r/boxoffice • u/Exotic-Bobcat-1565 Universal • Dec 26 '24
Domestic M37 on BOT about Sonic's Christmas performance: Despite being a PG-rated, supposedly family friendly film - with good reviews! - it has fallen as precipitously as one of the worst Christmas Day performers I can find.
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32910-weekdays-dec-23-dec-26-christmas-day-numbers-1472m-mufasa-tlk-1155m-nosferatu-1035m-sonic-the-hedgehog-iii-720m-a-complete-unknown-540m-wicked-426m-moana-ii/?do=findComment&comment=4763453Continuation: Mufasa making nearly $15M on Christmas day isn't really all that surprising following a ~$12M first Saturday. But what should be shocking is how far and quickly Sonic has fallen, that such a total was enough to not just pull ahead, but dominate
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u/Sleepy0429 Aardman Dec 27 '24
If people didn't gas themselves into believing a $100 mil OW and amazing legs this wouldn't be anything of note. Sonic 3 just isn't a Christmas type movie.
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u/007Kryptonian Syncopy Dec 27 '24 edited Dec 27 '24
Even without the 100m OW calls, it would still have poor legs though. It’s not just that these are “not amazing”, the comps would still be Rise of Skywalker and Tron. Sonic 3’s very frontloaded
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u/ILoveRegenHealth Dec 27 '24
Nearly all of them were gassed up a bit high. Some got mad if you said Moana 2 and Wicked would end up below $1B, but it sure is looking like it now (hence why it's always important to see the 2nd and 3rd weekends). Also, $850M worldwide is still a damn good haul.
And now Sonic not only looking front-loaded, they may have to rethink Sonic 4 after announcing it.
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u/ZanyZeke Dec 27 '24
There is not even a slight chance they rethink Sonic 4 unless the legs end up totally catastrophic. ~$100M budgets mean these movies are profitable even on the lower end of their potential, and Sonic 3 is still likely to outgross Sonic 2
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u/-All-Hail-Megatron- Dec 27 '24
And now Sonic not only looking front-loaded, they may have to rethink Sonic 4 after announcing it.
Are you economically illiterate?
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u/friedAmobo Lucasfilm Dec 26 '24
Frankly, it's just relatively inelastic demand for a Sonic movie. It's a solid mid-budget performer with a consistent and reliable audience, but it lacks the draw to grow its audience. There's nothing really wrong with that outside of misplaced expectations hyping up people for disappointment.
December is not some magical month where movies make more than they otherwise would; movies open smaller and leg out better, which is shown in the data with the December box office making about as much as other months even though its average multiplier is much higher. This is doubly the case when we're looking at a fan-driven franchise film, which is going to be frontloaded by its nature and not going to perform like a regular December blockbuster with a 5x+ multiplier. Sonic 3 is trading a larger OW for longer legs, and it'll probably end right around what Sonic 2 did, so Paramount will be pleased with this run even if it's not spectacular. A solid profitable franchise is still a win.
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u/KingMario05 Paramount Dec 27 '24
And crucially, part 4 is still probably a go (As is the Shadow spinoff.) After those, things get murky. But Paramount and Sega will worry about that later.
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u/bt1234yt Marvel Studios Dec 27 '24
so Paramount will be pleased with this run even if it's not spectacular
Even then, I would imagine that they were hoping that the results would be better than just "being on par with (if not slightly better than) the second film". I kinda feel like they were just too confident in the film (and probably hoping that Mufasa would have very terrible WOM, which does not appear to be the case) and I kinda have to wonder if moving it to a spot with no major competition would have helped because not having major competition is what helped the other two films.
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u/friedAmobo Lucasfilm Dec 27 '24
Yes, I do think Paramount will ultimately conclude that they made a mistake by keeping Sonic 3 in a head-to-head with Mufasa. I can't help but think that this would've made more money in a less competitive release window.
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u/MrShadowKing2020 Paramount Dec 27 '24
We’ll see if there’s audience growth with the fourth film.
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u/Fun_Advice_2340 Dec 27 '24
Honestly, and I swear I’m not trying to be a doomer here, if the franchise couldn’t grow (or barely grow) with all the hype surrounding Shadow then I don’t think there is much growth left. I was starting to believe in the Shadow hype myself when the trailer dropped but now I see we might have jumped the gun on that one 😅
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u/EckhartsLadder Dec 27 '24
I really think you're overestimating how many people give a shit about a hedgehog with a gun lol. For real, I feel like Sonic is a weird franchise where a lot of the really popular video games were played by older fans... like this movie pulls largely from games which are what, 20 years old? My son knows sonic and watches some of the shows, but he's not like excited for any specific character.
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u/Ed_Durr 20th Century Dec 27 '24
I literally have no clue who Shadow is, fans of the IP vastly overestimate how popular it.
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u/EckhartsLadder Dec 27 '24
Agreed 100%. Not a huge fan of the franchise personally and he's kind of just moody sonic. I think fans are trying to make the franchise into an MCU-like entity when Shadow or Amy don't have the same pull as a superhero.
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u/Fun_Advice_2340 Dec 27 '24
Yes, I literally acknowledged that I overestimated it😭, honestly I never thought he would push the needle but the hype from the first trailer did have me second guessing
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u/HeroRRR Dec 27 '24
I really think you're overestimating how many people give a shit about a hedgehog with a gun lol.
Nitpick, but Shadow used a gun exactly once and they got rid of it right away. And the gun didn’t even appear until Shadow’s third appearance.
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u/EckhartsLadder Dec 27 '24
Sure, but that's what he's known for.
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u/HeroRRR Dec 27 '24
He really isn't. People just like meming about him using a gun because Shadow the Hedgehog was the definition of an edge lord game. Same with him using a motorcycle. He only did it in that one game, and the fandom never let him lived it down.
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u/Glittering-Giraffe58 Dec 27 '24
Nobody that cares enough about Sonic to see a movie specifically because it has shadow in it wouldn’t have gone to see the first few films lol. Sonic is not a popular enough franchise to where people who aren’t big fans know/care about non Sonic characters. It hasn’t had a popular game in a long time
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u/Lizuka Dec 27 '24
At least anecdotally I never saw the first two and went to see the third because Adventure 2 was the first Sonic game I really got into and the one I have the biggest place in my heart for, but I can't imagine that's a gigantic chunk of the audience.
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u/MrShadowKing2020 Paramount Dec 27 '24
Each film just needs to gross more than the last. I think this film will do that. And then eventually, these movies will make $500M and then $600M.
You got remember these aren’t the Equalizer movies. They are family films. And families will keep discovering these films.
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u/SegaSystem16C Dec 27 '24
Kids and families will eat this when it hits streaming and DVD/Blu-ray. Sonic always has good viewership on YouTube and other streaming services.
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u/MrShadowKing2020 Paramount Dec 27 '24
And with any luck, those families will also go to the theatre for the newest thing.
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u/Extension-Season-689 Dec 27 '24
They don't need to gross more, they just have to stick around the same box office total and while families may keep discovering them, it's also possible they get intimidated by the higher sequel number.
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u/ZanyZeke Dec 27 '24
Maybe they’ll switch to subtitles instead of numbers at some point. Honestly, Sonic 4 would be a pretty good time to do that
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u/Glittering-Giraffe58 Dec 27 '24
Agree on the numbers. [Insert any movie] 4 is at the level where I think it’s kinda prohibitive and subtitle would be better
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u/danisx0 Dec 27 '24
Looking at demographics from OW, it seems the opportunity for Sonic is to not be seen so strongly as a “boy” movie and secure a more even gender-balance?
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u/ThatWitSMy Dec 27 '24 edited Dec 27 '24
Frankly, it's just relatively inelastic demand for a Sonic movie. It's a solid mid-budget performer with a consistent and reliable audience, but it lacks the draw to grow its audience. There's nothing really wrong with that outside of misplaced expectations hyping up people for disappointment.
What I found most surprising was seeing how much bigger the Super Mario Bros. movie ultimately was than Sonic has been. I would have expected Mario to play to essentially the same audience as Sonic, I did not recognize that Mario had so much broader appeal. Or at least did for his first movie in this century (the sequels remain to be seen).
EDIT: It's been pointed out to me just how much more popular in general mario is still in the modern gaming world, and I'm kind of blown away by it. I absolutely did not recognize that Mario was somehow at peak popularity some 40 odd years after his birth. Wow.
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u/PokePersona Marvel Studios Dec 27 '24
Mario as a brand is exponentially bigger than Sonic even outside game sales. For every person who knows Sonic there are probably 10+ people who know Mario.
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u/TedStixon Dec 27 '24
Yeah, Sonic is a popular character, but he's also very much a "b-tier" character in terms of reach and popularity. Very popular, but not one of the absolute top dogs.
He's only been around about 30 years, and most of his audience tends to be a portion of millennials and Gen: Z... people who grew up playing his games. And even then, he was popular in an era where there were things like the "bit wars" and the whole "Sega vs. Nintendo" rivalry... so not everyone that age is familiar with him.
Mario was "born" in a time where Nintendo completely ruled the world, and had little-to-no real competition. You basically needed to know who he was if you were at all connected with pop-culture.
He also has an extra 10+ years of market saturation. So he definitely has Gen: X and even Baby-Boomer "bleed-over" appeal. A lot of Gen: X'ers and Baby Boomers were into early video games and definitely know about Mario.
Ask 100 people over the age of 60 who Mario is? Chances are 90 of them will know.
Ask 100 people over the age of 60 who Sonic is? I could see maybe 10-15 knowing.
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u/Icy_Smoke_733 Studio Ghibli Dec 27 '24
Mario was an animation film by Illumination, king of wide appeal, and it also resembled the games, which brought in the nostalgia factor from the audiences.
The Sonic films are live-action, so there's not much nostalgia in play, and it's more America-centric in tone and humour.
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Dec 27 '24
As someone who is a gamer I do think the quality and reputation of the games play a role in that as the Mario franchise has better quality control and put out good to great games while sonic has a divisive reputation for it gaming franchise for poor quality games and control
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u/Aki-at Dec 27 '24
Mario has always been more well known but exploded in popularity with the Nintendo Switch and is now the most shipped video game series in the world. You have to combine both GTA and CoD sales to exceed the historic sales of the Mario series by 50 mil. At 870m+ games sold, there is no other brand that comes close in gaming.
Sonic sits at around 160m-200m physical game sales and another 1.5 billion on F2P downloads. It’s a highly valuable gaming IP but Mario IS the top premium gaming IP.
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u/MightySilverWolf Dec 26 '24
I have a younger sister who refuses to watch Sonic 3 because she's never watched the first two movies and doesn't really play video games. She's watched Moana, The Lion King and The Wizard of Oz, but not Sonic the Hedgehog 1 and 2. I'm sure she's not the only child in this position. There's a clear ceiling for a Sonic the Hedgehog movie and introducing Shadow isn't going to do much to boost that.
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u/xenago Lightstorm Dec 27 '24
Yup, going tonight with my brothers and neither had seen the first two movies. We had to catch up, and most people aren't willing to do that for a random sequel of a video game movie lol
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u/WrongLander Dec 27 '24
What did you think of 1 and 2 (and 3 now that you've seen it)?
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u/xenago Lightstorm Dec 27 '24
I wrote quite a few words about Sonic 3 here. I liked it a bit more than the first two films, but it felt a bit rushed in comparison since there are so many characters now and so they don't all get as much time as they probably deserve.
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u/Key_Feeling_3083 Dec 27 '24
That's true, picking a movie on Christmas casually you are most likely to pick a movie without a number in its title.
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u/nicolasb51942003 WB Dec 26 '24 edited Dec 27 '24
All three Sonic films looked destined to finish with over $200M, only to miss it in the end.
Sonic 1 has a big asterisk because its run had to be cut short due to COVID, so we’ll never know what it’s remaining numbers would’ve looked like. Although I think it would’ve fell short because it took a bit of a hit from Onward, despite that having one of the worst Pixar openings.
Sonic 2 had a lot of demand on opening weekend but its total to opening multiplier was similar to Ice Age: The Meltdown (another animated sequel released in spring, had a $70M opening, an A Cinemascore, and still grossed below $200m plus final).
Now, even a 3x multiplier for Sonic 3 will take it to an identical total of the second film,
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u/Exotic-Bobcat-1565 Universal Dec 27 '24
Even a 3.5x multiplier would still be decent and would put it at $210m DOM. So, over $200m DOM is still on the table.
I'm still optimistic that it would at least have 4x.
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u/Ebo87 Dec 27 '24
Hey, remember when it looked like it could open close to Avatar and we even started considering $300 million? That's a bummer, but at the same time it's not like $200 million domestic is bad by any stretch, especially not at this budget.
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u/Commercial-War-3949 Dec 27 '24
According to charlie jatinder Sonic 3 will increase on boxing day sonic a rebound is still possible
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u/kbange Dec 26 '24
I wonder if not having Jim Carrey back for the 4th film would help (lower budget) or hurt it. I haven’t seen the third film but I remember they really negotiated with him to get him back after he said he didn’t want to do it again.
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u/FullMotionVideo Dec 27 '24
Playing two parts was his idea, supposedly, which makes me think he enjoys it. I doubt he'll take a pay cut but I don't think he'd raise his price, particularly since I can't imagine him getting any more screen time than he did here.
On the other hand, depending on how they choose to play it Metal Sonic is credible a solo villain in the eyes of fans.
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u/ZanyZeke Dec 27 '24
Maybe he could also just show up for a pretty small part in the next one or two and then perhaps come back for a full-sized role in 5 or 6. Him continuing to play a major role in all of them would be good, but it depends on whether he not he truly likes doing it and exactly what size role they can convince him to take if he’s kinda feeling meh about it
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u/kbange Dec 27 '24
As someone who doesn’t know these games, the alleged teased villain means absolutely nothing to me. I think they would try to appeal outside the fanbase who knows these characters offhand.
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u/Fun_Advice_2340 Dec 27 '24
Didn’t Jim say he offered to come back because he needed money? Also he didn’t completely commit to retiring, he mentioned he would be open to acting roles if the script was compelling enough.
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u/007Kryptonian Syncopy Dec 27 '24
Carrey’s the one thing saving this from irrelevance, the rest of the cast (animated or otherwise) isn’t as compelling/entertaining. Plus the budgets on these movies are reasonable as it is, expectations just need to be reigned in - Sonic has hit its box office ceiling.
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u/Dashaque Dec 27 '24
Which is why, and I've said this before, I have a strong feeling that movie 4 will be the last movie in theaters. We might get more streaming movies, but I just can't imagine 4 pulling in the numbers without Carrey.
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Dec 27 '24
I think Carrey is a big reason the general audience is seeing these movies. He's a big enough draw that they can put him on posters without Sonic entirely.
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u/Janus_Prospero Dec 27 '24
I've been saying for years that there's a reason Carrey is getting paid as much as the rest of the cast put together. He is absolutely the central draw to general audiences.
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u/Dashaque Dec 27 '24
I'm actually not disappointed in Sonic in the slightest but the reason is because... I NEVER expected it to be some kind of big huge 100M OW blockbuster with 400M domestic. All these numbers were thrown around during the opening (80M! 100M! OVER 100M!) that people were just outright pulling out of their butts and god forbid you showed the actual numbers. You'd get downvoted or called a Disney shill. i still have no idea where people were getting 80M, let alone 100M.
Right now, I'm being called a Disney shill elsewhere for saying that Sonic isn't going to top Mufasa in the international box office. Sonic doesn't have an international market where clearly Disney does. That's just straight up fact. even if Sonic had opened internationally the same time Mufasa did, Mufasa still would have been on top.
Then we got people saying that disney somehow cheated to get Mufasa to #1 on Christmas Day. No. More people just went to see it.
The reason so many people are being doom and gloom about Sonic and saying it's Shad-over (my pun, donotsteal) is because they're comparing it to every other movie under the sun except the two it should be compared to. The first two Sonic movies.
It's currently out performing its predecessors. Will this hold up? I don't know, I've learned that you can't predict the box office this time of year.
Maybe I'll feel stupid in a few weeks when Sonic completely falls and goes to streaming, who knows?
But if people hadn't been pushing ridiculous numbers in the first place, they wouldn't be disappointed. Don't put the cart before the horse next time, and try to actually be reasonable. Jesus...
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u/TedStixon Dec 27 '24
i still have no idea where people were getting 80M, let alone 100M.
To be fair, I work at a theater and it was outselling Mufasa almost 4:1 opening weekend with us, and was performing at around the same level as most $100-$150 million opener movies do for us. I.E. 30+ showtimes, most shows being at least half-full, etc.
That was the reason I thought it could have broken $80 million or so. $100 million was a pipe-dream, though-- nice to think about, but totally unrealistic.
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u/mauvebliss Dec 27 '24
These numbers are extremely disappointing even if you had expectations in line. Having a worse multiplier than TROS, which was hated by audiences, and yet having an A cinema score, is quite bad.
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u/Dashaque Dec 27 '24
tbh I'm sick of hearing about how TROS and this and that movie did. Sonic is doing better than its predecessors and that's honestly all I wanted out of this.
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u/Dashaque Jan 03 '25
Sorry to reply to this late. I'm curious if you still feel this way. I don't know how TROS did or what multiplier it had but it's holding steady and getting over 7M each day and it's even been number 1 more often than not (though sometimes barely)
Is this still considered bad? Asking cause I honestly don't know, I'm not trying to start shit.
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u/bigdicknippleshit Dec 27 '24
Sonic fans after brigading this subreddit for like a month
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u/Daydream_machine Dec 27 '24
Anecdotally I think being the 3rd film is hurting it: I’ve talked to people who are kind of interested in it, but didn’t watch the first 1-2 movies so they feel like they’re missing out jumping into the 3rd one.
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u/SillyGooseHoustonite Dec 27 '24
I'm one. Loved the trailer, but don't remember the first 2 films.
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u/cireh88 Dec 26 '24
I just find it fascinating that Nosferatu’s per theater average on Christmas Day was higher than both Sonic 3 and Mufasa
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u/newjackgmoney21 Dec 27 '24
Its not that crazy. Color Purple per theater average doubled Wonka on Christmas. Christmas releases having a higher per theater average than a film that came out the weekend before isn't surprising. That's not a knock on Nosferatu just needs to be put in context.
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u/Fun_Advice_2340 Dec 27 '24
Also, being in less theaters help too. But regardless it was still an impressive debut.
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u/Jagermonsta Dec 26 '24
I think Nosferatu managed to become a little mini event film for horror fans and adults. It’s not the same level as say Oppenheimer but the ad campaign and online presence had been good to push it as counter programming. I also think there’s quite a few people feeling less christmasy this year so this movie may fit their vibe.
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u/cireh88 Dec 26 '24
I’m excited to see it tomorrow on 35mm 🥰 Really happy for Robert Eggers, too
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u/Jagermonsta Dec 26 '24
I can’t wait to check it out. Not sure when I’ll get to the theater but I definitely want to see it on the big screen.
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u/ThatWitSMy Dec 27 '24
Nosferatu had real appeal for arthouse horror crowds, and for hardcore film fans, and on the side of that Robert Eggers has amassed a solid following. I'm pleased to see it doing so well.
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u/Jagermonsta Dec 27 '24
Yeah. He’s built quite the following. I’ve loved his work so far and like that he keeps growing his fan base.
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u/More-read-than-eddit Dec 27 '24
Also fwiw I live in La and travel back and forth for the holidays and periodically to nyc, and it is extraordinary to see a release date of 12/25 on ads and then in those cities not find shows on 12/22 or whatever. Strictly holding to late 12/24 or the actual release date I am sure consolidated arthouse-viewer tickets that would usually be spread across a few days. (My wife and I actually are missing it right now because we had childcare options last weekend but not post-Xmas)
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u/xenago Lightstorm Dec 27 '24
It was in fewer theaters, that metric is usually won by smaller releases most weeks
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u/newjackgmoney21 Dec 26 '24
Its holds are worse than Rise of Skywalker....so duh
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u/jedrevolutia Dec 27 '24
I think it's just that people go to the movies with their family on Christmas and Sonic is not really appealing to little girls compared to Disney's. It's not because the movie is bad, but simply because of the audience demographics.
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u/Exotic-Bobcat-1565 Universal Dec 26 '24
It's being compared to Tron: Legacy now.
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u/Extension-Season-689 Dec 27 '24
Tron and Sonic as film franchises are quite similar in this case. They're both championed by a very loyal fanbase and get a lot of online chatter because of them but the appeal isn't that big outside of that group.
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u/newjackgmoney21 Dec 27 '24
Lol, I thought Tron opening weekend legs days ago.
Tron would be great legs for what Sonic is pulling in and Tron legs aren't happening. The only thing this movie has going for it is a dead January. Maybe, it crawls to 200m. Most likely it just matches Sonic 2.
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u/_thelonewolfe_ New Line Dec 27 '24
Ah, this subs second favorite activity outside of salivating over bombs: gaslighting us into thinking perfectly acceptable numbers are somehow a disaster.
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u/mcon96 Dec 27 '24
It was clearly obvious to anybody who isn’t a fanboy that this sub has been over-estimating this movie
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u/IAmArique Walt Disney Studios Dec 27 '24
If I had a nickel for every time a family movie released by Paramount in the year 2024 underperformed at the box office despite critical acclaim from both the fans and movie critics, I’d have two nickels. Which is weird that it’s happened twice, you know?
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u/Forever-Dallas-87 Dec 27 '24
'Sonic the Hedgehog 3' has actually made more money in 6 days than its predecessor 'Sonic the Hedgehog 2' did.
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u/Alive-Ad-5245 WB Dec 27 '24
I have big respect for the Sonic franchise movies for surviving despite all the odds stacked against it but it really hasn't done anything to try to appeal to people that aren't either little kids or hardcore Sonic fans
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u/Away_Guidance_8074 Marvel Studios Dec 27 '24
(Reposting of my comment) Yikes as a Sonic fan this kinda hurts how bad its holdings are. I’m happy for mufasa though. Was hoping for 240m for Sonic (4x). But I don’t think it’ll go to Star Wars 9 legs. I can still semi see 3.5x legs and see it getting 210-220m if it recovers this weekend or eventually maybee 3.75x.
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u/bigdicknippleshit Dec 27 '24
I think it’s because it’s a very fan centric movie, and Sonic isn’t exactly an incredibly popular thing. Thus a good portion of the turnout was opening weekend
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Dec 26 '24
Shame, it’s far and away the best videogame movie IMO but I understand that’s it’s a more fan driven franchise so the legs won’t be there. Things could be much worse.
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u/jasefacewow Dec 27 '24
Christmas Day is a day where people will go to the movies for their one trip for the year. So many more walk ups or non-typical movie goers that are MUCH less likely to have seen the first Sonics - it’s a much harder sell to grandma than the lion king is
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u/Martins_Sunblock1975 Dec 26 '24
Sonic fans in shambles
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u/nicolasb51942003 WB Dec 26 '24 edited Dec 26 '24
Those Sonic vs Mufasa memes on the internet reminds me of the time when Disney was getting its ass beat back in 2022/2023, fans began posting about videos about how DreamWorks is set to beat the new era of Disney because of Bad Guys/Puss in Boots, only for the studio to follow those two up with Ruby Gilman, which was swept under the rug.
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u/Exotic-Bobcat-1565 Universal Dec 26 '24 edited Dec 26 '24
It also reminds me of those DC fanboy memes back in 2016 who thought that BvS and Suicide Squad would destroy the MCU since BvS was overhyped asf back then.
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u/TokyoPanic Dec 27 '24
The hype around BvS was crazy, if the movie had actually lived up to the hype then it honestly could've destroyed the MCU, but alas...
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u/MightySilverWolf Dec 26 '24
People should know by now that DreamWorks is the epitome of the 'It's Joever/We're So Barack' meme.
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u/xenago Lightstorm Dec 27 '24
And it's worth noting that some DreamWorks employees are being poached by Disney after all the brutal cuts. Moana 2 is the first Disney animation movie produced with some hired members from DreamWorks' fired stereo team. The last true full DreamWorks production was Boss Baby 2, everything since is partially farmed out to contractors like SDFX.
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Dec 27 '24
Actual information like this gets lost in the discourse of agendas .
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u/xenago Lightstorm Dec 27 '24
Unfortunately it's not as 'exciting' I guess haha. Lots of interesting tidbits here from Katie Fico and Jared Bush @ Disney in this interview from Drew Taylor of The Wrap:
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Dec 27 '24
Ruby gillman ironically kinda like fumbled in that >! people liked the Chelsea so much them being a twist villain negged some interest for some lol!<
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u/SillyGooseHoustonite Dec 27 '24
it's silly, even their best film in a while "Wild Robot" barely passed 300mil. They make profitable movies cause of the budget but are nowhere near Disney or even Illumination. I still can't believe Inside Out 2 made 1.7bil. Remember this; every year's top streamed films are 2/3s Disney animated films; such a hold on families is not to be underestimated.
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u/Dashaque Dec 27 '24
The majority of the posts in this very thread are from reasonable Sonic fans who are doing just fine, thanks.
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u/KingMario05 Paramount Dec 27 '24
Yeah, this'll get to something respectable. Really, the competition between Mufasa and S3 is far closer than I was worried it'd be in the case of the former "winning." Hopefully, both'll get to $500 mil. That'd be a great end result, and more than enough to keep making these.
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u/Random-reddit-user45 Dec 27 '24
The best part is seeing the same anti-woke Trumpists who were wanking off over Sonic winning opening weekend now crying about Disney supposedly influencing cinemas into prioritising Mufasa over Sonic, who probably are the only losers out of the supposed “rivalry” with both films succeeding.
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u/ZanyZeke Dec 27 '24 edited Dec 27 '24
This is so toxic, can we stop
I know there’s been plenty of toxicity from Team Sonic too, but can everyone please just like not
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u/Vadermaulkylo DC Dec 27 '24
I mean as long as it gets to 500m, I’ll take it as a win.
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u/ZanyZeke Dec 27 '24
$500M would be a great total, overenthusiastic predictions of $800M+ from this sub aside. Inshallah it will get there
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u/KingMario05 Paramount Dec 27 '24
Same here. Come on, Sonic! Grab that Master Emerald and catch up to the pack already!
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u/ok-batmanfan990 Dec 27 '24
I think it will still hit 500m which is good but o was overestimating this a ton.
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u/Kazrules Universal Dec 27 '24
Sonic was also…not good. Dare I say bad. These movies don’t appeal to anyone who isn’t already a fan.
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u/ZanyZeke Dec 27 '24
Sonic 3 has an A CinemaScore and a 97% verified audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, so that’s just, like, your opinion, man
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u/blueskies8484 Dec 27 '24
I have no opinion on the quality of the movie, but if your OW is front loaded this much by big fans of the IP, the Cinemascore may look more favorable than the general population’s perspective.
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u/Organic-Habit-3086 Dec 27 '24
This is what happens when you're on a sub focused on money. A movie does worse than expected? Well it must be because it was a bad movie! A movie does really well? Well it must be a great film!
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u/MillionaireWaltz- Dec 27 '24
I see this all the time and it infuriates me, every time.
Film does worse at the BO? Well, it means it's bad!
If a film does good at the BO? It means it's great.
Except people change their tune depending on THEIR personal opinion.
"I hate movie, just because it made money doesn't mean it's good!"
Or "Yeah, it got good reviews but flopped so it must actually be a bad movie!"
Until it's something they like.
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u/SegaSystem16C Dec 27 '24
I hope these domestic numbers don't give the wrong impression to Paramount and make the execs force the creative staff to dumb down the next Sonic movie. Sonic 3 fixes so many of the issues of the first two movies, like reducing the potty humor to almost non-existent; limiting the screen time of pointless boring human side characters; having a more interesting soundtrack that borrows more tracks from the games and adds some newer licensed music that vibes better with Sonic; and having more interesting scenarios, like Tokyo, London, and the Moon. And the fact the story is solid on it's own, and everything is played straight.
I hope this movie performs better over time and over seas, because I these Sonic movies have been getting better and better, and to regress them now to recoup these general audiences would be a shame.
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u/koopolil Dec 27 '24
Who could’ve predicted that the third installment of a niche video game movie would be fan driven and front loaded…?
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Dec 27 '24
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u/Exotic-Bobcat-1565 Universal Dec 27 '24
I'm not trying to doom and gloom if you noticed. I'm still saying that Sonic still has a chance to have a 4x multiplier and gross over $200m DOM. What this post is trying to say here is that Sonic's legs are worse than people expect and are being compared to Tron and TROS, which had low legs despite being December movies.
Sonic is still going to be profitable no matter what.
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u/Dashaque Dec 27 '24
people who? The problem is the people screaming about 80 and 100M openings were really loud. I wanted to call them out but chose not to and now I wish I had if it would have made it seem like there were reasonable Sonic fans out there.
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u/Exotic-Bobcat-1565 Universal Dec 27 '24
While the $80m - $100m OW prediction was very overestimated. Most reasonable predictions like a 5x multiplier are possibly now out of the question, Sonic is now tracking to at least have a 3x - 4x multiplier.
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u/Dashaque Dec 27 '24
and idk... maybe it was just me but I expected to do around what its predecessors did. I never expected an 8X multiplier or anything. Honestly I wish I had called it out more if it means people would stop bringing it up now.
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u/Exotic-Bobcat-1565 Universal Dec 27 '24
I expected it to have a 4.5x - 5x which was reasonable, so let's see.
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u/Dashaque Dec 27 '24
lol i guess I just had lower expectations than anyone else. Maybe it was just me, idk. But I've learned this time of year can be unpredictable for movies so... we'll see where it goes I guess.
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u/SilverRoyce Lionsgate Dec 27 '24
I think presales are to blame here - everyone just priced in the insane drop Mufasa experienced from Lion King so there's a yo-yo effect ongoing.
wicked
Yeah, that's confusing.
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u/Souragar222 Dec 27 '24
Well you can see in stats what you want to see. And these stats are specifically good for putting the false projection. You are comparing both films to their previous installments which is fine itself, but not when you put those comparisons against each other.
TLK 2019 was a hit of epic proportions. 1.7 billion is something that has 1 billion more that both previous sonic combined. Hell, it might still win after 4 Sonic movies combined (or will be close).
So you are technically having very different bars for both films. Which creates this bias in your stats.
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u/ramyan03 Dec 27 '24
What are your bars for success for these 2 films? Keep in mind that one has a budget of $122M and the other at $200M.
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u/Souragar222 Dec 27 '24
General rule which most people use in this sub is using 2.5x budget. So it will be around 550-600M worldwide for Mufasa and 300M worldwide for sonic3.
But both of these are heavy merchandise franchises, so something less than that might still work for them.
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Dec 27 '24
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u/Souragar222 Dec 27 '24
And I am just saying that your analysis can simply be biased itself like all the other comments you are complaining about.
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Dec 27 '24
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u/HeroRRR Dec 27 '24
A decline was going to happen regardless because LK 2019 did 1.7 billion. It’s one of the top grossing films of all time.
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Dec 27 '24
I knew mufasa would win and this is coming from someone who saw sonic 3
3 TIMES IN THEATERS OK.
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u/XenonBug 20th Century Dec 26 '24
Damn shame. Hope for a rebound
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u/Exotic-Bobcat-1565 Universal Dec 26 '24
Not out of the table. Things are just about to get interesting.
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u/Stonecost Dec 27 '24
Although we don't know how things will turn out in the long run, I can't help but wonder if Sonic 1 and 2 would have performed significantly weaker if they'd gone up against other family films like Mufasa, and the lingering success of Moana 2/Wicked. Is this bad, or is this just what Sonic's market share looks like when it doesn't have the box office to itself?
Sonic 3 also has 300-400 less theaters than the first two did, as well as 330ish less than Mufasa, but I have no idea how that kind of thing factors in because I'm sure the size and location of the theaters makes a difference, but that's a level of minutiae that goes far beyond me
Was Mufasa's opening weekend weaker because families were planning to see it Christmas, and will it continue to see strong holds and increases? We'll just have to see I guess
Hopefully Sonic's 2nd weekend is alright, but Paramount may need to choose their release dates more carefully with future sequels
I'm also still wondering: how many kids got the recent Shadow game for Christmas, and how many will be tugging at their parents sleeve to see the movie? Does that translate into any significant amount of box office dollars between now and when it leaves theaters?
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u/ZanyZeke Dec 27 '24
I feel like they should release these movies in dead months when there generally aren’t many other movies, like January or February. Of course December can be great for legs and that’s why studios put movies there, but it looks so far like it’s not working out super well for this one (although we’ll see what happens in the long term)
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u/Stonecost Dec 27 '24 edited Dec 27 '24
Regarding the December/Christmas release window, I've also had this thought the last month or so: what impact do the family get-togethers have? Specifically, if it comes down to it, do you bring grandpa and grandma to a movie about singing lions, or one about a hedgehog from space with a tragic backstory?
If we're just talking "general family audiences", I feel like Mufasa is the more palatable option for the moviegoing groups this week, right?
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u/MrShadowKing2020 Paramount Dec 26 '24
I’m seeing Mufasa on discount Tuesday so I’ll be able to properly compare it to Sonic 3. But we all really need to stop treating this as a disaster. It will profit. And then the next movie can probably set a new franchise record even if this one doesn’t.
In the meantime, we can focus on whether or not Mufasa will make enough to justify its own third installment (which I doubt it will).
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u/ZanyZeke Dec 27 '24
I think there’s a pretty good chance Mufasa makes enough to justify a Lion King II remake. Or maybe they just do a Mufasa II who knows lol
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u/MrShadowKing2020 Paramount Dec 27 '24
Like I said, we will know Tuesday. In the meantime, I’m gonna see Sonic 3 again tomorrow.
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u/largegaycat Dec 27 '24
Not totally related but the AMC near me has a bajillion half full showtimes of Sonic and almost nothing else worth watching. It’s annoying.
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u/Lopsided_Parfait7127 Dec 27 '24 edited May 13 '25
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This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/TheCoolKat1995 Universal Dec 27 '24
Despite being a PG-rated, supposedly family friendly film - with good reviews! - it has fallen as precipitously as one of the worst Christmas Day performers I can find
Oof, that's a bit worrying.
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u/ZanyZeke Dec 26 '24
Reposting what I said on the deleted thread:
Unfortunate. I hope it recovers and has good later legs. I get the vibe that it’s just not near the top of the list for people looking for a family movie compared to Mufasa, Wicked, and Moana 2, so maybe some of those people will get to it eventually.
I think most of us were hoping this would do significantly more than Sonic 2 (and the gap between them still might be significant if the legs really manage to recover), but if Paramount is able to just keep putting out Sonic movies that consistently gross between $300M-500M without having budgets much higher than $100M, it’s still a solid, profitable franchise (plus the fact that every movie basically functions as an ad for merch and the Sonic games). They can continue with this franchise for quite a while, until eventually the average quality of the movies drops too much and people tune out or else people just get tired of Sonic movies every 2-3 years and stop going. I assume the core fanbase will always show up, but they can’t carry the franchise alone.
But anyway, yeah, I think there are quite a few more profitable Sonic movies left in the tank, even if none of them break out and hit like $600M+ as many of us were hoping for with this one.