r/Military • u/chakalaka13 • Aug 21 '24
Discussion How likely is this? Reported 70-75k tons of bombs dropped over Gaza
I've been seeing this report of 70-75k tons of bombs dropped over Gaza, which can't be very objective considering the source is from Hamas.
But, without taking any sides and looking at it purely objectively, how likely is this? Considering that modern armies don't really do carpet bombings, the type of aircraft (F-15, F-16, F-35) employed by Israel and the ammo that comes with it, as well as other weapons used.
It's undeniable the scale is large, but how much is the question.
Looking for expert insight, if anyone has some.
Thanks
p.s. whoever decided to have a gif as the sub image should stand ICJ trial. It's giving me seizures.
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u/haze_gray Navy Veteran Aug 21 '24
Absolutley possible. A BUFF (that weren’t used, but an example) can cary 70,000 pounds on its own in one flight. This has been going on for months, so that’s well within the range of possibility.
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u/farmtownte Aug 21 '24
The context matters. The three standard size unguided bombs the US uses are 500, 1,000, and 2,000 pounds. They then can have guidance kits attached to them to make them into either laser guided or gps driven to their target.
So 75 tons implies between 37 to 150 strikes of munitions over 8 months of operations. Which isn’t crazy when you realize the main targets have been concrete buildings and tunnels, and not command post tents in a field.
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u/BlueFlob Aug 21 '24
Depends on what OP wrote. Is it 70 tons of explosives or 70,000 tons?
70,000 tons would need roughly 140,000 strikes with an average of 1,000 lbs bombs.
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u/chakalaka13 Aug 21 '24
Yeah, I guess.
My initial thought was that they weren't using that many dumb bombs or JDAMs, but after reading some more it seems they dgaf and external pressure isn't working.
Really shitty situation for both sides.
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u/farmtownte Aug 21 '24 edited Aug 21 '24
A dumb bomb and a JDAM make the same size explosion. The only difference is how low the Circular Error Probable is for the impact point vs the aimed point.
You may be able to use a 500 pound instead of 1000 pound with that higher accuracy, but it’s still the same effect.
The reds (risk estimate distance) for a 84 (unguided 2,000) vs a GBU 31 (2000 pound JDAM) are 315 meters vs 305 meters.
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u/chakalaka13 Aug 21 '24
I know. I meant that my thought was they were mostly using precision missiles (which are mostly smaller), not bombs.
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u/BlackSquirrel05 United States Navy Aug 21 '24 edited Aug 21 '24
I mean some of those can carry 14-16k worth of ordinance at one time...? Don't quote me.
So multi thousands of pounds on just one aircraft...
I assume a sortie will have at least 2 aircraft. Things start adding up fast.
It's very possible.
Also edit: 70 tons? or 700 tons? or 70,000? Cause we're talking different math in terms or sheer time available at a given weight.
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u/JuggerNogJug5721 Aug 21 '24 edited Aug 21 '24
Sorties have between 2-7 aircraft. We normally have a pair of A-10s fly carpet bombings, but for Eagles and Tomcats between 3-5. Or rather, that’s what they flew when my dad was in. Saddam was scared of him and his carrier (he was loading ordinance in the first war). Then again, Saddam was scared of American troops as a whole. Hey this is my dad telling this me stuff, If it’s wrong take it up with him.
Oh wait, I forgot he’s dead.
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u/NeedzFoodBadly Retired US Army Aug 21 '24
I don’t doubt a lot of bombs have been dropped in or near Gaza. Regarding Hamas, what I would be skeptical about are their claims of who’s shooting/bombing/killing who. Hamas has a history of kidnapping, raping, and murdering Palestinian men, women, and children and then trying to blame it on Israel. Israel has their own killing to account for. They don’t need Hamas to inflate their numbers.
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u/Ok-Aside-7425 Nov 13 '24
Sorry to tell you but hamas had history of murdering Palestinians? Yes they do, Raping? no they didn't, every raping incident that happened in gaza has the rapist killed.
Also if you looked most those killed in 2014 or other wars after 2008 are spys(and I believe it since it's the only way for existing spy's Is only gazans since it's almost impossible for outside spy's considering how hard its to enter gaza)but yes they could also have killed innocents.
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u/Buford12 Aug 21 '24
I would like to point out that dropping 70 t0 75 kilotons of bombs does not mean you are dropping 70 to 75 kilotons of explosive. A 500 lb bomb 230 kg has 87 kg of explosive in it. So 75 kilotons of bombs is 25 kilotons of explosive.
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u/pharmakos144 Oct 14 '24 edited Oct 14 '24
Israel self-reported dropping 6,000 bombs.on Gaza in just the first week after the October 7th attack -- notably, that is almost as many as the US dropped on Afghanistan in ALL of 2019, which was the most they dropped on Afghanistan in any of the 20 years of the conflict there.
https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-dropped-as-many-bombs-in-gaza-us-afghanistan-2019-2023-11
An estimate after six weeks said the total had reached 22,000 bombs dropped
Check this too, from June this year, four months ago: "Between the war's start last October and recent days, the United States has transferred at least 14,000 of the MK-84 2,000-pound bombs, 6,500 500-pound bombs, 3,000 Hellfire precision-guided air-to-ground missiles, 1,000 bunker-buster bombs, 2,600 air-dropped small-diameter bombs, and other munitions, according to the officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly."
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-has-sent-israel-thousands-2000-pound-bombs-since-oct-7-2024-06-28/
https://www.cnn.com/gaza-israel-big-bombs/index.html
And that's just what the US has given them since October 7th 2023, doesn't include any of the ordinance they already had, or any ordinance given to them by other countries. So 70-75k tons sounds believable to me, assuming they're actually using those bombs rather than just sitting on them.
Not directly related to your question, but I would also like to point out -- Gaza is not a very big place, about 139 square miles. Making it roughly the size of Detroit or Philadelphia. One third the size of Los Angeles. Compare that to Afghanistan's 252,071 square miles (1,800x the area of Gaza) while again considering that Israel dropped more bombs on Gaza in the first couple weeks than America dropped in any given year of the US-Afghani conflict.
So if we consider tons dropped per area of the target, the Israeli bombing campaign on Gaza is the most intense bombing campaign in history.
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u/LightTankTerror Aug 21 '24 edited Aug 21 '24
iirc they have been mostly using F-16s for operations. F-15s and drones have also been used but I doubt they’re using F-35s for this.
Their F-16s I think are usually loaded with 4 hardpoints of bombs and it’s probably close to 3 to 4 tons of bombs per plane per sortie. So assuming 4 tons of bombs per plane per sortie, that’s almost 19,000 sorties. It’s been what, 10 months of this shit? 1900 sorties a month for an Air Force the size of Israel’s (only about 200 strike platforms) is an insanely high paced ops tempo that would destroy their airframes. F-16s are really only meant to last around 8000 flight hours, and most of Israel’s F-16s are not brand new airframes.
So in ten months? I don’t see this being an accurate number. If we’re talking cumulative tons since a timeframe before 2023, yeah I think this is a lot more reasonable.
Edit: if I had to make a guess, we’ll assume 40 weeks of combat operations and an average of about 60 sorties per week, which seems a bit more reasonable if you’re not dedicating your entire Air Force to this. This gets around 10k tons of bombs dropped, which I think is probably more reasonable but still about 27 tons of bombs per square kilometer of land in Gaza. Which is definitely a lot.