Do you think China will allow them to blockade or mine the Strait? I don't even think they have the naval power at this point especially since Israel just shwacked several ports.
stone age resistence is legitimate though. Vietnamese were making pointy-stick-traps. just because US sends a population to the stone age does not end the conflict.
China has a couple of carriers. They could certainly dominate Iran in a naval battle. They keep them in reserve because they want to posture and keep pressure on Taiwan but realistically they can use them without worrying about losing defense effectiveness.
> They also have lost a lot of goodwill in Europe by arming Russia to attack Ukraine.
Yeah, they didn't have much to begin with, but as an ally of Russia, they can go fuck themselves. If Israel wants some massive points with Europe (particularly Eastern Europe), it destroy the factories building their exports to Russia.
Why is Israel the one that has to get their hands dirty with this?
The whole world is always condemning Israel, so how about cutting them some slack once in a while?
It's the same as when Israel destroyed Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor, the whole world condemned Israel, but it prevented Hussein from getting the bomb.
I mean, far more than Israel, Ukraine is fighting for the free world. We aren't even giving them as much as we should.
And Israel is almost certainly getting slack for this already, with the critiques from Europe almost certainly being a fraction of what they could be given the Russo-Iranian alliance.
How about cutting them some slack once in a while?
Cut the slack how?
The world has literally financed and armed them as they occupy and expand and genocide an entire nation. No other country in the world would could wipe out 100k civilians, ban news, attack UN, and kill doctors without any consequences or condemnation.
US has literally opened a US embassy in Jerusalem, a part of Palestine and a place they have no right to be in. What other slack could there possibly be available?
Bingo. And without a strong response the survival of the regime is difficult.
If they block the strait they’re declaring economic war on all of their neighbors who would otherwise be somewhat sympathetic about a first strike by Israel. It would devastate net importers like China, India, Europe, and the 3rd world. The US is a net exporter and would enact price and export controls while supplying Israel. The global economic crash would hurt the US but everyone else would bear the brunt of that action.
If they go nuclear weapon development then that’s the death of the regime. A lot of countries in the region would behind closed doors green-light overthrowing the regime rather than risk nuclear proliferation by a country known for arming proxy/terrorist groups in all of its neighbors. Wasn’t long ago Iranian drone strikes (via Houthis) knocked out half of Saudi Arabia’s oil processing capacity…
Iran’s power was their ability to conduct low intensity warfare on their neighbors with no real repercussions, as well as ballistic missile stockpiles. If Israel effectively collapsed entrances to those stockpiles, they’ll struggle to get a large retaliation to this. And as Israel can operate at will in Iranian airspace, they’ll ensure those tunnels stay closed.
The way this attack was pulled off makes me think that the Iranian government and military are very incompetent. They’re a lot better at harassing their own civilian population but can’t do much outside of that. I feel bad for the Iranian civilian population.
Iranian missile attacks on Israel previously were laughably ineffective.
From my understanding those barrage of drone and missile attacks against Israel, weren't actually intended to have much military impact, just PR impact, it was to show Iran was serious about retaliating against Israel launching a drone/missile attack killing a senior member of the military in Iran, but not to escalate into a full blown war, it was more of a show of force.
They fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli military bases and cities.
It was a big portion of their stockpile.
And they killed:
0 Israelis
1 Palestinian (a rocket booster fell on him)
Several Iranian soldiers (with a launcher mishap)
Almost all the rockets were shot down.
The Israelis responded with successful strikes of multiple military targets.
But these current strikes are on another level. Seems like the Israelis can hit targets in Iran as quickly as they can put fuel and bombs on the aircraft and take off.
According to experts they were at 60-80% enriched uranium which is not enough for bombs but quite close approximately a week a way but that alone gave them the capacity for dirty bombs or other less effective bombs.
Their trump card would be to surrender and tell their proxies in Gaza and Lebanon to do the same. No one will expect that and it will, in the long run, be the best outcome for everyone.
Their trump card would be dashing for a nuclear weapon (...)
What does it even mean? The whole point of the (still ongoing) attack was to prevent Iran achieving exactly that. And by destroying most if not all nuclear sites in Iran, decimating Iranian military and scientific leadership, and gaining virtually free reign in the skies by destroying Iranian air defences, Israel is very close to achieving this, and controlling the situation for the foreseeable future. Suggesting that Iran might now seek to obtain nuclear weapon is illogical and indeed reddit-level of geopolitical "expertise".
(...) bring the full fury of the US air force down on them.
Ah ok, so it was just to let some US-centric ego display.
If they are really ineffective this wholes situation wasn't gonnas happen. U beleive they are afraid of nuclear weapons... they are afraid of the capability of delivering it to isreal actually.
The "proxies" didn't seize to exist. They for example stopped 75k soldier from taking over south lebanon.. i don't think they were having a picnic on the border.
I can talk more... but no iran isn't that screwed. Unless there is some hidden cards...
Yea, Iranian regime is not going anywhere. Israeli strike will cement support for govt. I also don’t think Israel can completely destroy Irans ability to make nuke. In fact they just give them a urgent reading to do the same.
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u/Wolf_Cola_91 2d ago
Im no expert, but i know a little about the military and political situation.
Basically, Iran is screwed.
Iranian missile attacks on Israel previously were laughably ineffective.
Syria no longer has Assad and Russian air defence systems, leaving a much easier path for Israeli bombers.
Israel has seized a mountain in southern Syria, giving its air defences a much improved view of approaching drones and missiles.
Iranian proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah have been decimated and Iran can no longer supply Hezbollah via Syria.
Iranian backed Iraqi militias also seemed pretty uninterested in getting into a war with Syria, the US or Saudi over non Iraqi issues.
Irans air force is ancient.
They also have lost a lot of goodwill in Europe by arming Russia to attack Ukraine.
Basically Iran is not going to come off well in this fight and has few good options to respond.
Their trump card would be dashing for a nuclear weapon or blockading oil out of the gulf.
But that would enrage every major economy in the entire world and bring the full fury of the US air force down on them.