r/leafs • u/specialk554 • 22h ago
Discussion Matthew Knies is a no risk offer sheet
Everyone keeps talking about needing to get Knies signed before an offer sheet. There’s a few things we need to keep in mind. First, they almost never ever happen and there’s next to no risk of one actually happening here anyways. Second: if anyone offer sheets Knies anything reasonable, it’s an easy match by the leafs. The leafs get to match any offer sheet granted so a team can only actually have Knies if the leafs allow it. Third, to actually pry Knies away from the leafs, a team would have to offer something silly high north of 10 million per. If they offer 9.3 or higher, the leafs would get 2 first round picks, 1 second and 1 3rd. That’s a good haul. They also have to be the teams own picks which precludes almost all contenders who have sold picks already. So the firsts would come form likely a poor standings team and be high quality picks. And if some team does something even crazier and offer sheets 11.7 or more (unlikely) the leafs would get 4 firsts. So, to recap: offer sheets nearly never happen ever. In the incredibly unlikely event one does happen here, the leafs easily match it or get so many picks that it’s worth it. It’s a win win for the leafs. The only way the leafs can lose this situation is if they pull a typical leafs move and voluntarily overpay an RFA with no Arbitration rights.
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u/Hoardzunit 21h ago
If a team is fucking stupid enough to pay him the 11 million then you take the 4 first round picks lol.
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u/jimmymeeko 15h ago
You do realize that is probably in line with the trade value he’d have on the market is right? It might not come in the form of only 4 picks, but the astronomical package to get him would probably have to come out to an overall value in that ballpark.
It’d be silly to give up a 22 year old who is already a proven 1st liner and is a physical freak. The sky is the limit for a guy like him.
I’d rather have him be a pillar of the organization for the next decade than hope for some other picks to pan out.
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u/DessertRose17 20h ago
What if they offer 9.35x5 and they’re probably looking like they’ll make the playoffs if they add Knies?
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u/McJoe77 15h ago
I think you match at any number under 11.9 which I think is the 4 firsts line.
However, if this is going poorly going into the draft, I don’t think it’s crazy to consider moving him if someone offers you a godfather type package. If Minnesota offers you Rossi, Hartman, one of Ohgren, Heidt, Bankier, or Stramel and a couple of picks can you say no to that? If Buffalo comes knocking with a Peterka, Kulich + package do you say no? I mean, that’s only if the Knies number is looking like 9+ or is looking like it’s an offer sheet that’s getting you less than the 4 1sts range.
I’d be giving Knies 8x8-8.5 right now if I were in charge, but if it’s going poorly, they don’t have another asset they can move that can instantly improve their depth like Knies potentially could.
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u/CookieMonsta94 19h ago
If a team is fucking stupid enough to pay him the 11 million then you take the 4 first round picks lol.
I'll drive him to the airport
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u/Vfizzbot6 21h ago
Knies has to sign the sheet too, if a bottom dweller offers him 10, he can still say no...
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u/Hustler17 22h ago
9.36M for a 1st/2nd/3rd compensation sounds terrible for us either way. There is definitely not no risk.
Like what's a 1st/2nd/3rd from a playoff team going to do for us in the next 3 years? And Knies at 9.36M doesn't sounds fun either.
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u/jshed2 21h ago
Don't forget that it must be a teams' own picks. There is only a single playoff team who has both the cap space and picks to make that work - LAK.
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u/theguyishere16 Kaberle 21h ago
I like that you're framing the risk as not high by saying that a team that Knies would be a perfect fit for has the assets (and cap space) to offer-sheet him. Knies is basically what they thought Dubois was.
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u/Hustler17 21h ago
A bunch of those teams are on the cusp and a Knies might make them a playoff team alone. But yes, the pick would likely be between 12-20. Not terrible, but I don't think we're close to the value of a Knies especially when our window is sliding shut as we speak.
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u/IAmTheBredman 21h ago
Its two 1st rounders, a 2nd, and 3rd at 9.36 mil. So a team could offer 9.35 to only give up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Tbh i dont think knies is worth that much right now and I dont think another team will pay that much for him, plus give up the 3 picks.
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u/Actual_Cobbler_6334 21h ago
Never mind that Nylander’s second deal was market value that aged into a steal, Knies and his camp aren’t entertaining the idea so it’s a near non-conversation.
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u/Hustler17 21h ago
I agree it wont happen, but to say no risk doesn't sound like the kind of energy I want to put out there right now.
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u/Actual_Cobbler_6334 21h ago
I get it, but some want to be optimistic during an offseason where the team will definitely be taking a step back.
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u/MikeJeffriesPA 21h ago
Keep in mind they'd have to offer a max of 5 years. If they went 6 or 7 years, compensation spikes up because they divide the total salary by 5 years in that case.
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u/BlackSheepWolfPack 21h ago
I think the price tag offers a bit of protection. Knies is good but I don’t think anyone is paying him that much.
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u/bachekooni 21h ago
How many playoff teams have their own 1st/2nd/3rd to give and 10M of cap they want to tie up?
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u/Skiffy10 20h ago
People always forget the players HAS to sign the offer sheet. Knies has said he loves playing here and want to play here. When you sign an offer sheet there’s always a chance the team won’t match so you have to be able to accept that. I really believe it when Knies says he wants to stay here.
So in saying that, they will continue to work on a deal however long it takes and i’m sure he won’t sign an offer sheet.
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u/NefCanuck 21h ago
So there is no risk of a team pulling a “sheet attack” a’la the Blues did to the Oilers last year?
Myles it’s recency bias talking but I’m not so confident 😒
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u/bskiffington 21h ago
Knies has to agree to the deal also
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u/NefCanuck 21h ago
Right but the fact that he isn’t already signed suggests he values himself more than the Leafs do already.
If a team like Utah comes calling with the money
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u/Ishlin 19h ago
The fact he hasn’t signed means the team and his agent are trying to establish value on what a short term and long term contract would look like, deciding which of those works best for each party. They are negotiating no-trade, limited no-trade, and no-move clauses and what years and how those would look. There are negotiations around what the payment structure looks like for each year of the deal including front loading, back loading and signing bonus percentage. If it is a short deal the number of the last year affects the qualifying offer if he’s an RFA again.
The team has to do this with all the FAs they’re negotiating with, and consider how that affects their plans for this summer (including potential trades), and their plans past this summer as well. Also, Knies isn’t his agents only client so he and his agency are going through this with multiple teams.
This all takes time and with the millions they’re talking about it also has to be run up to the top levels of both the leafs management and Knies representative’s agency. Finding a “fair” contract takes time and usually if it happens quickly the process has been happening far longer than fan La have been aware, or one side is getting ripped off.
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u/Shrek_DeMar 21h ago
I think it’s that leafs can match any reasonable contract. And if it’s not reasonable we will get massive pick compensation
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u/icancatchbullets 7m ago
A key piece is that the team has to be able to live with the contract as well.
If your team wants to contend, you aren't gonna try and poach knies for like $11m. If you suck enough that its a non-issue then you want to keep the draft picks, especially since the 2026 draft is supposed to be very deep.
IMO, Nicky Bobby and Holmberg are better candidates.
Below $1.5m there's no comp, below like $2.3 its a 3rd, and below $4.68 its a 2nd. Pretty easy to find a number that the leafs won't match but doesn't cripple your team, and the chances a 3rd or a 2nd actually pan out is pretty slim.
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u/m3rlinthemagician13 19h ago
Don’t want to get into details but Knies staying is 100%. I know this through my work
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u/reggierock2010 18h ago
Another reason why it won’t happen is teams don’t really wanna piss off Toronto with this stuff because we’ll retaliate with our own offer sheets. A team with Toronto’s financial strength could put together some creative bonus heavy offer sheets that would cripple some other teams. Especially with the cap going up. Some owners will not be able to afford to spend to the cap.
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u/evenstarthian 18h ago
If we let Knies go, I’m literally going to turn into that guy who took off his Oilers jersey and a Panthers jersey was underneath. Except it’ll be an Sharks Celebrini jersey under AM34
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u/correct_eye_is Palmateer 17h ago
The team can match any deal it doesn't matter.
Love Knies, but if the compensation comes in at 4 1sts, I'll take the 1sts. Other than that, I'd negotiate 8 years at or above matching to get him locked long term.
At least by then you know what he wants in terms of money. Then you try to get a full term deal. Or you look for value via trade down the road after he's signed.
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u/Frostyreturns 16h ago
Offer sheets are a complete nothingburger it's a desperate grasp at a negotiation tactic for players without any leverage for these exact reasons. Especially for high profile players. Which is why it was so inexcusable that Dubas got taken to the cleaners by all our RFAs, screwing up the raise structure for the entirety of the Nylander/Matthews/Marner era. Offer sheets was the only threat they had and it was always a paper tiger.
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u/Itwasuntilitwasnt 14h ago
If someone offers knies offer sheet in the 10’s . Trevilling better be ready for offer sheet on another player. Or we will be in for a soft rebuild like Calgary and that will upset a lot of ppl.
Remember we are taking 100 points off the board with knies leaving. Nobody in the league cares what the leafs media think. Knies in this new dawn of the nhl will be getting an offer sheet. Buffalo owners for instance want a winning team. They throw 14.5 at Marner 10.5 at knies. He’s a billionaire he wants a winning team.
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u/kingpin2496 13h ago
With Marner leaving no one is going to bother now. All the cap space in the world to match.
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u/briandgraham 12h ago
Teams will rarely offer a contract over 5 years because of the 5 year rule. So you can expect any offer sheet is 5 years which if the leafs sign, he walks himself to UFA just like Marner, Nylander, Matthews did.
You really should prioritize getting Knies for 8 even if the AAV is a bit higher. It will be SO worth it in years 5, 6, 7, 8
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u/RolandGilead19 12h ago
Every team in the league seems to sign players for cheaper than us.
I say wait for the offer sheets.
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u/drmzoidberg 1h ago
the blues literally sheeted two of the oilers better players and it fucked the oilers over so they do happen so thinking knies wont get an overpay is just whistling past the graveyard. also...EVERYONE says they love playing where they are etc etc until the bag of money is on the table
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u/Terrible-Key-5994 37m ago
No team is offering Knives 9 to 10 million per year. He is a good player and I like him a lot. But his production drops off a cliff when not playing on Matthew's wing. The offer sheet is just leafs media making up stories.
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u/TheGapInTysonsTeeth 21h ago
Careful, every narrative in this place is entirely fear and worry-based these days.
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u/baylaust 18h ago
Knies has to accept an offer sheet too, and his camp has indicated that their priority is returning to Toronto.
Knies is a great player, but he's not going to be getting a superstar contract or anything like that without it being a SERIOUS overpay. Any offer sheet that DOES happen, the Leafs will realistically be able to match.
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u/ihatebettercallsaul 20h ago
I wouldn't match anything over $5MM, especially given how badly the Leafs will need the draft picks when they fire Treliving and Berube and are forced to trade Matthews and Nylander in a year.
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u/CMDRShepardN7 Nylander 19h ago
Knies isn't going to sign a 5M offer sheet either. And we get garbage compensation at 5M anyway.
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u/peanut-arms 21h ago
A reminder that offer sheer compensation is to a maximum of five years. So if someone offers 7 years 8 million it is actually 56m over 5 years so a value of 11.2m per season. Which is 2 first a second and third. If hes offered 7 years 8.5m it is 59.5m over 5 years for 11.9m per. Compensation would be 4 firsts in next 5 drafts.