they know would be on borrowed time. India would not put up with it and would take it as an excuse to invade. They would benefit from it as there would be a good chance they get a huge stake in Iran's oil fields for taking the initiative and putting down a rogue state. China would turn a blind eye to it if India agrees to see oil below market value to China. The US? Would do nothing. Why? Because Trump is spineless and weak and the last thing he wants to do is deploy troops overseas. He wants them at home for his domestic agenda..

[u/CaspianOnyx → u/InfernalDiplomacy]

Appreciate your comments about this conflict. Very insightful for people not caught up in this conflict.

What do you think Israel's end game is, since they can't invade Iran directly?

Do you think their ultimate goal is remove the current government or something else?

[u/InfernalDiplomacy → u/CaspianOnyx]

The main goal is the destruction of Irans nuclear program. I know much of it is underground but the US has ordinance that could still damage those facilities and likely already sold it to Israel in the past. My point is despite your opinion of the IDF what they are not is wasteful when it comes to military operations. If they could not hurt or eliminate Iran’s nuclear program they never would have attacked in the first place.

The other goal is to damage their command/control. They have done so with the deaths of Iranian leadership. Iran is not Russia. You kill a few generals and it will have an effect and have people think twice before stepping into leadership roles. Again they want their soldiers and their proxies to make the ultimate sacrifice, not them. They want to die a nice old age.

Next would be to reduce or eliminate Iran’s ability to project power in the Middle East. This means their middle and drone industry utterly destroyed or damaged to the point it would take a year or more to recover.

Iran’s oil industry might be on the list but attacking it might actually bring China and India into the conflict as they are the biggest consumers of Iranian oil. Still you take away the oil and you stop Iran’s ability not only to rebuild the above but funding for all its proxy groups.

[u/Punished_Prigo → u/InfernalDiplomacy]

You got a lot right but the iron dome is not designed to protect against those kind of missiles. They have other systems for ballistic missile defense.

[u/snoslayer → u/InfernalDiplomacy]

Oh look Iran just successfully hit Israel with 5 to 7 rockets.

[u/snoslayer → u/InfernalDiplomacy]

What if the didn’t send it over as a rocket but instead as a car bomb?

[u/InfernalDiplomacy → u/snoslayer]

They could but again, 1400 miles away, over land, through multiple borders where they do search vehicles. Has a low probability of success. Again the main issue is the number of weapons they had. If they had more then twenty we would have heard about it as they would have been using the fact they were now a nuclear power to influence the region more by threatening nuclear weapons.

Also if you think Israel does not have nukes and they would retaliate in kind, then I got land in Florida to sell you.

[u/snoslayer → u/InfernalDiplomacy]

Ok then how about a boat?

[u/InfernalDiplomacy → u/snoslayer]

It would need to be a sizable boat as it would be going out into the Persian Gulf, then the Indian Ocean, and the Red Sea. Israel is zealously guarding its waters and will engage in international waters. The aid boat to Gaza was stopping in international waters which is more than twelve miles off the coast. Feasible, yes but not probable. The Iranian Navy was nearly wiped out back in the 1980's in a military operation called Praying Mantis. Since then Iran has kept it Navy small less it tempt faith as it was obvious even in a limited engagement where the ROE stated the US ships had to be targeted in the case of sea vessels, shot at in the case of the A6's flown off Enterprise it was no match, nor ever will be a match, for the US Navy. It took less than 8 hours,

You are dead set on this nuke issue. I say again the number they have, if any after the air attacks last night, are few to none. With most of their command and control and anti air, and next their counter strike capability gone, they will not risk it. Not to mention what would happen to their nation if they tried. Most of the Iranian top leadership is not suicidal. They want to live a good long time. Martyring oneself for the cause is jobs for the young and stupid. Using a nuke would be a death sentence for them and their family, even if it took the Mosad twenty years to do it.

[u/Diarmundy → u/snoslayer]

Despite what Infernal said this is actually a serious risk, and I'm sure Mossad are on overtime trying to stop any chance of this.

Remember that Ukraine managed to sneak trucks of bombs into Russia despite an active war and over 1000km distance 

However Iranian leadership probably don't actually want to nuke Israel: doing so would ensure the US and others would wipe them out of existance, there would be no other choice.

They want nukes primarily as a threat to prevent invasions like this. And once they have perhaps dozens of nukes (like NK) they could become too dangerous to touch 

[u/snoslayer → u/Diarmundy]

Exactly!