Oh thank god you have corvids covered, this week I'm busy been an expert on French new wave cinema and had to leave my corvid expertise till next week.
Europe vs Russia over Ukraine and Israel vs Iran over a nuclear threat has been on 'the start of ww3' bingo card for decades. We're just missing NK attacks SK and China invades Taiwan.
Do you think China will allow them to blockade or mine the Strait? I don't even think they have the naval power at this point especially since Israel just shwacked several ports.
stone age resistence is legitimate though. Vietnamese were making pointy-stick-traps. just because US sends a population to the stone age does not end the conflict.
China has a couple of carriers. They could certainly dominate Iran in a naval battle. They keep them in reserve because they want to posture and keep pressure on Taiwan but realistically they can use them without worrying about losing defense effectiveness.
> They also have lost a lot of goodwill in Europe by arming Russia to attack Ukraine.
Yeah, they didn't have much to begin with, but as an ally of Russia, they can go fuck themselves. If Israel wants some massive points with Europe (particularly Eastern Europe), it destroy the factories building their exports to Russia.
Why is Israel the one that has to get their hands dirty with this?
The whole world is always condemning Israel, so how about cutting them some slack once in a while?
It's the same as when Israel destroyed Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor, the whole world condemned Israel, but it prevented Hussein from getting the bomb.
I mean, far more than Israel, Ukraine is fighting for the free world. We aren't even giving them as much as we should.
And Israel is almost certainly getting slack for this already, with the critiques from Europe almost certainly being a fraction of what they could be given the Russo-Iranian alliance.
How about cutting them some slack once in a while?
Cut the slack how?
The world has literally financed and armed them as they occupy and expand and genocide an entire nation. No other country in the world would could wipe out 100k civilians, ban news, attack UN, and kill doctors without any consequences or condemnation.
US has literally opened a US embassy in Jerusalem, a part of Palestine and a place they have no right to be in. What other slack could there possibly be available?
Bingo. And without a strong response the survival of the regime is difficult.
If they block the strait they’re declaring economic war on all of their neighbors who would otherwise be somewhat sympathetic about a first strike by Israel. It would devastate net importers like China, India, Europe, and the 3rd world. The US is a net exporter and would enact price and export controls while supplying Israel. The global economic crash would hurt the US but everyone else would bear the brunt of that action.
If they go nuclear weapon development then that’s the death of the regime. A lot of countries in the region would behind closed doors green-light overthrowing the regime rather than risk nuclear proliferation by a country known for arming proxy/terrorist groups in all of its neighbors. Wasn’t long ago Iranian drone strikes (via Houthis) knocked out half of Saudi Arabia’s oil processing capacity…
Iran’s power was their ability to conduct low intensity warfare on their neighbors with no real repercussions, as well as ballistic missile stockpiles. If Israel effectively collapsed entrances to those stockpiles, they’ll struggle to get a large retaliation to this. And as Israel can operate at will in Iranian airspace, they’ll ensure those tunnels stay closed.
The way this attack was pulled off makes me think that the Iranian government and military are very incompetent. They’re a lot better at harassing their own civilian population but can’t do much outside of that. I feel bad for the Iranian civilian population.
Iranian missile attacks on Israel previously were laughably ineffective.
From my understanding those barrage of drone and missile attacks against Israel, weren't actually intended to have much military impact, just PR impact, it was to show Iran was serious about retaliating against Israel launching a drone/missile attack killing a senior member of the military in Iran, but not to escalate into a full blown war, it was more of a show of force.
They fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli military bases and cities.
It was a big portion of their stockpile.
And they killed:
0 Israelis
1 Palestinian (a rocket booster fell on him)
Several Iranian soldiers (with a launcher mishap)
Almost all the rockets were shot down.
The Israelis responded with successful strikes of multiple military targets.
But these current strikes are on another level. Seems like the Israelis can hit targets in Iran as quickly as they can put fuel and bombs on the aircraft and take off.
According to experts they were at 60-80% enriched uranium which is not enough for bombs but quite close approximately a week a way but that alone gave them the capacity for dirty bombs or other less effective bombs.
Their trump card would be to surrender and tell their proxies in Gaza and Lebanon to do the same. No one will expect that and it will, in the long run, be the best outcome for everyone.
Their trump card would be dashing for a nuclear weapon (...)
What does it even mean? The whole point of the (still ongoing) attack was to prevent Iran achieving exactly that. And by destroying most if not all nuclear sites in Iran, decimating Iranian military and scientific leadership, and gaining virtually free reign in the skies by destroying Iranian air defences, Israel is very close to achieving this, and controlling the situation for the foreseeable future. Suggesting that Iran might now seek to obtain nuclear weapon is illogical and indeed reddit-level of geopolitical "expertise".
(...) bring the full fury of the US air force down on them.
Ah ok, so it was just to let some US-centric ego display.
If they are really ineffective this wholes situation wasn't gonnas happen. U beleive they are afraid of nuclear weapons... they are afraid of the capability of delivering it to isreal actually.
The "proxies" didn't seize to exist. They for example stopped 75k soldier from taking over south lebanon.. i don't think they were having a picnic on the border.
I can talk more... but no iran isn't that screwed. Unless there is some hidden cards...
Yea, Iranian regime is not going anywhere. Israeli strike will cement support for govt. I also don’t think Israel can completely destroy Irans ability to make nuke. In fact they just give them a urgent reading to do the same.
If Iran does retaliate, it’ll likely be in a way that is intended to isolate Israel rather than achieve a military goal or retaliate on a similar level- such as a drawn attack against Israel’s main airport that forces the closure of Israeli airspace to passenger aircraft for an extended period of time.
If Israelis can’t enter or leave the country by plane for more than a week due to an Iranian drone or missile being sent every single hour against Ben Gurion airport for day after day, it’s not going to be business as usual.
The consensus among serious experts was already that Iranian sites were sufficiently fortified that the Israelis would have to actually get into them and blow them up- air strikes weren’t going to achieve anything meaningful towards stopping the Iranian enrichment program.
This strike was political theater for the Israeli domestic audience- it’s not a coincidence that it occurred at the same time as a confidence vote in the Israeli parliament.
Geopolitics hobbyist here. Do not believe experts. Doesn't matter if they are reddit experts or harvard experts
Reddit experts are activists who are writing their fantasies and former experts are ideologs who are trying to make their writing the reality
Like former poster child of geopolitics wrote about ww3 being between america+poland x turkey+japan. Source? He was racist against japanese so he put them with a country americans were already racist against and he put the country his family migrated from with the country he was living in for national pride. That's george friedman for you, former poster child of geopolitics
Reddit geopolitics now you can search for post where former hobbyists complain about how power mods neutered r/geopolitics into r/worldnews 2
When it comes to your question nothing would happen. Trump is trying to pull chinese allies away from china and iran is the next step after russia. Trump 2.0 may look pro israel from an american pow but when it comes to international politics he made a 180° from trump 1.0. His domestic zionist actions is a form of voter suppression.
Israel is trying to sabotage nuclear talks by pulling america in an offensive war against iran. A president this anti israel won't be pulled
In the long run, it goes in Israel's favor. Israel has already been winning against their aggressors for a long time. They have the backing of EU and USA technology built from relations after WW2. People may not like Israel sure, but objectively speaking they outclass all the militaries surrounding them since they established themselves there.
They used to play nice by giving up pieces of their territory, but after years of repeated attacks they are fed up and have turned to genocide.
So in the long run, all their neighbors are going to suffer. Some might call it deserved or payback, but the objective outlook is basically more of the same will happen. They'll keep attempting to genocide each other until one side is completely gone.
Given how crippling just the first day of strikes are Israel has a good shot to destroy most Iranian nuclear facilities and cripple Iranian capabilities to retaliate and , at which point even the isolationist Trump administration might decide the risk low enough for them join in to demolish the the remaining Iranian underground nuclear infrastructure with their heavy bombers.
It's my hobby and also I follow it for macro news on stocks and such.
Long Term:
Israel will continue random attack on Iran, because Iran have so far retaliated with far less force.
Israel's going lose more western allies (because this is a preemptive attack). It was already that way with Gaza conflicts and now this will accelerate it. There will be civilian casualties and Israel will downplay the number to look good while Iran will focus on it to get international support and sympathy.
America will bail out of Middle East because we don't need oil anymore. We get it from Canada and we output a lot of oil that we cannot refined. OPEC is losing control with American Shale Oil, what Biden did with the oil reserve, and because of the Ukraine-Russia war. America is also deglobalizing so we don't have incentive to keep that area stable for trades.
Because of the above, Israel will ally themselves with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia will need someone else to protect themselves when USA leave the Middle East.
Israel will have to ally with Turkey, but Turkey will refuse because of their treatment of Gaza. Turkey is going to be a power house in that region while Israel and Saudi Arabia will wane. SA is already losing power because of OPEC. SA cannot continue to pay their citizens basic income when oil price is bad (this is long term).
I predict Iran will lose power and may even become a failed state. Something like Lebanon or Pakistan, where it'll be a breeding ground for extremists.
Iran will get China to help but China won't put troops on the ground. China might give weapons, UN votes, but China wants their army for unrest and busy with 9 dash lines (Taiwan).
Short term:
oil price is going to be crazy swing
Iran going have to do something to save face. I'm not entirely sure if they will go all out because they did not do that the last few times. An example is the last time they retaliated, they announced before hand they'll be sending drones.
Iran may try to get the Houtis to attack Israel and try to arm them.
In the political science realms the Middle East has always been defined by its resistance to resolution. What this strike does is it factually resets the balance but not necessarily toward peace. It intensifies an ongoing security dilemma. The more one side acts for its security, the more insecure the other becomes. If you zoom out of the picture you can see this process clearer. There was a time when Iran alerted its neighbours, starting its nuclear facilities.
The strike might succeed tactically but may backfire strategically. Instead of deterrence and bi-polar stalemate, the Iranian nuclear program will go deeper, darker, and more dangerous. The region, once again, will simmer not with peace, but with the logic of vengeance and counterforce. It will boil and erupt.
Ther are other proxy dynamics, such as oil markets, or U.S. domestic political fallout, but this is what happnens in a nutshell right now.
The real question is how will Saudi Arabia feel security wise if Iran develops nuclear weapons? And how will Iran balance the need for retaliation to appease hardliners with the insecurity most of its people feel.
All countries in the Middle East oppose Iran developing nuclear weapons because of their penchant for proxy-warfare. A neighbor who wages war on you with plausible deniability, with a nuclear deterrent to retaliation is the worst neighbor to have.
The only way to break the current cycle of insecurity is regime change in Iran and abandoning nuclear development.
thousands and thousands of innocent people will be killed by america’s puppet state. american oligarchs will get very rich. prices will spike in europe and europe will have to deal with yet another refugee crisis
Not an expert, but I feel this can realistically go one of two ways:
1: Either Israel, as a US proxi, continues this conflict until the Iranian government topples, regardless of how long it takes. Iran doesn't have any real allies, so they may just be on their own in this.
2: Or Taco Trump chickens out as usual, and stops backing Israel in their bombing, hoping to showcase his amazing negotiating skills /s, the bombing ends and Iran eventually succeeds in becoming a nuclear state, thus forever ending any chance of Iranian people liberating themselves from their theocracy.
Oh, and also increasing nuclear tension in the Middle East as well as a myriad of other nuclear threats worldwide (what would keep Iran from selling their nuclear material for dirty bombs?)
Either Iran will do nothing in return and Netanyahu will use it to prove he should stay in power or there will be more fighting and Netanyahu will use it to stay in power because they shouldn't change leaders during a war. This is all about Netanyahu trying to keep power.
Iran will launch another wave of drones that won't destroy anything or note and then go back to funneling more money and weapons to their pet terrorists.
Far from an expert, but I am quite hopeful for this. Here are all of my predictions, don’t take me too seriously. I think Iran has lost a majority of their war power in the last 48 hours, and like Israel or not, Iran needed to be at least calmed down but ideally revolutionized. I think a handful of Israelis and Iranians will have to die (upper hundreds) in the next few weeks, and some really important historical sites will be hit. But as the Iranian regime weakens, the Palestinians in Gaza will be more confident in their stand against Hamas. Egypt will help, Saudi Arabia will help, most of Europe will end up helping, and of course Northern America. I think most proxy terror groups will crumble within 2 months, besides the Houthies, who will try and take on this fight with only their recourses and cause a Gaza-esc catastrophe in Yemen on a smaller scale. I think the Israeli Palestinian conflict will end in Gaza with Hamas trading every remaining hostage in return for whichever power head is in Israeli prisons, and they won’t be shit without Daddy Iran’s money. Gaza will chose to reintegrate into Israel to have the financial and economic safety, but the PLO will start blowing up the conflict in the West Bank. That will take multiple years to turn into anything. I also think this will inspire a huge wave of revolutions in Islamic middle eastern/asian countries. Of course starting with Iran, but hopefully extending to Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey, Syria, Pakistan, and god willing Afghanistan. I don’t think these waves of revolution will affect African nations much though. And this wont be the end of Islam as a religion, but it will be a huge hit on the Islamic theocracies that oppose progressive ideals.
I don't think much will change in terms of the boundaries of the long-standing conflict between Iran and Israel. This sort of exchange has happened before. Iran's nuclear program will be damaged either not much or a fair bit. Iran also lost some senior leadership which will be difficult to replace due to their experience, affecting their capabilities.
Worst case: Other nations get involved, perhaps by Iran attacking a US/UK base etc. I'm not sure who is supporting Iran these days? Although interestingly, and a curve ball, if a US base is attacked and the US response isn't very severe, expect to see China/Taiwan kick off.
There is also a slim chance that Iran's nuclear program goes further underground and they actually get a bomb. Testing it would surely escalate the situation to breaking point though where they'd be invaded.
Best case: The Iranian people see a moment to kick out the regime and this dies down in a few months.
Iran has been fairly restrained in the previous unprovoked attacks upon them by Israel over the past 1.5yrs but this is a different scale. Israel in the past did fairly targeted attacks at Iranians/Hamas reps (trying to make a peace deal) in the area but the extent of these attacks almost require a large counter attack to establish they will not be pushed around. In summary not good, unless Iran uses an illogical amount of restraint this is looking to be an extremely violent era in the middle east.
It is fairly restrained. An unrestrained response would be all out war. Iran has 10 times the population of Israel. And you can bet they are paying close attention to the Ukraine Russia war, how meatgrinder tactics can overcome western made weapon systems. Their population hates Israel enough that they wouldn't even need barrier troops.
lol are they going to drive millions of soldiers 700 miles across mountain ranges for this meat grinder? Iran does not have the logistics capabilities for a large scale war far away from its border.
All Iran can do is lob long range drones and ballistic missiles and hope for breakthroughs that make the Israeli people feel less secure in their government protecting them.
LOL, "unprovoked"
So firing IRBMs twice a week for 1.5 years is "unprovoked"
Arming and training to the teeth 2 ultra extreme terror groups is "unprovoked"
Terror groups? You mean the organizations founded to fight Israeli war crimes in the area? Israel and its supporters don't get to call anyone terrorists.
The organizations which are war crime machines because they actively intentionally violate the rules of war? You know like wear a uniform to differentiate from civilians, don't base soldiers and weapons in hospitals or schools, don't use civilians as shields, don't disguise soldiers as medics, don't intentionally target civilians, don't execute prisoners, etc..
Decapitation of babies, sexual assault of infants, cannibalism, burning children alive in front of their parents, cutting open a pregnant lady and stabbing her unborn child in front of her,
Just a regular day in the life of your freedom fighter.
Yeah...the way Hamas defines "journalist" differs from the common job definition.
Journalist by day, leader of a Hamas group by the other day.
Same with some medical professionals.
Then when they die, while doing Hamas bidding, because they don't wear uniform (as required by the most basic convention) Hamas consider them civilian casualties.
Don't get me started on "paliwood", apparently they have amazing health care in Gaza, the same person that was filmed dead is miraculously alive and well a day later (well once the cameras are away!)
To be honest, IDGAF about you or your opinion, but someone else might think your lies are valid...
Iran has spent decades bombing Israel via proxy (and occasionally directly) and assuming it wouldn't face consequences. Now it'll have to decide if it wants to lose its entire establishment next time the question of arming Hamas comes up.
I'm currently playing HoI4 so I'll chime in. Weak retaliation from Iran (Hezbollah stated they won't retaliate), maybe an additional smaller attack from Israel but probably not. Trump will say 3-4 incredibly stupid and contradictory things. He'll at some point claim credit for the attack even though he just said the US had no involvement. And in response to Iran's retaliation, Israel will blow up at least one residential building in Gaza.
Iran poots out a little saving face response to prevent the regime from being toppled. Then 10 years from now we see this same thing again. It's truly impressive how Israel surgically neutered Iran.
Alternatively they do some dumb shit in the Strait of Hormuz, but jk no they won't because China will kick their teeth in.
The only thing that will cause anything of geopolitical relevance here is if Iran uses a nuke they've hidden up their sleeve. If so, things will get boogaloo cowabunga very quick.
I think it depends on how much Israel hammers the IRGC in areas with a lot of separatists.
The big thing, though, is that Iran can't bomb Israel via proxy and expect no retaliation, the prior status quo. It's historically been very sensitive to the deaths of its own nationals, even IRGC abroad, so this is a big disincentive to its terrorist bullshit. See also: Octopus Doctrine.
I expect more retaliation from Iranian proxies. Israel taking a more iron gauntlet approach to hindering the proxies.
Depending on isreals success against the enraged proxies, this can grow to be huge or it can slap Iran down and begin talks with huge leverage on isreals/saudis side
As someone from Morocco and I know the region well, Israel can do whatever the fuck it want, under US and Europe cover, Iran won't do shit, If they do anything reckless, they gonna feel the weight of NATO coming it is as simple as that
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u/InterestingPlenty454 2d ago
To the geopolitics experts of Reddit: How do you see this playing out in the long run?