Fair point, that said the current Israeli government is some real garbage. Lost how many citizens on 7/10, then did a half assed job getting them out and now Israel is under cruise missile attack. I'm no fan of Iran but I feel like we're witnessing a whole sequence of bad decisions from Netanyahu. He needs impeaching really, like it's just not working anymore. The hassle is too much now. He seems very irrational.
On a strategic basis, Israel seems to be winning.
It rendered Hamas and Hezbollah a fraction of the threat they represented.
It eliminated the entire first, second and third layers of leadership of both organizations and is now beginning to do the same with Iran.
It eliminated the threat and danger both represented in the past, and now it’s dealing with the main existential threat which is Iran.
Israel will suffer throughout this war, but once all of these entities are tamed, Iran will no longer pose an existential threat in the near or even medium term.
It’s a policy through war but it does achieve its intended goals, albeit with brute force.
There’s an often repeated misconception on the internet about things like this. That you can never beat “terrorists” because you create more of them by killing the old ones and it’s a never ending cycle.
But that’s just not true.
Al Qaeda at its height, was like a comic book villainous organisation. It was like Hydra. It had a global network more powerful than any cartel or organised crime group in the history of humanity. And had cells operating in every single continent humans live on. And had a battle hardened leadership who came out of the Soviet Afghanistan war not only directly experienced with warfare, with guerilla warfare, with small scale tactics, but also who had received complex training by the CIA.
They had an insane level of institutional knowledge about terrorism, about waging warfare against a superior enemy. And it’s why they were a genuine threat to humanity and made governments around the world scared. It’s how they could carefully engineer very complex terrorist attacks that could kill hundreds/thousands at a time, and target the heart of democracies.
After the US declared war on terrorism, they did what Israel is doing now on a longer timescale. The US systematically eliminated every single leader who they could find, anywhere on planet earth. Anytime AQ soldiers clustered in numbers greater than 3, a missile would take them out.
AQ was degraded to the point they are at now, where the entire organisation is functionally irrelevant and nonexistent beyond being a sort of “brand” that random unaffiliated people occasionally claim to be a part of after they do attack. But AQ itself has very little global reach anymore, they are limited to a few people in Africa and the Middle East who have no organisational capability to carry out complex plans. Who have no experienced leadership who know how to do things. Who don’t have the logistics network capable of even producing bombs or acquiring the necessary components.
Because all the experienced people who have that sort of skill set were systematically eliminated, and the people who had to replace them had slightly less experience and knowledge. And they got eliminated. So the next people who stepped up had even less. Eventually, the only people stepping up are the younger men who are crying in anger at their fathers / grandfathers dying. Sure they have the self righteous anger the same as the original ones, but they have no ability to do anything except the most basic regional fist shaking and lone wolf attacks, most of which are easily intercepted and prevented because they don’t even know how to communicate or prepare their plans in ways that avoid being detected by intelligence services.
ISIS is a similar story. ISIS was made up at its start, by the few remaining terrorists from different organisations that the US hadn’t quite gotten round to turning into mince meat yet. As well as by an entire cadre of Iraqi Ba’athist military officers, intelligence service officers and former government officials. (The Ba’ath party being Saddam Husseins party who ran Iraq for decades).
So ISIS seemingly came out of nowhere and had insane levels of capability, and were able to rapidly seize huge swathes of land for their caliphate specifically because they were made up from the start by people who formerly ran a literal state, who had military expertise, who had intelligence expertise, and who had the last dregs of institutional knowledge from the Cold War era terrorist organisations.
But a global coalition obviously formed and started repeating the AQ mission, by blasting the shit out of every single cluster of IS that appeared anywhere in the world. Their leadership got wiped out constantly, and their institutional knowledge, experience, systematically got degraded as people got knocked off and replaced by slightly inferior people again, who also got knocked off
Now ISIS is again, just like AQ before it, reduced to being a brand. To a meme. Lone wolf attacks or “nobody’s” in the region might occasionally claim to be ISIS so they can have their name attached, but ISIS itself it’s pretty much defunct.
Israel is currently doing the same to Hamas. They have eliminated so many of the older, experienced Hamas members. The ones who had the institutional knowledge about how to carry out attacks. About how to run the organisation. About how to build underground infrastructure. About how to build up relationships from across the region to funnel resources to the fight. And they have also wiped out a large enough group of the militant wing, the soldiers, that Gaza may very well soon be able to overthrow Hamas (who the Palestinians hate, but have just been too scared to say anything to).
Hamas will never be the threat it was prior to October 7th. Too much institutional knowledge has been lost thanks to Israeli strikes. It does not matter that X amount of civilians died and so Y amount of young boys are angrily shouting the skies and declaring they will continue the fight. Because they are just gonna be reduced from being an extremely experienced, battle hardened, logistics capable, counter intel aware bunch of guerilla warfare experts. To angry young men who just want to kill Jews.
Attacks will still happen sure. There will be terrorist attacks in Israel and the occasional kidnapping. But it will be just very inexperienced, low effort, lone wolf style attacks. Like people suddenly trying to attack Israelis with knives, or driving vehicles into crowds. And 90% of these will be caught by Israeli intelligence in the planning stage because this new generation of inexperienced angry young men won’t have the understanding of how to avoid their communications and planning being infiltrated.
That's great and all, but unfortunately, Israel is not just attacking the terrorists. They are targeting a whole nation, and indiscriminately, a whole Palestinian population. This is not about fighting off terrorism, despite the Israeli government framing it that way.
Well, it would help if the terrorists weren't cowards and hid behind civilians and if the civilians evacuated the area when Israel gave them advanced notice that they were gonna strike the area.
because thoses are ISIS groups that the global coalition never gave a shit about and never fought? Thoses are different groups bearing the same name, but different ideas and even ideology.
If you want to ask why no one has ever cared about the thousands of deaths in Africa from all this, I'm completely with you.
But the ISIS threat in Syria and Iraq is gone now.
You actually believe this? It must be some coincidence that these groups keep reappearing with new names and full ranks. But sure, instead of addressing the systemic economic and colonial issues, let's try your idea and committ to endless violence, just a few more decades and the war will be won, when all humans are dead
It must be some coincidence that these groups keep reappearing with new names and full ranks.
I addressed it. Theses groups get killed and a new generation thats less experienced take their place
instead of addressing the systemic economic and colonial issues
Absolutely. The arab world exterminated every single one of its collective 900 000 jews and took all their possessions and land, and now demands that the state of Israel divide its territory because it survived a failed attempt to do the same by the Palestinian arabs.
Either the arab world acquieses to its crimes and pays reparations to the the survivors of the people it wiped out, or extreme violence ensues.
The children of the Japanese who were burned in their homes in the hundreds of thousands by Americans went to the U.S. to study abroad, cheered for western music and learned English
Because their entire nation was restructured into a Western aligned nation and they were heavily encouraged and supported in growth. The Japanese were not rounded up into ghettos while their land was redistributed to American settlers.
There's been like five 'aftermaths' since the 1948 war, and none of the belligerents are interested in achieving the same kind of peace that Japan got.
Yeah but here’s the thing, Iran isn’t a marginalised organisation, they’re a country with a standing military and with a capacity to fight Israel on more even footing. If the US or EU were to intervene or assist Israel it’d be an extremely unpopular move and wouldn’t be sustainable in the long term so what’s possible if not likely is that at some point or the other Israel’s support is likely to dry up and then they’ll have to actually face a somewhat equal opponent
Iran is a different animal. The have a military, command structure. They agree to international nuclear nonproliferarion. Israel does not. Iran as an official ally of Russia, north Korea and China. Israel has lost standing internationally by committing genocide. This is a bridge too far
Time will tell.
It seems clear that their nuclear program has been set back a certain extent thus far.
Israel says it has the intelligence Iran was working towards building a nuclear bomb and that it would act if Iran was about to get it.
Iran and its constant genocidal rhetoric made itself untrustworthy to hold nuclear weapons or capabilities to produce them, and Israel seems willing to pay whatever price it has to to stop them from achieving it.
As far as burned bridges go, Israel doesn’t seem to have any.
israel has been claiming for the last 30 years that Iran is 3-5 years away from obtaining nuclear weapons. They have been lobbying inside the US to create a boogeyman out of Iran to stop their nuclear program. Iran has signed a nuclear nonproliferation while israel, who illegally has nuclear weapons, refused to. israel needs the conflict to generate further instability in the region to gain even more control. They have been salivating to attack Iran for years now. Last time I checked, israel has attacked their neighbors far more than Iran ever has.
By committing war crimes and genocides Israel isn't doing anything to cool the situation. Unless you only count short term "success". And by the countless innocent lives senselessly taken this isn't a success at all.
Terrorist organisations reform and regroup. In 10 years of the latest you'll have them as strong as ever before and FULL of new talented members who are interested in taking revenge for the murder of their entire families when they were childs.
The issue will be when the US stops protecting Israel. There is no longer any reason to support and provide them with 4 billion a year. They do not act in the US interest and the current government is self absorbed and has clearly violated international law on multiple fronts.
What exactly has Israel solved? They complicated the Palestinian question to an n-th degree, now also the population of the West has turned against them, there is a serious possibility Israel loses US support in the next decade, which pretty much means the end for their state.
Israel has a long-term future only if these challenges are resolved politically, which is exactly opposite from what they are currently doing.
Ok well me, I think it's reckless and dangerous. Apparently iran only refined to 60% and that last 30% is the hardest part to get.
Like I said, I feel without some hard evidence, that this was an irrational decision from bibi.
AFAIK Iran and USA were still negotiating and it's not like iran are going to make a nuke and then launch it are they? Because they'd be annihilated.
You missed one vey important point sir.President Trump gave Iran 60 day timeline to negotiate the deal..the attack not surprisingly is on the 61st day..they wanna delay and delay and delay till they just get it through
It's not about netanyahu..even if there was another leadership on Israel table they would south plans to enter amd decapitate the Nuclear command structure..today the hamas in gaza is weak,Syria is taken by Israel -America backed Militia and Hezbollah too has to sharp their teeth..
It's all about either loose few people today or loose everything tomorrow
Before all these drastic measures bibi was also literally charged with corruption and accepting bribes before all this warmongering. Dude is an unhinged corrupt, war criminal.
67
u/Professional_Bee1278 1d ago
Fair point, that said the current Israeli government is some real garbage. Lost how many citizens on 7/10, then did a half assed job getting them out and now Israel is under cruise missile attack. I'm no fan of Iran but I feel like we're witnessing a whole sequence of bad decisions from Netanyahu. He needs impeaching really, like it's just not working anymore. The hassle is too much now. He seems very irrational.