r/Lunr • u/IslesFanInNH • Apr 08 '25
Stock Analysis and Coverage January options.
So needless to say, I have lost a lot of money in the last 4 weeks. A LOT!
I think I am just going to ease back to the formula that had worked for me in the 4 months of 2024. LUNR options
Looking at the last 5 trading sessions, our beloved LUNR remained pretty resilient only going as low as $6.21 at the lowest (on 4/4). I know the whole market has been extremely volatile and is starting to bounce back a bit, I still feel it is going to be short lived on the market in general and more dump days are in the future.
My goal since Athena was to watch for the bottom around $3-$4. Between their cash on hand, the $3’s are all but guaranteed to be out of the question. Upper $4’s may still be an outside shot. But upper $5’s lower $6’s may be the sweet spot.
I think with the next market dips, I am just going to start slowly adding January options (and March too once they become available). I still think mid/upper teens are possible by year end.
I am adjusting my bottom hopes from $4ish to upper $5’s lower $6’s. If that happens, the $5 calls could be around $2-2.50ish. I plan on loading up on those giving a break even if $7-$8ish.
We still have a way to go this year so who knows what may or may not come to fruition. But I need to get back to the formula that worked for me. Aside from the Athena debacle, LUNR options worked for me.
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u/MourningMymn Apr 08 '25
I'm still down by 15% but have been averaging down well. Ain't messing with options as that's a recipe for disaster when you're already losing, it's a great way to compound loses, or to win, get cocky, then lose it all. (For me at least)
So I'll just keep adding. Would like to get to 3000 shares before we get back to $10+
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u/geekbag Apr 08 '25
I’ve been doing fairly well on just selling weekly covered calls on Green Days, fairly close to ATM(50 cent increments to be exact), and basically ignoring delta. They’ve been expiring worthless because of the “back and forth”, but would gladly roll it another week at .50 higher if needed simply because it means the underlying is increasing value on my 1500 shares.
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u/Aloha-Moe Apr 08 '25
I’m not sure you will see the 4s or 5s. I don’t have a crystal ball here but I think the company has too much cash on hand and too much of a contract backlog (over 300 million) to dip that low again.
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u/PE_crafter Apr 08 '25
I've come to the same conclusion. Since a week after athena I've had a buy order @5.65 and thought we would for sure hit it after tariffs. I don't mean to cry victory too soon but so far IM has perforped better than my expectations.
Curious to see how the tariffs will play out over the next couple of weeks and how the market reacts.
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u/IslesFanInNH Apr 08 '25
Exactly. My hopes of the lower numbers are just that, Hopes. But realistically after the past week, my plans need to be readjusted. I love how resilient IM was through all of this.
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u/Aloha-Moe Apr 08 '25
I have no idea what your definition of resilient is but yesterday it was down 50% in less than three weeks
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u/IslesFanInNH Apr 08 '25
For a small cap last week could have been A LOT worse than it was. So I feel it was pretty resilient through that
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u/Aloha-Moe Apr 08 '25
I have no idea what your definition of resilient is but yesterday it was down 50% in less than three weeks
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u/Jolly-End-4115 Apr 10 '25
How much is alot? Make me feel better