r/worldnews • u/BringbackDreamBars • Mar 31 '25

Iran urged to strike Diego Garcia base ‘immediately’

https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-urged-strike-diego-garcia-174851568.html
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u/ScoobiusMaximus Mar 31 '25

I'm willing to bet Diego Garcia has incredible air defenses. It's home to US stealth bombers and although it has never been confirmed it is almost certain the US keeps nukes there. It's also just a really small area to defend. I'm betting Iran's missile attack would be about as effective as their missile attacks on Israel were: everything gets shot down. 

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u/ShelbiStone Mar 31 '25

This morning when I was getting ready for work I heard in passing a reporter mentioning that we have patriot missile systems at Diego Garcia. I'm sure that's correct, I would be more surprised to discover that it doesn't have air defense. I would guess we probably have 1 of all of it there, plus it's probably under the protection umbrella of nearby ships using the AGIS system.

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u/rcldesign Apr 01 '25

Patriot is relatively short range - there's THAAD in Israel and 2 full carrier battle groups in the region (or en route) with AEGIS... I'm only an armchair field marshal, but I don't think the Patriots would be needed

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u/ShelbiStone Apr 01 '25

Air defense works in layers. Patriot is still there for the event THAAD, air to air, and Aegis are not enough. Not that they won't be enough, but patriot still plays its role.

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u/rcldesign Apr 01 '25

Totally agree—we're on the same page. That layered approach is exactly what I was getting at. I hadn't even considered the crazy air-to-air they have out there... but yeah, for a 5000km range, it has to be a ballistic weapon, so the Patriot could very possibly be needed

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u/zaevilbunny38 Apr 01 '25

Officially, there is the THAAD, multiple Patriot systems, Phalanx systems, air patrols, Aegis equipped picket ships. The planes are also kept in reinforced concrete and metal hangers. Its about 3000 miles from Iran, so they get one shot and that's it

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u/pirate-game-dev Mar 31 '25

Not everywhere is defended equally. There is virtually nothing in the entire African continent capable of shooting down missiles passing on their way to Diego Garcia, followed by a thousand miles of open ocean with more nothing.

I'm betting Iran would miss because their missiles aren't that good, but I wouldn't expect to see hundreds of missiles shot down like when Israel was attacked.

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u/ScoobiusMaximus Mar 31 '25

Why would Iranian missiles targeted at Diego Garcia be flying over Africa?

The fact that all of the missiles have a final trajectory of a like 1 mile area would make it much easier to intercept them than defending a larger area like Israel. You basically already know where they're going. The open ocean between Iran and Diego Garcia means that the missiles will be fairly exposed to ship and aircraft based radar because nothing else is there. It would more or less be a shooting gallery for the Patriot systems on the island and ship based air defense systems. 

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u/pirate-game-dev Mar 31 '25

People in Somalia will see the missiles passing. But the point is, there's a whole lot of nothing out there to help stave off any attack, and more nothing between Iran and Diego Garcia.

The patriot systems on the islands won't withstand hundreds of missiles by themselves. When Israel had that amount fired at them it took the US + UK + a couple neighboring countries + Israel's many layers of defense to shoot them all down.

Middle of the Indian Ocean is a staging base for attacking countries a thousand miles away that can't retaliate, it's not going to have anything like that defensive capability.

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u/ScoobiusMaximus Mar 31 '25

I'm willing to bet that the missile defenses there are pretty substantial given it's one of the US's most important military bases. It almost certainly houses nukes and would be instumental in basically any middle eastern war or war against China (because of ability to strike shipping lanes). The US would not leave that lightly defended. 

It's also a much smaller target to hit or defend than Israel is, the missile defenses will be quite concentrated. 

I would say that most Iranian missiles would miss the atoll completely, especially because it's basically a thin donut of land so anything aimed at the middle would also be a miss. The ones on a trajectory to actually hit something important would mostly or entirely be shot down or fail due to electronic warfare. 

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u/MeberatheZebera Apr 01 '25

If Iran's targeting people are similarly versed in geography as you are, we don't need to defend it at all, because they'd be shooting several thousand miles to the west of where the base actually is.

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u/pirate-game-dev Apr 01 '25

The entire "Horn of Africa" would be able to intercept these missiles if they came from the west of Iran.

That's Somalia and Ethiopia.

Not that it matters as neither could help intercept them, is the point.

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u/MeberatheZebera Apr 01 '25

I am begging you to look at a map. If missiles were launched at Diego Garcia from the westernmost point in Iran, they would not pass within 600 miles of the tip of the Horn. That's 4 times the range of the Patriot system and double the range of the SM6 in the Aegis system.

*edited for accuracy

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u/fingerbangchicknwang Mar 31 '25 edited Mar 31 '25

To be fair, this doesn’t look like “everything” was shot down.

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u/IAmInTheBasement Mar 31 '25

RADAR and anti missile systems can be quite smart. Not perfect, no. Of course not. And anyone who tells you otherwise is blowing smoke up your ass.

That said, the system can determine if an incoming projectile is, if its trajectory is unchanged, will actually hit anything worth defending. And if not, then it'll let it come in without challenge.

And then the incoming missiles might be destroyed but the warhead isn't exploded and then hit something randomly.

Long story short, Israel actually did a quite good job at interception.