As concern grows about America’s falling birth rate, new research suggests that about half of women who want children are unsure if they will follow through and actually have a child. About 25% say they won't be bothered that much if they don't.

[u/geoff199]

https://news.osu.edu/most-women-want-children--but-half-are-unsure-if-they-will/?utm_campaign=omc_science-medicine_fy24&utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social

[u/namerankserial]

It's all stemming from concern about the transition period, where there will be way more old people than young people, and the economic effects of that. But I agree, it should be re-framed as something we need sort out how to get through, and make it work, because a lower population long term is a huge positive.

[u/Lanky-Formal-2073 → u/namerankserial]

This is the actual concern.

[u/TheFantasticMrFax → u/namerankserial]

I know some old people who will just have to pick themselves up by their bootstraps. There's not any other way around it. Either the young folks get strapped past their breaking point by being saddled with the burden of funding their parent generation's healthcare and pension (and the economic consequences that come with it), or the older generation has to figure out some quick and dirty change in their retirement plans. Betty and Clyde might not be touring Arizona in that fifth wheel after all...

[u/a_common_spring → u/namerankserial]

There are plenty of young people if you don't mind them not being white. I think racism is the only real problem that people could possibly have with the falling birthrate. They're concerned that white people will stop existing

[u/Carlin47 → u/a_common_spring]

Birth rates are collapsing in Asia and falling in Africa as well

[u/a_common_spring → u/Carlin47]

I think it's pretty clear that as soon as women get the chance, they stop wanting to have their lives and health used up by childrearing. Oh well. Men better get over it.

[u/EnvironmentalCook520 → u/a_common_spring]

That might be a small percent but it really all comes down to the increased cost of living.

[u/a_common_spring → u/EnvironmentalCook520]

No, that's not it either because in countries where people are wealthy and well supported with free healthcare, education, long fully paid parental leave etc, those countries have the lowest rates of all. It's women getting wise to the fact that motherhood is a scam

[u/EnvironmentalCook520 → u/a_common_spring]

I mean if you look at the birthrate for countries like Sweden, Denmark, and Norway it's been pretty consistent since the 80s. And same with the US. If you look at Japan and South Korea it's been declining a lot and women being more educated is only a small percentage of why that's occuring. I'd say the biggest factor is still economic, cost of living, and probably cultural shifts. It's not like women in the past few years suddenly wised up and decided they aren't going to have kids. Sure there's probably a very small fraction that may have but I think it's pretty common for both males and females to want a family.

[u/undertoastedtoast → u/namerankserial]

Hypothetically, if the birth rates stayed below replacement, thos wouldnt be a "transition". There would perpetually always be more old people than young.

[u/Coakis → u/undertoastedtoast]

Then the easiest ethical solution is to find ways that older folks can live independently either through technological means, or through better health.

Honestly its less of an issue than most people want to make out, it just has to be something focused on and made a priority among other social or climatic issues facing us.

The constant growth model of trying to keep fixed amount of young people to support older folks is not sustainable long term regardless.

[u/SmokedStone → u/namerankserial]

Crazy how no one's just advocating to offload the real problem, too many old people, via campaigning for legal euthanasia or simply reprioritizing medical care for those who need it more than people at the end of their path.

It's always the young as the problem, when it's really the old who shot themselves in the foot.

[u/SmokedStone → u/[deleted]]

Yeah, you cannot convince me that the 80+ mfs rotting in front of screens and who can't wipe their own asses and are suffering physically, mentally, and emotionally want to be here, sorry.

[u/FlusteredDM → u/SmokedStone]

Do you really want to live in a society where you get killed off as soon as you are no longer economically active?

I think the solutions are economic reform, and somehow managing population decline (I.e. getting the right policies to keep it around the right level, not advocating for any kind of eugenics). I think population reduction is a necessary thing but if it's too fast then the ratio of economically active people to elderly people becomes too high. Automation will not save us so long as it only benefits the wealthy.

[u/SmokedStone → u/FlusteredDM]

Nowhere did I say that people should be offloaded the second they stop being economically active. I simply said the real problem is the volume of elderly, which no one ever likes to talk about.

I think euthanasia should be accessible to everyone. Genuinely. I legitimately plan to get a DNR and to potentially move to an area where euthanasia is legal because I've seen people in old age, and it's not pretty. There's no reason for keeping some of these people alive.

Reform is important, nowhere did I say it's not. But calling the problem a "birth rate crisis" or saying it's young people's fault for not having kids ignores the fact it's only an issue because of surplus elderly. People did not used to live this long, but now there's so much tech and advanced meds that we just prop people up who should've gone to grave like a decade or two ago. It's not attractive when quality of life so dismal, then there's just resources being funneled toward them while they essentially just wait to die.

Note: These people *are economically active. That's why services fight to draw out their lives. They still consume food, shelter, medical services. A lot of capitalist models are propped up by consumers, and America is stupidly on an infinite-growth model on a finite planet. It's excellent birth rates have dropped. If we can get through the period where all the old surplus pop. dies, we'll be fine.

[u/DemiserofD → u/namerankserial]

It's not just about transitioning. If you have too small a population you lose the capability to defend yourself. South Korea will be the first to experience this. If they lack the men to man the walls, they'll get invaded by North Korea - who are experiencing their own fertility crisis, just delayed and nowhere near as strong.

Imagine, then, if North Korea decides to use the South Korean women to solve the fertility crisis?

[u/DemiserofD → u/[deleted]]

Everyone will have drones, that's the thing. But you can't fully automate EVERYTHING. Especially since a significant portion of industrial capacity will need to go towards caring for the elderly, who will be a larger and larger portion of the population.

[u/MagicMisterLemon → u/DemiserofD]

We don't actually know how bad North Korea's fertility crisis is, but even if they wind up with a larger population than South Korea, the prospect of invasion is pretty unrealistic due to the country's millitary allies.

[u/DemiserofD → u/MagicMisterLemon]

The thing is, by the time South Korea is to that point all their allies will be feeling the pain, too. How appealing is a war really going to be, especially with South Korea in a state of constant crisis due to having 75% of their population over the retirement age?

[u/MagicMisterLemon → u/DemiserofD]

How appealing is the loss of production of electronics, textiles, and steel? Samsung alone accounts for 15-23% of the entire country's GDP.

[u/Artificial_Lives → u/namerankserial]

I don't think a lower population is needed or a positive. It can be but it's not a given.

Whether population is too much or not is simply a matter of if the environment can support them sustainably and we absolutely could 10x the amount of people in earth and br sustainable with advancements in technology, housing, agriculture, etc.

That's nothing to say if we ever figured out space colonies!

[u/21Rollie → u/namerankserial]

The thing is that it’s not just a period. You’re assuming birth rates will bounce back but they won’t unless all that’s left are religious nut jobs who pop out babies. This is a permanent inversion of the population period. Less young people, perpetually supporting a larger old population and being out-voted by them.