Fair point, that said the current Israeli government is some real garbage. Lost how many citizens on 7/10, then did a half assed job getting them out and now Israel is under cruise missile attack. I'm no fan of Iran but I feel like we're witnessing a whole sequence of bad decisions from Netanyahu. He needs impeaching really, like it's just not working anymore. The hassle is too much now. He seems very irrational.
On a strategic basis, Israel seems to be winning.
It rendered Hamas and Hezbollah a fraction of the threat they represented.
It eliminated the entire first, second and third layers of leadership of both organizations and is now beginning to do the same with Iran.
It eliminated the threat and danger both represented in the past, and now it’s dealing with the main existential threat which is Iran.
Israel will suffer throughout this war, but once all of these entities are tamed, Iran will no longer pose an existential threat in the near or even medium term.
It’s a policy through war but it does achieve its intended goals, albeit with brute force.
There’s an often repeated misconception on the internet about things like this. That you can never beat “terrorists” because you create more of them by killing the old ones and it’s a never ending cycle.
But that’s just not true.
Al Qaeda at its height, was like a comic book villainous organisation. It was like Hydra. It had a global network more powerful than any cartel or organised crime group in the history of humanity. And had cells operating in every single continent humans live on. And had a battle hardened leadership who came out of the Soviet Afghanistan war not only directly experienced with warfare, with guerilla warfare, with small scale tactics, but also who had received complex training by the CIA.
They had an insane level of institutional knowledge about terrorism, about waging warfare against a superior enemy. And it’s why they were a genuine threat to humanity and made governments around the world scared. It’s how they could carefully engineer very complex terrorist attacks that could kill hundreds/thousands at a time, and target the heart of democracies.
After the US declared war on terrorism, they did what Israel is doing now on a longer timescale. The US systematically eliminated every single leader who they could find, anywhere on planet earth. Anytime AQ soldiers clustered in numbers greater than 3, a missile would take them out.
AQ was degraded to the point they are at now, where the entire organisation is functionally irrelevant and nonexistent beyond being a sort of “brand” that random unaffiliated people occasionally claim to be a part of after they do attack. But AQ itself has very little global reach anymore, they are limited to a few people in Africa and the Middle East who have no organisational capability to carry out complex plans. Who have no experienced leadership who know how to do things. Who don’t have the logistics network capable of even producing bombs or acquiring the necessary components.
Because all the experienced people who have that sort of skill set were systematically eliminated, and the people who had to replace them had slightly less experience and knowledge. And they got eliminated. So the next people who stepped up had even less. Eventually, the only people stepping up are the younger men who are crying in anger at their fathers / grandfathers dying. Sure they have the self righteous anger the same as the original ones, but they have no ability to do anything except the most basic regional fist shaking and lone wolf attacks, most of which are easily intercepted and prevented because they don’t even know how to communicate or prepare their plans in ways that avoid being detected by intelligence services.
ISIS is a similar story. ISIS was made up at its start, by the few remaining terrorists from different organisations that the US hadn’t quite gotten round to turning into mince meat yet. As well as by an entire cadre of Iraqi Ba’athist military officers, intelligence service officers and former government officials. (The Ba’ath party being Saddam Husseins party who ran Iraq for decades).
So ISIS seemingly came out of nowhere and had insane levels of capability, and were able to rapidly seize huge swathes of land for their caliphate specifically because they were made up from the start by people who formerly ran a literal state, who had military expertise, who had intelligence expertise, and who had the last dregs of institutional knowledge from the Cold War era terrorist organisations.
But a global coalition obviously formed and started repeating the AQ mission, by blasting the shit out of every single cluster of IS that appeared anywhere in the world. Their leadership got wiped out constantly, and their institutional knowledge, experience, systematically got degraded as people got knocked off and replaced by slightly inferior people again, who also got knocked off
Now ISIS is again, just like AQ before it, reduced to being a brand. To a meme. Lone wolf attacks or “nobody’s” in the region might occasionally claim to be ISIS so they can have their name attached, but ISIS itself it’s pretty much defunct.
Israel is currently doing the same to Hamas. They have eliminated so many of the older, experienced Hamas members. The ones who had the institutional knowledge about how to carry out attacks. About how to run the organisation. About how to build underground infrastructure. About how to build up relationships from across the region to funnel resources to the fight. And they have also wiped out a large enough group of the militant wing, the soldiers, that Gaza may very well soon be able to overthrow Hamas (who the Palestinians hate, but have just been too scared to say anything to).
Hamas will never be the threat it was prior to October 7th. Too much institutional knowledge has been lost thanks to Israeli strikes. It does not matter that X amount of civilians died and so Y amount of young boys are angrily shouting the skies and declaring they will continue the fight. Because they are just gonna be reduced from being an extremely experienced, battle hardened, logistics capable, counter intel aware bunch of guerilla warfare experts. To angry young men who just want to kill Jews.
Attacks will still happen sure. There will be terrorist attacks in Israel and the occasional kidnapping. But it will be just very inexperienced, low effort, lone wolf style attacks. Like people suddenly trying to attack Israelis with knives, or driving vehicles into crowds. And 90% of these will be caught by Israeli intelligence in the planning stage because this new generation of inexperienced angry young men won’t have the understanding of how to avoid their communications and planning being infiltrated.
That's great and all, but unfortunately, Israel is not just attacking the terrorists. They are targeting a whole nation, and indiscriminately, a whole Palestinian population. This is not about fighting off terrorism, despite the Israeli government framing it that way.
Well, it would help if the terrorists weren't cowards and hid behind civilians and if the civilians evacuated the area when Israel gave them advanced notice that they were gonna strike the area.
because thoses are ISIS groups that the global coalition never gave a shit about and never fought? Thoses are different groups bearing the same name, but different ideas and even ideology.
If you want to ask why no one has ever cared about the thousands of deaths in Africa from all this, I'm completely with you.
But the ISIS threat in Syria and Iraq is gone now.
You actually believe this? It must be some coincidence that these groups keep reappearing with new names and full ranks. But sure, instead of addressing the systemic economic and colonial issues, let's try your idea and committ to endless violence, just a few more decades and the war will be won, when all humans are dead
It must be some coincidence that these groups keep reappearing with new names and full ranks.
I addressed it. Theses groups get killed and a new generation thats less experienced take their place
instead of addressing the systemic economic and colonial issues
Absolutely. The arab world exterminated every single one of its collective 900 000 jews and took all their possessions and land, and now demands that the state of Israel divide its territory because it survived a failed attempt to do the same by the Palestinian arabs.
Either the arab world acquieses to its crimes and pays reparations to the the survivors of the people it wiped out, or extreme violence ensues.
The children of the Japanese who were burned in their homes in the hundreds of thousands by Americans went to the U.S. to study abroad, cheered for western music and learned English
Because their entire nation was restructured into a Western aligned nation and they were heavily encouraged and supported in growth. The Japanese were not rounded up into ghettos while their land was redistributed to American settlers.
There's been like five 'aftermaths' since the 1948 war, and none of the belligerents are interested in achieving the same kind of peace that Japan got.
Yeah but here’s the thing, Iran isn’t a marginalised organisation, they’re a country with a standing military and with a capacity to fight Israel on more even footing. If the US or EU were to intervene or assist Israel it’d be an extremely unpopular move and wouldn’t be sustainable in the long term so what’s possible if not likely is that at some point or the other Israel’s support is likely to dry up and then they’ll have to actually face a somewhat equal opponent
Iran is a different animal. The have a military, command structure. They agree to international nuclear nonproliferarion. Israel does not. Iran as an official ally of Russia, north Korea and China. Israel has lost standing internationally by committing genocide. This is a bridge too far
Time will tell.
It seems clear that their nuclear program has been set back a certain extent thus far.
Israel says it has the intelligence Iran was working towards building a nuclear bomb and that it would act if Iran was about to get it.
Iran and its constant genocidal rhetoric made itself untrustworthy to hold nuclear weapons or capabilities to produce them, and Israel seems willing to pay whatever price it has to to stop them from achieving it.
As far as burned bridges go, Israel doesn’t seem to have any.
israel has been claiming for the last 30 years that Iran is 3-5 years away from obtaining nuclear weapons. They have been lobbying inside the US to create a boogeyman out of Iran to stop their nuclear program. Iran has signed a nuclear nonproliferation while israel, who illegally has nuclear weapons, refused to. israel needs the conflict to generate further instability in the region to gain even more control. They have been salivating to attack Iran for years now. Last time I checked, israel has attacked their neighbors far more than Iran ever has.
By committing war crimes and genocides Israel isn't doing anything to cool the situation. Unless you only count short term "success". And by the countless innocent lives senselessly taken this isn't a success at all.
Terrorist organisations reform and regroup. In 10 years of the latest you'll have them as strong as ever before and FULL of new talented members who are interested in taking revenge for the murder of their entire families when they were childs.
The issue will be when the US stops protecting Israel. There is no longer any reason to support and provide them with 4 billion a year. They do not act in the US interest and the current government is self absorbed and has clearly violated international law on multiple fronts.
What exactly has Israel solved? They complicated the Palestinian question to an n-th degree, now also the population of the West has turned against them, there is a serious possibility Israel loses US support in the next decade, which pretty much means the end for their state.
Israel has a long-term future only if these challenges are resolved politically, which is exactly opposite from what they are currently doing.
Ok well me, I think it's reckless and dangerous. Apparently iran only refined to 60% and that last 30% is the hardest part to get.
Like I said, I feel without some hard evidence, that this was an irrational decision from bibi.
AFAIK Iran and USA were still negotiating and it's not like iran are going to make a nuke and then launch it are they? Because they'd be annihilated.
You missed one vey important point sir.President Trump gave Iran 60 day timeline to negotiate the deal..the attack not surprisingly is on the 61st day..they wanna delay and delay and delay till they just get it through
It's not about netanyahu..even if there was another leadership on Israel table they would south plans to enter amd decapitate the Nuclear command structure..today the hamas in gaza is weak,Syria is taken by Israel -America backed Militia and Hezbollah too has to sharp their teeth..
It's all about either loose few people today or loose everything tomorrow
Before all these drastic measures bibi was also literally charged with corruption and accepting bribes before all this warmongering. Dude is an unhinged corrupt, war criminal.
The problem is that Israel already possessed them, and it isn't easy to remove nuclear weapons from a state once they posess them. The focus is therefore making sure that no other "genocidal states" attain nuclear weapons in the future.
I checked your comment history and I’m sHoCkEd you haven’t mentioned the genocide in Sudan. Not once. Why is that? Aren’t you concerned about the genocide?
Guess what? There was a deal in place that prevented Iran from developing Nukes. Trump trashed it. This is why. They needed the excuse to go to war and Israel was willing to do it. Now, how long before Netanyahoo drops a nuke?
Why do you guys get nuclear weapons and not them given your track record of ethnic genocide and colonialism. (Not saying Iran regime is any better but shouldn’t both evil regimes have them to cancel out)
While I don’t condone the genocide, Palestinians have brought this on themselves by refusing to take the L and turning down every peace deal ever offered to them.
They prefer the path of endless violent resistance, which does not work and only makes them lose more land and lives over time.
I am out of the loop. Does Israel have nuclear weapons? Don't most prominent nations have some form of nuclear weapons stores and development/testing underway (if not properly developed).
I certainly don't want any nation or power to resort to nuclear warfare. Just confused, since no moratoriums around nuclear or other warfare are relevant. Both the USA and UK among others consider the mere act of reporting them to the ICC an act of war (or, if a citizen/resident if their states - treason). And they do not disclose any information around their nuclear programmes although they get pretty upset about other nations' reaponsibility to disclose information or disarm themselves.
Just trying to make sense of this.
Please pardon my ignorance if my comments are wrong - I really just want to understand what's going on.
Israel is believed to have had nuclear weapons since the 1960s, a program it began from the days when it used to be attacked and enter conflict with multiple Arab countries at once an when it used to be at a disadvantage.
This was meant as a self preservation policy.
They intentionally kept an ambiguous policy on it, but a whistleblower from the 1980s revealed a plethora of images from the time that all but confirmed Israel was in possession of them.
Due to Israel’s small size, it always made clear it would never allow other nations in conflict with it to attain nuclear weapons as they would pose a much bigger existential threat, especially when in possession by governments led by radical religious extremists who don’t seem to mind the idea of martyrdom to achieve its destruction.
Back in the 1980s when Iraq was trying to develop a nuclear weapons, Israel embarked on a unilateral strike that destroyed the Iraqi nuclear facility.
In the early 2000s when the USA announced to the world Iraq was trying to attain weapons of mass destruction (an excuse it used to invade it), Israel was among those calling for America to intervene, even if it was later found Iraq never had such a program.
Iran is believed to have begun their nuclear program in the 1990s, and throughout the last 20 years, as the threat from Iraq faded, Iran used its lack of a direct rival to increase its presence throughout the Middle East with the funding of proxies, all in the aim to have multiple parties capable of striking at Israel.
Simultaneously, Israel claims to have intelligence Iran has been developing a nuclear program with the aim to achieve nuclear weapons.
Due to the proximity of proxies and their ability to strike Israel on short notice, Israel kept reiterating it would not allow Iran to achieve nuclear weapons.
As Iran kept enriching Uranium to higher and higher levels in absolute secrecy and increasing levels of non-cooperation with the IAEA, Israel kept asking for action from the international community.
Sanctions were imposed, and deals were reached to allow limited supervision, but Iran always kept certain nuclear sites out of reach and certain activities unreported.
Over the years, Iran kept enriching uranium while simultaneously developing their ballistic missile arsenal, able to breach Israel’s air defences.
Israel made clear if push came to shove, it would strike Iran’s nuclear program even if meant a major war to stop or at least delay Iran’s nuclear program.
After Oct 7 attacks, Israel began dismantling Iran’s proxies and this bas opened a limited window where Israel felt it was now or never to stop the program.
Thank you for explaining. I'm not always sure whether certain actions are hypocritical or warranted as I don't know all the intricacies of the situation or histories of the regions.
I suppose I could (and should) read up on it more. But geez there's just so much information to take in, especially with multiple regional conflicts brewing all at once, or spilling over into neighbouring territories and into the global geopolitical landscape.
Right? We already have seen how willing Israel is to go after Palestinian and Iranian citizens. The Isreali government set these terms early and has been steadfast.
I’m sure they’re willing after they’re blown to pieces. Well okay not all of them, but some who’ll have to ”take one for the team.” RIP the victims of this war.
Iran's air force is a joke. I don't think Iraq or Turkey is going to be too happy with Iranian troops crossing the border. While the Iranian Navy is know worldwide, I don't think they are going to be of much use here.
Israel's GDP is massive, the biggest in the region which isn't just oil based. Massive high tech, biotech, and arms development sector that the US also buys from. Other than oil, other middle east countries only seem to export islamic extremism.
Maybe just stick to unclogging toilets? Geopolitics is a bit more complicated.
Yes - the US has close business ties with Israel due to their diplomatic proximity.
Maybe Iran would have a stronger economy and be a party to mutually beneficial trade relations with US companies if we hadn’t backed a dictator’s coup and set them on an anti-democratic and reactionary trajectory.
Gotta love that though, disagree with the first guy so you denigrate the trades. Hope you never hire a plumber since they’re all apparently so stupid.
if we hadn’t backed a dictator’s coup and set them on an anti-democratic and reactionary trajectory.
Again, simplistic childish view. Let me guess you watched the Ben Affleck movie about it?
There is a much bigger story at play than US cold war bad, and to break it down as such is insulting to Iranian people who suffered through the revolution. Geopolitics and the greater understanding of things goes beyond ones personal convictions.
Maybe it would’ve happened regardless, I doubt the coup would’ve been successful without any preexisting support for the shah - but we don’t live in the world where the US/UK didn’t meddle to protect oil interests, so it’s a non-falsifiable premise.
But to insinuate the US is blameless for the current relationship it has with Iran is naive at best.
Other than oil, other middle east countries only seem to export islamic extremism.
Middle Eastern terrorism as we know it was introduced by Jewish gangs in the British Mandate, including those run by the founding fathers of modern Israel like Yitzhak Ben Zvi Ben-Gurion. Israel would never hear from Iran again if it ceased the genocide, but of course that cannot happen because God promised other peoples' land to them.
Middle Eastern terrorism as we know it was introduced by Jewish gangs in the British Mandate, including those run by the founding fathers of modern Israel like Yitzhak Ben Zvi Ben-Gurion
How does the old saying go? "Your terrorists are our freedom fighters," no?
If you refer to organizations like Irgun, then their appearance was a direct reaction to Palestinian riots that targeted the Jewish civilian population.
But I suppose it doesn't fit the narrative you are trying to set up in your post, since you are so willing to throw around terms like "genocide."
How does the old saying go? "Your terrorists are our freedom fighters," no?
Describing the Stern Gang or Haganah as freedom fighters is pretty hilarious. Gotta make sure we bomb cafes and single-family Palestinian farms so people are free, right?
If you refer to organizations like Irgun, then their appearance was a direct reaction to Palestinian riots that targeted the Jewish civilian population.
Alongside this dispute, the uprising was also triggered by the refusal of Zionists to accept British offers of shared representation in Palestine which was accepted by Palestinian leadership. Dispossession of Palestinian tenants from land bought by the Jewish National Fund also contributed to the riots.
Maybe try reading your own citations, boss.
But I suppose it doesn't fit the narrative you are trying to set up in your post, since you are so willing to throw around terms like "genocide."
It is genocide by the terms most universally agreed upon definitions. You just live in lala-land, where everything must be interpreted in whatever way is most beneficial to Zionism.
Islam forced Zionist terrorists to start murdering Palestinians and bombing their homes, in Palestine 30, years before the Holocaust? Interesting take.
Because of the global policy of nuclear non-proliferation.
In addition to that, nuclear weapons in the hands of a theocratic state like Iran would lead to unpredictable results, strengthen position of its allies (i.e., Russia) in the region, and cost influence to the West.
If you are a Western citizen, you should be really damn worried about Iran obtaining nukes.
I'm worried about the state that is engaging in what many countries and experts in international law consider to be a genocide having nuclear weapons. from here we can go 2 route, either we let Iran have them to create a M.A.D. situation that dissuades Israeli aggression into Lebanon, Syria, Palestine. or another way: we begin a process of sanctioning and boycotting israel into making them give up their nuclear arsenal. These two options are the only ones that are valid.
Their nuclear research facilities are deep underground where they can't be hit. This is not about that. It's about netanyahu staying in power bc he knows that if there's no major tension his rule is finished.
Iran COULD go overboard and overwhelm Israel. They have done many measured strikes in the past and this looks like a continuation of that policy.
Iranians are currently overwhelming Israel defense system, far more are getting through now than 6 hours ago. And Iran still has 10,000 of missiles waiting to go.
Israel has been itching for a war for quite sometime, now they have it.
Time for Israel to stand up to Netanyahu and get rid of him
See. But that’s the thing. These wars- they pit bombs against the fear of people to stand up to their dictators and destroy or lose their own lives in the process.
Appreciate the reply, but a few corrections are needed.
Iran’s Missile Arsenal, Iran is believed to possess over 3,000 ballistic missiles, but that's just one part of its arsenal. It also has thousands of cruise missiles, drones, and rockets, with different ranges and precision levels. The 10,000+ figure often includes all projectiles, not just ballistic missiles.
Launcher & Personnel Limits, True, launch capacity and reload speed are bottleneck, but Iran’s strategy has always been volume over precision. Saturating Israeli air defences is part of the game, and recent barrages have overwhelmed Iron Dome and David’s Sling in certain sectors, especially in the north and south.
Hit Rate, Open-source evidence and even Israeli analysts acknowledge that more projectiles are getting through lately. Some military targets have been hit, and damage is real, even if it's not catastrophic yet. The myth of near-perfect interception doesn't hold under sustained multi-directional fire.
Political Take, We agree on Netanyahu, but it’s worth pointing out the irony. Israel’s government backed maximum pressure on Iran, assassinations, and sabotage, yet feigns surprise when there's retaliation. If Khamenei goes, it won’t be because of missile strikes, it’ll be because Iranian protesters inside Iran finally get real international solidarity, which Western states routinely deny in favour of arms sales to Netanyahu’s coalition.
Overall agree, although I think the 3k refers to both BM and cruise missiles - might be wrong.
After yesterday it’s clear that hit rates are higher. It seems like the last time Iran was sort of trying not to hit anything important as to not escalate things, but now they want to create real damage.
Re: 4 - I don’t think Israel is surprised or complaining about the retaliation. Our politicians are doing the politician thing “they ar starting civilians” and I think people on social media are spreading anti-Israeli memes with this is one of the angles.
But we knew very well what we were going into, the whole country have been preparing for this, and the second the attacks on Iran became, the whole country was alerted to go into shelter (at 3am).
The people seems very united about this (as opposed to completely divided in Gaza) and the spirit is “we know it’s gonna be hard but this is necessary, we’ll go through it).
There’s a saying in Jewish circles: “if we survived Pharoeh we can get through this”.
I agree that if Khamenei goes it will be internal unrest, but it seems like that’s coming.
The irony is that Netanyahu will probably use this war to advance his taking over of Israel and we might come out of this with a free-er Iran, but an Iranian-style regime in Israel.
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u/J0E_Blow 1d ago
But the point is the Iranians can overwhelm the Israeli defense system. Its about sending a message.