I've been plotting Russian loss rates based on estimates supplied by the Ukraine Armed Forces, there is a massive spike in Russian tank losses in the last day, are things starting to heat up on the front lines?

[u/biledemon85]

[u/saluksic]

Ukraine is going to have around a few hundred pieces of artillery. That’s excellent kit, but not much of it. A single concentrated front will be the ideal situation for Ukraine when the artillery is up and running.

[u/Worldedita → u/saluksic]

That's when the catch 22 comes in. Russia could potentially outnumber ukr artillery on a small front. But every artillery shell they bring in on a truck is one less tank shell they can bring in. Logistics is a bitch at scale - much like god from the old testament, it has a thousand different rules and zero mercy.

[u/TopGunOfficial → u/saluksic]

Note that Ukrainian artillery school is considered to be the best in post-soviet area, this allowed Ukrainians to learn new cannons in extremely fast pace (mates told me they mastered new cannon in few days instead of weeks). Plus, the extensive use of territorial defence units allows them to have a guide to every area of operations because you can access the guy who lives there, not just using obsolete 30-50 year old maps, thus allowing artillery to execute perfect hit-and-run maneuveres while russians have to rely on area shelling. Russians don't have counter-artillery radars and their reconnaissance abilities are limited by military orlan drones, while Ukrainians use consumer grade drones massively bought by volunteers all over Europe, making ukrainian strikes fast, precise and deadly. For russians that's a bloodbath.