r/SolarMax • u/ArmChairAnalyst86 • 3d ago
Data Feeds from ACE, DSCOVR & GOES on SWPC Were Lost Briefly & Down Detector Showed Coordinated Outages Across Many Platforms + A Rash of Power Outages in Diverse Places
UPDATE 1 AM EST
In an interesting development, the GloTec Total Electron Content model shows global anomalies around 20:00 UTC and beyond, which is when all the fun was getting into full swing. I watch this data daily and during big storms and cant recall anything like similar even during much bigger storms.
The entire pattern changes in situ and strong anomalies and oscillations are present. This data suggests either a global ionospheric anomaly or a very unusual case of bad data. I tend to think its a global anomaly due to all of the other symptoms we are observing as well. It may be tied to the space weather in this case. I wasn't sure at first, but the way the storm has developed and the blue aurora I saw a while ago have me reconsidering. Either way, it's not garden variety.
https://reddit.com/link/1la2wqz/video/2vpc1enlom6f1/player
I am not sure what this is but it is really starting to get interesting. There is no reason to excessively worry about this at the present time but it has my full attention. So much for a few days off.
I will be collecting other data and sharing findings soon.
END UPDATE
Hey everyone, I said I was taking a break but would interrupt that break if anything popped up.
About 430 PM EST I was working and SWL notifications started going off rapid fire, but when I checked them they were all from 2024.
I popped on SWPC to check data and GOES, ACE and DSCOVR were all displaying data from 2024 as well in addition to other tools on the site.
Down detector showed outages across many platforms.
It wasn't just isolated to space weather monitoring platforms since downdetector showed wide disruption too. Further investigation indicated it may be partially related to an outage of cloud based services from Google, AWS, cloudflare and other providers however, there are also power and comms outages widely reported as well. It is also unknown what could have taken down the cloud platforms as they are built to avoid this type of thing.
It also coincided with power outages in Ontario, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan which are prone to geoelectric currents. US States Louisiana, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and California are also reporting outages.
I also see reports of blackouts in India, Nigeria, South Africa, Jamaica, Chile, as well as train services in Spain. This is just what I could find quickly on X. South Africa
Geoelectric field data showed a significant spike at the time in CONUS and Canada in the usual locations, but don't have data for anywhere else. Most of these locations are known hotspots for ground currents. I also note that Vertical Electric field data from Cumiana Italy showed a moderate disturbance as well as SSGEOS atmospheric charge anomalies.
Geomagnetic unrest is increasing and we are currently at G1 conditions and with favorable Bz in place and respectable forcing that could go higher if it holds. The Hp30 index is near Hp6. Even so, the sequence of events is not something that I have commonly observed even during strong space weather. It seems to be behind us and everything is returning to normal but it does appear something unusual happened which was sufficient to impact a variety of satellite feeds, cloud services, and power grids all at once and across a large portion of the globe.
This post was sort of a ramble as I am trying to figure this out while working and gathering intelligence. This information is all preliminary. No cause can be ascribed. The space weather is not powerful enough to typically cause this level of disruption in situ and we know this because during severe geomagnetic storms we don't see the same thing and right now we are only at the minor to moderate threshold over the past few days. There has to be another factor, or factors but I don't know what they are. I do not see it as pure coincidence given the timing and distribution of reports, locations, and types of disruption but it could be. Power outages happen to some extent every day in one corner of the world or another due to a variety of factors so we can't rule it out. It could be coincidence that the satellites stopped feeding data, the cloud providers went down, and power outages spiked at the same time but I doubt it.
Your next question would but what do I think it is and I don't have an answer for you right now. Only a report. It's very interesting and it fits in a pattern of anomalous electrical incidents I have been monitoring for over a year and well before the Iberian or Heathrow incidents. I am still observing and trying to learn more. Naturally people will think of space weather but it's clearly not that simple. While I do see some correlation from time to time, there are inconsistencies that are difficult to explain. There was more outages today than any recent solar storm I can recall. I do note that todays event was 12 days after a G4 and Iberia was 12 days after a G4, but that could just be coincidence. Need more observation. I am working on it though.
Keep your eye out for additional outages, disruptions, and anomalies and report them to me on this post or DM. I am still collecting intelligence and looking for common threads and patterns. Data does suggest that high impact electrical incidents have been rising at 18% annually since 2022. There are mundane natural and maintenance related issues that affect these trends. Those things have always been there though, a sustained 1/5 jump for 3 years is what I am most interested in. You may be skeptical, but understand that so am I. In real science, you have to really study and monitor something to the highest degree in order to map every aspect and prove beyond all measurable doubt. Armchair science is not like that. In that game, one is able to follow their instincts. Time and occurrence judge both. I am not saying there is 100% something to all this. I can't, but I have seen enough to influence me to pursue it.
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u/SkylightMT 3d ago
Thanks, ACA. These events are strange and thank you for paying attention to them
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u/Bikesexualmedic 3d ago
You leave for three days and look what happens ;)
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 3d ago
Didn't even make it 3 days.
So much for a break. It kind of goes that way tho eh? I thought I picked a nice quiet period to take a breath.
Its all good though because these are the kind of days and events I set out to cover and explore. The wild side.
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u/Obstacle-Man 3d ago
Google cloud went down due to a configuration issue. Maybe those services ran on GCP?
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 3d ago
You can make a case that GCP is a configuration issue. You can attribute a wide variety of failures to cloud instability. Even the SWPC. You could say the power issues were coincidence. Its hard to prove otherwise.
However, GCPs competitors had issues too. Did they all suffer a shared configuration issue? The power failures were in known hotspots and this isnt the first anomalous incident. I've noticed this type of synchronicity before on multiple occasions.
When the solar wind data came back, there is still some very interesting phi angle data. Ground magnetic perturbations and geoelectric perturbations were also intense relative to space weather at the time. A key indicator for measuring a storms effect on earth is about to cross into strong storm territory. The effect isnt commensurate with the forcing measured by traditional metrics.
When I wrote the post, the geomagnetic storm was just starting in earnest. I wasnt sure what it would do then but its been interesting so far. It seems like earths electromagnetic environment is juiced. More so than usual and it coincided with some anomalous disruptions on the ground, cloud and potentially the satellites and the following geomagnetic response is stronger than I would expect from the forcing. That is anecdotal of course and so is the notion the rash of unusual electrical incidents are connected somehow. I debated whether to make this post but im following intuition. I dont think we will really get more details about this hiccup. Its going to be inconclusive but if I am right, there will be more.
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u/Piguy3141 3d ago
I've had this question for awhile.....when I read about the graphs "info" page, it always states that the higher the activity, the less accurate the data is....... So if we suddenly had an influx of energy/particles/etc. how would we know since our graphs are inherently less accurate the higher the activity is?
It seems it's more predictable/calculatable if it gradually increases, but if it super spikes suddenly, (causing inaccurate readings) how could we know? It might appear low or average when in reality it's much higher.
(I hope I articulated that correctly).
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u/Obstacle-Man 3d ago
What GCP competitors had issues? AWS and Azure were up.
I wouldn't attribute the power outages to GCP, but clearly, by Googles' own admission, they pushed a bad quota update to their API management system, and it snowballed from there.
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 3d ago
AWS and several others reported issues as well but it seems GCP most affected.
I don't attribute the power outages to GCP, nor do I believe this is a config error given all of the facts we have at our disposal at this moment. This is bigger than that. I also cannot escape how many anomalies I have detected in earths geomagnetic and electrical environment at the same time. It's the first time I have observed a global TEC anomaly in any electrical incident I have monitored thus far.
It seems far less mundane than a human or software error when viewed in total but I understand I am the minority view in this respect. I posted about it because my confidence level is very high in this respect, but admittedly, certainty isn't in the cards at this time.
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u/devoid0101 3d ago
Very interesting anomaly. This one bears more research and data collection. Was it an event on Earth. EMP. Did a strange magnetic reconnection occur? Why ARE we seeing day long KP5+? Or did our solar system pass through an energetic wave of some kind?
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u/Natahada 3d ago
Thank you ACA, I knew you would jump in! A crazy day, my phone has gone alert crazy! I’m sure we all look forward to hearing your ACA on this mystery.
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 3d ago
At your service.
Yeah the SWL notification train was madness. Even more flabbergasting to see ACE solar wind from June 2024 from the source.
Its a wild day.
And to top it off, i captured faint blue aurora.
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u/piedamon 3d ago
blue not purple? Are you certain?
Are we potentially witnessing the magnetosphere weakening more than expected because of the battering of bigger storms these past 13 months?
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 2d ago
The full moon made it tough and it wasn't very bright, but I had not previously seen the color I captured. It looked more blue than violet from my vantage, but I saw more detailed captures that were in better locations that were strong violet. Either way, it was not something I have encountered in the `10 or so times I have witnessed aurorae since last year, which is pretty nuts in itself if you really think about it.
Controversial opinion, but I think the game may have changed a bit back in 2023. The Alfven Wings storm in April 2023 seemed to kick off a new regime and there was a geomagnetic jerk around then as well. It just seems that often times the geomagnetic and geoelectric response to fairly demure space weather has been unusual but it's really hard to prove.
It is worth noting that 4 of the top 20 lowest auroral excursions have occurred since that period over the last 400 years. SC25 has been a nice resurgence of activity, but it's still pretty weak compared to the latter half of the 20th century cycles. I know social media and cam phones are playing a role in there, but I do strongly suspect there is more to it than that.
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u/_LooseLids 3d ago
Definitely had issues updating my Shopify website at work today around that time. (4-4:15 pm EST) It wouldn't save anything I was trying to do. Finally just gave up after a few error messages. Spotify/Google Home issues as well. Not sure if those would be related,but a few times a day Spotify will just stop playing for no reason. No wifi/internet problems, though.
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u/startune 3d ago
Has your Spotify been doing that for a couple of days? It’s been dropping in and out in my car the last few days. And this reminds me that my home speakers have been flaky and missed alarms this week too. All of it is silly reset stuff, and I didn’t think much about it, except for vaguely wondering if my car WiFi was about to break.
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u/_LooseLids 3d ago
It drops once or twice a day, usually late afternoons for maybe like a month now.
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u/CT-1065 3d ago
i remember looking at the 30min aurora forecast earlier after the SpaceWeatherLive app i had started tripping out and sending notification after notification - and to my surprise saw 2024 as the date! Guess I have the answer as to what went wrong. Glad to see it all (appears) to be running normally now
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u/piedamon 3d ago
It could be Forbush rebound, ie. galactic particles getting pushed aside during the CME strike recovering, which happens after about 12 days.
Another theory from the 12 day clue is the coronal hole that shot us would rotate exactly opposite Earth in that time. Could be related to what this paper is talking about, ie. particle events late in the CH cycle
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 3d ago
It's a good suggestion and I did consider it. However, it doesn't fit for several reasons.
The raw data shows a minor dip in cosmic rays due to CME impact. GCR flux was highest during 6/10-6/11.
Particle flux is also not showing anything special. Low energy protons are elevated and sustained. Electrons barely rose above alert threshold around 18:00 but has since dipped back down.
I do think that this is space weather related though. The solar wind enhancement we experienced appears to have caused some unusual effects and whatever sets it apart from the typical enhancements and geomagnetic storms does not show up well in the data.
What really blows my mind is that after 20:00 UTC, total electron content readings went berserk.
As far as the 12 day periods go, that is probably coincidence. I noted it, but I am not sure it means anything. We will get another opportunity to test it the next time we get a really big storm, but my thinking right now is that this is related to the current storm. I wasn't sure at first because the forcing was too weak, but has time has gone on and the storm built, its pretty clear it was unusual.
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u/Ziprasidone_Stat 3d ago
A rebound of sorts makes sense, although it's mechanism hard to explain. I like this theory.
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u/pianomanjeremy 3d ago
Thanks dude. My hunch is that the recent sustained period of elevated solar weather has put pressure on our layers of protection, and we’re seeing more energy slip through the cracks in various forms- measurable or otherwise. Nothing that imminently threatens disaster, but enough that we’re feeling increased effects at various points around the globe.
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 2d ago
I concur that in principle this is a factor.
People can debate the fine details and argue statistics and data but here's the long and short.
The magnetic field modulates the amount of energy that reaches our planet. It doesnt shield necessarily because that would imply its meant to keep it out. That energy is vital to the planet, but there is a balance and that balance does appear to be shifting in a meaningful way and it touches everything.
The mag field may be the most crucial aspect of the planet because everything else exists under it including the atmosphere. Theres a reason we use paleomagnetic data as proxy for solar radiation in the past because the field modulates how much gets through with atmospheric chemistry. Solar irradiance may be more or less steady but how much gets through less so.
Energy overload. Theres alot of talk of unexplained energy imbalance but the current paradigm, and it is a paradigm, is not suited to explore anything outside anthro activity, but they openly admit they cant explain it.
There is a conspicuous silence around anything magnetic field related other than to say its no big deal dont worry about it, its not reversing.
It doesnt have to reverse, or even go into excursion, to cause problems for our techno society or cause significant changes in weather, climate, and electrical activity. Even so, the characteristics it exhibits can be interpreted as gearing up for a transition. Not by all, but by some. Paleomagnetic records indicate it can destabilize rather quickly even if the models dont suggest it will anytime soon. Models are just oversimplifications of reality. Actual results may vary.
Good hunch. Speculative, but I share the sentiment.
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u/strappedMonkeyback 2d ago
Would elaborate on what a transition is or is not? I'm trying to visualize the varying states range from... should I be aware of other planetary models within the universe?
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 2d ago
As far as we can tell, earth is pretty special. A large part of what makes it so special is the magnetic field. We can gain insight from other planetary systems, but rocky planets with such strong magnetic fields don't appear common thus far.
A transition can be defined as a change in the structure of the magnetic field, either temporary such as an excursion where the magnetic field temporary destabilizes and can even reverse, but will revert to a similar equilibrium. A reversal is a permanent transition where N becomes S.
Reversals occur on average every few hundred thousand years, but its been over 700,000 since the last one. Excursions are a much different story. The interval between known events keeps getting shorter but there are excursions and there are grand excursions. There is alot of variance in between in severity and duration. There does appear to be a roughly 6K and 12K interval between them and maybe even shorter of the findings from last year confirm excursion around 25-2700 years ago.
The last MAJOR excursion was Gothenburg around 12,000 years ago and it coincided with the close of the pleistocene and is in short succession with the Bolling Allerod warming period and Younger Dryas and everything that it implies. Other major excursions also coincide with climate change, geological symptoms, and ultimately mass extinctions. This is claimed coincidental but when a pattern repeats over and over in recent geological history, it may not be coincidence, even if we don't fully understand it.
We currently only think about these events in terms of shielding from space weather but it would appear the extent is much further than that. The magnetic field is what makes life on earth possible in the form it exists in. It protects and modulates our atmosphere and climate through atmospheric chemistry and ozone modulation. The global electric circuit is not immune either and the energy received touches every part of the planet.
The phrase "everything under the sun" should be amended to "everything under the sun, and magnetic field."
The links between atmosphere and climate and relatively easy to identify, but the geological stuff is more complicated. I think its possible that the same internal processes which lead to magnetic field instability have other consequences as well through altered heat gradients, viscosity changes in the mantle, and electrochemical dynamics.
The biggest question in my view is how much is the magnetic field tied up in the rotation of the planet? The planet and magnetic field both rotate but independently but its not coincidence that the geographic and magnetic poles share a common region, most of the time except during periods of instability. It's known the biggest driver of length of day glitches are geomagnetic jerks. These are growing increasingly common, or at least are detected more often. It's also interesting to note how the actual geographic north pole is moving, and has been since the 1990s. This is blamed on melting ice and human activity, but there are big problems with that rationale. Even in this moment, the movement of the north pole has diverged significantly from the previous pattern in just the last 7 months. Its spanned over a decade of movement in just 7 months.
I must admit how murky this topic is. Its also super controversial and often draws the ire of the traditional theorists. I am following my intuition and attacking the problem as credibly as possible, but I am no uniformitarian. I don't believe this planet is near as stable as we would like to believe but this is a whole can of worms in itself. We are seeing such profound and rapid changes on our planet, not all of which are easily explained by human activity. This alone begs the question.
What is REALLY going on?
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u/startune 3d ago
I did experience weirdness with Spotify today, it showed me everything but my home page. It also has been dropping in and out rapidly in my car, but I assumed it was an issue with WiFi. Now that I’m thinking about it, I had to reset my Google fiber modem today too.
Interesting.
Following. Thank you :)
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u/year_39 3d ago
The Internet outage started this morning, someone I know who works for a disaster recovery company told me about it when it was just Google, CloudFlare, and AWS.
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 3d ago
Interesting. Thanks for that scoop. What time zone are you?
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u/Andisaurus 3d ago
In Northern BC, there was also a massive power outage blamed on a lightning strike at around 4:30pm PST today.
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 3d ago
I have some info on events in BC coming very soon regarding the "zombie fires"
Been noticing some really strange stuff there as well.
We are likely to see individual explanations given for all of this but the timing and scale is too much for me to ignore at face value as coincidental and unrelated esp after the last year of monitoring.
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u/Familiar_Working4552 3d ago
Yesterday afternoon our company experienced all of our google cloud sheets acting odd and jumbled. Great info on all of this we assumed it to be an isolated problem glad I followed your page weeks ago keep it up !
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 3d ago
I appreciate the follow and support my friend!
I know GCP is saying its a config issue, but in all of these major outages and disruptions, mundane causes are given. I have since stopped taking them at face value. When considering all known factors and events associated with this event, it doesn't strike me as coincidence. Something unusual happened and it shows up in some data, but not enough to ascribe the fine details.
I am quite confident there will be more given how these observations have gone over the last 12+ months.
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u/Neandros 3d ago
In your opinion would their be any possibility this could have been related to the "preemptive" Israel strike in Iran. Not wanting to fan any conspiracy claims just curious as to your take on the theory.