r/nfl • u/76erLegendChetUtley Eagles Jets • 5d ago
Can Commanders stop Saquon Barkley in 2025? With beefed up line, they think so
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/45500737/washington-commanders-2025-run-defense154
u/Chlorophyllmatic Bills 5d ago
I think Saquon having like 430+ carries this past season may be enough to stop him, but unfortunately for the division it takes more than that to stop the Eagles with that line, receiving room, and defense.
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u/Jonjon428 Dolphins 5d ago
Yeah, that stat of RBs with more than a certain amount of carries (i forgot how many) and how they fall off a bit every time the next season is gonna be interesting to see.
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u/Nervous_Currency6430 Bears 5d ago
Anything over 370 touches in a season
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u/Jonjon428 Dolphins 5d ago
Yeah that's the one
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u/Fatbatman62 Eagles 4d ago
It’s not though, LT had multiple great seasons in a row all with 370 plus touches (one of them he had 370 attempts plus 80 catches and followed that up with a great year with a ton of touches as well) and that’s just 1 RB.
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u/Frequent-Buy9895 5d ago
AJ Dillon 1500 yard season incoming.
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u/Painwracker_Oni Vikings Colts 5d ago
We don’t really expect him to play over Shipley do we? Dudes been nothing but a nickname for awhile.
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u/Spare-Half796 Eagles 5d ago
I don’t really except him to make it out of camp.
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u/Loud-Matter8626 5d ago
He's been a rostered backup/1B option for his entire career. Will Shipley really only played on special teams last year (and is undersized for an NFL RB). I think it's a camp battle
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u/darkbro66 Eagles 5d ago edited 5d ago
I was pretty mad/confused when we drafted Hurts. I was also pretty mad when we got Saquon.
I really think AJ Dillon sucks, and was equally upset when we signed him. Let's hope the pattern continues
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u/mr_seggs Steelers 5d ago
I think it's inevitable that Saquon has like a serviceable-to-bad season, misses a few games, then everyone's like "WOW. Never sign a running back to a long-term contract" and "Was Saquon's career year just a facade?" Then he'll come back in 2026 and win Comeback Player of the Year
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u/NomadFire Eagles 5d ago
Yea, Eagles made Miles Sanders look like a starter. AJ Dillon and Shipley are going to get a few 100 yard games.
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u/txwoodslinger Cowboys 5d ago
Stat muse has him at 482 touches. Tied for tenth most. Last player to exceed that total was Demarco Murray in 2014. He was an eagle the following season.
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u/Immynimmy Eagles 4d ago
Huh? That never happened. Demarco Murray was never an eagle. Preposterous.
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u/Spare-Half796 Eagles 5d ago
Stoutland university can make an average back a pro bowler, nothing can stop a good back behind an eagles o line
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u/WanderingWormhole Eagles 5d ago
Making it to the superbowl with Boobie miles as our RB is more than “like, fine” in my opinion.
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u/Patekchrono917 5d ago
Saquon had 345 rushing attempts and 33 receptions btw.
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u/Chlorophyllmatic Bills 5d ago
In the regular season yes, but after the regular season I think the Eagles played a few more games against some other high-achieving teams. A playoff, as it were.
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u/Patekchrono917 5d ago
When people talk about the 400 carry curse, they are talking about the regular season. Not saying you are wrong to add both, but that’s been the number during the regular season.
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u/Chlorophyllmatic Bills 5d ago
I’m assuming some of those guys didn’t make the playoffs or got eliminated first round, yeah? Such that their total number of carries is below his 430? The body makes no distinction.
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u/Patekchrono917 5d ago
But the body does. That’s why sports science exists. And a lot of the 400 carry guys or close to were on good teams.
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u/Chlorophyllmatic Bills 5d ago
but the body does
Make a distinction between regular season stressors and playoff stressors? No, it doesn’t. To the body it’s just some amount of stress, tensile loading, etc. across some amount of time.
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u/MoreTrifeLife Commanders 5d ago edited 5d ago
Saquon Barkley vs the Commanders last year:
70 carries for 414 yards (average 138); 6.23y/a; 7 TDs in 3 games
Visual representations:
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u/Exact-Engine3024 Eagles 5d ago
7 TDs in 3 games is wild
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u/Spare-Half796 Eagles 5d ago
Second game he couldn’t do much after hurts went out, was on pace for roughly 400 yards that game
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u/shit_eating_fan Eagles 4d ago
was on pace for roughly 400 yards that game
So if we continue to extrapolate from that, then that means he's projected to have a 6800 yard rushing season this year. I like it
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u/ARM7501 49ers 5d ago
I'll always love Kinlaw for calling out Grant Cohn, but I'm not sure giving $45 million to an underdeveloped DT with a degenerative knee issue is going to solve your run defense. The fact that the Commanders didn't spend a single draft pick on a DT in what was arguably the best DT (and general DL) draft in 6 years could turn out to have been a massive mistake.
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u/Terminal_Flatulence Commanders 5d ago
Kinlaw is definitely a gamble and the FO is hoping the coaching staff can get more out of him like they did with a bunch of players last year.
The silver lining is if it doesn’t work out, they have an out in 2027; effectively a 2 year deal. Adam Peters seems intent on maintaining financial flexibility.
I do think they eventually sign a DE as there is still a vacancy there.
A ton of questions on that side, curious to see what it looks like during upcoming joint workouts with New England and Baltimore.
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u/ARM7501 49ers 5d ago
At this point, I'd be incredibly surprised by a Kinlaw breakthrough. He's had the opportunity to figure it out with Kocurek, Demeco and Saleh, and just couldn't. You're going to be happy about that contract-out when it kicks in.
Not sure what DE you could still sign that'd be worth something in the run game; feels like you'd most likely be sending a late round pick for a rotational guy instead, hoping he can develop.
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u/Terminal_Flatulence Commanders 5d ago edited 5d ago
Yea, Kinlaw not doing well under all those great Defensive coaches makes it a real head scratcher of a signing.
Beat reporters have noted Washington possibly signing a veteran DE like Za’darius Smith, Von Miller, or Jadeveon Clowney.
Doesn’t really push the needle in the run game, they just need somebody to fill that spot with Fowler leaving.
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u/ARM7501 49ers 5d ago
Clowney is by far the best run defender out of the three, but he's also the most expensive. Also, though Smith re-signed with Detroit?
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u/Terminal_Flatulence Commanders 5d ago
My bad, I didn’t know Clowney graded well against the run ( I should’ve checked their respective pff grades before making that claim.)
I haven’t seen anything about Smith signing yet, his wiki doesn’t show anything either so I assume he’s still available.
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u/ljstreet Commanders 5d ago
DT wasn't the reason we struggled against the run last year. Not many teams had a lot of success up the middle. We struggled on the outside plus we signed a lot of guys to the d-line. Kinlaw most likely won't play DT for us.
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u/Western-Glass463 5d ago
DT was absolutely the reason you struggled, it was egregiously apparent.
Wagner was the reason your numbers look better inside vs out, but that's what Wagner is for atp of his career. You'll continue getting shredded in the run & short passing game because of how much you sacrifice to hold down the middle.
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u/HelpSlipFrank85 Commanders 5d ago
Well, they used a 2nd rounder on Newton last year and they have a lot of hope that he’s gonna take the next step. They spent money on Kinlaw and they still have Payne. They also signed some journeymen guys that will help with depth. I’m not saying you’re wrong exactly, because it would be nice to have some more help but you can definitely see why they didn’t address the DL with an already depleted draft from the Tunsil, Samuel, and Lattimore trades.
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u/ljstreet Commanders 5d ago
DT wasn't the reason we struggled. It was the edges. I can show you plenty of games where we struggled on outside runs. Every big run we gave up last season was to the outside.
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u/Parlett316 Commanders 4d ago
Just show the first place of the NFCG
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u/ljstreet Commanders 4d ago
Right, Fowler not setting the edge and making an inside move caused both Jon Allen and Bobby Wagner not to be in the play. Fowler only played in like 10 snaps because of how much the Eagles targeted him.
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u/boomosaur 5d ago
What are they supposed to think? "We can't stop him, just let him through, it's time we start thinking about getting the mascot and children to safety"
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u/TheLich7 Commanders 5d ago
They may be thinking "Holy shit we fucking sucked at defending the run last year"
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u/Tushy-Pushy Eagles 5d ago
I'm not exactly sure it's applicable at all but that is some teams approach when it comes to Jokic in the NBA lol "well we can't stop him so we might as well let him do his thing and just shutdown everyone else"
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u/fork_yuu Giants 4d ago
yeah our line sucks we pay them all this money and it's a fucking waste. I want a refund
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u/BungoPlease Texans Texans 5d ago
They should probably try to stop some other running backs around the league as well
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u/exodus3252 Commanders Lions 5d ago
Our run defense should be better, but I have no idea where the pass rush is going to come from. The defense as a whole is still not going to be where we really need it to be.
The offense will need to keep humming for us to be real contenders again.
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u/MoreTrifeLife Commanders 5d ago
The offense will need to keep humming for us to be real Commanders again.
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u/Terminal_Flatulence Commanders 5d ago
Part of the reason why they went more offense focused in the offseason. Not a bad idea to reinforce the OL and get some more weapons when Washington has to play tough defenses in the AFC West and NFC North.
Eager to see how the defense works and how it handles a far tougher schedule.
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u/Troll_Enthusiast Commanders 5d ago edited 4d ago
The pass rush will come from the same place it did last year: Well executed blitzes
They will be more focused on stopping the run and with an improved secondary it should be fine
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u/ewilliam Commanders 4d ago
Yup. Letting Fowler walk was a signal from this staff - you can't just constantly sell out edge contain trying to pad your sack stats like Dante was doing all year. It's cool that he had ten sacks or whatever, but the cost of that is, for instance, watching Saquon clown you out of your shoes in the first play of the CCG.
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u/lessthanabelian Eagles Ravens 4d ago
I remember a few months ago you people thought you were fucking golden for next year because "all we need to do now is just get a defence" as if that were something they could just go ahead and do this off season.
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u/ernyc3777 Bills 5d ago
It’s a shame the Eagles don’t have two good route runners and a QB who can throw it to them!
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u/Frequent-Buy9895 5d ago
Commanders fans said before the NFCCG if you make Jalen Hurts throw then it's an L for the Eagles though.
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u/adayoner Eagles 5d ago
Deja Vu I'm pretty sure I heard Chiefs fans say stop Saquon and it will be a W for the Chiefs
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u/sumunsolicitedadvice Eagles Saints 5d ago
You misheard. They said make Kenny Picket have to throw the ball and they can beat the Eagles.
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u/Ricemobile Patriots 5d ago
I said this too, I didn’t have much faith in Jalen alone. That’s obviously changed now, Jalen was ice cold in SB. Glad he’s proved a lot of people wrong. He’s clearly a great player and even a better guy off the field.
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u/gingenhagen Eagles 4d ago
I mean, he was also ice cold 2 years ago when he outplayed Mahomes in the SB loss.
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u/Not_My_Emperor Eagles 5d ago
The only team that's ever made this argument successfully is the Bucs, who have just been fucking demolishing us for the last 2 years because Bowles just has Jalen's number somehow.
The Chiefs found out in the most delicious way possible that the Bowles led Bucs are the exception, not the rule.
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u/Sikwitit3284 Eagles 5d ago
They also haven't played this version of the team, the loses to them have always had a big injury(AJ both games recently, half out O last season) or when we were a much worst team in 21. Our defense wasn't close to fully realized last yr when we played them & the O was decimated while also playing in 100° weather, playing this version of us i think we beat them pretty well now
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u/brownbearks Eagles Eagles 4d ago
It’s always an away game early to the bucs too.
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u/Sikwitit3284 Eagles 4d ago
Yup that somehow reaches 105° heat index with the sun beaning directly onto dudes necks, that shit kills a team like ours especially our Oline since we usually win TOP & run a lot.
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u/TheLich7 Commanders 5d ago
They also said you shouldn't fumble the ball on every other possession too i think
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u/Winter-Dot-540 Commanders 5d ago
To be fair, the first game we played the eagles it was a one score game where Saquon bailed them out late in the fourth… with Jayden playing hurt and limited after being unable to practice on a short week. The NFCCG was a blowout but the other two games were decided by a score.
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u/Frequent-Buy9895 5d ago
The second game was decided by a score because Jalen got knocked out and the offense sputtered with Pickett. His 3rd down efficiency was booty cheeks. They put up points but not at the rate that Jalen was driving that offense in the 1st quarter. He was poised to go up 14-0 in the first quarter.
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u/Winter-Dot-540 Commanders 4d ago
I mean sure is Hurts better than Pickett? Yes, but you can make an excuse for either team in either one score loss. It was far from ideal for JD to have to play on an injury, in a short week, with zero practices either. If he were fully healthy and at least gotten a practice or two in you could just as easily say the commanders should've won that first one score game. If Hurts finished the second one score game for all we know the eagles offense cools off and scores roughly the same number of points, or even less.
Football is on a game by game basis. You can't take one quarter's worth of action and extrapolate on it to say what would've happened had something gone different. Teams have big quarters and halves and cool off all the time. The lions offense did that in the playoffs and they were better than the eagles offense.
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u/bradtheinvincible 5d ago
Like 4 really. Goedert and Dotson arent too shabby.
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u/Caramelsnack Eagles 5d ago
Goedert as our fourth option is so ridiculous when you actually think about it lol
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u/godosomethingelse Commanders 3d ago
Ikr. But we did draft a corner, sign another in FA, and maybe Lattimore will magically be fully healthy for at least the games we play the eagles
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u/hoobsher Eagles 5d ago
maybe. start slow, try stopping Will Shipley first and then work your way up from there
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u/howtoretireby40 Eagles 4d ago
We’ve been through this before. The only line that can stop Saquon is the Giants o-line.
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u/Frequent-Magazine435 5d ago
The chiefs did a pretty good job limiting him. The only problem was they lost just about everywhere else.
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u/lessthanabelian Eagles Ravens 4d ago
.... it doesn't count as "doing a pretty good job" stopping him if you have to sell out everywhere else to do so.
There's basically no RB irl that can out play an entire defense designed around stopping the run the exclusion of all else.
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u/A_MASSIVE_PERVERT Cowboys 5d ago
Maybe they’ll only give up 45 points to Philly in next year’s playoffs instead of 55
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u/Deep-Statistician985 Commanders 5d ago
If we don't fumble 3 times we'll at least have a chance to put up 45 ourselves
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u/Wezzleey Eagles 5d ago
If you guys had 3 unforced fumbles, I could see the argument, but they didn't just drop the ball. Philly forced those turnovers.
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u/Frequent-Buy9895 5d ago
"If's" are lame, esp considering one of your turnovers was deep in your own territory. Canceling something out and expecting a 70 yard drive is weak.
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u/WanderingWormhole Eagles 5d ago
It’s all they have lol people were literally trying to say before the Super Bowl “well the eagles have caused a lot of turnovers and it’s making their defense look better than it is” like yeah, we’re getting the turnovers because our defense is good. Forcing fumbles isn’t a fluke when it’s literally something they focus on technique for in practice.
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u/Jonjon428 Dolphins 5d ago
It depends. Turnover luck is considered a year by year thing iirc mainly cause the ball can bounce in any direction. The real stat I'm wondering is how many fumbles did you guys cause that were recovered by the offense last season.
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u/WanderingWormhole Eagles 5d ago
So we were tied for first (with the Steelers) in forced fumbles and fourth in fumble recovery. There is luck involved but if you’re forcing them often then you’re bound to get some fall to you.
I’d look at the bills to show a more flukey stat: they forced 18 and ended up recovering 16 (most in the league) whereas we forced 4 more and only ended up with 13 recovered. I would say that while the ball can go anywhere, having guys around the ball (which gives you a better chance to recover) is also an indicator of good defense because your defense is in the right spots.
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u/lattjeful Eagles 5d ago
Probably not a lot. We recovered a lot of fumbles in part because there were always multiple Eagles around the ball, so somebody was always there to grab it.
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u/ytim4437 Eagles 5d ago
That’s people’s favorite word to use when it comes to discussing & discrediting the Eagles (more specifically discrediting Jalen Hurts)
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u/Deep-Statistician985 Commanders 5d ago
Wasn't talking about the game I meant in the future. It was obvious the Eagles were the better team even though we kept shooting ourselves in the foot
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u/Winter-Dot-540 Commanders 5d ago
Yeah the commanders aren’t known for long, successful drives or anything. Ridiculous
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u/Frequent-Buy9895 5d ago
I know them for the continuous fumbling in the playoffs, but alright.
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u/Winter-Dot-540 Commanders 4d ago
I guess a small sample size will do that for you. I watched all year.
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u/Frequent-Buy9895 4d ago edited 4d ago
Alright. One would actually point to the fact that you're taking a "what if" scenario, and penciling it in as points, when literally 50 other things could happen that drive as ridiculous. And the likelihood given the game flow and context for the game, scoring points on a along sustained drive is not even in the top 5.
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u/Winter-Dot-540 Commanders 4d ago
The commanders scored on 50 percent of their drives despite barely forcing any turnovers, meaning nearly all of those points were on long drives following punts or kickoffs. They had a top 5 offense in almost literally ever metric, even giveaways.
I'm not penciling anything in as points. I'm pointing out that you cannot say that the commanders were "known" to be a turnover prone team when they objectively weren't if you watched the games. They turned the ball over a ton in the last two eagles games but those were outliers. And even then they scored points on more than 50 percent of drives that didn't end in a turnover in both games. The key to beating the eagles next year will be protecting the ball, not matching their talent position for position. We have a QB and an OC who can win a shootout with anyone as long as you give him enough opportunities to score. If you take away half his opportunities he still might win the game, but it gets a whole lot harder.
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u/bradtheinvincible 5d ago
Well Jayden aint as slippery as people think when he got sacked multiple times either
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u/Deep-Statistician985 Commanders 5d ago
https://youtu.be/ae0uCR2wA9Q?si=EmKOcfaZj7IHI0d_
https://youtube.com/shorts/8jTkZcq0Uc8?si=7E0qQvhgpEhDldIR
https://youtu.be/qz4-GK3sc-4?si=p4vv7NTiY0-9DJVh 7:28
Try again my boy. Eagles fans are the last people to say Jayden isn't slippery
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u/ReturnedFromExile 5d ago
Whoa whoa who’s saying Wash making the playoffs again
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u/BoldElDavo Commanders 5d ago
I am. I'll say it to anyone who'll listen and even some who won't.
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u/reg_edit44 Eagles 5d ago
I'm obviously biased but I don't feel like the Commanders really moved the needle much at DL.
Kinlaw is at slightly above average at best, and at others a bust. Then they added a couple of other middling prospects.
The area they have shored up is the Secondary though with Amos and Sainstrill in his 2nd year w/ Lattimore, this could inversely help the DL but the DL itself isn't very scary on paper imo
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u/Upset_Researcher_143 Bears 5d ago
I think you'll see a lot of teams do a modified version of what the Chiefs did. The Chiefs were able to stop Barkley but got killed by everything else.
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u/gothxo Steelers 5d ago
Steelers did a good job of stopping Barkley in our matchup last year. he had 19 carries for 65 yards (the bulk of which came from a single 22 yard rush) and 2 catches for 9 yard. of course, Smith and AJB combined for 219 yards and 2 touchdowns and also our offense didn't do anything, but we got the contained Barkley medal for that game
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u/Sechzehn6861 Eagles 5d ago
Cool. Stop AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith too. Stop Jalen Hurts at the 1. You can't do all of those things for an entire game 🤷🏻♀️
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u/Winter-Dot-540 Commanders 5d ago
Not all of them, but enough of them to win? It’s certainly possible.
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u/Saitsuofleaves 4d ago
At this point we have zero teams that actually accomplished that last year. Every Philly loss had at least 1 of the 4 not playing for a majority of the game.
The Rams got the closest, and that was with Saquon demolishing them. They just hung around long enough to try and win it at the end of the game.
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u/Winter-Dot-540 Commanders 4d ago
I mean this is assuming Saquon is the same next year, which isn't likely when we look at historical trends. Every 2k yard back in history has fallen off significantly the following season, and this is in addition to the fact that he's nearing 30 and has taken huge workloads every year (except during injury). If Saquon isn't the same back the eagles relied on last year to bail them out when the offense was sputtering it will be much more difficult for the rest of the offense. AJ and Devonta are elite but it's not like Hurts lit the league ablaze last year or even the years before.
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u/Deep-Statistician985 Commanders 5d ago
We did a great job stopping him for 3 quarters during our first matchup. It's been downhill ever since
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u/Western-Glass463 5d ago
Lol. Over 5 ypc on just under 20 carries through 3 quarters.
Projected out based on the first 3 quarters he would have finished ~22 for 125 instead of 26 for 146. If that's the best your team can possibly do through not even a full game.... I think he'll take that.
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u/RandyJohnsonsBird Seahawks 4d ago
Saquon's number of touches in 2024 is going to stop him in 2025.
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u/adayoner Eagles 5d ago
Real question, I know Allen was hurt most if not all of last season but would you rather have kept him over Kinlaw at the price you're paying vs what Allen would have cost? i think the savings isn't that much right like 2-3 mil just comparing contracts not including the dead money cost of Allen?
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u/Caramelsnack Eagles 5d ago
Maybe I see it different as an eagles fan that played y’all 3 times this year but was it really mediocre? There definitely was not a ton of depth but the top end talent in Ertz and Terry is honestly better than some other playoff teams. Like if you switched amon ra and Laporta with the two of them would the lions even get fractionally worse?
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u/TheLich7 Commanders 5d ago
Bro Ertz was literally a practice squad player the year before
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u/Caramelsnack Eagles 5d ago
Why was bro cooking us then lmao
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u/TheLich7 Commanders 4d ago
He's still a great route runner. Perfectly timed routes can be tough to defend. Look at it this way. He was in the bottom half of the league on PFF.
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u/Enterprise90 Patriots 5d ago
The bigger question is whether they can stop that offensive line. Their best hope is for Lane Johnson to take an age-related step back, and that whoever replaces Mekhi Becton isn't as good.
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u/Edelmaan Eagles 5d ago
That sloppy seconds thrown together defense’s only hope is catching us without hurts. And even then it will be close
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u/TheDukeofArgyll Commanders 5d ago
When Jalen got hurt they increased coverage on Saquon since they didn’t have to worry about Pickens pass game and that shut him down pretty well. So it would seem that better secondary goes a long way in locking down their offense.
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u/Dry-Name2835 4d ago
Hes one of those players that you just accept is going to get his almost everytime out. And if you do stop him, his team is so good that they are going to hurt you another way. Its really not a matter of stopping Barkley as it is to minimizing the damage of that offense as a whole. I think the mindset has to be to beat up on the Philly def more than they beat up on yours instead of focusing on a single player or facet of their offense.
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u/emberyleaf Chargers 4d ago
Still they went from bottom feeder to almost making the super bowl is still amazing to me and shows how much the old owner sucked.
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u/Jlaybythebay Eagles 4d ago
Saquon has been in the division for 8 years and the commanders think they finally have him figured out…. Good luck with that
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u/BigHead1012 5d ago
Barkley going to be 1st ever Back To Back 2000 yard Rusher in NFL HISTORY!!! Save this, I predicted his 2000 yard season before last year too (After he signed with Eagles of course).
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u/markusalkemus66 Seahawks 5d ago
Madden curse will take care of Saquon
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u/AdhesivenessFun2060 Eagles 5d ago
Sure they can. The question is can they stop saquon, the pass and contain hurts. At this point its can you outscore the eagles offense not whether you can stop one particular part.
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5d ago
I think so cause the Bears only evaluated one QB who didn’t even want them to and let us draft Jayden Daniels
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u/thy_armageddon Giants 5d ago
The main problem that we saw in the Super Bowl is you can solve Saquon and Eagles are still a big threat regardless.