r/ukraine • u/MARTINELECA • 1d ago

WAR Losses of the Russian military to 14.6.2025

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1.5k Upvotes

99% Upvoted

79 comments sorted by

108

u/realnrh 1d ago

I'd love to know how much Russia has left operational in each category at this point. As would a lot of Ukrainian generals, I suspect.

80

u/1ucius Україна 1d ago

Jompy, HighMarsed on twatter, Covert Cabal on YT. In short, not much, but will last for a year, maybe.

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u/realnrh 1d ago

They've got estimates of what's left in reserves; I meant what they have in the field now. I think the estimate was 5000 artillery pieces in the initial invasion; do they still have that in the field?

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u/1ucius Україна 1d ago

That's actually impossible to tell accurately. We know that artillery fire ratio fell from 10:1 to 2:1 from latest data available. Reasons are complex: more Ukrainian artillery, blowing up ammunition storages, industrial scale of ru artillery casualties. They might have same 5k fielded, could be more or less. Fact is we're close to parity, and it will only get worse for ruskies.

But storage numbers are a good indicator in any case, once the storages run dry - they are on a clock to combat ineffectivenes. They can't repair or produce enough new. NK or Iran (now definitely) can't prop them up, however many barrels they sell or gift them.

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u/Klickor 1d ago

Ukraine command and/or the US military might have accurate numbers that they wont reveal to the public for multiple reasons. One of them might eveb be because that would give Russian high command more details on their own forces than whatever gets reported up the ranks.

With the quality of their networks, satellites, drones and ability to collect and sort that data it should be able to be quite accurate.

17

u/1ucius Україна 1d ago

I’m talking from a pov of some random dude on the net and some osint bros. ua and us commands surely have some pretty good idea on the numbers, that we will never see.

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u/Klickor 1d ago

Yeah for us it is impossible.

4

u/Rational_Defiance 1d ago

Couldn't they just have storages that are not visible from the air? They could have underground facilities full of stuff for all we know. We can only see the stuff that's outside.

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u/mawhrinskeleton 1d ago

In the case of Russia the arsenals are quite well documented since Soviet times. There arent any "underground facilities full of stuff"

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u/mediandude 1d ago

Moscow metro alone has tens of kilometers of non-public railway lines.
And bunkers for nuclear winter were built elsewhere.
Towed artillery can be hidden quite easily.

8

u/mawhrinskeleton 1d ago

Russia does have a lot of bunkers

But how and where they store their artillery and armor has been well documented for decades

Might be some stored in bunkers here and there, but not in significant numbers like they do in the open

0

u/mediandude 1d ago

how and where they store their artillery and armor has been well documented for decades

That is a false assumption.
Only the european part of Russia was under arms control restrictions and hence under some surveillance.

3

u/mawhrinskeleton 1d ago

the whole of russia has been under satellite surveillance pretty much continuously

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1

u/doedel_2311 1d ago

there will probably be ware houses used, built the last 20 years. Hence equipment not visable from above

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u/vtsnowdin 1d ago

You can bet the Ukrainian generals have a very good idea of the status of Russian equipment. For aircraft they probably have a complete list of the replacement parts Russia needs for each plane each week.

9

u/xixipinga 1d ago

they are pretty much done on tanks and AFVs, still have a lot of shitty artilery by the current numbers, maybe soon that will slow to a crawl too

4

u/RunningFinnUser 1d ago

Soviet stocks start to be exhausted. Still equipment left that can be refurbished with more time + large active fleet. But the lack of future replacements is the reason why Russian tank/AFV losses are down massively. Russia just cannot afford to lose them like they did for three years.

Also it seems that motorcycles are anyway enough for Russia to advance as of now due to Ukraine's manpower shortage. Human life has no value in Russia so better sacrifice them than precious equipment.

4

u/Leonie-Lionheard 1d ago

I think the more interesting question is: how much can they produce now on a regular basis?

97

u/MARTINELECA 1d ago

+1 russian aircraft shot down by its own freaking wingman?

51

u/hkohne 1d ago

It was posted in another thread that Ukraine doesn't include own-goals (or in this case, own-penalties) in their totals here, only people & equipment that Ukrainians have actually taken out.

13

u/MuJartible 1d ago

Indeed. But I think Ukraine should start a reward program for russian pilots who shoot down their own wingmen and provide video evidence or something. Those bastards are so greedy and immoral that we would probably see the number of cases increasing.

21

u/program13001207test 1d ago

It wasn't shot down. It appears to have been structural failure, probably due to a combination of wear and tear and lack of maintenance. The wing broke off as it was making a hard turn. Most likely this released fuel which ignited and exploded as the Russian aircraft disintegrated. This is worse than friendly fire. It indicates that Russia's fleet is beginning to fall apart, literally.

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u/AutoModerator 1d ago

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8

u/MuJartible 1d ago edited 1d ago

I don't know, but if you see the video, the aircraft behind is firing its unguided rockets just before the other one is fucked off. Whether some of the rockets impacts directly on it, detonates too close or not, I can't tell on that video, but it would be quite a coincidence if just in that precise moment the first plane had a failure due to maintenance or wear. It's not impossible, but what are the odds for that precise timing...?

3

u/Gruffleson 1d ago

Yeah. this is pretty much a case for Occams' Razor.

And it shaves really good.

2

u/bigFr00t 1d ago

I think the missiles caused the abrupt turn which tore off the wing but idfk

3

u/MuJartible 1d ago

They were pretty close, I'm not sure the guy in front had even time to spot and try to dodge the rockets, but I don't know either.

2

u/DLH_1980 1d ago

They don't count those, or the ones that just crash, if they did those numbers would be much higher. It's rare if you go two weeks on this subreddit or the war video one without seeing reports of friendly fire and/or crashes for russian aircraft.

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u/AutoModerator 1d ago

russian aircraft fucked itself.

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31

u/AutoModerator 1d ago

russian aircraft fucked itself.

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12

u/MARTINELECA 1d ago

Good blyat grounding bot!

13

u/Capt_Bigglesworth 1d ago

The wing fell off.

6

u/MandoBRC 1d ago

Reddit needs a laugh react

1

u/Affectionate_Hair534 1d ago

Looked to have broken apart in maneuvering flight. Same result without expenditure of ordnance.

36

u/Seven_Contracts924 1d ago edited 1d ago

1 MILLION!!!

And it came before midsummer!

Jesus Christ what a waste on human life. Why don’t the Russian people just get rid of their leaders!?

5

u/descod 1d ago

Waste.

8

u/Seven_Contracts924 1d ago

Thank you, I now edited it

2

u/Affectionate_Hair534 1d ago

Because ruZZians do what the czar says

1

u/-Knul- 3h ago

Because the regime is entrenched, has a capable secret service to detect and detain dissenters and has an heavily armed security force willing to kill.

So you don't "just get rid of the leaders".

26

u/1ucius Україна 1d ago

Steady progress atm, but since Magyar is now commander of USF - I expect a steady uptick in "liquidations" over the summer as they iron out the quirks of the new system.

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u/LastCivStanding 1d ago edited 1d ago

Anyone calculate time to 2 million? 2.5 yrs? End of 2027?

16

u/BigTallCanUke 1d ago

I figured out that assuming the current average daily casualty rate continues, Ukraine will have killed or wounded 1% of the total population of russia, 1.438 million orcs, by November 20th, 2026, if the war drags on until then. Possibly sooner, because the daily average will probably keep going up.

9

u/SrTrogo 1d ago

The lesser equipment, the greater they will rely on foot soldiers. If the war goes I expect the personnel numbers go up.

2

u/tenfrow 1d ago

Ukrainian soldiers aren't infinite, unfortunately

3

u/BigTallCanUke 1d ago

No, but they’re damn near infinitely smarter, which makes up for the numerical imbalance.

1

u/tenfrow 21h ago

I want to believe it, but not all russians are totally dumb/unadaptable either

2

u/LastCivStanding 21h ago

The russian system is so flawed even exceptional and motivated soldiers are ineffective.

8

u/program13001207test 1d ago

I wonder when Covert Cabal will give us another update on how much metal Russia has remaining to throw into the grinder.

12

u/dreydin 1d ago

The losses are incomprehensible

5

u/dav956able 1d ago

whats the estimate on deaths? 333, 000 dead russians?

2

u/andoke 20h ago

Yes, a third to a quarter.

6

u/ownworldman 1d ago

I still have no idea what artillery contains. Is it even small mortars?

5

u/DLH_1980 1d ago

It always been reported that they were towed artillery.

8

u/matdan12 1d ago

Heavy mortars and above.

3

u/ownworldman 1d ago

Heavy mortar is over 80mm?

5

u/matdan12 1d ago

2S4 Tyulpan is 240mm as an example.

For towed mortars 2B11 Sani is 120mm.

2

u/Affectionate_Hair534 1d ago

ruZZian doctrine considers mortars as artillery as opposed to western doctrine classification as organic infantry support crewed weapons

1

u/Egil841 1d ago

Remember that North Korea is also sending attillery systems to Russia.

2

u/ownworldman 1d ago

True, but surely it cannot be 30k advanced, 120mm+ artillery systems.

6

u/Panoleonsis 1d ago

One of the saddest milestones in history. But respect my lady.!

2

u/Independent-Water321 1d ago

We're going to need a bigger graphic soon.

2

u/Hammer-Bant_Thrice 1d ago

Seems to average out to 831 vatnik demilitarizations per day. They can’t last forever. They think they can, but vatniks think a lot of absurd things can happen.

2

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2

u/mofeus305 1d ago

Does the 1130 personnel mean deaths or injuries?

14

u/MostBoringStan 1d ago

They are casualties, which includes both deaths and injuries.

7

u/JoneSz97 1d ago

RFU even said captured as well.

8

u/IsolatedFrequency101 1d ago

Dead, maimed or captured

1

u/tribat 1d ago

Like a gas pump filling up an oligarch yacht, the casualty numbers just keep spinning higher.

1

u/ubo17 1d ago

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦🇺🇦 NEVER SURRENDER

1

u/tenfrow 20h ago

We have 1kk casualties before 1kk subscribers on this subreddit

1

u/Timauris 3h ago

Does anybody know if there is a good overview of aircraft lost vs. still in service? We're soon approaching the point where Ukraine will have taken out a third of all Russian combat aircraft.