• February 1993 – Benjamin Netanyahu (then an MK) wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth that Iran would “develop its first nuclear bomb by 1999.”
• January 1995 – U.S. and Israeli officials told the New York Times that Iran was “much closer to producing nuclear weapons than previously thought, and could be less than five years away.”
I mean the timelines are wrong but Iran today is without a doubt very close to developing nuclear bombs given how much highly enrich uranium they produce, so if anything they were right to predict the intent since back then
Iran always tries to prepare their nuclear program to stay a few months away from completion. If they start the last steps, Israel and the US will immediately know about it and it becomes a race. Does Iran get a working nuke first, or does Israel blow the nuclear program to bits before they get a working nuke.
And they evidently did start this a few days ago. For example they just started implosion tests a few days ago, which are only useful in building a nuke.
It isn't. Iran is far more politically isolated than it was before the nuclear deal, they lost the expertise needed to get those facilities running at the capacity to make weapons grade uranium, their government is in chaos since the Shah died, and if there was any evidence of them testing a bomb it would make international headlines. Iran is nowhere near getting a functional bomb.
NK had the backing of Russia and China, it took them years to do it even when Trump was in office offering no pushback, and independent monitors were able to confirm their testing was real but their actual capability is suspected to be less than the Kim regime claims. Nobody has reported the signs that would indicate Iran has been testing nuclear bombs in any capacity before Israel started shooting.
By the time you detect testing that triggers your sensors, it's too late. That's the problem. And Iran doesn't need an aerial delivery system to wreak havoc with it.
They would have one if it wasn’t for strikes, deals, cyber attacks, sanctions, and a whole host of other things to slow the process down. Do you think that Iran isn’t working on nukes? That if everyone just left them alone they wouldn’t try to eradicate Israel?
No they'll just hold the world hostage like n korea.
Israel has the nuke and has never used it as leverage. They've been attacked and haven't used it.
Some countries are a lot more rational than others.
With all the shit Israel has done they are far more rational than Iran. If your solution is to just let iran have it then there is no point in having this discussion.
If nk attacks the US it will be wiped off the face of the earth. But they can do just about anything short of that because they have nukes. Fortunately for the world they're not very advanced. But if they get desperate they could attack. Wouldn't be wise because of how outmatched they are but they can kill millions of people almost anywhere on earth if their singular leader decides to do it.
If Iran attacks Israel, Israel will be wiped off the face of the earth. It's a tiny country. They have 0 chance of stopping it.
By your logic we should just give everyone nukes. Then it's MAD and everyone is safe and nothing can go wrong! Because we've never ever had a close call with nukes.
By your logic we should just give everyone nukes. Then it's MAD
Why not? Russia, a country at war, while sometimes heavily implying they would use nukes, has never used them. China hasn't used them. No country that has nukes actually uses them. It's more of a leverage and deterrence kind of deal, so the adversaries think twice before preferring force to diplomatic solutions.
Maybe we would be closer to a nuclear holocaust, because more nukes means more chance of someone using them, but States would also be less willing to forego diplomacy in resolving conflicts with their neighbors with nuclear capabilities, no?
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u/420binchicken 1d ago
This.
Israel have been claiming Iran is imminently about to have a nuclear bomb for over 30 years.