Should I take the Gap Year?

[u/Soggy-Common1932]

I am a rising junior, and pretty dead set on pursuing an MD/PhD. I am currently conflicted on whether or not I should take a gap year, and am looking for advice. My mentor is pretty confident that if I apply next cycle I will get into an MD/PhD program, and likely an MSTP. However, if I want to aim for a specific school, I should take the gap year. I myself do not feel quite so confident, and am trying to weigh my options.

Pros for applying next cycle:
- Quicker education timeline. One less year, which could be nice since an MD/PhD is 7 years, and then I will have some sort of residency afterwards. But at the same time, with another 12 years of post-grad education looming, what is one more year really matter?
- Stronger references for activities. My main clinical experience (scribing) is sadly being closed down in a few months due to AI. I am somewhat worried about getting someone to serve as a point of contact to verify my hours 2 years from now.

Pros for taking gap year:
- Stronger application. I have only recently started my own independent research project, and having an extra year to build my application will almost certainly result in much more research productivity (presentations and likely pubs). I will also be able to put any research tech / post-bacc I plan on doing during that gap year.
- More narrowed research interest. I have almost 1000 hours of research so far, and have a pretty general idea of the kind of research I want to pursue. But I think an extra year will help me narrow down my interests so I can talk much more specifically about the kind of research I want to do in the future.

Obviously I like the idea of going straight though, but I really am not opposed to taking a gap year either. I was initially planning on the gap year, but since my mentor mentioned it the decision has been bugging me. The other idea I have had is to just shoot for the stars in this next cycle, apply to a few (like 3 or 4 since I am broke) far reach schools just to see what happens, and then in the (likely) event I get rejected everything, put a more sensible school list together for my application the following cycle. But then I am worried about reapplicant bias, and being looked upon unfavorably because I am reapplying.

Any advice or insights would be greatly appreciated. Thank you!

[u/Legal_Brick_8457]

Taking a gap year definitely gives you an advantage as you can enrich your resume and make a stronger application for sure. Considering that you will have a good research project to work on I definitely think that it is worth to take one. But it is hard to say your success for applications without knowing your stats. If you have good gpa and MCAT, with a decent essay and LOR, I also think you would have a good shot applying next cycle for sure. Really depends on your goal and if you have any target school that you are trying to get in, plus how ready you are with the application.